Volumeanalysis
Intapp INTA Cloud Software Services Tech LONG As can be seen on the 2H Chart INTA is on pacing over a 350% annualized gain
without any major pivots. The volume indicator shows a dramatic increase
in volume realtive to the year prior. INTA is capturing alpha consistently
in a hypergrowth mode as can be seen by reviewing the earnings beats quarter
after quarter. This is clear and obvious entry with earnings coming on
May 8th. I originally bought options last summer after the double bottom
and have added a couple of weeks before each earnings .
Price recently bounced down 10% from minor resistance representing
a small pullback with space above in the runup for the earnings report.
I see a potential return of 15% in 10 trading days or less and
75-100% for call options with expiration of 5/19/23 in consideration
of the pullback described above and shown on the chart
How to use Volume and Volatility to improve your tradesVolume and volatility are two important factors that can affect your trading performance. Volume measures the number of shares or contracts traded in a given period, while volatility measures the degree of price fluctuations. Understanding how these two factors interact can help you identify trading opportunities, manage risk, and optimize your entry and exit points.
In this article, we will explain how to use volume and volatility to improve your trades in four steps:
1. Analyze the volume and volatility patterns of the market or instrument you are trading. Different markets and instruments have different volume and volatility profiles, depending on factors such as liquidity, supply and demand, news events, and market sentiment. For example, some markets may have higher volume and volatility during certain hours of the day, while others may have lower volume and volatility during holidays or weekends. You can use tools such as volume bars, volume indicators, average true range (ATR), and historical volatility to analyze the volume and volatility patterns of your chosen market or instrument.
2. Identify the volume and volatility signals that indicate a potential trade setup. Volume and volatility signals can help you confirm the strength and direction of a trend, spot reversals and breakouts, and gauge the momentum and interest of the market participants. For example, some common volume and volatility signals are:
- High volume and high volatility indicate strong conviction and participation in a trend or a breakout. This can be a sign of a continuation or an acceleration of the price movement.
- Low volume and low volatility indicate weak conviction and participation in a trend or a breakout. This can be a sign of a consolidation or a slowdown of the price movement.
- Rising volume and rising volatility indicate increasing interest and activity in the market. This can be a sign of a potential reversal or breakout from a consolidation or a range.
- Falling volume and falling volatility indicate decreasing interest and activity in the market. This can be a sign of a potential exhaustion or continuation of a trend.
3. Choose the appropriate trading strategy based on the volume and volatility conditions. Depending on the volume and volatility signals you observe, you can choose different trading strategies to suit the market conditions. For example, some possible trading strategies are:
- Trend following: This strategy involves following the direction of the dominant trend, using volume and volatility to confirm the trend strength and identify entry and exit points. You can use trend indicators, such as moving averages, to define the trend direction, and use volume indicators, such as on-balance volume (OBV), to measure the buying and selling pressure behind the trend. You can also use volatility indicators, such as Bollinger bands, to identify periods of high or low volatility within the trend.
- Reversal trading: This strategy involves identifying potential turning points in the market, using volume and volatility to confirm the reversal signals. You can use reversal patterns, such as double tops or bottoms, head and shoulders, or candlestick patterns, to spot potential reversals, and use volume indicators, such as volume profile or accumulation/distribution line (ADL), to measure the distribution or accumulation of shares or contracts at different price levels. You can also use volatility indicators, such as standard deviation or Keltner channels, to identify periods of overbought or oversold conditions that may precede a reversal.
- Breakout trading: This strategy involves trading when the price breaks out of a consolidation or a range, using volume and volatility to confirm the breakout validity and direction. You can use support and resistance levels, such as horizontal lines, trend lines, or Fibonacci retracements, to define the boundaries of the consolidation or range, and use volume indicators, such as volume breakout or Chaikin money flow (CMF), to measure the inflow or outflow of money during the breakout. You can also use volatility indicators, such as average directional index (ADX) or Donchian channels, to measure the strength or weakness of the breakout.
4. Manage your risk and reward based on the volume and volatility expectations. Volume and volatility can also help you determine your risk-reward ratio, position size, stop-loss level, and profit target for each trade. Generally speaking,
- Higher volume and higher volatility imply higher risk and higher reward potential. You may need to use wider stop-losses and profit targets to account for the larger price fluctuations. You may also need to reduce your position size to limit your exposure to the market.
- Lower volume and lower volatility imply lower risk and lower reward potential. You may need to use tighter stop-losses and profit targets to account for the smaller price fluctuations. You may also need to increase your position size to enhance your returns from the market.
