TLRY | Time for MJ to POP! | LONGTilray Brands, Inc. is a global cannabis-lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company, which focuses on medical cannabis research and the cultivation, processing, and distribution of cannabis products worldwide. It operates through the followings segments: Cannabis Business, Distribution Business, Beverage Alcohol Business, and Wellness Business. The company was founded on January 24, 2018 and is headquartered in Leamington, Canada.
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Bitcoin - A quarter of a million dollars - is it possible?Good Morning, Good Evening!
A new year brings new candles, new opportunities and new challenges. I decided to write down my new thoughts and, where appropriate, reflect on my previous analyses.
Naturally, my primary focus is on the asset that leads the cryptocurrency market – Bitcoin.
I must mention that I am not someone with formal education in this field. I am self-taught, placing a strong emphasis on using Technical Analysis as the main component of my decision-making process. This stems from my belief that although the chart is difficult to read, it largely allows for the interpretation of the hidden intentions of "smart money." I want to stress that the following words reflect only my personal point of view, which may not be correct, and that this publication is by no means investment or educational advice as understood by any law regulating such matters. I simply intend to ramble about topics I don’t fully understand.
Background
Since its inception, Bitcoin has been in a continuous long-term upward trend. Throughout this time, there have been four minor reaccumulation structures and four major ones, occurring chronologically. Each structure has taken progressively longer to form, and the upward trend has been gradually flattening over time.
Technical Analysis and Thoughts
In this analysis, I will apply tools from volume analysis, Wyckoff methodology, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), and Elliott Wave Theory.
At the beginning, I will refer to an analysis I published about a year and a half ago on this platform: "Comparative Analysis of BTC," 24.09.2023 (links attached).
Looking back at my previous analysis, I see that my reasoning and chosen tools were correct. As is often the case in attempts to master the market using Technical Analysis, the price action deviated from the expected scenario. However, the primary trend remained intact.
I missed certain key structures, such as the Spring, which I would interpret differently today. But I will get to that later.
The key resistance levels, derived from price structure and Fibonacci extensions, appear to have been recognized by the market. The price stalled just below the resistance level at 2.618, an extension based on the Spring-Buying Exhaustion range from 2015 and 2017/2018 reaccumulation phases.
Similarly, the external measurement of 1.618, calculated from the 2017/2018 Spring to the 2021 Upthrust, was respected by market participants. Both levels align perfectly with significant price points.
I mentioned that today I would approach the topic differently. This is due to the revealed market structure (it's always easier to analyze when you can see everything, right? 😉) as well as the experience I've gained by continuously expanding my analytical horizon.
Looking at the latest high-order reaccumulation structure (December 2021 – March 2024), I realize I made an error in my interpretation. The overall price action indicates a lack of supply around the $16K level.
Interestingly, BTC/USDT on Binance shows significant accumulation, which I deduce from Bag Holding candles.
The core point of my argument is that I have witnessed the formation of a large accumulation structure, whose elements align with the Wyckoff methodology. The market behaved as expected based on this interpretation.
One particularly important element is the Last Point of Supply (LPS), represented by the March 2024 – November 2024 reaccumulation phase. I discussed this process in detail in my September 6, 2024 publication titled "Bitcoin – Technical Analysis."
The ~250-day trading range, during which the price was stuck, allowed Smart Money to accumulate assets from those willing to sell. Despite the temporary stagnation, which I currently observe, the upward trend will likely continue.
The strength of this trend is confirmed by the use of volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the Test of Phase C, according to Wyckoff's methodology.
When analyzing the three most recent tests in the three highest-order reaccumulation structures, I observe that the price moves within a channel defined by the second and third standard deviations.
I think that the current sideways structure is a Back Up to the Creek from the latest high-order reaccumulation phase. Its characteristics resemble a reaccumulation phase.
At this stage, I am unsure whether this structure will directly lead to a breakout to significantly higher price levels, or whether it will result in an Upthrust of a higher-order structure, followed by another Spring.
The structure shows declining volume and several Bag Holding candles, marked with green arrows on my chart.
The Upthrust does not exhibit distribution characteristics but instead suggests a lack of demand.
The candle marked with a question mark is interesting due to its dual nature. However, upon closer examination of the 4-hour interval, it appears to be an Upthrust of a lower-tier structure, aimed at absorbing supply.
I want to highlight the relationship between the Test of Phase C and the structure forming along previous peaks.
Considering the two most recent reaccumulation phases, the situation is as follows:
I do not take into account overly optimistic price movements that exceed the 8.0 external retracement level, due to the flattening of the global trend over time.
