BTCUSD 15 minute/1D charts (4/4/2019)Good morning, traders. Price tapped out just shy of the $5300 level at $5282 yesterday. Those in our Discord were alerted three hours prior to the $4800 target of the drop and price hit $4800.50 (missed it by 0.50). I then posted a target of the $5075-$5110 area as resistance and that was hit a few hours later. Unfortunately I often don't think about updating TV. So where are we at now? Sideways, continuing to find resistance at the 15 minute pivot.
The orange zone is the monthly OB and the green inside of it is the daily OB, as I have pointed out numerous times before. My short survived the extra bit of push up yesterday, so I remain short toward $4400-$4500 with the caveats of possible wicks lower which I published yesterday and/or the day before. Initial support will likely be found around $4700 at the top of the monthly OB. The 4H RSI dropped through channel support suggesting that more downside is in the cards. Stoch RSI on the 4H is nearing the bottom. The 1H RSI continues to drop and is expected to reach oversold and Stoch RSI is nearing the top. Price is finding resistance at the 21 EMA on the 1H. As mentioned previously, daily RSI is at the top of the ascending channel and Stoch RSI is topped out, suggesting a reversal on that larger TF. Additionally, yesterday's volume almost hit the previous day's volume, yet the candle spread was much smaller and the day ended with a long upper wick. This is indicative of supply coming in and demand fatiguing. The daily 21 EMA is currently at the R1 pivot around $4250.
If we can get the correction toward $4500, then that should set up a 5th wave targeting the $6250-$6500 zone. In that case, we would then expect to see a retracement back toward the monthly OB for a final time before further price appreciation as the wave 2 of the larger degree completes. Currently, 15 minute RSI has printed hidden bearish divergence and supply volume spikes are showing up increasingly larger near that pivot suggesting increasing selling into demand which should result in price dropping.
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