By following these four steps, you can use volume and volatility to improve your trades in any market or instrument. Volume and volatility are dynamic factors that reflect the supply and demand forces in the market.
GBP/USD INTRADAY LONG3 Main AIO corresponding to valid order blocks
1- Supply that formed before big push to the downside creating a Choch on 1h TF, although maing swing low was not broken. bullish bias for higher timeframes
2- Principal Area of interest with order placed with appropriate risk management, has it the last demand formed before new high is formed on the 1h in confluence with demand sitting at 0.705 fib level of the structural move. In confluence with the POC of volume profile correspondent to the beggining until start of today london session.
3- Demand just below sitting on 0.786 fib level of structural move where if price reaches the area I will look for LTF confirmations to place order
There is a significant increase in the volume traded per session as the week develops. last major volume, made price range after creating a new high. Although the build up in volume is aided of price oscillating to the upside. I take that as volume that intends to break structure meaning creating a new swing high.
For the reasons above i am bullish for today.
GLAND - Bullish view - 10% ROIAll details are given on chart. If you like the analyses please do share it with your friends, like and follow me for more such interesting charts.
Disc - Am not a SEBI registered. Please do your own analyses before taking position. This post is only for educational purposes and not a trading recommendation
MGRX Biotech Penny Stock Pullback for Continuation LONGMGRX with some FDA news catalyst got a lot of action on the last session of the week.
With the pullback and overwhelming volume during the session, a continuation into
the upcoming week is entirely reasonable. ( see also the link)
MGRX had a last price of about $1.50 about a 50% retracement from the high of the day.
I will take a position at market price in the pre-market opening the week. The
target will be $2.25 or midway between the current price and the high of the last session.
This will represent a 50% Return on Trading Position. I will set a stop loss at $ 1.40
representing a 10% loss. Price at present is sitting on a confluence of support of
both the 20 and 50 HMAs along with the lowermost VWAP band. The reward for risk is 5X.
MGRX does not have options. I expect the long trade to hit the continuation target
in less than 5 days. I will set a buy-stop order to take a position when the price exceeds
$ 1.55 with a stop loss of $0.15 to account for the expected volatility.
RRGB - Great price action so far (buy the next dip)RRGB has the hallmarks of a stock that could potentially be a great winner. It broke out of it's base formation on 1st March on earnings beat with a strong breakaway gap (Breakaway gaps signify the beginning of a new trend and does not get filled in the near term).
It then proceeded higher over the next few days before pulling back to the breakup level @ 10.60 on 14 Mar, and then bounced right off again from there. This classic "break up and retest" establishes the neckline as the new "resistence turned support".
If one had been watching this stock, going long shortly after this "retest" would have been ideal.
However, since it is likely the trend is still in early stage, any near term dip (eg to fib retracement levels of 38-50%, or formation of bull pennant or flag etc) would still be a good opportunity to long. Let's see if the opportunity presents soon.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
Next stop: Altcoins. Hello traders.
Bitcoin is finally arriving at my point of interest which, if you follow my ideas here will know that the area which I have a keen interest on is anything between FWB:25K -$27k.
Bitcoin candles, once in this zone, will print whatever they want to print. I will set my buy orders within this range. Meanwhile, a bounce in btc from this range means an upward mega rally in AltCoins. Which means I will be buying some of them at the current prices. (Ada, Matic, Eth etc). These coins give a decent return whenever Bitcoin shows a rally up. So this is an excellent opportunity no one wants to miss.
ES1! Fibonacci LevelsES1! Fibonacci Levels on 6wk horizon. Confluence observed with PA in sustained level between Key SMAS 20, 200. Confluence observed with 0.618 and 0.5 with areas of fair value. Reliability of measure supported using linear regression with pearsons r of 0.97554. A bear flag would be confirmed with breach of sigma 2 :3888.50 and KLs 3973.75, 3515.50 (and rediscovery of September 2022 and October 2020 prices). > 4165.75: 4319.25, 4509 (sigma 1 level confluent with fib 0.236); Where RSI of 54.43 x upward slope supports risk on auction // Price at time of study 4140.25// Upcoming earnings will be factored in alongside economic events, breadth, and treasury market volatility// Bias: Neutral to risk on
📊The Effects of Volume Cheatsheet📍 In trading, volume refers to the number of shares or contracts that are traded within a specific period of time. It is a key technical indicator used by traders and investors to analyze the strength and direction of price movements in the financial markets.
