Stock Market Logic Series #12
TradingView is so awesome that they let you change any piece of the chart .
You can use this chart template for visual clarity.
FYI, all my chart templates, are for visual clarity trading purposes, you can choose anyone that looks good for your eyes.
So in this chapter in the series #12 lets see what we have here.
1 - The trendline is still alive.
2 - On the correction, you can see that there is a high volume on the upside. So it means that the puppet master is buying.
3 - You could see that there are 3 down candles, on increasing volume, but their spread is smaller and smaller. So it means that the puppet master also buying on the downside, also, stops where hit there strongly, and many people stopped out directly into the hands of the puppet master, classic puppet master move.
4 - The biggest volume is on the up side ! since this is the last (recent) piece of information, this is what counts! so currently, the chart is LONG biased.
5 - Crack pattern AWARENESS- if the price will test the low, it will be the crack pattern and then the price can go down up until $105 again. It will also be a break of trendline so it makes sense that there will be a fast SHORT move. But if the price goes to test $135 and then makes $140 push, it will be a failure of the crack pattern, which increases even more dramatically the LONG bias. WHY? Because if it is short... the crack pattern should materialize... since it can't materialize... it means it is not short, so it is LONG.
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I already showed the same exact logic, in AMD, failed crack pattern (in the past posts).
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2 & 3 & 4 Examplify beautifully my concept of FORCE of the puppet master.
Volumeanalysis
LTC/USDT Trading Scenario UpdateAgainst the backdrop of overall optimism in the cryptocurrency market during November and early December, LTC showed confident growth, reaching a price level of $147.32. This was followed by a correction exceeding 40%.
Interestingly, the asset's price retraced and rebounded from the upper boundary of a consolidation range that has persisted for over two years. This range has become an accumulation zone for a significant number of participants and continues to attract new ones, as LTC is trading in close proximity to this level.
Given the current dynamics, further developments in the altcoin market could be anticipated, with the potential for a strong upward trend and a possible multi-fold growth.
Why NVDA was not a good candidate for Selling Short last weekBy Friday last week in NASDAQ:NVDA , Support of the Market created an inside day to reversal rebound white candle that engulfed, indicating that the minor drop down out of this trading range was just that: a minor slip of price to below fundamental levels.
Volume was well above average and Volume Oscillators--TSV, TTVA or Chaikin Osc--ticked up along with money inflows. Never assume that a break to the downside from a stable sideways trend is going to continue down. Inside days are no longer a "sure thing" for selling short.
Along with support from a bottom formation, the minor nudge before the black candle that dropped below the low of the sideways trend also was a factor in determining that NVDA was not going to run down. Sell short risk was exceedingly high based on these factors.
ALRS 1D Long Investment Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade
- short impulse
+ volumed T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar close entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
Take profit
1/3 - 1 to 2 R/R
1/3 - 1D T2 / 1M T2
1/3 - 1/2 of 1Y
Calculated affordable stop limit
Take profit
1/3 - 1 to 2 R/R
1/3 - 1D T2 / 1M T2
1/3 - 1/2 of 1Y
Monthly CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ volumed TE / T1
+ support level
+ volumed Sp
+ test"
Yearly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ T2 level
+ support level
+ manipulation"
ADA - Gearing Up for a Breakout?After an impressive rebound from the trend-based Fibonacci extension 1:1 at $0.7655, ADA has been consolidating between $0.92 and $0.85 for the past two days. As the new week begins, today's wOpen at $0.8834 is a critical support level, perfectly aligning with the key level at $0.8806. Holding above these levels reinforces a bullish outlook.
Key Insights and Trade Setups:
Support Zones to Watch:
$0.8834 (wOpen) and $0.8806 (Key Level).
Maintaining above these levels keeps the bullish structure intact.
Long Setup Options:
A great long opportunity was from today’s wOpen ($0.8834).
Alternatively, wait for a retracement to the golden pocket at $0.8877 of this current wave.
R:R: 2.5, a solid potential reward for the risk taken.
Target for Long Trades:
Aim for the Fibonacci 0.618 level at $0.9448, which aligns with the daily resistance level.
This zone also represents a high-liquidity area where short sellers may be forced to exit positions.
Pattern Confirmation:
The potential formation of an Adam and Eve pattern strengthens the bullish case. Confirmation comes above $0.9155, suggesting further upside.
