Is it finally time for a vol event?I know everyone thinks volatility is dead because it largely hasn't moved for the past year, however, I think that could be changing in the near future.
The market has largely felt similar to how it did before the covid drop. People ignoring the risks right in front of them and blindly thinking the market will continue up.
The chart is telling me it might be time for volatility to pick up. Maybe Thursday or Friday this week?
If we do get a vol event, I think it'll be a sharp one, with ~100% rise likely up into the $40 resistances. Let's see if it plays out.
I bought a lot of calls just incase it happens.
Volitilityindex
The curious case for a $28 VIX trip... FUD about to hit markets?FUD FUD FUD, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. The 3 letters every trader on the street should know. No matter if you are dealing with Cryptocurrencies, Stocks or Forex, no one wants to wake up to an overnight position hit by FUD.
The VIX has long been known as the leading indicator as to the sentiment of the markets. It is known as the fear index and right now it is unreasonably low compared to recent history and current events. I mean we did just arrest our previous President and current candidate for President. Away from politics we also found ourselves in a currency war with the BLOC using the Chinese Yuan for settlements over the US Dollar. Well aside from economics, we still are funding our ongoing proxy war in Ukraine with the only other 2 superpowers on the planet. Well, Away from politics, economics, and war.... Oh wait, yeah the data on our economy came in pretty meh (not impressive).
So why in the world would the VIX be representing so much strength? Careful, you are starting to think for yourself and our TV overlords don't like that so much. But you are starting down the right track.
The VIX should be easily in the low to mid 20's but instead its flexing at 19.01?!? For reference the 50 Moving Average is 20.63 and the midline of the current Bollinger Bands is 22.04 with the low band being 16.83 and the high band being 27.25. If I was thinking about the next few weeks I would probably think that our world right now is providing significant enough risk to justify a trip northward towards the midline @ 22.04 but actually even higher to the high band of 27.25. Recently we touched 29 multiple times in recent weeks but immediately rejected and shot down to the 19.01 where we sit currently. Rejecting off a ceiling once, twice and even sometimes three times is common but I probably wouldn't need very many fingers to count the times an Index pegged a ceiling 4 times and didnt break through it significantly.
The market has stayed propped up on hopium for long enough and now its time to start pricing in reality. All is NOT well. I don't view this as a doomsday scenario at all but we need to move closer to reality. I see 28 as a start, it would signify the markets beginning to accept reality and no longer rely on the Buy the Dip hopium that retail investors bankrupted themselves on over the last 2 years.
$28 Vix is what i see coming.
Just documenting my own thoughts from my own charts. Dont mind me. Most likely not a human anyway.
VIX BULL$VIX is creating a Bullish 1-2-3 Pattern at its previous market structure bottom (Support marked by the grey box). Price is currently consolidating at support and what historic price action tells us is that price usually has a period of consolidation known as a pullback or "Retracement" before it continues in its overall direction. I have price returning to an older higher-low Level @25.50 and beyond.
Bearish Divergence on S&P Volatility at PCZ of Bearish BatThis Bearish Bat would have me believe that the VIX Bullish Butterfly Rally will come to an end and go back down to atleast the area of $28.50 but i wouldn't be surprised if it went into the lower $20s if this played out.
For more context this was formerly a Bullish trade Setup but now it's reached the target and we are looking for a retrace downward again.
Check the relatted idea below for further context of the previous trade.
VIX: Nuetral leaning Long Over all weakening support for the broader markets, aside from media frenzied pharma and the NASDAQ's push behind earnings likely to see some sell off today. Directional movement showing bearish indications, will watch supports and resistances closely today along with charted trend lines on the cube. Initial overlay on 30d/3Hr analysis. Starting to see more volatility support as fear and uncertainty enter the space again. Watching 2y, 10y Bonds, copper, crude as well as rough rice as indicators for bearish plays. Expecting some reversal on precious metals primarily gold, may be a good time to pick up some short positions over the next 2-3 days.
UVXY Waiting For Negative Macro Catalyst, THEN Huge PUMP!We have a very large descending triangle on the monthly! Playing this out will depend on some continuation of negative news (such as Coronavirus vaccines not working), global recession, etc.
The Chinese economy is on the verge of recession, they have a fake economy built on a deck of cards that's ready to fall.
If you don't think China is fake as F*&k with economic reporting, then go buy yourself a ghost city apartment.
VIX S1 at 16.50 and S2 and 15. Long TVIX playCBOE:VIX I don't play the VIX often, but the market seems overextended/euphoric and due for a pullback, with the VIX nearing some established levels over Support. It's potentially a good play. I like to play wide zones to allow myself a larger margin of error, but if 16.50 to 15 is too wide of an area for you, wait till Support 2.
VIX 1 Hr (SPY help)If the bold pink line failes then we will see the bottom of the channel in the VIX and the SPY races to 280 area. If the Green line wins then you will see the SPY fall and VIX will be off to the races.
The TTM Squeeze will determin if we are going to head higher or lower but we are fixing to make a moe either way
If the TTM indicator starts heading above Zero in a significant way we should see this run and if it goes below zero the VIX will fall.
I have SPY puts, so I think the VIX is set to run.
Also, we have the inevitable .618 Fib level on the bigger run and the most recent run which resembers the Green and purple lines as well.
That Simple.
75% chance up during next week, 25% threat of bear market AMZNThere is a chance that the next week will see a recovery, this is based on several Sell Offs in 2016, everything will recover the next week, however, VIX is still up, so everything will depend on the general market trend. WATCH US Politics VERY CARFULLY, Buy the dip, but If you don't want to take the risk, watch the rest of the market, maybe WED of next week.
RUT Put Calendar (Volatility Play)With the moved down in volatility the last couple of days and RVX (Russell Volatility Index) almost at the year lows a Put calendar seems like a pretty safe bet. I will be buying the Nov 1230 Put and selling the Oct 1230 Put. Looking to close it early as soon as we get a volatility spike.