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ALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wkALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wk Key earnings this week : Tuesday: Alphabet after close Visa Wednesday: Microsoft After close Meta Thursday: Amazon After close Apple Economic Calendar key events this week : Tuesday: 10:00 am Consumer confidence Wednesday: 8:30 am GDP Thursday: 8:30 am PCE index 8:30 am PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Core PCE index 8:30 am Core PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Friday: 8:30 am U.S. employment report As well of End of Month and Elections following Tuesday on Nov 5. Volatile week equals opportunity for day traders. Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
Possible forecast for BTC (Long-Term Movement)Just simply using fractals of BTC's own movements to map out what looks like a good chance of happening over the next 6 years. Crash in 2030 allowing for a new cycle of investors to jump in? Teasing between 87K and 13K allowing for high volatility and short/long sweeps. Provides room and time for the web3 and alt-coin market to gain momentum, usage, and volume. We will see! *NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE | FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY The market is impossible to predict. Anything can happen in the next 5 - 6 years. This is the most level-headed and realistic forecast IMO. What do y'all think? :) Comment your thoughts!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by wavehellofriend
1
ULTA Looking SPICY for an UP MOVE!ULTA is looking absolutely spicy for an up move! We're in a strong pivot zone (both internal and external) with increasing RVOL and high volatility. This is the recipe for a huge explosion. Just like I predicted NASDAQ:INTC 's explosive move before it happened earlier today! Now, we need to look for the continuation of increasing RVOL while the price stays in the pivot zone. Key Points to Watch: Strong Pivot Zone ✅ Increasing RVOL 📈 High Volatility ⚡ Get ready for a potential breakout! 💥
NASDAQ:ULTALong
by TradeTalkFarsi
Footlocker ( FL) has been resting from a fall and waiting LONG www.msn.com [/url ] FL is here on a 30 -minute chart. It fell badly after good earnings 3 weeks ago and has been resting in a narrow range for about half of that. A volatility squeeze released and some price action with corresponding increase in relative volume resulted. FL has about 50% upside to the price level before the last earnings. i am expecting a trade for 2-3 weeks realizing 50% profit. The news catalyst cited in the link above of an upside of 25% in an upgrade has put trader's eyes on this ticker. Mine are as well. It has reminded me to check on Nike.
NYSE:FLLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
NYCB could bounce back from the inflation report LONGNYCB on the 30 minute chart had an abrupt reaction to the inflation report. This is not a surprise. Many traders and investors know that banks make more money when the prime rate is lower because they do not need to pay much on savings accounts and deposit certificates. NYCB has been challenged and is more volatile than the average bank stock being a penny stock with hard fundamental issues. NYCB has reversed and the relative volume indicator shows the flip. Price has climbed back into the lower part of the high volume area of the profile which shows some bullish momentum. I see this as a risky long trade but still take it for the quick 6-7% upside back to the POC line of the volume profile. The stop loss will be the low pivot of the prior trading session.
NLong
by AwesomeAvani
VTYX- Buy the Pullback after a massive Bullish Surge LONGVTYX is an illustrative case in the trend is your friend. VTTX warmed up on Frbruary 20th and went parabolic on the next day and then faded while the moving averages and VWAP lines caught up. This is a buyable dip. It has now printed a couple of engulfing bullish candles. VTYX did less than a full 0.5 retracement as a sign of strength. I will take a long trade here targeting 16% upside to the top pivot of the recent price action. If the price can reach the target I will take half screening for higher-than-normal volatility. At present the volatility has mildly popped over the running mean telling me the continuation is on the ready. The plus here is earnings will report on March 24th so there is one month for traders to run the price up on this stock in that anticipation. Options are avaiable for call contracts expiring March 15th.
