Gold first targetOANDA:XAUUSD Careful at support zone 3.247 3.324.
possible first target 3.324 - 3.345
Volume
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US 100 Cash CFD (1H) using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 20,780
Value Area Low (VAL): 20,020
Point of Control (POC):
Recent: 20,066.23
Historical: 19,824.71
High-volume nodes: Dense volume around 19,820–20,070 suggests strong accumulation
Low-volume gaps: 20,200–20,400 and 20,600–20,780 (rapid price movement zones)
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stops likely clustered:
Below 20,070 (last breakout support)
Above 20,800 (recent intraday high)
Absorption zones: Near 20,066 – notable price base before rally; high delta confirms buying interest
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 20,808 – fresh high with slowing momentum, possible exhaustion
Swing Low: 19,824.71 – firm bottom established, high volume zone pre-breakout
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Strong uptrend confirmed by consistent CVD rise and price breakout
ADX Strength:
ADX > 20 with DI+ > DI- – Confirmed bullish trend
CVD Confirmation:
Rising CVD + sustained price breakout = strong buyer demand in the rally leg
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
20,066.23 (POC and structural breakout base)
19,824.71 (historical accumulation and value base)
Resistance:
20,808 (recent high)
21,000 (psychological level + projected target zone)
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Confirmed Swing Low (Gann): 19,824.71
Retracement Levels from 20,808 High:
1/2: 20,316
2/3: 20,482 (key support if price dips)
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Bullish trend established (confirmed by CVD & ADX)
b) Notable Patterns:
Breakout from consolidation with volume near 20,066
Parallel ascending channel forming – healthy trend structure
Price currently testing upper boundary of channel – watch for breakout or pullback
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 20,320 – 20,400 (pullback into Gann retracement zone)
Targets:
T1: 20,808 (prior high)
T2: 21,100 (channel projection + round level)
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,020 (below VAL + swing low support)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: 20,800 – 20,850 (if rejection pattern forms with falling CVD)
Target:
T1: 20,066 (volume base)
Stop-Loss (SL): 21,100
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade, based on distance from entry to SL
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) – 1H Timeframe Using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 3,360.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 3,220.00
Point of Control (POC): 3,234.30 (current session), 3,382.79 (previous session)
High-volume nodes: 3,255 – 3,275 range shows emerging absorption
Low-volume gaps: 3,280 – 3,300 and 3,340 – 3,360 indicate potential resistance zones
b) Liquidity Zones:
Clustered Stops: Around 3,300 (swing high), 3,220 (recent swing low)
Absorption Zones: POC zone at 3,234.3 with heavy CVD divergence and bounce
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 3,382.79 – confirmed rejection with strong volume and price reversal
Swing Low: 3,234.30 – high-volume absorption, currently acting as support
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Currently range-bound with minor bullish divergence forming
ADX Strength:
ADX ≈ 18 – weak trend, choppy conditions
CVD Confirmation:
Recent rising CVD despite flat price = hidden demand
Past falling CVD + bearish move to 3,234.3 = strong supply area confirmed
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
3,234.30 (POC)
3,220.00 (VAL and swing low)
Resistance:
3,275.00 (minor rejection zone)
3,300.00 (psychological + structure)
3,360.00 (VAH)
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Confirmed Gann Swing Low: 3,234.30
Retracement Levels from 3,382.79 High:
1/2: 3,308.55
2/3: 3,316.86
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Currently range-bound, transitioning with a potential bullish breakout bias
b) Notable Patterns:
Emerging ascending wedge/channel forming in recent candles
Prior double-bottom near 3,234 with bullish CVD divergence
Testing lower trendline (accumulation possibility)
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 3,240 – 3,250
Targets:
T1: 3,275
T2: 3,308
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,220
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: 3,300 – 3,308 (near wedge resistance)
Target:
T1: 3,234
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,360
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade. Calculate position size based on SL distance and capital base.
Bitcoin: Sellers Still Holding Their GroundHey traders and investors!
On the daily and weekly timeframes – sideways ranges (boundaries marked in black on the chart). The current initiative is from the seller.
📌 Yesterday, the seller made an effort to push the price down — this shouldn't be ignored.
📊 Targets on the chart:
Weekly TF: 96,500
Daily TF: 89,256
10-day TF: 99,475 (upper boundary of the buyer zone)
Although I expect the price to continue moving up, it's not advisable to look for buy setups until clear signs of buyer strength appear.
🚨 Selling is risky (details in the post about the 10-day TF).
👀 Observing.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
5/13 Gold Trading Signals🌞Good afternoon everyone!
Yesterday, gold successfully entered the 3218–3198 buy zone, delivering notable profits.
