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Volatilty

There Is No VIX "Suppression Program"VIX at the weekly view. I didn't have time to write this last week due to a hectic schedule. Better late than never, I guess. The VIX broke the weekly resistance and bounced from the pivot zone (white line). A smaller VIX spike is in progress. No, I am not expecting above 40 at all. Maybe mid-30s at the higher end. It would be nice if I am wrong so more opportunities can arise... With the relatively big contango going on between VIX and VX, you would need extreme, precise timing in VX long entries and exits... I don't like babysitting trades at all - where there is no margin for error. I prefer trades were I am allowed to have plenty of margin for error (easier trades). It seems that my red line still lives on which I am very surprised. It should expire in the next quarter... but it's hard to pinpoint. Even then, cash (or cash equivalents) is still still king. Why is that important? The biggest VIX spikes were driven due to 1 particular reason: excessive demand for hedges in SPX/ES options. There is no "suppression" program as conspiracy theorists claim on social media. There is no mysterious group (often called "they") that magically pull levers to control all markets. That type of thinking is a losing mentality. That mentality means the person lost a lot and wants to blame someone else other than himself/herself. It's like a grown adult blaming all their problems on their parents. It's a very unhealthy coping mechanism. As stated before, there are 3 reasons why the VIX won't spike hard despite big red days in the SPX or ES. 1) When short-term bond yields are high and in an uptrend (bond prices in a downtrend), cash becomes king (not trash). So, when positions are being sold, the money is then flowed into cash equivalents like treasury bonds and securities. That means there is less money going to hedges. VIX doesn't get a big spike if there less demand for hedges. 2) When the bonds are sinking (yields rising), there is also sector rotation from growth to cyclical stocks. More specifically, dividend value stocks become more attractive. That just means money is just rotating among sectors within the SPX/ES. There are little hedges being bought during this rotation... as it's just trading shares for shares. 3) Hedges were meant to protect gains in investments. If the investment is at a loss, then there is no need for a hedge since that would unnecessarily tie up more capital. When cash is king, it makes more sense just to sell for tax-loss harvesting (to offset gains for tax purposes) than to add more stress with hedges. Imagine if you had $1 million in gains this year and you then owe over $400,000 in taxes. Most likely, you would worry about how to lower your tax liability. Tax-loss harvesting is a common method. Hedges were meant to protect gains so the investments would reach the long-term capital gains tax rate (which is significantly lower). It is NOT an inverse index nor some sort of fear index (which the media loves to label it as). Normally, if I see something who treats it that way, it's a red flag that they never bothered studying the VIX and VX. The VIX loves to punish anyone who is impatient or anyone didn't bother to understand its mechanics. Imagine the VIX like piloting a commercial or transport plane. If you don't understand the flight control systems thoroughly, you will likely crash the plane.
CBOE:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions. are we trending or ranging? - a series of higher highs, higher lows - sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold discount? - we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block - Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38 managing trade? - Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75 - Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs. In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
5
VIX - Volatility is skyrocketingIn early August 2022, we warned that volatility would creep back into the market. Not long enough after that, the market started to sell off, and VIX skyrocketed from 20 USD to over 27 USD. Therefore, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD for VIX. However, we want to set a new medium-term price target at 35 USD. Illustration 1.01 The chart shows a bullish breakout above the resistance and two opening gaps on VIX. All of these developments are immensely bullish for VIX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
26
BTC forecastBTC is currently sitting at 40%ish of its all time high. While still below its overall price median, opportunities for it being undersold look good. Price is still climbing steadily though so reasonable soon, it will be considered overbought . Its 200 period daily moving averaging is still trending downward, while the 1 and 4 hour moving averages trend upward. This represents a short-term positive outlook where good quick profits could be gained. This is further supported by the very slow upward trend of the weekly moving averages. Caution should be excercised as it approaches its median price. Statistical probablity suggests price reversion will be come more likely the higher the price goes above the median. Considering the depth of the correction since the start of the downtrend from November 14th, 2021 onward, price is recovering relatively well, yet not too aggressively. A non-aggrewssive recovery really is a good sign for the market and a positive pulse of future growth potential. A strategy reasonably aggressive, yet properly balanced with defense, could bring some very good results.