Instead, I consider more realistic targets based on Fibonacci levels, such as 3.618 and 2.618 extensions, indicating a price range between $170K and $230K.
In my September 24, 2023 analysis, I mentioned $240K as a 3.618 external retracement level measured from March 2020 to October 2021.
Using 1:1 geometry, I estimate that the price could reach around $250K, which aligns with my other methods.
Conclusion of the Analysis
I have presented various methods to identify the direction and potential range of Bitcoin's price movement.
Although it is difficult to pinpoint the exact peak of the trend, the analysis provides sufficient signals to expect supply levels within the indicated price ranges.
Confirmation of a trend reversal would require a high-order distribution structure visible on higher time frames.
Final Thoughts
I have intentionally referred to my previous analyses to maintain continuity and to highlight both successes and mistakes.
The purpose of this reflection is to improve my analytical process by identifying what I did well and where I need to focus more in future analyses.
I believe that Technical Analysis, practiced for over a century, holds a certain beauty and logic. The process of applying it, and reaping its rewards, is an intellectual delight.
Ultimately, the weakest link is not the tool, but the person using it. Therefore, continuous improvement and patience are essential. The chart is the only reliable source that reveals the intentions of Smart Money or Composite Man, depending on the interpretation of market personality.
Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts. I hope you found them insightful, and that your time was well spent.
Wishing you health, perseverance, and successful trades.
May you master the art of recognizing well-formed market structures.
CatTheTrader
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 01/06/2025This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Technical Analysis on Advent Technologies Holdings (ADN)The chart for ADN clearly illustrates its performance: a rapid surge at the end of 2020, followed by a consistent decline from 2021, leading to a 99% drop in value.
After reaching its lows around $1.70, the stock entered a sideways consolidation phase that lasted several months. It then staged a strong recovery with a gap away and a breakout of the descending trendline.
Currently, the stock is in a compression phase, forming a Triangle pattern, with converging highs and lows.
Bullish Scenario
In a bullish scenario, a breakout above the triangle is required, ideally accompanied by an increase in trading volumes.
The Volume Profile indicates the absence of significant resistance levels that could hinder the upward movement.
Bearish Scenario
In a bearish scenario, the stock would need to break below the triangle. However, the Volume Profile highlights a high-volume node represented by the rectangle, which also contains the POC (Point of Control).
Before a sustained decline can occur, the stock would need to breach this strong support zone.
EUR/JPY Resistance with Fair Volume GapOn EUR/JPY , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 164.480. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Fair Volume GAP (FVG) and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
USD/JPY continue with the UptrendOn USD/JPY , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 156.210.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
GMTUSDT: Breakout or Pullback? Long Position Ready to LaunchHey, traders! 🐂
Today, BINANCE:GMTUSDT is in the spotlight. The price is holding at 0.16123 USDT , and the chart is forming an ascending triangle — one of the most popular bullish patterns. Resistance at 0.16425 USDT has been tested multiple times, but bears are still holding the line. Will it break through, or should we expect a pullback?
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🔑 Key Levels:
Support:
0.16330 USDT – the nearest point for a retest.
0.16000 USDT – the main line of defense for buyers.
Resistance:
0.16425 USDT – the current zone that needs to be breached.
0.16643 USDT – the first target after a breakout.
0.16986 USDT – the final target for the long position.
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🚩 Trading Strategy:
Entry Point:
- Consider going long after a confident breakout above 0.16425 USDT , confirmed by volume.
Stop-Loss:
- Place your stop below 0.16100 USDT to minimize risks.
Take-Profit Targets:
0.16643 USDT – the first target where partial profits can be taken.
0.16986 USDT – the final target if the momentum continues.
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📈 Technical Analysis:
The ascending triangle signals growing strength among buyers.
Volume is increasing near the resistance zone, confirming bullish activity.
A retest of 0.16425 USDT before the breakout presents an excellent entry opportunity.
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💡 What to Expect?
If the 0.16425 USDT level is broken, we have every chance of seeing a strong upward move. However, if bears maintain their resistance, a pullback to support at 0.16000 USDT is likely. What’s your take? Share your ideas — collective wisdom always wins! 🚀
XAUUSD. Trading opportunityHey traders and investors!
Happy New Year to everyone!
Wishing you health, energy, and success in all your endeavors!
Patience, composure, and perseverance in mastering the intricacies of the markets!
