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Volumespreadanalisys

USDZAR Where will the Rand go? The rand strength is overI did not update last week but the previous week was looking for a consolidation or completion of the ABCD pattern (see links below for previous evaluation). The outcome was a consolidation. So now my view is that we will se some further consolidation next week around the yearly PP and previous important structure at just above R14/USD. But the following week could see a dramatic impulse move first targeting levels around R18/USD and then possibly higher.
Long
by SteynTrade
5
USDZAR Where will the Rand go? The beginning of the endBuyers entered the market just above R13 to the dollar. This was an area where previous buying also occurred. A high volume low spread candle. Price corrected back to the Yearly PP just above R14/USD. With all the talk of possible US interest rate hikes, downgrade of credit ratings and prosecution of the SA finance minister the market seems to be selling the Rand. The move back to the Yearly PP was not well supported with volume so I am expecting a final quick move down to complete the AB=CD pattern. However, the market has reached the 61% retrace and could only consolidate around the Yearly PP before moving further. If we are going to see a completion of the ABCD pattern the move will probably complete next week. If consolidation around the Yearly PP occurs next week I think the Rand strength is over and we will not see the final move down.
Short
by SteynTrade
EURUSD some correction before the final push to point EWe have been following the ABCD patterns the EURUSD has been making for some time (see below). We broke the Brexit key level and trend line formed by the previous down ABCD pattern. The 'TDI is overbought and we can expect some correction back to the previous structure before the final push to point E. Volume is showing increase on the move up and no demand at the bottom of the pullbacks. So will be waiting for a no demand candle at the pullback to previous structure to go long for the final push to E.
Short
by SteynTrade
USDZAR Where will the Rand go? Slowing downWith the Municipal elections over there seems to be some change in the air. The market seems to be defined by previous market structure and has reached the 61.8% retrace of the previous impulse. With the time running out for the downgrade to junk status for the Rand and a looming USD interest rate hike we may just see the end of the Rand's good run happening soon. For now the previous structure seems to be defining an area for some correction. Possibly there is some space for a little more Rand strength but then? Looking for the big change around the end of September.
Long
by SteynTrade
2
USDCAD still looking for completion of the retraceI was expecting the USDCAD to complete the correction of the BC leg down move at the 38% level. However, price moved down breaking the lows of the previous weeks and the market seems to be bearish now finding resistance at the yearlyPP. In spite of this the expectation is still to the significant resistance levels which include the 50sma, 38% retracement, SSB 50% level of the previous impulse move, and previous structure. Volumes are low and decreasing so the current down move is not supported by volume. So a potential move long is still expected.
Long
by SteynTrade
6
USDJPY Redistribution continuingWe are now in Phase B of the redistribution using a Wyckoff analysis. We are now building a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. Large institutions and large professional interests are still disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The COT non-commercial interest are still short and showed some increase last week. The large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance is still tilted toward supply instead of demand. Low volume interest is currently shown and 101 level is showing resistance.
Long
by SteynTrade
NZDUSD pullback gives good oppertunity to go longNZDUSD has shown good signs of strength. However, we see good rejection candles at the median line of the Pitchfork. Price still made a higher high (HH) even if only just. 'TDI is also showing some bearish sentiment . So we possibly could see a pullback this week to the lower median line of the Pitchfork. Notice the no demand candles (low volume small spread) at the bottom of the pullbacks. So I will be looking for a pullback this week to the lower median line. Then on a no demand candle will be looking to go long following the mark-up phase.
Short
by SteynTrade
AUDUSD mark-up startingPrice has moved away from the resistance line and yearly PP. Price has retested these levels and is now moving away from the resistance and trading range. There is consistent dominance of demand over supply. Signs of strength with widening price spreads and increasing volume and reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes is still observed. The 'TDI indicator is showing all lines sentiment lines above 50% but not over bought and move up. In the following weeks if the Wyckoff view was correct should see significant price increases.
Long
by SteynTrade
USDJPY corrective structure developingThe trading range has been set in phase A of the redistribution (using Wycoff theory) with a selling climax (SC), preliminary support (PS), automatic reaction (AR), secondary test (ST) . Also notice the volume spike at the SC and at the top of the trading range and low volume test of the bottom of the range. We can now expect the corrective structure to develop. I have drawn a view of a possible triangle structure that could form with potential ABCDE points. The two oscillation frequencies indicated by the larger and smaller pitchfork is also showing good confluence in pivot areas.
Long
by SteynTrade