So far, the price has tested both the 3218 support and the 3246 resistance multiple times, reflecting a fierce battle between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, bulls appear slightly favored in the short term, with major resistance located between 3286–3320.
⚠️ However, if gold fails to break through this area and reverses, it may initiate a medium-term downtrend, potentially falling toward the 3169–3110 zone.
📌 Trading Recommendations for Today:
Sell Zone: 3305 – 3330
Buy Zone: 3208 – 3178
Flexible Trading Ranges:
▫️ 3218 – 3252
▫️ 3282 – 3248
▫️ 3252 – 3303
S&P 500 – an ascending channel on Daily Daily Chart (D1) :
I'm observing an ascending channel, with a potential manipulation near its lower boundary.
If that happens, we may see the formation of a bullish pivot point.
Hourly Chart (H1) :
I've marked the boundaries of the daily channel on H1.
There’s an unfilled gap below, and price might revisit that area.
I’m watching the 5690.7 level closely — it could act as a key zone for potential long setups.
📈 If 5690.7 holds , possible long targets include:
🎯 A break above the local high at 5848
🎯 The upper boundary of the channel, which closely aligns with the anticipated bullish pivot point target
📉 If price fails to hold above 5690.7 and breaks lower,
I’ll start considering short scenarios and will update this idea accordingly.
Force motors a strong stockThis is what a strong stock looks like in volatile market. Quick bounce to new high ground after a short pullback.
Due to market pressure stock briefly crossed all time highs but came back in the same day of breakout.
But now as the geopolitical situation improved stock quickly bounced back to all time highs with high relative volume. This shows the strength in stock and kind of support to stock.
Keep watching NSE:FORCEMOT
DIS is already at $96.… Don’t miss the train!🚨 🎢✨Disney (DIS) is pushing up and showing strength — are you watching this move? 👀 We’ve been eyeing entry levels between $91 and $81, but with the price at $96.30, this setup is heating up faster than expected! 🔥
Sometimes the perfect dip doesn’t come — and waiting too long can mean watching the rocket 🚀 from the sidelines. If you’re still tracking DIS, this might be your sign to stay alert and have your strategy ready. 🎯
Potential targets? Still aiming for that juicy $100–$120 range if momentum continues! 📈💰
Let’s see how it plays out — keep your plan tight and emotions out. Are you in, or still waiting? 😎👇
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
ZARJPY - (3 hours chart, OANDA) - Long Position; Short-term.ZARJPY - South African Rand / Japanese Yen (3 hours chart, OANDA) - Long Position; Short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {volume & support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 1.9
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 8.084
Entry limit ~ 8.050 on May 12, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 8.160 (+1.37%; +0.110 points)
2. Target limit ~ 8.250 (+2.48%; +0.200 points)
Stop order limit ~ 7.945 (-1.30%; -0.105 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
NASDAQ - continue with the UptrendOn NASDAQ , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 20150.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5684.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
GOLD Correction: Volunacci's TargetPerfect Volunacci formation, tested the golden zone of the top candle's spread and is going to hit It's target !
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US 100 Cash CFD (1H) using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 20,500
Value Area Low (VAL): 20,000 (approx. based on volume shading)
Point of Control (POC): 20,062.08
High-volume nodes: Dense around 20,050–20,100 – indicative of value acceptance.
Low-volume gaps: Sharp price movement through 20,150–20,250 – price could revisit here swiftly.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop Cluster Zones:
Order Absorption Zones:
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High Volume Spike: Near 20,500 – rejection occurred with CVD flattening.
Swing Low Volume Spike: 20,000 – strong reversal point, indicates buyer interest.
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Uptrend currently, but potential divergence forming.
ADX Strength:
CVD Confirmation:
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
Resistance:
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Confirmed High: 20,506
Recent Confirmed Low: 20,000
Retracements:
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Short-term Bullish, but with early signs of divergence (based on projected price/CVD path)
Confirmed by breakout above POC with rising CVD initially.
b) Notable Patterns:
Ascending Channel Breakout: Strong push above upper boundary on momentum.
Volume Gap Fill Potential: Price may return to 20,250 or lower on exhaustion.
POC Retest Scenario: High probability of price testing 20,062 if strength fades.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If uptrend sustains):
Entry Zone: 20,250–20,300 (channel midpoint or pullback after breakout)
Targets:
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,150 (below volume gap midpoint)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If divergence confirms):
Entry Zone: 20,500–20,525 (fakeout/stop hunt zone)
Target:
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,600
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing: Risk 1–2% of capital per trade.
