Volumepriceanalysis
CAD/JPY H4Pair from beginning of June on h4 timeframe was in an uptrend.
Now it is possible to observe that Demand is decreasing and SOT formation created.
There is also typical "spread" candle typical to end of trend and price start to be in an accumulation.
I will be looking for sell signal based on cumulate volume indicator.
Also price is in control of Daily Supply zone.
Reversal looking likely here. Need confirming volume. The last few days large blocks have started coming in. The largest block out of all was 150k shares within a 3 minute time period.
Watch for Bitcoin Weekly Shooting Star Reversal CandleI've been consistent in my analysis since July of last year (see related ideas). It certainly surpassed my projections. The mainstream media is finally covering bitcoin AFTER it has rallied $2000 or moved up at least 300%. Now, "experts" will explain this rally to you and justify why "this time is different." I view this as a major sell signal (i.e. optimism at extremes).
www.cnbc.com
Book recommendations:
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
EURUSD [240] - Deciding Where to Go?Since Monday, price has been hovering at just above the 1.0600 decision area for roughly 9 bars now (good chance something is about to be decided).
Buying potential: If the pair rises past the 1.0700 void to the 1.0730 area, we may have little resistance further up.
If selling, the key area is 1.0440.
GBPUSD [240] Volume AreasFellow traders, if price hits the volume void at around 1.2085 , it'll likely rise to the decision area around 1.2155 before taking a dip or moving on up. There are more ' buyers ' than there are ' sellers ' at these levels, but more sell pressure at around 1.2300 .
I am currently not in any trade before the inauguration, just watching for now.
All the best!
Wyckoff Accumulation Phases of Credit SuisseSome remarks on the price evolution of CS
Credit Suisse stock was in a downtrend which ended with a selling climax (SCLX) on February 11 this year. After that CS showed signs of being accumulated. The Brexit vote initiated a huge shake out. During this shake out it broke below its trading range, after which it trended back up into the trading range. Here it tested the 12.56 support twice; once on the Deutsche Bank fine news and also today after CEO Tidjane Thiam said he expects a challenging third quarter. Currently it is in Phase D, or alternatively it might still be in phase B.
Notice the volume peaks on down swings. This is a sign of buying pressure caused by the Composite Operator (or Insiders as Anna Coulling calls them) which buy in the lower end of the trading range, as discussed in the book "A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis " by Anna Coulling.
I posted this idea before (linked below).
On that chart you see the On Balance Volume indicator. Notice the explosion of the on balance volume for CS, right after the Brexit. And you know what they say: "volume precedes price".
I also labeled the chart of CSGNZ. Notice the differences in volume, particularly during the selling climax:
Some facts that support the hypothesis suggested by the technical analysis:
STRONG HANDS HOLDING CS
A very large part of CS shares is held by a few very large long-term investors that don't sell on weakness but use it to add to their core position (smart money). In fact they've added just recently. These kinds of buyers and shareholders explain the pattern we see in the CS and CSGNZ charts.
In the last couple of weeks more than 20 percent of Credit Suisse shares is owned by three shareholders:
Harris Associates (with David Herro as fund manager) owns more than 10 percent of shares ( August 22 , 2016).
The Saudi Arabian Olayan Group , through its registered entity Crescent Holding GmbH, holds more than 5 percent of shares and about 5 percent in convertible bonds ( September 12 , 2016) and is/was represented by someone on the board.
The Capital Group holds more than 5 percent of shares ( August 30 , 2016).
www.credit-suisse.com
www.thecountrycaller.com
www.finews.com
Besides these shareholders there is the state fund of Qatar that owns more than 5 percent of shares and about 13 percent in convertible bonds ( June 17 , 2016) and is represented by someone on the board.
Considering the long and intimate relationship of the Qatar state fund and Credit Suisse it is safe to assume they didn't sell in the past 3 months and this would imply no less than 25% of shares being owned by no more than 4 shareholders in the past month.
Another shareholder worth mentioning is the Norwegian Sovereign Fund (Norges Bank), which claimed beneficial ownership the day after the selling climax on February 11 (owning 5 percent of shares on February 12).
These are the shareholders that were required to file a Schedule 13D with the SEC, due to beneficial ownership. But I bet there are a lot of other institutions buying CS without reaching beneficial ownership.
AUDUSD waiting for the markup As indicated last week we expected to find support at the resistance lines. There is consistent dominance of demand over supply. Advances (SOSs) have widening price spreads and increasing volume. Reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes was again seen. We are at the top of the TR. We should see the mark-up phase should start soon.
EURUSD ABCD count under threat?Price has made a deep retracement and if the Brexit low is broken this ABCD count that has been progressing for some weeks would be over. However, there is little volume support for this move and I expect the pair to go long next week. But let first see if the trend holds.
BMW Double Bottom - Buy SignalBMW has formed a double bottom as shown on the weekly chart along with a decreasing volume which suggests a lack of selling pressure. We are now waiting for a confirmation signal from the RSI to break through its trendline before opening a position on this stock. We expect price to test the upper trendline of the triangle before breaking through should the UK decide to remain in the EU as UK is a huge importer of BMW cars. It was also reported a few days ago that BMW plan to accelerate plans to innovate driverless cars by partnering with technology companies and acquiring start up companies. On the long side, we expect this pair to head towards the €100 level. Alternatively, if the fundamentals send price down, we expect it to target the €50 level.
Bet on reversalJune 17 bar sells off with large volume, but couldn't drive the price much lower. Take a look the similar pattern on Jan 15, Feb 11. There would be a good chance to form a low here.
Bet on the support reboundThis trade aims at the short-term rebound from the historical low. Since June 07, short-sellers initiated a selling force to test JD's the 52-week low. The price was driven down,but no volume followed. However, when the price was reaching the 52-week low, there are people collecting the dimes, on June 16. Maybe the short-sellers were covering here. I think it is a good bet on a short-term rebound.
Here is my plan:
1. Stop Loss at 19.
2. Profit taking at 23 or Time Exit in 5 days.
Coloured Bolume Bars - SteynTrade_V2Updated version of Colour Volume Bars V2
The colour bars:
Green: Price up - Volume > 2 x STD of last 21 bars
Blue: Price up - Volume > 1 x STD of last 21 bars
Maroon: Price down - Volume > 2 x STD of last 21 bars
Purple: Price down - Volume > 1 x STD of last 21 bars
Grey: not high volume bar
black line: 2 bar sma
Red line: 8 period sma
Blue line: 21 period sma
Bollinger band: 55 period sma with bands 2 deviation from the mean
I use this indicator together with the TDI and Ichimoku indicators with the same period settings. Together they give price action, sentiment and volume on three time frames.