Volume Profile
cris - long bullflag continuationlooks like bullflag continuation to me volume confirmation breaking the kumo senkou line. head and shoulder reversal is done big bounce off support should go higher
Gold Closes Higher in Wake of Fed Rate HikeGold closed 6.6 points higher in the first full day of trading after the Fed announced a new interest rate hike. Price closed above many of the moving averages, including the 6, 8 50 and 100. It also closed above the 21 week moving average. In addition, as I called out yesterday, price did tag the 21 day moving average as was expected after the close above the 6 day moving average yesterday. However, price was not able to close above the 21 day and this is keeping me from being 100% certain of this bull move. However, I am long and I do expect that price will move up and tag the upper bollinger band.
Also notice that the signal line on the stochastic indicator at the bottom of the chart is now above the 20 line and has crossed over the slow line. And also crossing is the 50 over the 100 day moving average. Lots of indication that a bull move is now starting.
The Heikin-Ashi view shows that we have completed 2 green days now and Friday starts with another strong green candle.
Price did touch that POC on the short and intermediate term Volume Profiles. Let's see if Gold can overcome that resistance level and roll above it.
Finally tonight I'd like to look at the dollar index. We now have a solid Heikin-Ashi candle under the Ichimoku cloud and right at the lower Bollinger Band. If the dollar index can continue to moving lower, look at the 200 day moving average (blue line) below at 98.35 as a target. That would be good indeed for the Gold bulls.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Fed Raises Rates and Gold Rises in TurnThe Fed today announced an increase in the Fed rate. This was not a surprise. What was surprising is the Gold rally that followed. In fact, Gold blasted through all resistance levels, including the 6 and 8 day moving averages, the 50 day moving average and the 21 weekly moving average.
The Heikin-Ashi chart also shows a dramatic change of direction (see below)
Now the question is where is Gold going. First, when price breaks the 6 day moving average, statistically speaking, there is a high probability will price will hit the 21 day moving average. Right now, that's at ~1230. My next target would be the top Bollinger Band. That's currently at 1265. This is what I call a coast to coast trade. After that, well, we'll evaluate that in the days to come.
The last chart tonight is the Volume Profile chart. Notice that the short and intermediate term POC is at 1230. This will act like a magnet to price and makes another good target.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Gold moves sideways in Prelude to Fed MeetingAs the United States and the rest of the world wait to hear if the Fed will raise interest rates tomorrow at 2:00 pm EST, Gold continued moving sideways right at the 1200 price level. Price did remain under the 6 day moving average and under all other significant moving averages as I have been pointing out this last week. In addition, we have now finished our 10th red Heikin-Ashi candle in a row. So while the bear run is still intact, anything can happen tomorrow.
On the volume profile, we are still waiting to see if price will go back and fill in the area at the low volume node around 1190.
Volatility will probably return tomorrow and move the needle on Gold to set up the next run. Stay tuned and good luck trading.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Gold Keeps Falling, Breaks Below 1200Gold slowly consolidated today after selling off 5 points at the start of the overnight session. Then at the end of the day, price fell through the magical 1200 level (magical only because it's a nice round number :-) ). We now await the non-farm payroll numbers tomorrow at 8:30 am EST. If the ADP numbers yesterday are an indication, this number may beat the 200k forecasted.
There are now 6 consecutive Heikin-Ashi candles (see my indicator at bottom of chart) and price has solidly moved past all moving averages and the Ichimoku Cloud. There are 2 key support levels coming up. The first is at 1190 which is a low volume node on the Volue Profile chart (see below). The second is @ 1177.5, which is the 23% fib retracement from the election night high. This also corresponds to another low volume node at 1170 on the volume profile.
Disclaimer: This post is for information purposes only. All trading is at your own risk.
Support Levels Fail to Contain Gold's DeclineGold closed the day at 1208.1, down 7.5 points. As I called out in last night's post, there were 4 levels of support today that could have stopped Gold's decline. However, as a continued sign that the bear move is well underway, none of those levels held. To remind you, those levels were:
Gold Support Levels
Lower Bollinger Band - 1214.70
21 Week Moving Average - 1212.80
50 Day Moving Average - 1210.70
38% Fib from Election Day High - 1209.30
With the Fed meeting a week away, it looks like "Sell the rumor, Buy the news" is in full swing.