CHFZAR - Swiss Franc / S A Rand (Daily chart, OANDA) - LongCHFZAR - Swiss Franc / South African Rand (Daily chart, OANDA) - Long Position; Mid-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {Volatility risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 5
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 21.81000
Entry limit ~ 21.65000 on May 12, 2025
Target limit ~ 22.65000 (+4.62%)
Stop order limit ~ 21.45000 (-0.92%)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) – 1H Timeframe using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 3,382.24
Value Area Low (VAL): 3,275.00 (approximate visual level)
Point of Control (POC): 3,338.10
High-Volume Nodes: Concentrated around 3,338–3,350 (volume acceptance zone).
Low-Volume Gaps: Sharp drop region near 3,310 to 3,295 indicates a lack of market interest – prone to fast moves.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop Cluster Zones:
Order Absorption Zones:
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High (Volume Spike): Near 3,381–3,382 (sharp rejection, bearish orderflow).
Swing Low (Volume Spike): 3,272–3,275 zone, likely buyer absorption.
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Downtrend (recent bearish pressure from CVD with price).
ADX Strength:
CVD Confirmation:
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
Resistance:
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Confirmed High: 3,382
Recent Confirmed Low: 3,272
Retracements from High to Low:
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Bearish-Ranging Hybrid
Confirmed by low ADX (weak trend) but bearish pressure from CVD + lower highs.
b) Notable Patterns:
Bearish Flag: Price consolidating inside a descending channel after a breakdown.
POC Retest Failure: Indicates inability to reclaim value area – bearish bias.
Projection Path: Shows two outcomes – further drift down vs. range reclaim, with downside currently dominant.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bearish Entry (CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: 3,325–3,330 (POC rejection zone)
Target:
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,345 (above 1/3 Gann level and rejection wick)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): Minimum 1:2
b) Bullish Entry (only if reclaim confirmed above POC):
Entry Zone: 3,340–3,345 (on confirmed reclaim with bullish CVD crossover)
Targets:
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,325 (below reclaim point)
RR: 1:2 minimum
c) Position Sizing: Risk 1–2% of capital per trade.
BTC - Ready for a breakout?Hey traders and investors!
On the 10-day chart, an intriguing situation is unfolding.
Sellers tested the Key Candle of the previous accumulation breakout — level 89,256, and the buyer’s initiative resumed.
Then, a manipulation (false breakout) occurred at the 89,256 test level. Volumes reveal the narrative: sellers sold off at high volumes, while buyers absorbed on declining volumes.
Now, a buyer zone has formed below, with the upper boundary at 99,475.
Just a few steps away from the ATH. A pullback is always possible, but for now, there are no signs of weakness (even a pullback to 89,256 wouldn't disrupt the bullish structure).
Now, the main question:
💡 How far up? +30,000?
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Litecoin just broke every major EMA on the D1 — in one candle.LTC just broke every major EMA on the D1 — in one candle.
Reversal confirmed. Momentum ignited.
$100 is the new battleground.
Break and hold → next stop $120–$130
Don’t sleep on #Litecoin
Ripple: Potential for Growth!Hey traders and investors!
🚀 Many crypto assets have reached their local targets.
I can’t predict what will happen next, but I can track how new candles shift the probability of continued growth or decline.
Ripple has strong growth potential.
Both the weekly and daily timeframes show sideways ranges (marked by black lines), with the buyer’s initiative active.
Decision candles (IKC)* on both timeframes interacted with the lower boundary of the buyer’s initiative.
A buyer zone has formed on the weekly timeframe near the lower boundary — marked by a blue rectangle on the chart.
With targets aligning on both timeframes, there’s 25% to first target.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
* Decision candles — candles with increased volume inside initiatives. IKC — the highest-volume candle within initiatives inside a sideways range
Wishing you profitable trades!
Price Action + CVD + VWAP FRVP correlated with DXY🎯 ALGORITHMIC - Mentorship: Friday 09.05.25 during New York session, we traded Price Action + CVD + VWAP FRVP correlated with EU-DXY and we started with CVD Divergency - Apsortion allowing us a trading idea which translated into 1 trade executions on same logic.
Then we got an understanding that price was at the 3rd standard deviation using the VWAP and that the VAH correlated perfectly with an FVG created at M15.
During the trade we spoted a triple support in which we concluded that was an iceberg order by using EUR-USD futures 6EM(jun 25 contract) to get aquainted with order flow and confirm the iceberg which was later breached creating a new resistence.
The LTF, MTF Market structure showed a nice MMSM Market Makers Seller Model forming so we jumped in. Our target.... POC - Point of Control.....
