Strength on FMC stockAfter publishing the February 5th 2025 earnings report, the FMC Corporation stock gapped down, losing almost 34% of its value. Moreover, nowadays, the company is under serious pressure after being accused of publishing false Sales and Inventory information and downgrading shares from "Buy" to "Neutral" by some analytic companies (e.g. Redburn). Logically, in such circumstances, prices should continue down, but as a matter of fact, it is not the case. Why?
First, the February 5th bar is a down bar on a huge (largest in the last 15 years) volume, which, according to Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), indicates professional buying. Then, 2 days later, professionals bought again and the market responded by the higher prices.
Finally, the gapped-down bar reached the level of the previous support (blue rectangle on the daily and weekly charts), which adds strength.
Even though it looks very bullish on the daily chart, the price should be tested before the rally. Therefore, we may expect a shallow correction to $35.13 - $36.34 or, if supply is still there, to $30.80-33.73.
If testing is successful and the up move begins, the potential resistance on the way up will be around $48.06-$48.73 and $52.65 - $54.54 areas.
Volumespreadanalysis
Weakness on HOOD stockRobinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) shares appear to have sold off after publishing its February 12th earnings report. Following the report's good news, the market gapped up on opening and triggered a buying surge, allowing professionals to sell. The next day, the price recovered on a significantly lower volume, indicating absence of the professional interest on the upside (weakness). Then, on February 18th, another selling took place, which absorbed the remaining demand and pushed the price below the low of the gapped-up bar. This is bearish behaviour.
It has to be noted that there were a few more selling activities in December 2024/January 2025 (red rectangles), making the overall situation on the stock even weaker.
Despite the serious weakness, we may still see a retracement up into the $62.09 - $65.21 area for either more selling or retesting of demand, after which a move down to the $41.04-$42.66 zone could be expected. In this case, the support might reappear around the $52.96 level and at the $49.56 - $50.19 area.
Strength on MRNADespite negative news, Moderna, Inc. stock is in a good position to rally. Its price has been falling since August 2021, but relatively big buys have begun to emerge since August 2024.
It has to be noted that on every bar with buying, volume is increasing, which is usually a sign of accumulation on a down move.
If the price breaks the $40.83 level (the high of the bar with the largest volume), then tests it on low volume later, and supply does not re-emerge in the $49.94 - $56.70 zone, this would signal the end of accumulation. In such a case, we could expect the move towards $102.90 - $118.10, and if shares would not be sold off there, it might go even higher to $156.94 - $163.19.
At the same time, if accumulation has not been finished yet, we may still see another leg down for more buying.
FLOT 1D Long Investment Trend TradeTrend Trade
+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ biggest volume 2Sp+?
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Monthly countertrend
"- short impulse
+ volumed T1
+ 2Sp+
+ bigger volume on test"
Yearly context
"+ long impulse
- correction"
Weakness on DIS stockThe stock of Walt Disney Company looks interesting from the VSA point of view.
The monthly chart shows that the price is now around the top of the horizontal channel formed after a year of down move (blue lines). On one side, there is professional buying in the background, which might resolve this sideways to the upside, but there is much more supply around market peaks from the other side, and that might lead to a down move.
Deeper analyses of the price action over the last few months on the daily chart show massive supply. Moreover, the price went below the selling zone (red rectangle) and returned to its bottom on a low decreasing volume, showing an absence of professional interest to participate in an up move.
So, to summarise it together:
As of now, this stock is weak . With a big probability, the price may fall to the bottom of the monthly sideways channel first and if no buying suddenly appears while the price breaks the $79.24 level, it could reach the $20.0-$30.0 area then.
If professionals buy around the channel bottom, the move-up will depend on the size of that buying, but will most probably push the price back to the monthly channel's top.
O 1H Long CounterTrend TradeCounterTrend Trade
- short impulse
+ volumed T1
+ volumed Sp
+ weak test
+ below first bullish bar close entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit expandable to Investment
Daily Trend:
"+ long impulse
+ exhaustion volume
+ T2 level
+ support level"
Monthly Trend:
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
- SOS broken"
Yearly Trend:
" + long balance
+ volumed manipulation
- neutral zone"
Strength on AMD stockAfter almost a year of down move, on February 5th 2025 a huge professional buying took place on Advanced Micro Devices Inc. stock (Ticker NASDAQ: AMD). Even though we've seen professional buying on that move before, the volume there was much lower and, as a result, caused small retracements up only. The volume on the February 5th daily bar has much bigger potential. Moreover, a few things are adding to the strength:
- Recent buying appeared on the market opening after the earnings report with an immediate price rise.