ADA/USDT Trading Scenario UpdateThe asset has shown a strong upward trend, rising from $0.3190 to $1.3264, indicating increased market interest. This growth was accompanied by higher trading volumes, which confirms its strength. Currently, ADA is in a correction phase, which has already retraced over 40% from its peak.
The key POC (Point of Control) level of the current local uptrend cycle is at $0.5979. This volume-based level could serve as support and potentially mark the beginning of a reversal. For investors, this represents a good entry point to purchase the asset at a more favorable price before a potential altseason.
It’s important to monitor the price action near this level, as its reaction could determine the further direction of movement.
Odds favor the long side on BTC
You can clearly see that there was a volume spike that absorbed the selling of the weak hands, now you see that the volume returns to the direction of the trend up, so people are not willing to sell Bitcoin at a lower price, so the puppet master has to increase his bidding price so he can get filled after Trump WON the election.
Add to it that the price was consolidating for half a year and holding its value near the top.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/20/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Beyond Basic Candlestick Pattern AnalysisLearning to Recognize Who Is Controlling the Stock Price
There is a plethora of training on Candlestick Pattern Analysis and interpretation, and yet this remains one of the most problematic areas for Technical Traders who want to trade at the expert level.
Once the basics of Japanese Candlestick Patterns are understood, it is time to move up to the next tier of analysis. That is being able to recognize not only where a pattern is, but also who forms that pattern, why they are capable of creating that pattern, what automated orders generate that pattern, and which Market Participant Groups react or chase that pattern.
Nowadays it has become critical to include Volume with Candlestick Analysis, because this provides the basis for recognizing which Market Participant Group created that candle pattern.
Candlestick Pattern Analysis at the expert level involves more than just one to three candles. Instead it includes a larger group of candles in the near term. This is what I call "Relational Analysis." This is especially useful for Swing Traders, Momentum Traders, Velocity Traders, Swing Options Traders, and Day Traders using Swing Style Intraday action.
The NYSE:RAMP chart is an excellent example of a Candlestick Pattern for Swing Style Trading.
See where High Frequency Traders (HFTs) took control of price, and gapped the stock down for one day on extreme volume. Selling did not continue the following two days, and Volume was above the Moving Average, but much lower than the High Frequency Traders' spiking Volume pattern.
This was the first accumulation level for this stock. Dark Pools started buying the stock even though High Frequency Traders were selling, since they typically miss this initial buy mode of the giant Institutions.
High Frequency Traders typically create the final gap down to the low which, if it reverses quickly, indicates a Buy Zone area for the Dark Pools. These patterns are what I call "Shifts of Sentiment." They happen in bottom formations where buying is generally dominated by the Largest Institutions' quiet accumulation.
The next phase will be when Professional Traders and then High Frequency Traders discover the Dark Pool accumulation. The bottom is not complete, but it shifts sideways if more Dark Pools decide to buy.
Stock Analysis Report: Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.Overview:
The chart presents a technical analysis of Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. on a daily timeframe. The stock shows a recovery pattern with a visible RSI divergence, indicating a potential bullish reversal.
Key Observations:
1.RSI Divergence:
A bullish divergence is identified as the price made lower lows while the RSI formed higher lows, signaling waning bearish momentum and the likelihood of an upward move.
2.Critical Support Levels:
Immediate support is marked at ₹1,273.35, corresponding to the 200-day moving average.
A strong base exists at ₹1,199.40 and ₹1,101.55, which acted as previous demand zones.
3.Potential Resistance Zones:
Initial resistance levels are observed at ₹1,310.80 and ₹1,346.60.
Major resistance is seen at ₹1,403.25 and ₹1,450.35, where the stock could face selling pressure.
4.Buying Strategy:
Enter long positions only if the price stabilizes above ₹1,273.35, confirming support.
Watch for a breakout above ₹1,310.80 for momentum trades targeting higher resistance levels.
5.Volume Analysis:
Increased volume on recent upward moves supports the bullish sentiment.
Monitor volume patterns for confirmation of breakouts or trend reversals.
