July Seasonal Long Copper HG1!: Seeking Gap & clean highs-We retraced down to 50% of the 2024 up leg, finding support.
-We neatly found support at the Volume imbalance W and the midpoint of the Fair value gap M, circa 50% of said 2024 up leg.
-July has a strong bullish seasonal tendency.
~The plan would be to take partials (half off) in the gap (FVG- fair value gap) circa 4.75; and move stop-loss up to trailing.
~If this runs up hard & fast, ideal target would be the high time frame clean highs 5.24
~Timestop: End of July marks end of seasonal bull, so depending on the price action context, i'd be inclined to close the trade as we enter into August.
~If this proves bearish and i'm wrong, I would close the entire position if we come any lower than a mere peep below the late June low; stop-loss would be at 4.31
**B-ADJ toggled ON; SET toggled OFF.
**Just an idea for paper trading purposes, not financial advice.
Volumeimbalance
EURJPYPrice for the first time reached a very old volume imbalance since the market crash of 2008.
Inside the V.E we have a 4H rsi divergence and two 4H balanced price points where i want to see price respect them if my short bias is correct.
Price forms a typical OHLC week with a creation of a bearish flag.
All these confluences lead to a short bias.
$ES New All Time High ExpectedOur projected path for CME_MINI:ES1! to take out the January 2022 High which also happens to be the All Time High. We are using a range from a Weekly Volume Imbalance and a Weekly Bullish Order Block combined to give us a price range between $4190-$4288 to find long positions. This price range is also in a discount for the current weekly price leg; giving us more reason to look for buying opportunities here. Look for price to reach this are late August or early September. We will post a smaller time frame once we get into this area and we see a favorable trade. We will take a small swing position but we are more excited to ride the price legs to the new high through intraday trading. We have used Fibonacci Projections to give us $4854 as our first target.
Just for fun we want to call $5092 as the 2023 High of The Year. Leave your best guesses for the 2023 High below :)
Happy Trading,
BlackOakCapital
ES AnalysisES inside the 4h FVG and 4h Breaker Block.
Sunday Open:
1) Possible pullback to the 15m Breaker Block and bounce to the 4147-4153.25 will be great to see.
There is 1h Breaker Block (4149.50-4153.25).
Break above 4166 should offer the test of the daily Volume Imbalance at 4179.50-4185.75.
2) Failure to hold 4h Breaker Block should offer short opportunity to the 4h OB. 4087.25-4079.75 where 4079.75 is mean threshold of this Order Block.
ESM2023 Possible ScenariosOld Daily Volume Imbalance (4133-4136) became as support. Break below 4133 will open the room to the 4h Breaker Block - 4115.00-4105.00.
Hold of Sunday Open Level can bring us to the 4167. There is another daily volume imbalance at 4179-4185.
Keep my eyes on 4191 - Next BSL after break of the 4167.