Bitcoin (BTC) in 2023: Transitioning into a Bull Cycle High-Level Overview:
As we progress through 2023, it appears that Bitcoin (BTC) has transitioned into a cycle impulse wave, a bull run in a five-wave structure, from the bottom of the recent bear market.
Within this cycle impulse wave, we are currently in the first primary wave, which is projected to climb up to the 39-40k range.
However, this upward trajectory is not without potential roadblocks. Following this initial surge, we can expect a primary Wave 2 correction that could pull BTC down to the 22-24k range by the end of the year.
Short-Term Details:
Drilling down further into the structure of this first primary impulse wave, we are currently in the intermediate Wave 5. This wave could potentially drive BTC's value up to the 39-40k mark by the end of September.
As part of this intermediate wave 5, we are presently in a minor Wave 2 correction. This correction phase may see BTC's price finding support at the 28-29k level.
Following this correction, we anticipate a strong minor impulse Wave 3, potentially pushing BTC up to the 1.618 Fibonacci level, which equates to around 36k.
Subsequent to Wave 3, minor Wave 4 is predicted to retrace but should not drop below the top of Wave 1, thereby maintaining a support level of over 31.5k.
Finally, after this minor Wave 4 correction, we should see the final push of minor Wave 5. This final wave within the intermediate wave sequence could see BTC hitting the 39-40k target.
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Disclaimer: This analysis uses the Elliott Wave Theory, volume profile, and Fibonacci retracement levels for technical analysis. However, financial markets are inherently unpredictable and influenced by numerous factors. This forecast is not financial advice but an interpretation of potential market movements. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance when making investment decisions.
Please keep in mind that the Elliott Wave Theory is highly subjective and open to interpretation. In addition, real-world markets are rarely as neat and predictable as theoretical models, so anomalies and irregular patterns do happen.
Volumeanalysis
GBPNZD SHORT SETUP AFTER EURO NEWSOn gbpnzd, we have a bearish setup after the trendline breakout this morning following the Eurozone PMI data. The price is heading towards the 2.0485 area, where we have a POC (Point of Control), which is a specific entry point for a long trade if the price reaches and bounces from the POC, representing the highest concentration of orders. In that zone, the market could rebound with a target at 2.0850. Leave a like to support our work, comment, and share your analysis. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GBP/USD BULLISH SETUP DURING FED WEEKRegarding GBP/NZD, we have identified a bearish setup with decreasing highs and lows. It's immediately noticeable that the price has dropped over 320 pips, equivalent to 2.5%, in the last two weeks, indicating that the market is already pricing in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.
In my view, I expect the price to potentially reach the level of 1.2812, where we have a Fibonacci level, which could be a possible reversal point with the necessary confirmations, of course. Subsequently, the price could turn long with a target of 1.31. This is also supported by the fact that the pound is expected to recover economically in the coming months, bringing in very positive macroeconomic data for the currency.
Let me know what you think in the comments. Happy trading and have a great weekend, everyone, from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
WHAT'S HAPPENING? ⚡️ SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN LOCKSTEP 😢In this video I explain the current state of the Bitcoin market as seen through the lens of the latest pattern found in the forecast model, "The Lightning Volume". The Federal Reserves interest rate policy continues to create considerable headwinds for the Bitcoin price. When could it end? Watch this video and let me know your thoughts? Thanks for watching!
HOW TO: Lesson 2 - Learn from the Master's Wyckoff and WeisThis video explains the Change in Behavior concepts as well as Effort vs. Result and how Speed Index is filling the gap of quantifying these concepts.
Enjoy!
PS. I am really sorry about the mouse I had some windows 11 issue during recording.
