JSE:SHP Shoprite Trading in a rangeAfter a selling climax (SC) in January price has formed a trading range (TR). Currently, the price is ranging defined by the SC and automatic rally (AR). Volume is reducing phase B. Currently the bottom of the range is being tested. Once the test is complete and TR holds the top of the range could be tested. However, it looks like a large base is being formed that may take some time to resolve.
Volume Indicator
LTCUSD 1D TRIANGLE BREAKOUT TRADESTriangles, Ascending Triangle, Descending Triangles and Ranges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles and ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending volume bars and descending atr line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size.
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
JSE:MND Mondi Markdown ContinuesAfter a breakdown of the upsloping TR (see post below) we have had a back up to the range but now price is starting to be marked down more actively.
JSE:OMU Old Mutual Markup In Phase D StartingOld Mutual has been in a TR after a big drop in October 2018. We had a spring on high volume and now a test on lower volume indicating that supply has dried up. Looking for the markup in phase D to the top of the TR range. After a consolidation at the top of the TR, I will be watching for a breakout and phase E to start.
JSE:FFB Fortress Reit Waiting for the Jump Across the CreekFortress Has been consolidating since a selling climax in March 2018 (See previous post). This consolidation looks to be an accumulation TR. We have seen a high volume spring and a test in phase C following the Wyckoff principles. I am now watching for a jump across the creek in Phase D (jump across the 200 day MA).
JSE:AFH Alexander Forbes Bucking the TrendI have been following the accumulation range of Alexander Forbes (See post below). Price has consolidated at the top of the TR, which is also the yearly pivot point. It has pushed above with some high volume selling pressure but remained above the TR (See the negative divergence with the volume RSI and volume spike). In spite of the week market conditions it still looks as if this is about to start the markup and is being defined by the 50 day MA and clear upward stride.
JSE:SAP SAPPI Markdown ContinuesI have been following the distribution of Sappi since November 2018 (See post and updates below). Currently, the markdown is actively playing out and following an established downward stride. We have had a small redistribution area but the price is again pushing lower.
JSE:FFB Fortress B Markup in Phase D to Start?FFB seems to have undergone accumulation since March of 2018 and high volume today could indicate a markup in #D could start. The accumulation is noted by the low volatility low volume range. Today we have seen a high volume spring in the larger and smaller trading range (TR) that has formed.
JSE:J200 Top 40 Effort without responseLast week there was some high volume (effort) but with no progress in price (response). This indicates that some selling is taking place. After breaking the channel there has been a low volume pullback. Now after a retest, there is some volume and now I am expecting a decline in the next week.
XRPUSD 1H EFC INDICATOR FINDS QUICK BURST OF VOLUME/VOLATILITYEFC Indicator can find quick bursts of price movement
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JSE:CPI Capitec Re-accumulation or DistributionAfter breaking the upward stride and going overbought Capitec is now consolidating. It is busy breaking back into the trend channel. After a buying climax (BC), automatic reaction (AR) and secondary test (ST) in phase A we now have seen an upthrust (UT) in phase B. This is showing some strength but was on low volume and divergence with the volume RSI. Now to watch how the TR develops to see if it is a distribution or re-accumulation. For now, I am expecting the price to range for some time.
JSE:HAR Harmony Looking WeakAfter showing signs of strength (SoS) (see the previous post) the tide seems to have turned and we are seeing some signs of weakness (SoW). Volatility has increased to the downside. The smaller TR that has formed at the top of the larger TR is also showing an increase in volatility indicating distribution. With the rally in gold, the rally in harmony has been poor and could not break the highs. This looks like there is some downside to come.
JSE:J200 Top40 Waiting for the ElectionThe Top40 has had a great run since the start of the year. On the way up there were two occasions when institutional supply entered the market (seen by the high volume) but was unable to stop the advance. Now the market has reached the highs were previous institutional supply occurred. However, the volume has declined in the leadup to the elections. Trading volume can be expected to be low until the elections are over and the market can decide a direction. Something to note is that the RSI has made a negative reversal and once volume returns to the market we could have a volatile decline.