NASDAQ:VTYXLong
by AwesomeAvani
Options Blueprint Series Strangles vs. StraddlesIntroduction In the realm of options trading, the choice of strategy significantly impacts the trader's ability to navigate market uncertainties. Among the plethora of strategies, the Strangle holds a unique position, offering flexibility in unclear market conditions without the upfront costs associated with more conventional approaches like the Straddle. This article delves into the intricacies of the Strangle strategy, emphasizing its application in the volatile world of Gold Futures trading. For traders seeking a foundation in the Straddle strategy, refer to our earlier discussion in "Options Blueprint Series: Straddle Your Way Through The Unknown" - In-Depth Look at the Strangle Strategy The Strangle strategy involves purchasing a call option and a put option with the same expiration date but different strike prices. Typically, the call strike price is higher than the current market price, while the put strike price is lower. This approach is designed for situations where a significant price movement is anticipated, but the direction of the movement is uncertain. It's particularly effective in markets prone to sudden swings, making it a valuable strategy for Gold Futures traders who face volatile market conditions. Advantages of the Strangle strategy include its lower upfront cost compared to the Straddle strategy, as options are bought out-of-the-money (OTM). This aspect makes it a more accessible strategy for traders with budget constraints. The potential for unlimited profits, should the market make a strong move in either direction, further adds to its appeal. However, the risks include the total loss of the premium paid if the market does not move significantly and both options expire worthless. Therefore, timing and market analysis are critical when implementing a Strangle in the gold market. Example: Consider a scenario where Gold Futures are trading at $1,800 per ounce. Anticipating volatility, a trader might purchase a call option with a strike price of $1,820 and a put option with a strike price of $1,780. If gold prices swing widely enough in either direction, the strategy could yield substantial profits. Strangle vs. Straddle: Understanding the Key Differences The Strangle and Straddle strategies are both designed to capitalize on market volatility, yet they differ significantly in execution and ideal market conditions. While the Straddle strategy involves buying a call and put option at the same strike price, the Strangle strategy opts for different strike prices. This fundamental difference impacts their cost, risk, and potential return. Cost Implications: The Strangle strategy is generally less expensive than the Straddle due to the use of out-of-the-money options. This lower initial investment makes the Strangle appealing to traders with tighter budget constraints or those looking to manage risk more conservatively. Risk Exposure and Profit Potential: Although both strategies offer unlimited profit potential, the Strangle requires a more significant price move to reach profitability due to its out-of-the-money positions. Consequently, the risk of total premium loss is higher with Strangles if the anticipated volatility does not materialize to a sufficient degree. Market Conditions: Straddles are best suited for markets where significant price movement is expected but without clear directional bias. Strangles, given their lower cost, might be preferred in situations where substantial volatility is anticipated but with a slightly lower conviction level, allowing for larger market moves before profitability. In the context of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, traders might lean towards a Strangle strategy when expecting major market events or economic releases that could induce significant gold price fluctuations. The choice between a Strangle and a Straddle often comes down to the trader's market outlook, risk tolerance, and cost considerations. Application to Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures Implementing a Strangle in the Gold Futures market requires a keen understanding of underlying market conditions and volatility. Given the precious metal's sensitivity to global economic indicators, political instability, and changes in demand, traders can leverage the Strangle strategy to capitalize on expected price swings without committing to a directional bet. When applying a Strangle to Gold Futures, selecting the appropriate strike prices becomes crucial. The goal is to position the OTM options in a way that balances the potential for significant price movements with the cost of premiums paid. This balance is critical in scenarios like central bank announcements or inflation reports, where gold prices can experience sharp movements, offering the potential for Strangle strategies to flourish. Long Straddle Trade-Example Underlying Asset: Gold Futures or Micro Gold Futures (Symbol: GC1! or MGC1!) Strategy Components: Buy Put Option: Strike Price 2275 Buy Call Option: Strike Price 2050 Net Premium Paid: 11.5 points = $1,150 ($115 with Micros) Micro Contracts: Using MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures) reduces the exposure by 10 times Maximum Profit: Unlimited Maximum Loss: Net Premium paid Risk Management Effective risk management is paramount when employing options strategies like the Strangle, especially within the volatile realms of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures trading. Traders should be acutely aware of the expiration dates and the time decay (theta) of options, which can erode the potential profitability of a Strangle strategy as the expiration date approaches without significant price movement in the underlying asset. To mitigate such risks, it's common to set