Long
by RobertD7723
Factors currently influencing the CHF and opportunitiesThe Swiss Franc has seen some crazy moves since April. In the last quarter, we saw the CHF weaken on the onset of the Russian invasion. Then the SNB raised rates by whooping 50 bps for the first time in years. This led the Swiss government bond yields to spike with USDCHF weakened in days. Since then, speculators have pulled back rate hike bets in the face of an economic growth slowdown in Europe. with the Swiss 2 year bond yields back below 0%. So what does this mean for Swiss Franc crosses? USDCHF I expect the currency to weaken against the USD as traders bet that the Fed will maintain their tightening policy until inflation is below their 2% target. AUDCHF The RBA is also on a tightening cycle with the RBA expected to hike rates further to the end of 2022. In addition to this, the Australian economy seems to be resilient with data coming out of the country being strong. China's PBOC and CCP support for the economy is expected to provide support for the Aussie. CADCHF The oil linked Loonie is having support from higher energy prices and a BoC that is also on a rate hiking cycle. Technically speaking, the pair has gone back above the 100Day moving average and I expect it to test the cluster resistance level 0.769xx from 2014-2019 Other pairs that are interesting are: CHFJPY Major risk to short-selling the pair is that bond yield differentials are expected to remain high hence JPY strength looks like a long shot for Q3 NZDJPY Recovery of the Chinese economy is going to support the commodity-linked Kiwi. However, strength of the pair is not expected to be higher than that of the AUDCHF Summary CHF weakness brings a lot of opportunities. However, it's important to note that tailrisk to these trades exist. In the current environment, FX volatility is high and could wipe you out. Be safe out there
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
3
SKEW IndexDespite numerous mentions about the CBOE SKEW Index, we are no where near the 2018/2019 lows (which are the lowest readings on file for the past decade). Understanding how SKEW Index works, it's relationship to Vol Structures, and impact towards Gamma & Vega and how/what it implies by way of Institutional Hedging is another tool for the pros. Do your DD (due diligence) before reading someone's tweet, getting the reddit cliff notes version, and then deploying your personal capital...the markets are not easy, and complex relationships take time to understand all aspects and angles. MMs want you to believe everything is linear, but they just aren't!
S
by VeteranWS
Swing Trade - Use the volatility to your advantageThe cryptomarket is historically volatile and by using this volatility to our advantage in trading are we able to make big gains. Entry Price: 0.291 Price 1: 0.388 Price 2: 0.487 Price 3: 0.625 The price is expected to drop further and reach the price level of 0.256, at this level is the price expected to bounce following the low of the KC. This prediction is made through studying the price movement in the past which has given us higher high which combined with the RSI having speed downwards and the volatility given in the chart would this price bounce be likely to happen. No Financial advice. Education purpose.
Long
by vf_investment
1
What Are You Going To Do Now, VIX? 8/10/2020VIX at the 4 hour view. The VIX did something a little unusual. The VIX poked below tier II support below, but closed right above tier II support (second dotted green line). In addition, the VVIX closed right above 110. The VIX refuses to give up since the Put/Call Ratio was around 0.66 today. Normally, below 0.75 is considered extreme on the buy side. However, we are living in abnormal times now. This means the VIX recognizes the Put/Call Ratio as a possibly buy climax and exhausting the supply of buyers. So, the VIX acts as both a fear AND greed gauge. You just have to interpret it. You can tell if it's greed when the VIX increases while the ES increases as well. I found out why on the ES. To my ES post, the ES has been in an ascending wedge for several days now. The lower intraday range is what's lowering the VIX. In addition, high liquidity is also pinning the VIX down since the ES refuses to have a decent pullback. Interestingly, the ascending wedge on the ES should be resolved either tonight or tomorrow. I had a date range for the volatility jump on the VIX between 8/10 to 8/12. I don't think this is a coincidence at all. The ES is primed for a correction. However, high liquidity levels on the MCI and NFCI indicate that the correction will be delayed until liquidity levels finally reach weakened levels. That doesn't happen overnight. That usually takes weeks, possibly months to get there. I would not hold my breath for it. What does that mean for the VIX this week? If the ES pulls back immediately and not do a blow off top pattern, then the measured move of the pullback would be about 80-90 points. Due to high liquidity levels, volatility jumps (more like a hop) would only last 1-2 days. I'm not expecting a "bigger" volatility jump until the ES reaches the previous all-time highs. Why? Bears are looking for a double top pattern. But again, I am not expecting a crash. The trend will be over all up until liquidity levels actually reach weak levels. What will it take for liquidity to lower faster? Please see my ES post earlier.
TVC:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
3
Peercoin RSI Divergence TradeWe're looking for a hard bounce in this long trade. Market cap is 35 million, circulating supply is 24.3 million. Peercoin price has been continually punished but the market recently was aggressively oversold, I'm looking at this as a long-term reversal opportunity. Volume today is a half million dollars, which is pretty thin, and this might also suggest a reversal as selling force evaporates and the buyers take over. The coin is flirting with it's all time lows from 2014, if you believe that the project is going to survive, these are attractive prices to buy and hold, for a few weeks or a few years. I like to buy assets that I feel will be profitable across multiple timeframes, that way if I miss a market event or things don't go exactly as planned, I've still got a margin of safety that guarantees the preservation of principal and that will allow me to hold it forever and know that I'll make money.
PLong
by Piptocurrency