Notice that on last Wednesday and Friday there was strong buying off the lows to end both of days at the top of the daily range and that each day was followed by strong selling days that closed at the low of the day.
Now, for the last 2 days, there hasn't been any pretense from buyers that they are trying to buy up the market.
On the Volume Profile chart, it definitely looks like price is heading to the low volume node at 1190.
As I mentioned in my post this morning, my first profit target at 1209 was hit and I closed some of my current position.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Long on Intel3/3 - INTC has been consolidating between 35 and 36.50.
Intel has been consolidating after the last rally. From a patter perspective (I'm not a huge pattern guy) it has formed a triangle, and it is on the lowest part of the balancing area hitting very closely the trendline.
Long INTC 170413C37. Targets are 37.50 and stop is 35.25.
Gold Closes Below Moving AveragesOn Friday, Gold closed below the 6, 8 and 21 day moving averages to descend into the Ichimolu cloud for the first time since the end of January. The support at 1222 held up but the buying was not strong enough to force price back above the 21 day moving average. The close below the 8 day moving average the day before generated a Sell signal in my strategy and I am now long. I will talk about targets and where this bear move might be heading later in the week.
Also note that I have written a new indicator that plots the Heikin Ashi bar color on the bottom of the chart. As you can see, there were 3 red Heikin Ashi candles to end last week. Before those 3, there was a yellow Heikin Ashi candle which I have coded to show Heikin Ashi dojis.
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that last week broke the trend of 4 consecutive up weeks. Not only was last week a down week, the candle is an outside candle signaling that a change in direction is about to happen. It is worth noting though that while price closed well within the Ichimoku cloud, it did close above the 21 weekly period moving average and that there has not yet been a change of color on the Heikin Ashi candles. This will have to change before we can definitively say that the bull run is 'officially' over.
On the volume profile chart, you can see that price tried to move higher up the profile but then came back down and ended last week right at the long term POC. The next few days should confirm whether or not price will be moving below the POC or not.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposed only and does not constitute trading advice. All trades you take are at your own risk.
VOLUME PROFILE - playing with Value AreaThe original market profile was developed mainly using 30 minute intraday charts.
However, I find that volume profile is very helpful in shorter timeframes, though I cannot post them here as ideas (though lower down I will as a comment with snapshot).
Here I have changed the Value Area from the default 70 to 38.2, which I find creates a channel around the POC and often is very helpful at showing breakout areas. Generally speaking, the shorter the time period of the chart, the tighter this band can be, though I prefer Fibs. For the 30 min I would use the 61.8, though to be honest I tend not to use the Value Area much when it is that fat.
Anyway, that is the idea: try using a tighter Value Area with a shorter time-frame chart.
Expect SPY Move Down via Volume ProfileSPY:
Using the VP for the range of the recent upmove on a 30 min chart, the Developing POC (point of control, i.e. price where most volume has occured) is at 236.50 (ish). The market has sold below my Collective Moving Average with bands, and although it made one probe, has not yet filled a gap from the 27th high, made on the morning after the big Trump speech.
No guarantees of course, but the current situation indicates that it is quite likely that
a) the market will sell off further and
b) that POC level is a very likely target, or just slightly above.
Note also that this price is well above the middle of the 70% value area (indicated by thin dark green lines).
Note further that there is nothing move above the current POC that is challenging it, therefore it might well act as a magnet.
The End of the Gold RallyGold sold off sharply today, dropping 15.5 points and closing under all 3 moving averages on the chart, the 6 day, the 8 day and the 21 day moving averages. Gold now seems determined to head south. The first target should now be the lower red bollinger band.
Chart update: now that the bull run is over, I've removed the intermediate and short term waves from the chart. In it's place, I've added a fib retracement that spans the date range from election night, 11/8/2016 through the present. It's very clear that Gold was not able to break through the .618 retracement level and is now trading at the .50 level.
Gold is now knocking on the door of the Ichimoku cloud. With 2 strong red Heikin-Ashi candles, odds are that price will now move in to the cloud. The conservative trader will want to wait for price to emerge on the downside of the cloud before going short. More aggressive traders will want to go short now, placing stops at the 6 day moving average.
