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Volumepriceanalysis

Wyckoff Accumulation Phases of Credit SuisseSome remarks on the price evolution of CS Credit Suisse stock was in a downtrend which ended with a selling climax (SCLX) on February 11 this year. After that CS showed signs of being accumulated. The Brexit vote initiated a huge shake out. During this shake out it broke below its trading range, after which it trended back up into the trading range. Here it tested the 12.56 support twice; once on the Deutsche Bank fine news and also today after CEO Tidjane Thiam said he expects a challenging third quarter. Currently it is in Phase D, or alternatively it might still be in phase B. Notice the volume peaks on down swings. This is a sign of buying pressure caused by the Composite Operator (or Insiders as Anna Coulling calls them) which buy in the lower end of the trading range, as discussed in the book "A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis " by Anna Coulling. I posted this idea before (linked below). On that chart you see the On Balance Volume indicator. Notice the explosion of the on balance volume for CS, right after the Brexit. And you know what they say: "volume precedes price". I also labeled the chart of CSGNZ. Notice the differences in volume, particularly during the selling climax: Some facts that support the hypothesis suggested by the technical analysis: STRONG HANDS HOLDING CS A very large part of CS shares is held by a few very large long-term investors that don't sell on weakness but use it to add to their core position (smart money). In fact they've added just recently. These kinds of buyers and shareholders explain the pattern we see in the CS and CSGNZ charts. In the last couple of weeks more than 20 percent of Credit Suisse shares is owned by three shareholders: Harris Associates (with David Herro as fund manager) owns more than 10 percent of shares ( August 22 , 2016). The Saudi Arabian Olayan Group , through its registered entity Crescent Holding GmbH, holds more than 5 percent of shares and about 5 percent in convertible bonds ( September 12 , 2016) and is/was represented by someone on the board. The Capital Group holds more than 5 percent of shares ( August 30 , 2016). www.credit-suisse.com www.thecountrycaller.com www.finews.com Besides these shareholders there is the state fund of Qatar that owns more than 5 percent of shares and about 13 percent in convertible bonds ( June 17 , 2016) and is represented by someone on the board. Considering the long and intimate relationship of the Qatar state fund and Credit Suisse it is safe to assume they didn't sell in the past 3 months and this would imply no less than 25% of shares being owned by no more than 4 shareholders in the past month. Another shareholder worth mentioning is the Norwegian Sovereign Fund (Norges Bank), which claimed beneficial ownership the day after the selling climax on February 11 (owning 5 percent of shares on February 12). These are the shareholders that were required to file a Schedule 13D with the SEC, due to beneficial ownership. But I bet there are a lot of other institutions buying CS without reaching beneficial ownership.
NYSE:CSLong
by Undertow
BMW Double Bottom - Buy SignalBMW has formed a double bottom as shown on the weekly chart along with a decreasing volume which suggests a lack of selling pressure. We are now waiting for a confirmation signal from the RSI to break through its trendline before opening a position on this stock. We expect price to test the upper trendline of the triangle before breaking through should the UK decide to remain in the EU as UK is a huge importer of BMW cars. It was also reported a few days ago that BMW plan to accelerate plans to innovate driverless cars by partnering with technology companies and acquiring start up companies. On the long side, we expect this pair to head towards the €100 level. Alternatively, if the fundamentals send price down, we expect it to target the €50 level.
FWB:BMWLong
by londontradingcommunity
1
Bet on the support reboundThis trade aims at the short-term rebound from the historical low. Since June 07, short-sellers initiated a selling force to test JD's the 52-week low. The price was driven down,but no volume followed. However, when the price was reaching the 52-week low, there are people collecting the dimes, on June 16. Maybe the short-sellers were covering here. I think it is a good bet on a short-term rebound. Here is my plan: 1. Stop Loss at 19. 2. Profit taking at 23 or Time Exit in 5 days.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by cwho2090
Coloured Bolume Bars - SteynTrade_V2Updated version of Colour Volume Bars V2 The colour bars: Green: Price up - Volume > 2 x STD of last 21 bars Blue: Price up - Volume > 1 x STD of last 21 bars Maroon: Price down - Volume > 2 x STD of last 21 bars Purple: Price down - Volume > 1 x STD of last 21 bars Grey: not high volume bar black line: 2 bar sma Red line: 8 period sma Blue line: 21 period sma Bollinger band: 55 period sma with bands 2 deviation from the mean I use this indicator together with the TDI and Ichimoku indicators with the same period settings. Together they give price action, sentiment and volume on three time frames.