clear criteria for adjusting or exiting the positions. This could involve rolling out the options to a further expiration date or closing the position to limit losses once certain thresholds are met. Additionally, the use of stop-loss orders or protective puts/calls as part of a broader trading plan can provide a safety net against unforeseen market reversals. Such techniques ensure that losses are capped at a predetermined level, allowing traders to preserve capital for future opportunities. Conclusion The Strangle and Straddle strategies each offer unique advantages for traders navigating the Gold Futures market's uncertainties. By understanding the distinct characteristics and application scenarios of each, traders can make informed decisions tailored to their market outlook and risk tolerance. While the Strangle strategy offers a cost-effective means to leverage expected volatility, it also necessitates a disciplined approach to risk management and an acute understanding of market dynamics.   When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
8
UVXY the VIXX following ETF ShortUVXY the fear and volatility ETF ran up nearly 10% on the past trading day before retracing a bit all due to the quick about-face in the market at about 1PM New York time. It moved from the lows at the opening bell and let up with after hours profit taking. The relative volatility indicator shows the volatility pump and then dump. The dual signal RSI indicator shows the low time frame in blue dropping faster than the higher time frame in black. I see this as a good setup for a short trade that could yield half of the run-up over the next two trading days or 5% by next Tuesday, August 1. The stop loss set at the top wicking at 17.25 while the target the pivot low from which price began at 15.55. I have contemplated a put option on this but have not yet reviewed the options chain. Price action down may begin slow until price crosses under the POC line of the volume profile and then accelerate as price drops below the high volume area into relative volume voids.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by AwesomeAvani
14
BFRG AI penny stock ready to SHORTI have been in BFRG since the November earnings it has done 300% over that time almost all of it in one week. There are no options on this one. The RSI indicator tells me that it is now overextended and overbought. This is confirmed by a reversal signal triggering on this 60-minute chart with a mass index indicator below it. The topping candles with long wicks is another hint of the price action underway. I am closing my long position over 300% gain and instead look for a short with the profits to retrace from present price to to the 0.382 Fib retracement at about 5.65. Stop loss above the wicks at 7.7. I expect the trade to last this week and part of next.
NASDAQ:BFRGShort
by AwesomeAvani
Can NVTA reverse and rise?NVTA on the daily chart is in deep undervalued territory at the third lower Bollinger Band. It put in a green engulfing candle after a Doji candle. The TTM squeeze indicator fired a trigger while the lower TF RS line is about to cross the higer TF line and the 50 level. The MACD lines crossed while under the histogram which is a low amplitude green. The two most recent earnings reports were beats. Price ran 50% in late April and 60% in early July, I believe that another run is now possible for this long trade setup. Penny stocks like this have the ability to build momentum and upward volatility quickly.
NLong
by AwesomeAvani
FULC fades after a big move for a SHORT tradeFULC a biotechnology firm with a mixed earnings report early in the month just printed a big move and then stalled at the NY lunch - hour and faded. Will the fade continue or will there be an upward continuation? The 15 -minute chart seems to suggest a downtrend: 1, The volume profile shows heavy trading at the top. This could be short sellers and late-coming long trades. Once a trend down is underway, the short sellers will begin to take profits buying to cover while the long trades will sell at a loss. Probably at this level there will be more longs exiting than shorts until a substantial fall dictates the latter to buy to cover. 2. New short sellers will pile into the trade pushing price down while few new long traders will participate in accelerating the move down. 3. The relative strength on that indicator falling confirms the trend as does the Average Positive Directional Index falling with the combined falling as well. 4. The mass index indicator documents a reversal Accordingly, I will take a short trade and assist the trend down in my own little way. I may take a trade of 100 shares and then sell a call option. In the meanwhile, I will take a put option striking $5.00 for September 15th. I expect a decent realized profit from these trades in this at least currently high volatility biotechnology penny stock.
NASDAQ:FULCShort
by AwesomeAvani
SVXY rises on returning greed or trader confidence LONGSVXY runs inverse to UVXY- it was trending up for weeks but fell off the cliff with the VIXX spike on the fed news of the debt rating downgraded ( like the US posting an earnings miss) a 7% adjustment in almost no time. The analysis now is the red candlestick pattern is that of inside bars, a Doji then a green bar and a red. The zero-lag MACD has had a line cross under the histogram showing bullish divergence coming into that indicator. Price has come to rest for support on the one standard deviation line below the mean VWAP. From this analysis I will take a long trade targeting the POC line of the volume profile 87.5 as the final target for 66% of the trade after taking 33% off at the mean anchored vwap at 85.85 The stop loss today's pivot low of 82.85. This offers a very favorable risk to reward as trader positive sentiment recovers.