The Volume Profile chart shows that the long term and short term POCs have move down and it is at this level the price closed today. This is more confirmation that the bull move is over.
Gold Falls and then Rallies Off the 21 Day Moving AverageGold sold off in the overnight session to tag the 21 day moving average. The precious metal then reversed as the New York markets opened up and rallied to close between the 6 and 8 day moving averages. On the whole, gold rose a modest 1.5 points today. Today's doji shows that once again gold seems to be in a holding pattern and moving sideways. Although since this wave started at the end of January, all selloffs have been met with enthusiastic, if not aggressive, buying.
The Heikin-Ashi chart is more bullish and shows that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and that the Chikou Span (lagging line) is also trading above price and the cloud. While overall bullish, it's important to observe that today's Heikin-Ashi candle was a red candle. This followed a Heikin-Ashi doji candle the day before. All adds up to some level of uncertainty.
The volume profile chart is also bullish. Notice that the short and long term POCs are right at the same price as the 21 day moving average. That acted as a magnet for price today but then repelled price upward. This is very bullish suggesting that there is a pool of buyers camped out at the POC.
Gold Retreats Prior to President's Speech before CongressThe bull run of Gold paused today as gold sold off, hit the 6 day moving average and then closed at the middle of the range. Today's doji is the second in a row. Unfortunately for the bulls, as the Asian session opens up, the precious metal is now trading below those moving averages. However, you can expect extra volatility tonight as the US president addresses a joint session of Congress.
The Heikin-Ashi chart shows price right at the 8 day moving average. The doji today, while green, is signaling indecision. This makes sense as the world awaits Trump's speech.
The somewhat elongated node in the long term Volume Profile on the left is acting as temporary resistance at 1256.
Gold Pauses and Hits Resistance Gold traded higher in the first part of the day on Monday and then sold off in the afternoon to close at 1258.8. The day ended with a doji candle that had penetrated the upper BollingerBand but then sold off and closed between the 2 upper BBs. Remember the red BB is set to 2 Standard Deviations and the cyan BB is set to 1.5 Standard Deviations.
Gold is also trading above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. All this supports a continued bullish outlook. This is also confirmed by the 3rd strong green Heikin-Ashi candle that you can see on the chart below. Until at least one of these changes, I will be maintaining my long positions.
Finally, if you look at the long term volume profile on the chart below, I've put a rectangle around the area on the left where it looks like price is trying to fill in. There's a low volume node at 1280 that could act as a magnet and then resistance for price.
Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposed only. Trading is at your own risk.
GOV Waiting to break resistance to go long2/13/2017 - Waiting for GOV to break above $20.50 to start considering a long. Setting up alarm to review once it breaks $20.50. The ~$20.00 has been pretty strong and don't want to place long until it breaks above this resistance. Still bullish as price has left behind the VPOC at 18.50-19.00.
Gold Breaks Out of Range to Close a New Yearly HighGold rose 12.4 points to to close at a new yearly high of 1250.7. This puts the C wave firmly back in play with an expected target of 1277.7.
Price on the Volume Profile charts has now extended past both the short term and intermediate term value areas which suggests that price will now move higher, attempting to fill in the profile at the higher end. The 3 days starting from election day have very large candles which means that not alot of volume was accumulated at that time. These illiquid trading days tend to get re-visited and filled out.
Finally, on the Heikin-Ashi chart, we now have 2 strong, consecutive green candles. The way that price is now moving away from the 6/8 day moving averages is a classical beginning of a new wave.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closes Up 30 Cents and Stays Above Moving AveragesGold closed up 30 cents on the day to maintain it's position above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. It is also still above the extended closing price line (cyan). All in all, while Gold has been trading sideways for 2 weeks, it is still leaning to the bullish side.
The Heikin-Ashi chart for the day shows a red doji for Tuesday's trading day. This could be a warning that signals the next move will be down.
The volume profile chart clearly shows that Gold is trading under the upper value area on both short term and intermediate timeframes.
Finally, I want to call out the sideways price action that has occurred after price penetrated the upper Bollinger Band. This is usually an indication that the next move will be towards the opposite Bollinger Band. This is what I call a Coast to Coast trade.