The volume of a security can be used to confirm trends, indicate potential reversals, and identify areas of support and resistance. For example, a sudden increase in trading volume for a particular stock may suggest that a significant news event has occurred or that there is an increase in investor interest. On the other hand, a decrease in volume may indicate that investors are losing interest or that a trend is weakening.
Volume is important in trading because it provides information about market activity and helps traders make informed decisions. By analyzing trading volume along with other technical indicators such as moving averages and price patterns, traders can gain insights into market trends and make more accurate predictions about future price movements.
💥Key Takeaway:
When prices are rising or falling with high volume , it suggests that there is strong participation in the market and that the price movement is likely to continue in that direction . Conversely, when prices are rising or falling with low volume, it may indicate that there is not enough market participation to sustain the price movement and that a reversal could occur.
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BTC Weekly Bearish Volume divergenceThis is very simple observation so I will not get too much into it, because chart speaks for itself.
The fact I remain bearish doesn't mean I don't trade along the current trend. I'm saying that despite everyone on social media yelling bull run, I see bulls, but they are not running.
TMF 20 year 3x Leveraged Treasuries ETFTMF completed an uptrend from 3/28 to 4/6 and then a retracement of it.
It is now positioned above the 0.5 Fibonacci level also the VWAP of the anchored
multisession VWAP indicator in the fair value ( and high volatility ) area also
near to and importantly above the POC line of the intermediate-term volume
profile. This high confluence yields strong support for the continuation of
an uptrend targetting $10.00 the pivot high this past February with a stop loss
of $8.92. For those looking for a high reward entree with the requistite
risk appetite a call option with a strike of $9.00 or $ 9.50 expiring 5/19
or 6/16 might be what is on the menu.
ADA Breakout possible, TriangleCurrently, ADA is displaying a triangle pattern, indicating an upcoming breakout. However, given the fundamental background, the likelihood of a downside breakout is higher, particularly as the price approaches the 0.786 level.
Notably, the 0.34 area has seen significant buying interest, suggesting that this may be the target if ADA does break the trendline and FIB level to the downside, as supported by volume data.
MATICUSDT Potential Bullish BreakoutMATIC is currently approaching a crucial Fibonacci level that aligns with a trendline created by higher lows. This price range has seen MOST of the recent trading activity, as shown on the chart. Therefore, there is a possibility for a bullish breakout in the near future, especially after the markets close on the weekend. The trading idea suggests buying Matic on Friday and selling it on Monday, as the weekend closure may trigger positive market sentiment and a potential price increase. However, it's important to monitor the price action and adjust the trading plan accordingly to manage the risk.
US 500 LongIf this is an Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern, 4200 is the target.
What we need to see is the price get above the recent POC.
Blood is in the streets.
The Fed needs to get some new expectations out and deliver some news that comforts the market. Or this is their way of creating financial turmoil that gets job losses that crushes the demand. You choose your narrative.
Or, maybe the news is designed to shake everyone's confidence so that the actual money men of this world can buy at a discount.
NASDQ losing momentumReaching the top of the volume shelf profile and weekly expected move. VIX 2hr and 4hr changing momentum on MACD to bullish for VIX while QQQ is turning to negative momentum. 320 on QQQ seems to be a resistance level that will hold. Expecting a pull back in preparation for the March CPI print with a large rally a few days before as we have seen at the previous CPI prints.
Not financial advice just my personal thoughts
Bulls, Turn Up The Volume!Bulls have been shouting ALL last year, that the Bear market is over.
It's fine. Everything is fine.
Don't think about hyperinflation incoming, or the everything crash around the corner, or credit default swaps going vertical, or multiple banks insolvency, or dollar threatened as global currency, or Fed rates still rising all this year, or layoffs increasing, or personal credit usage rising more, or personal savings non-existent, or discretionary spending decreasing to substance vices only... or all the other things that we can see signaling this is the middle of the bear market, only. Not the end of it.
Almost a year since my last post & I still see many Bulls (mainstream media & social media influencers), urging retail to "buy the dip!" & other nonsense. There have been dips last year, & there will be more this year. You can buy low now, & hold the bag soon, for banks & hedge funds that have counted on you todo for generations.
Or wait until we actually crash first, & then buy at the bottom. Volume doesn't lie & VIX doesn't lie. Only when you see both big & strong, then you will see capitulation.
Hold steady in waiting. You can scalp, or catch the small sideways swings, if you like. But don't fool yourself into thinking now is the time to go long. It's not.