GBP/NZD POSSIBLE SETUP H1 - SHORT TRADERegarding GBPNZD, we have a bearish market with a very strong New Zealand dollar after negative data on AUD overnight. Currently, the market is retracing towards 2.0550, where we have a forex48 block, our personal strategy. In this area, it will be crucial to wait for a confirmation on the M15 chart before entering a short position with a target at 2.0495. Let me know what you think. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
PLUG rises on EV Sector strengthPLUG on the daily chart demonstrates a VWAP breakout having first trended down
into the lowermost VWAP bands from anchored VWAPs originating in November 2022
and January 2023. Fundamentally, PLUG is burning cash but less of it with each
succeeding earnings report. In the past two months price has ascended through a
couple of VWAP lines and has now crossed the mean VWAP in a sign of bullish momentum.
Price bounced up from the POC line of the volume profile in a demonstration of bullish
buying power and buyers defending that support level.
The dual RSI indicator shows that the 3-hour time frame RSI line in blue crossed over the
slower weekly time frame RSI line in black about June 28 and they are both above the
50 level is another bullish sign. On June 30, the zero-lag MACD had its lines descend to the
horizontal zero line and bounce upward over a positive histogram. The relative volume
indicator shows increasing overall volumes with the mean rising from 15M to 26M daily
overall. The presumption is that increasing volume supports price action while decreasing
volumes would cause price and volatility stagnation.
From this analysis, I conclude the time is right for a long-swing trade of PLUG. i will
zoom into a 15-30 minute time frame seeking a pivot low from which to enter using
a stop loss of 12.15 and targeting those upper aVWAP bands/lines.
NFLX builds more momentum LONG for nowNFLX has been trending up for three weeks. If the trend is getting old it is now showing.
Based on a set of two anchored VWAP bands originating June 1 and June 15, Netflix is
breaking through VWAP bands from the lower -2 standard deviation lines to the +2 standard
deviation lines and nearly the third upper deviation lines. This is a clear and convincing
VWAP breakout with buyers in overwhelming control Trading volume today is about 4 or 5
times the running average and about 1M. Volume support for price action is obvious.
The dual time frame RSI shows 1 hr TF RSI (blue line) shot up crossed over the daily TF RSI
(black line) and is retreating a bit. The daily RS is below 80 and still trending up.
The MACD shows a classical bullish momentum pattern with the lines well above the histograms.
Overall NFLX has the risk of overextension and possible topping with a fade afterwards.
The mass index indicator shows a value into the reversal zone but until the value rises and the
drops to 26.5, the trend is still intact. I will take a long trade here, hoping for a quick
5% ROI between now and the end of the week and about 50% on an options trade with
a strike of $500 expiring July 28th which I will close upon a confirmed reversal and use
the profits realized therefrom to buy a put option to take a ride down.
EUR/USD DOUBLE SETUPS BEFORE US RATESOn EURUSD, we have a bearish setup that is approaching the 1.1150 area, where a price reversal could occur as we have a FVG (Failed Vertical Gains). However, the price could retrace first to the 1.1217 area, where we have a Forex48 block, indicating a potential zone for a short entry. In both situations, we need the appropriate confirmation before entering the market. Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USD/CAD LONG AND SHORT SETUP AFTER NEWSOn USDCAD, we have a neutral - bearish setup today. The price has been bouncing off a support level for hours. At the moment, however, it has not yet confirmed a long entry. Therefore, there are two hypothetical scenarios. The market provides confirmation on M15 and H1 at the level of 1.3170 after the US data, or the price drops below the support level towards 1.3090. Let me know what you think. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CPRT Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: when price clears 89.79
Volume: with daily volume greater than 2.6M
Target: 94.50 area
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 88.23 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward.