While the first couple of charts show Gold as leaning to the Bullish side, the red doji and the Volume Profile and the BollingerBands seem to suggest that Gold as leaning to the Bearish side.
Overall, I'm maintaining a neutral outlook.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as advice on trading. All risk is your own.
Gold Moves Up but Can't Break Resistance on Light Trading DayGold rose 2.1 points on Monday in very light trading as the US markets were closed in honor of President's Day. Gold penetrated the 6 and 8 day moving averages at the low of the day but closed above them. The precious metal is trading sideways for now.
This sideways trading is even more pronounced on the Heikin-Ashi daily chart with 6 of the last 8 candles being Dojis. I've also added Ichimoku clouds to the chart. All the indicators are bullish, for now but I've seen Gold stay in these tight ranges for weeks at a time.
The final chart tonight is the Volume Profile view. You can see that price has tried to poke out of the upper value area on the short term profile (on the right) but has so far failed in those attempts. It's also interesting that the upper value area on the intermediate term volume profile is just on top of this so there seems to be a lot of pressure containing Gold's upward movement.
Disclaimer: This commentary is for educational purposes only and is not to be taken as trading advice.
Gold Trades Higher but Runs into ResistanceGold traded higher today, closing at 1240.1, up 5.8 points on the day. While the move was great for the bulls, the precious metal ran into strong resistant @1243.7, the highs from last week. If Gold continues to move up tomorrow, that will mark the 3rd consecutive week up and the 7th out of the last 8 weeks. Here's the weekly chart:
On the main chart above, I've labelled the short term and intermediate waves for this bull run that started on the 23rd of December last year. The measured move of that (A) wave would put price at 1274.3. That's the intermediate wave. The measured move of the short term wave, the minor (a) that started on January 27, would put price at 1283. I've labeled those waves on the chart and put a rectangle at the projected area.
The Heikin-Ashi chart shows a strong green candle for today, with a nice wick at the top and no wick on the bottom. That's about as strong a HA candle as you can get.
The volume profile chart shows that today we moved out of the short term value area but are meeting resistance at the top of the intermediate term value area. If price can push higher, there's a low volume area at the 1248 area that could provide some resistance.
Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Gold Bounces Sharply Off the 21 Day MAGold sold off in the overnight session and tagged the 21 day MA at 1217.5 and then sharply rebounded to close just above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. I have been calling for a tag of that 21 day MA since Monday when price broke through the ice and closed below those moving averages. But now, price is trading above them and the future direction seems like it may be for Gold to rise and resume the C wave which would put the next target at 1276.
Let's take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. There have been 4 doji candles in the last 5 days. That's a good indication of sideways price motion so we may need another day or 2 before the next direction is established.
The volume profile chart shows a very elongated high volume node at 1226. I am watching to see if price will rotate back down and tag it and will it then continue to tag the POC? Or, is there enough strength to break past the short and intermediate term value areas? Again, we are in a waiting pattern.
Disclaimer: comments here are for education purposes only and should not be taken as trade advice. All trading decisions are your own.
RHI Short at Point of control2/13/2016 - RHI already closed the gap from the post earnings but didn't retrace to its previous close. Initiating short at VPOC with tight stop at 48. Target of 45.50
Gold Continues Moving SidewaysGold closed up 3.1 points on Tuesday but that was basically a move sideways. There was some volatility in the morning when Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen began her testominy. But while the DXY dollar index had a strong move up, Gold stayed basically flat. However, it is clear on the chart that Gold is still trading under the 6 and 8 day moving average so my bias is still to the downside, expecting Gold to hit the 21 day moving average. At some point.
Tonight I've combined the Heikin-Ashi chart with the Volume Profile chart. Today's candle was a Doji which signals either a reversal or continuation of the trend. If Gold does continue this downward trend, then I am still expecting price to hit the 21 day moving average or the gold line at the midpoint of the Bollinger Band.
The final chart tonight is a Volume Profile chart with each profile representing a day's trading. The white line is the closing price for each 30 minutes. Notice how the POC acts like a magnet? Well, the 21 Day moving average (gold line) is also a magnet. Let's see if it can attract price tomorrow or at least by the end of the week.
Disclaimer: this chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