- The price returned into the area of big volume (blue rectangle) on relatively low volume, showing no professional interest in the downside (testing).
Therefore, if no supply reappears below or around the $116.37 level, we may see a rally towards $150.37 - $153.03 and even higher to $166.10 - $167.08 zone.
In case supply hits the market in the mentioned area, another professional buying could take place around $95.61.
Bullish behaviour on ADBE stockIt looks like, after half a year of retracement, Adobe Inc. stock (Ticker NASDAQ: ADBE) is now setting up for longs again.
On the gap-down daily bar following the December 11th 2024 earnings report, professionals bought. Then, over December and January 2025, more buying can be seen. It has to be noted that recent professional activity took place around the previous level of support ($433.97) which adds to the strength. By January 10th supply has been absorbed, in February the price pushed above the support level and has been tested with relatively low volume creating conditions for the move up.
Today's bar is a positive reaction to the recent testing and might be the beginning of the rally towards $566.79 - $576.30 with minor resistances around $482.66 - $489.52 and $541.74 on the way.
At the same time, as we've seen a high volume around the support level (January 27th, 28th and 31st bars), there is still the possibility of its re-testing and the beginning of the rally from there.
NVS 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ T2 level
+ support level
- biggest volume 2Sp-
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R within 1H range take profit
Daily Trend
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ JOC level
+ support level
- above 1/2 of entire 1D wave at the support level of 1M"
Monthly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ support level
+ JOC level
- unvolumed manipulation"
Yearly Trend
"+ long impulse
- resistance level
+ less than a month left and it looks to break
+ long volume distribution"
NVS @NYSE
Bought NVS Market, Day
Filled
8:27 AM
104.89325
Profit Taker
Sell NVS Limit 105.87, GTC
Submitted
8:27 AM
SMLT 1D Aggressive Investment CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade
- short impulse
+ biggest volume T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume 2Sp+
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
CounterTrend 1M
"+ short impulse
+ biggest volume TE / T1 level
+ support level
+ biggest manipulation?"
Trend 12M
"+ SOS test level
- far below 1/2 correction
+ support level
+ biggest volume manipulation?"
They say company is going to bankruptcy, but why would it concern technical analysis?!
Bitcoin - New All time high incomingAs you can see, Bitcoin is about to close a weekly candle over the previous VSA resistance. $TRUMP token has also pushed bullish narrative onto public therefore I think that this correction is over.
Next stop is around 127k and after that we should reconsider whether there will be continuation or that's it.
XLV Swing Long 1H Conservative CounterTrend TradeConservative CounterTrend Trade
+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ T2 level
+ biggest volume Sp
- resistance level
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to2 R/R take profit before 1/2 of the Day
Daily Context
"- short impulse
- unvolumed T1
+ support level
+ volumed Sp"
Monthly Context
"+ long impulse
- SOS level broken
- far below 1/2 correction"
Yearly Context
"+ long impulse
- resistance level"
NLMK 1H Long Swing Trend TradeTrend Trade
+ short impulse
+ support level
+ biggest volume T1?
- 1 bar reversal?
+ volumed 2Sp
+ weak test to 1/2
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable virtual stop
1 to 2 R/R expandable to 1D if closed Sp take profit
Daily Trend
" + long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ JOC level
+ support level
+ volumed manipulation"
Monthly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ support level
+ volumed manipulation"
HUBB 1H Long Swing Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade
- short impulse
+ biggest volume TE / T1 level
+ support level
+ boggest volume Sp
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily Trend
"+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ 1/2 correction
+ support level"
Monthly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ 1/2 correction
+ support level"
Yearly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ neutral zone"
PIKK 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ T2 level ? (new spread)
+ support level
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily context
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
- SOS level above JOC
+ support level
+ volumed Sp
+ weak test"
Monthly context
"- short impulse
+ volumed T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume 2Sp+ in 4d"
Yearly context
"- no trend
- context direction short"
SMLT 1H Swing Long Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade
- short impulse
- unvolumed T1
+ support level
+ volumed 2Sp+
+ weak test
+ biggest volume first buying bar close entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ volumed T1
+ support level
+ volumed manipulation"
Monthly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ support level
+ biggest volume manipulation"
Yearly trend
"+ T1 level
+ support level
+ biggest volume manipulation?"