Elevate your trading game with this deep-dive into algorithmic setups! In this session (Friday, May 9, 2025, New York hours) we combine classic Price Action with advanced flow tools—CVD, VWAP (including FRVP bands), and FX correlations—to hunt high-probability entries. Here’s what you’ll learn:
🔍 Session Breakdown
Trading View Analysis Chart:
- M3 -
- M15 -
- CVD Divergence & Absorption – Spot the imbalance that kick-started our first edge and trade execution.
- VWAP 3σ Reversion – Identify when price strays to the third standard deviation and pairs up with a Volume Area High that lines up with an M15 Fair Value Gap.
- Iceberg Order Detection – Use EUR/USD futures (6EM, Jun ’25 contract) to confirm hidden liquidity pools at triple-level support, then capitalize when they fliped to resistance creating a new pull back so we re-entered new position enforcing our logic.
- Market Structure & MMSM – Read the multi-timeframe swing highs and lows to pinpoint the Market Makers’ Seller Model—and know exactly when to strike.
🎯 Trade Execution & Outcome
- Entry triggered by a confluence of CVD setup + VWAP deviation + FVG validation
- Confirmation via order-flow iceberg break
- Target: Point of Control (POC)
📈 Key Takeaways
- How to fuse Price Action with CVD and VWAP for algorithmic precision
- Techniques to spot and trade iceberg orders in real time
- MTF structural analysis for aligning with institutional flows
Waiting for Altseason?Hey traders and investors!
🚀 Overview of the Altcoin Market without BTC & ETH (TOTAL3)
📊 Volume Analysis of TOTAL3:
Previous POC: $1.7 trillion — the level where volumes accumulated after the last rally and correction.
Current POC: $820 billion — the level where major volumes have concentrated over the past 5 weeks. This is 10% below the current market cap.
To the Previous POC: There's still 19% potential upside to reach the previous POC.
📈 What Does It Mean?
The shift in POC downwards suggests buyers are active at $820 billion, potentially forming a new support zone and a point for continued growth.
💬 What do you think — a signal for growth or just calm before another drop? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Wishing you profitable trades!
OptionsMastery: MARA Inverse H&S!🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
ETH Surges 20% Post-Pectra: Crypto's Ultimate Comeback?Ether Clocks 'Insane' 20% Candle Post-Pectra — A Turning Point?
The cryptocurrency market witnessed a remarkable event as Ethereum (ETH) surged by an impressive 20% following the successful implementation of the Pectra hard fork. This dramatic price movement has caught the attention of traders, investors, and analysts alike, sparking intense debate about whether this represents a genuine turning point for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization or merely a temporary respite in a challenging market environment.
The Pectra Catalyst
The Pectra hard fork, representing one of Ethereum's most significant technical upgrades since its transition to proof-of-stake, was successfully implemented in early 2025. This upgrade introduced crucial improvements to the Ethereum network, including enhanced transaction processing efficiency, reduced gas fees, and expanded smart contract functionality.
Unlike previous upgrades that sometimes resulted in "buy the rumor, sell the news" reactions, Pectra's implementation appears to have triggered substantial positive price action. The 20% candle marked Ethereum's largest single-day gain in over 18 months, propelling ETH past the crucial $1,900 resistance level that had previously acted as a ceiling for price movements.
The timing of the upgrade coincided with increasing institutional interest in Ethereum, creating perfect conditions for a significant price movement. Data from on-chain analytics platforms indicates that large wallet addresses began accumulating ETH in the weeks leading up to Pectra, suggesting informed capital was positioning ahead of the technical catalyst.
Institutional Buying Signals
On-chain metrics reveal compelling evidence of institutional participation in Ethereum's recent surge. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported a substantial increase in large-value transactions exceeding $1 million in the 72 hours surrounding the Pectra implementation, with transaction volume reaching levels not seen since late 2023.
Several key metrics support this institutional narrative:
1. Exchange outflows have accelerated, with over 200,000 ETH leaving centralized exchanges in a single 48-hour period post-Pectra, indicating buyers intend to hold rather than trade.
2. The number of addresses holding more than 1,000 ETH increased by 2.8% in just one week, representing substantial accumulation by wealthy entities.
3. Futures open interest has expanded by over $2 billion since the Pectra announcement, demonstrating increased leveraged positioning.
4. Options markets show a significant skew toward calls, with the put/call ratio reaching its lowest level in 14 months.
These metrics collectively suggest that smart money sees the Pectra upgrade as a legitimate inflection point for Ethereum rather than a temporary technical bounce.
The Long Position Explosion
Perhaps most intriguing is the dramatic increase in long positions across various trading platforms. Data from cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges shows that long-to-short ratios have reached levels not seen since Ethereum's previous major bull run in 2021.