CBOE:SVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
SVXY a volatility ETF play LONGSVXY is the ETF shorting the VIXX ( and UVXY) which pumped hard this past trading session. It goes up when volatility goes down and vice-vera. VIXX is expected to drop after the trama in the market starting at 1PM when the Treasuries auctions were duds with little transactions occurring and the financial data reported in the late morning. SVXY dropped to its near term lows as the VIXX too off. SVXY bounced above the long term anchored mean black VWAP line which provides a logical stop loss at 85.65. The relative trend indicator shows the dip and early recovery while the RS indicator shows low and high time frame lines bottoming and reversing with the low blue line above the higher black time frame line. I see this as a long trade setup targeting the pivot highs in the near left of the price trend or about 90.5, A similar trade would be to short UVXY in a trend down.
CBOE:SVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL (3X Natural Gas ) Overnight Trade RecapAs a triple leveraged ETF BOIL is highly volatility and typically has a good range even if the overall price changes only a small amount from one day to the next. While these overnight day trades are typically conducted on the 3 or 5 minute time frame, here a 15- minute chart is shown. Because BOIL is tracking natural gas futures and the futures markets are around the clock , BOIL often has movement after-hours and in the pre-market while futures markets are active. In this example, the chart is dressed with double Bollinger band setup with deviations of 1.618 and 2 618 which are Fibonacci numbers. Relative volatility and relative volumes are indicated as well to be better attentive to reversals or trending amplitudes. In this example at about 12N on yesterday 7/24, price dropped out of the bands volume and volatility went red to green and the candlesticks formed a morning star pattern. This is the entry. The stop loss is placed just below the lowest bottoming wick in the pattern. Today, in the premarket, when the price rose to outside the upper trade zone and green bars on the volatility and volume indicators fell quickly, the trade was closed for a realized profit of 4.7%. About 90 minutes later, another long trade was set up for a more than 4% five hour day trade. Rinse and repeat DYODD !
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
FAS bullish leveraged EFT on the financial sectorFAS is one of the Direxion leveraged ETFs focused on the financial sector. As can be seen on the 15 minute the price action has had increasing volatility in the past month. Increasing volatility is the hallmark of the megaphone pattern ( a megaphone is a cone like hand held plastic device used in the old days before bullhorns and other things to amplify voice for cheers). FAS may have increasing volatility because of federal actions related to rate hikes, some bank failures and the banking industry adjusting to the " new normal" as higher rates become increasingly integrated into the financial system while still remaining viligent regarding a recession and its own set of complications. To play a megaphone traders will typically set a plan to buy on the lower support trendline hold for a short period and then sell at the upper resistance trendline. I will open a long trade on FAS given that it is presently near to support making for a suitable risk to reward ratio if putting a stop loss immediately below the support trendline.
AMEX:FASLong
by AwesomeAvani
PATH - Rising Volume Lifts PricesOn the 4H chart PATH was on a trend down in April. The strength momentum ( green band) was in a narrow range. In May as can be seen on the indicators, both volume and more especially volatility have increased significantly. The chart pattern is now that of an upward facing megaphone reflecting the volatility. The strength momentum band is much wider. Price is above the POC line of the volume profile reflecting a bullish dominance. Fundamentally, PATH is a player is the exploding AI subsector. Cathie Wood is quietly accumulating shares for her ETFs as are many other large portfolio investors. In summary, PATH appears to be an excellent long setup. Sitting in the shadows of NVDA, MU, TSM and others whose focus is hardware, PATH provides software and services it. Its path to hypergrowth and so price appreciation appears to be abundantly clear.