by SteynTrade
6
SP goes lower after failure of converting 2057 resistance0. Review. Called for a bounce from 2048ES. Yesterday night bulls lost their fortress, tried twice today to break 2048ES but failed. 1. Analysis Scenario 1: bearish On 4hr chart, we have traded under sma30 for the longest period since 3-23, when it went down to 2012ES. Alarm rings to bulls. Bulls will try for a third time to convert 2048ES support tomorrow, if they fail and close under 2048, prepare for a drop to .618 and .5 support down to 1978 cash. Scenario 2: bullish Successfully convert 2048. Expect a retest of 2068ES. 2. Today's call I'm making sure the calls are tradable and can be applied to both scenarios. Tonight we will reach lower than 2035 and test up to 2048, not sure it will break, but a 3rd test is required. Buy entry @ around 2032, TP @ 2047 Short @ 2048 if it won't break. Happy trading and be cautious. -Hank
FX:SPX500Short
by hankchef
1
Situation becomes subtle for SPX, multiple possible scenarios0. Review Called for 2035 ES retrace yesterday night, and it did print, but later than I expected. My short order got filled @ 2042 and Exited @ 2035. Tried to long at 2031.75, but stopped with a few points gain. I expected it print midnight, then continue the rally. But it didn't. Yesterday's status quo gives a sign for a rest of rally, especially before Easter. 1. Volume Price Analysis Today's volume is slightly below average and continued shrinking. It's the sign of topping. www.tradingview.com We had heavy volume around 2042 to 2045 cash on the 5min chart, which is a retest of yesterday's weak volume area. 2. A 2-day forecast We don't know it's a rest today before another rally or a temporary top is here. I will not place any unattended overnight order from today since it's more subtle now. charts.mql5.com Dermark sell setup invalidated on the daily chart. We may not have a clear sell signal here, it could be a rest before next rally, or moderate retrace start today. I will be careful either long or short, but I'm less bullish now. Tomorrow we probably retest 2040 ES high and again have a sideway touches lower, and may as well close at a lower price than today. That's today's call. Happy trading to all and be cautious! - Hank
FX:SPX500Short
by hankchef
TESTING HIGHER TO TEMPORARY TOP Chart is SPX cash. Prices mentioned here are ES Jun if not specified. 0. Review Called for a retrace overnight and resume climbing up to top. It did retrace to 2029 ES, and rallied to 2047 ES. 1. Volume-Price Analysis 1.1 Big picture Expect temporary top @ 2065 cash or 2052.5 to 2056 ES - the .786 Fib level. The ES Jun chart cannot reflect fair value, instead, on a combine chart of Mar and Jun ES, the .764 target is 2058.11 ES Mar, which is 2047 ES Jun roughly(today's resistance level if you noticed, but not the major one). But we take .786 as the major resistance level since it makes more sense than .764.(search for why). 1.2 A 2-day Forecast 3-17 to 3-21 are anomalies, if rate decision day is included, we have a 4-candle anomaly situation on the daily chart. 3-22 we reach a status quo, while the volume continues dropping, which validates our top prediction. On the 5min 30min and 1hour ES chart today, we have volume anomaly around 2043.75 to 2046.5, and 2035 to 2041. which need further retesting. Besides, Demark Sequential indicator needs daily bar 9 of 3-23 for a sell setup perfection. For tomorrow if it trades above 2041.7 cash, sell setup perfection will be completed. And also a sell count down is forming daily on bar 9 (need bar 10 to bar 13 to print, which is until early next Monday, it won't be surprising if we do not have a major retrace before early next week.) So my call today is trade down to around 2035 overnight, then goes up to retest 2047 to 2052.5 level again. Happy trading to all and trade with caution! - Hank
FX:SPX500
by hankchef
1
Another free trade.You must short this one.I know CHFJPY is not a common pair but I can not leave it when I get a signals. Right now the market is on the resistance. On one hour time frame, the market formed a doji. It is having difficult in crossing that level. There is a high possibility the market will reverse and continue with downtrend. I will hold a little and watch how the volumes will appear and then I will decide if I will short this trade. May the market favor us.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn39772