LLY 1H Swing Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade
- short impulse
+ volumed TE / T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar close entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily Context
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
- expanding T2
+ support level
+ volumed manipulation"
Monthly Context
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ T2 level
+ support level
- biggest volume manipulation"
Yearly Context
"+ long impulse
- neutral zone"
AFKS Swing 1H Long Conservative CounterTrend TradeConservative CounterTrend Trade
+ long balance
+ 1/2 correction
+ volumed ICE level
+ support level
+ biggest volume 2Sp-
+ weak test
- above first bullish bar close entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily Context
"- short impulse
+ volumed TE / T1 level
+ volumed manipulation
+ support level"
Monthly Context
"- short impulse
+ biggest volume T1 level
- below 1/2 correction
+ support level
- one bar reversal?!"
Yearly Context
"- short impulse
- neutral zone"
BDL - An update and a VSA Learning ExerciseThis is just a learning exercise. We had anticipated a good move from this stock. However, 1230 was the trigger point for the Up move Now let us do a bar to bar analysis.
Refer the box marked “A”. We can see there was a sideways move or a consolidation happening. We can see the prices clustering together and the volume became low. It Indicated accumulation going on.
Refer to the bar marked “B”. It is an up bar with increased volume. This bar was an indication that things are about to change.
Refer to the Bar marked “C”. The next bar is a wide spread bar going past the trigger point, ending near the top. Also, we can see the volume increased volume indicating a high probable Breakout.
And today's bar (marked “D’) opened up above the previous close. The bar did see some selling, but finally it overcame the selling and closed up. Of course, the spread was not, the spread was narrow indicating selling pressure still present.
We can see the stock has started its up move and it is all supported by increased volume and the momentum. The price action momentum is also driven by volume and we can see increased relative strength. All that support further up move and the first obstacle we could see would be 1365, where we may see some more consolidation before further up move. This whole exercise is just for learning purpose.
BDL - On the Recovery ModeCurrently we can see many of stocks which had substantially come down from their highs are in the recovery mode. We will be covering some of these in the coming few days. We will start with the first one which is Bharat Dynamics Ltd.
The stock saw a bearish down move of more than 15% and ended up below the 200 DMA. Now it looks like it is on the recovery mode. It has crossed above the 200 DMA and the short-term moving averages. Also, it has broken the supply line as well. We can see good volume support coming in. All key parameters like the relative strength, money flow, buying pressure and the volume adjusted momentum all seem to be favouring the up move. The stocks saw a quick up move, then it saw a small consolidation and has started resuming the up move. We can see a break of structure on the daily time frame. Now the stock is making a higher high and higher low structure and is likely to continue the up move. We could see a substantial up move and the stock could test the previous high of 1770. Of course, the overall market situation should also support the move. However, the downside is now capped and we can see more upside only.
HUDCO - On the recovery Path ? The next recovery stock which we are going to look at is HUDCO or the Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited. The stock saw a drop or reversal of 15% and was pushed below the 200 DMA and from there it has been recovering. As you can see now, it is above the 200 DMA and also the short-term moving averages. It has started making a higher high on the daily. It is also making a higher high on the weekly as well. All the supporting key parameters are all positive, the relative strength, the money flow, buying pressure, all are quite positive and is supporting further up move. We can see good increase in the delivery volumes indicating committed buying. So, the stock could test the previous high of 350 levels. Of course, it is not going to be a quick up move, it is going to be a grinding up move, but definitely it is likely to move up. The risk reward ratio also is looking quite good at this moment. So, this is a stock to be watched.
ALRS 5M Conservative CounterTrend DayTradeConservative CounterTrend Trade
- long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
- SOS level
+ support level
+ volumed 2Sp+
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit slightly above 1 H range
Transferrable to Swing after closes test and resumes buying on 1H
Transferrable to Investment trade after ends test and resumes buying on 1D
1H CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ 1/2 correction
- unvolumed T1
+ support level
- volumed 2Sp-
+ test"
Daily CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ volumed T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test"
Monthly CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ volumed TE / T1
+ support level
+ volumed Sp
+ test"
Yearly trend
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ T2 level
+ support level
+ manipulation"