This positioning dynamic creates an interesting technical setup where further price increases could trigger a positive feedback loop as short sellers are forced to cover their positions, potentially accelerating ETH's upward movement.
Retail Sell-Off vs. Whale Accumulation
A fascinating dynamic has emerged in Ethereum's market structure: while retail investors appear to be reducing exposure, larger entities ("whales") are aggressively accumulating. This divergence in behavior between market participants has created an unusual tension in ETH's price action.
Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that addresses holding between 0.1 and 10 ETH have decreased their collective holdings by approximately 3% over the past month, indicating retail profit-taking or repositioning. Simultaneously, addresses holding over 1,000 ETH have increased their positions by nearly 7%.
This pattern often emerges during major market transitions, where retail participants, scarred by previous drawdowns, remain skeptical of recovery signals while institutional investors position for longer-term trends based on fundamental catalysts.
This dynamic creates an interesting market structure where future price movements may depend on which cohort ultimately proves correct in their assessment of Ethereum's prospects.
Technical Breakout Analysis
From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum's 20% surge represents a significant breakout from multiple resistance levels that had contained price action for months. The move pushed ETH decisively above its 200-day moving average, a key indicator watched by trend-following traders.
The volume profile accompanying the move also supports the legitimacy of the breakout, with transaction volume reaching its highest level in nine months. This high-volume breakout typically indicates strong conviction behind the price movement rather than a technical fake-out.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), while showing overbought conditions in the short term, has broken out of a long-term downtrend on higher timeframes, suggesting potential for sustained momentum despite possible near-term consolidation.
Macro Context and Ethereum's Narrative Shift
Ethereum's dramatic move occurs against a complex macroeconomic backdrop that had previously contributed to crypto market weakness. Recent signals of potential monetary policy shifts, including discussions of rate cuts by central banks, have created a more favorable environment for risk assets broadly.
Beyond pure price action, Ethereum's narrative has evolved considerably in recent months. After facing criticism regarding high transaction fees and scaling limitations, the successful implementation of Pectra addresses several key concerns that had dampened enthusiasm for the network.
The upgrade's focus on reducing gas fees and improving transaction throughput directly counters the competitive threats from alternative Layer 1 and Layer 2 solutions that had been gaining traction by positioning themselves as more efficient alternatives to Ethereum.
This narrative rehabilitation, combined with Ethereum's established network effects and developer ecosystem, creates compelling fundamental support for the recent price action.
Sustainability Questions and Potential Challenges
While enthusiasm surrounding Ethereum's post-Pectra surge runs high, significant questions remain regarding the sustainability of this momentum. Several potential challenges could impact ETH's trajectory in the coming months:
1. Technical Overextension: The speed and magnitude of the 20% move have pushed short-term technical indicators into overbought territory, potentially setting up conditions for a correctional pullback.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: The evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, particularly regarding potential security classifications and staking activities, continues to create background uncertainty for Ethereum.
3. Competitive Pressures: Despite Pectra's improvements, alternative blockchains continue to innovate rapidly, potentially challenging Ethereum's dominance in specific use cases.
4. Macro Reversal Risk: Any shift back toward hawkish monetary policy could negatively impact risk assets broadly, potentially including Ethereum despite its technological progress.
5. Execution Risk: While Pectra's implementation was successful, future technical upgrades still carry execution risk that could impact market confidence.
Conclusion: A Genuine Turning Point?
As market participants attempt to determine whether Ethereum's "insane" 20% candle represents a genuine turning point or a temporary deviation, the weight of evidence increasingly suggests this could indeed mark a significant inflection point in ETH's market cycle.
The confluence of technical breakouts, on-chain accumulation signals, derivative positioning, and fundamental improvements through the Pectra upgrade creates a compelling case for sustained momentum. The divergence between retail selling and institutional accumulation further supports the notion that a meaningful market transition may be underway.
However, sustainable price appreciation will likely require continued technical execution, expanding adoption metrics, and at minimum, a neutral macro environment that doesn't actively handicap risk assets.
For investors and traders, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum can build upon this momentum or if the surge represents another false dawn in a challenging market. But regardless of short-term price action, the successful implementation of Pectra unquestionably strengthens Ethereum's long-term value proposition as a leading blockchain infrastructure platform.
M&M -Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (2 hours chart, NSE) - LongM&M -Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {volume structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 4.78
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 2935
Entry limit ~2930 to 2910 (Avg. - 2920) on April 30, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 3015 (+3.25%; +95 points)
2. Target limit ~ 3135 (+7.36%; +215 points)
Stop order limit ~ 2875 (-1.54%; -45 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