This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
USDJPY - WILL THE FED INCREASE INTEREST RATES?USDJPY is currently showing a bullish trend, supported by the increase in sentiment among American consumers over the past month. At the moment, the price is at an interesting zone around 138.70, where it could retrace to the level of 137.60. At this level, we have a Forex48 block, which represents a potential entry point for a long trade. Alternatively, the price could reach the zone of 141.60, where we have another Forex48 block, indicating a possible reversal and an entry point for a short trade. The upcoming week looks promising with some significant macro data, especially considering the perspective of the Federal Reserve. Wishing everyone successful trading, and greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USDCAD TWO POSSIBLE SETUPS H1On USD/CAD, we have a bullish setup with the price establishing a strong demand zone around 1.3128 and rising by breaking through the supply zone around 1.3177. Within this zone, the price has defined a Forex48 block, which is a potential entry point for a long trade in case of a pullback. In addition to this point, the price has identified another one in the zone of 1.3260-1.3270, where the price could retrace for a short entry. Let me know what you think, share your opinion, and leave a like to support our work. We would be truly grateful. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
XAUUSD RE-TEST BEFORE A LONG TRADE H1On gold, we have a price that has stabilized in the range of 1050-1960 after a strong rally following the US data. In fact, we have seen a truly weak dollar during the week, except for yesterday when the greenback managed to regain some ground. However, I expect a price rebound in the 1938 zone, which corresponds to the 0.5% Fibonacci level, as the price is currently at the 0.25% level, which has acted as support. Therefore, I anticipate a retracement before going long and retesting the 1965 levels in the supply zone. If you'd like, we would be really grateful if you shared your opinion and left a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Can UCAR Power Up?UCAR a stock somehow involved in the EV sector showed its spikeability earlier this month
with a 280% run up and has since faded back to about 66% higher than the price before the
run up. The question is can it do the same thing again? Price is sitting on the support of the
POC line of the volume protile while the RSI just crossed 50 a threshold of sorts for bullish
momentum. The MACD is slowly working its way into that momentum with the K/D lines heading
towards a cross of the horizontal zero. The relative volume indicator shows that during the
price spike mentioned above volume spiked as well. Volume is presently low. I will watch this
stock with an alert for volume above the running mean of 10 days. That way I may get an early
heads up of possible impending price spiking action.
TBT Treasuries Bear Leveraged ETFTBT is going to take another swing now that interest rates are going up.
Fundamentally, Treasuries and other bonds will go down on their real face value
because their yield is lower than the new going rate. Inverse EFTs like TBT
will go up when Treasuries go down.
On the w Chart chart, price is sitting above the POC line of the volume profile
where there is support and high volatility. Above the line shows buyers in control
ready to move price higher.
The Awesome Oscillator flipped green today after the fed news showing that selling momentum
has been replaced by buying momentum ( capitulation at the bottom).
The volume indicator shows a clear uptick in buying volume.
TBT offers options to further leverage this trade.
I will take a call options position of several contracts for the 5/12 expiration at a strike
about 5% below the current price. I expect 100% return on risk by next Monday and more
after that.
GNRC - trending upAnother typical example of a stock breaking up (into a new uptrend) after forming a base:
1. Broke out of the neckline and did a classic retest of this neckline a few days later, affirming the neckline as the new support
2. trading above it's 200 day moving average
3. Golden cross for additional confirmation that the stock is in "recovery"
Recent volume was not exceptional though, hence how far the stock could rise remains to be seen. Initial stop loss just under 131 (below most recent pivot low @ 131.35).
Watch out for earnings expected around 26 July. Might be prudent to take some profits off prior to earnings release.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is (probably the most) important! Take care and Good Luck!
AUDUSDThe tight space between important levels of Aussie makes it so hard for me to open medium-term trades.
I suggest if you are not into short-term trading avoid decision making before breaking of the two levels.
After breaking the stronger levels I'll expect an almost sharp move.
The United States CPI announcement could be a fuel to a level-breaker market move.
EURAUD LONG TRADE BEFORE NZD RATESOn EUR/AUD, we have a bullish setup after last week's news on the dollar. Currently, the price is retracing and it is expected to do so until the 38 Fibonacci level. There, we have a potential entry point for a long trade at 1.6475, as we have a breaker block validating the entire setup. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USDCHF REVERSAL ZONE H1 - SHORT TRADEOn USDCHF, we have a slightly bearish setup this morning, with the price forming a breaker block pattern around the 0.8940 level. In this area, we can expect a possible rebound, so it would be advisable to consider entering a short trade with a target of 0.88. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion with us and leave a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.