NYSE:PATHLong
by AwesomeAvani
UVXY Volatility Index ETFUVXY as shown in the 15 minute chart is slightly above the basis line on the Bollinger Bands as shown also on the BB indicator or Luxalgo. Price is slightly below the mean VWAP of the anchored VWAP situated in the fair value area as also confirmed by the volume profile and its POC line confluent with the VWAP bands. Given impending federal data reports and news, I expect volatility will rise. UVXY could have positive price action in the range of 10% in tomorrow's trading day which can be day traded or scalped.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
How to use Volume and Volatility to improve your tradesVolume and volatility are two important factors that can affect your trading performance. Volume measures the number of shares or contracts traded in a given period, while volatility measures the degree of price fluctuations. Understanding how these two factors interact can help you identify trading opportunities, manage risk, and optimize your entry and exit points. In this article, we will explain how to use volume and volatility to improve your trades in four steps: 1. Analyze the volume and volatility patterns of the market or instrument you are trading. Different markets and instruments have different volume and volatility profiles, depending on factors such as liquidity, supply and demand, news events, and market sentiment. For example, some markets may have higher volume and volatility during certain hours of the day, while others may have lower volume and volatility during holidays or weekends. You can use tools such as volume bars, volume indicators, average true range (ATR), and historical volatility to analyze the volume and volatility patterns of your chosen market or instrument. 2. Identify the volume and volatility signals that indicate a potential trade setup. Volume and volatility signals can help you confirm the strength and direction of a trend, spot reversals and breakouts, and gauge the momentum and interest of the market participants. For example, some common volume and volatility signals are: - High volume and high volatility indicate strong conviction and participation in a trend or a breakout. This can be a sign of a continuation or an acceleration of the price movement. - Low volume and low volatility indicate weak conviction and participation in a trend or a breakout. This can be a sign of a consolidation or a slowdown of the price movement. - Rising volume and rising volatility indicate increasing interest and activity in the market. This can be a sign of a potential reversal or breakout from a consolidation or a range. - Falling volume and falling volatility indicate decreasing interest and activity in the market. This can be a sign of a potential exhaustion or continuation of a trend. 3. Choose the appropriate trading strategy based on the volume and volatility conditions. Depending on the volume and volatility signals you observe, you can choose different trading strategies to suit the market conditions. For example, some possible trading strategies are: - Trend following: This strategy involves following the direction of the dominant trend, using volume and volatility to confirm the trend strength and identify entry and exit points. You can use trend indicators, such as moving averages, to define the trend direction, and use volume indicators, such as on-balance volume (OBV), to measure the buying and selling pressure behind the trend. You can also use volatility indicators, such as Bollinger bands, to identify periods of high or low volatility within the trend. - Reversal trading: This strategy involves identifying potential turning points in the market, using volume and volatility to confirm the reversal signals. You can use reversal patterns, such as double tops or bottoms, head and shoulders, or candlestick patterns, to spot potential reversals, and use volume indicators, such as volume profile or accumulation/distribution line (ADL), to measure the distribution or accumulation of shares or contracts at different price levels. You can also use volatility indicators, such as standard deviation or Keltner channels, to identify periods of overbought or oversold conditions that may precede a reversal. - Breakout trading: This strategy involves trading when the price breaks out of a consolidation or a range, using volume and volatility to confirm the breakout validity and direction. You can use support and resistance levels, such as horizontal lines, trend lines, or Fibonacci retracements, to define the boundaries of the consolidation or range, and use volume indicators, such as volume breakout or Chaikin money flow (CMF), to measure the inflow or outflow of money during the breakout. You can also use volatility indicators, such as average directional index (ADX) or Donchian channels, to measure the strength or weakness of the breakout. 4. Manage your risk and reward based on the volume and volatility expectations. Volume and volatility can also help you determine your risk-reward ratio, position size, stop-loss level, and profit target for each trade. Generally speaking, - Higher volume and higher volatility imply higher risk and higher reward potential. You may need to use wider stop-losses and profit targets to account for the larger price fluctuations. You may also need to reduce your position size to limit your exposure to the market. - Lower volume and lower volatility imply lower risk and lower reward potential. You may need to use tighter stop-losses and profit targets to account for the smaller price fluctuations. You may also need to increase your position size to enhance your returns from the market. By following these four steps, you can use volume and volatility to improve your trades in any market or instrument. Volume and volatility are dynamic factors that reflect the supply and demand forces in the market.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Education
by JS_TechTrading