Conclusion:
Aurobindo Pharma shows signs of a potential bullish reversal. Traders should closely observe the ₹1,273.35 support level and enter only upon confirmation. Targets are placed at ₹1,310.80, ₹1,346.60, and beyond. Implement proper risk management to account for potential volatility.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/18/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Technical Analysis on Kadant (KAI)Kadant ( KAI ) has maintained a clear upward trend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Throughout its bullish phase, the stock experienced periodic pullbacks between 20% and 30%.
After recently hitting its all-time highs, the stock is currently undergoing a retracement, approaching potential support zones.
Bullish Scenario
The first potential support levels are close to the current price:
SUP 1 around $304
POC 1 around $320
Another possible support zone is POC 2 near $280, which could provide a significant base if the price continues to drop.
Bearish Scenario
For a bearish outlook, key levels to monitor include:
A breakdown below POC 1 ($320)
A trendline break (green line)
A breach of POC 2 ($280), indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/17/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
GBPCHF is all set to continue its downward movement!The price is moving down within a descending channel. Right now, it bounced off the upper limit of the channel and hit a key weekly resistance. A candlestick pattern with a long upper wick and a small body has formed. Plus, the price has formed a triple top with lower highs. A short trade looks good based on price action and backed by volume analysis, which clearly shows a clear exhaustion of buyers. GBPCHF is moving towards the major volume activity price range around 1.12. On top of that, volume analysis backs this up, indicating that buyers are getting stronger and ready to push the price down.
Time Frame: daily
Idea support:
- Price action
- Volume Analysis
- Trend analysis
Virtuals Protocol: +16,850% Surge Nearing Its End?Virtuals Protocol has experienced an astronomical +16,850% surge in price over the past 164 days, marking a parabolic advance that appears to be nearing exhaustion. Price action suggests that the final 5th wave of this bullish cycle may be completing, raising the question: Is Virtuals Protocol set for a correction, or is there still upside potential?
Key Observations:
1.) End of the 5th Wave:
The Elliott Wave count indicates that the asset is likely completing the final 5th wave of a large bullish cycle.
Parabolic moves of this magnitude typically end with a sharp correction as profit-taking accelerates.
2.) Weekly RSI Overbought:
The RSI on the weekly timeframe is at 95, signaling extreme overbought conditions.
Such elevated RSI levels are unsustainable and often precede corrections to reset market momentum.
3.) 6 Consecutive Bullish Weekly Candles:
A string of 6 green weekly candles suggests strong bullish momentum but also hints at exhaustion as buyers may struggle to sustain such momentum.
4.) Fibonacci Target and Weekly Open Confluence:
Using a Fibonacci retracement from the current wave, the 0.618 level aligns perfectly with the Weekly Open (wOpen) at $2.711.
This confluence zone serves as a strong short-term take-profit target for short sellers or a potential re-entry point for bulls looking for a correction.
Outlook:
Bearish Scenario: The completion of the 5th wave and the extreme overbought RSI suggest a correction is imminent. A retrace towards the 0.618 Fib level ($2.711) is a highly probable scenario.
Bullish Continuation: For further upside, the price must consolidate and find fresh buying volume to support continuation beyond the current highs.
Conclusion:
Virtuals Protocol is flashing clear signs of exhaustion, with extreme weekly RSI levels and a completed Elliott Wave cycle. Traders should watch the $2.711 zone closely as a potential correction target, with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and Weekly Open providing strong confluence.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/16/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
$NYSE:QBTS Consolidating between $4 and $5NYSE:QBTS appears to be consolidating between $4 and $5 a share. Lots of buzz right now in the quantum computing space. D-wave has been in the headlines quite a bit along with NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:RGTI These stocks are generating a staggering amount of daily volume. Which is great when attracting the FOMO crowd!
Looking for a breakout after this closes above the recent highs of $5.38 (with relatively higher volume). If it misses the breakout then I suspect we're in for another cycle of down/up oscillation.
Primary support is at ~$4.15 with the secondary major support at ~$2.77
secondary.
If this bounces down prior to a breakout, there will probably be opportunities to buy on a dip probably in the $4.20 - $4.60 range.
As with anything with a lot of volatility, hang on to your seats!
GBPUSD set to continue downtrend after correction!The price has unsuccessfully completed its second attempt to break through zone of interest and resistance producing a second bounce, supported by an important Fibonacci level. Candlestick formation indicating a potential trend reversal.
Time Frame: daily
Idea support:
- Price action
- Volume Analysis
- Trend analysis
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/13/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.