On the daily timeframe, there is a range. The current buyer's vector is 7-8, with a potential target of 2721 (2726). In the buyer's vector that has started, a buyer's zone has formed (green rectangle on the chart). The seller is testing this zone.
Buying opportunities (buy patterns) can be sought from this zone.
On the 4-hour timeframe, there is also a buyer's zone at these levels, and a test level has already formed at 2636.705. You can look for buying opportunities from a manipulation (false breakout) of the test level if the price returns there.
I wish you profitable trades!
BTCUSDT. Analysis of the daily timeframe.Hey traders and investors!
The price of Bitcoin entered the range of 92,232 - 90,500, and the buyer resumed activity (see previous posts).
On the daily timeframe, there is a range, with its boundaries marked on the chart.
The current buyer's vector is 6-7. The first target is almost reached at 99,963.7. The next target will be 103,333 (the seller’s zone at the upper boundary of the range).
If looking for buy opportunities, it’s advisable to focus on lower timeframes with a tight stop-loss and a near-term target based on the lower timeframe.
The feasibility of looking for sell opportunities can be evaluated once the price reaches 103,333
I wish you profitable trades.
Ethereum Bullish Outlook: Targeting $8,000 During Altcoin SeasonBINANCE:ETHUSDT
COINBASE:ETHUSD
📈Which side you pick?
Bulls or Bears
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 1x-2x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
After the alt-season scenario occurs, a very likely target for ETH/USDT is around $8,000. Currently, the price is stabilizing, and if it remains within this zone, a strong breakout could drive the price up to the $8,000 target.
In another scenario, if the price breaks below the red zone, a lower dynamic support line could provide protection for buyers around the $2,500 to $2,600 range.
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
4K
5.2K
6K
6.8K (Risk-free level)(if the price reached this level, risk-free your positions.)
8K
🔴SL:
2850$
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
Harsha engineering good swing pick?Harsha engineering from fundamental pov company is debt free and has delivered a good cagr return
Now stock is at good value looks like in mid of Jan month it will pop up with good volume
Risk traders can accumulate at cmp keeping sl at 475 almost 8% while safe trader can accumulate at 485-515
Tgt 562 598 676 720
Only for educational purposes
Ask your financial advisor and broker before buying
TOTAL2 Index Set to Surge Towards $2.5 Trillion!CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
📈Which side you pick?
Bulls or Bears
This chart shows the gravity points for the TOTAL2 index. It also describes the potential targets and their different probabilities of realization. The nearest zones within this structure are highlighted in green.
After TOTAL2 broke above 1.29 trillion dollars, and with Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) decreasing, a very likely scenario for TOTAL2 is reaching the 2.5 trillion-dollar level.
⚡️Target:
2.5T
Key Support / Resistance Breakout - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Key Support & Resistance Breakout. Stock has give Breakout of Resistance level. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Swing Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think.
$MSTR appears to have broken the downtrendStill not 100% confirmed yet.
Price action dipped into the gap, although i would have liked to of seen a bit more time ~$275 to confirm
That would have shown a strong bounce off the .618 Fib as well, so I’m still bit skeptical.
It is very good that MSTR had a full 50% retracement tho from this move up.
I’m expecting it to range sideways at least for a few more days to confirm.
Volume has flipped bullish to suggest a trend reversal.
RSI fully reset to beginning of move.
Price closed above the EMA 9 & 21.
EMA 9 still has not crossed 21, so more hesitation.
Bulls need to step up BIG here for the Weekly Close.
AUDCAD LONGThe weekly volume profile closed above the Value area high. Going into next week, I am looking for buys. I would like to see a healthy pullback to the 0.89474 area before the price buying off. Of course, I will look for extra confluence for buys, such as a price on the Daily Session Volume Profile indicating buyers' momentum.
UCDCAD LongThe weekly volume profile was closed above the value area, which was high. Going into next week, I am looking for buys. I would like to see a healthy pullback to the 1.44065 area before the price buys off. Of course, I will look for extra confluence for buys, such as a price on the Daily Session Volume Profile indicating buyers' momentum.
$TSLA #BullFlag (550C's?!... #BTFD #Soon) #HappyNYEditionAfter all the Downside #Alerts, I figured I'd try to #Happy things up with a Tesla Idea for y'all!
Notice declining sell volume... Notice back to back #FlagPoles... Notice #Elon
NASDAQ:TSLA doing Tesla things frfr lol (Very 2020-2021esq)... I sense a #ShakeOutB4Breaout #Soon
@ 380ish I would buy some OTM Calls on NASDAQ:TSLA on $550 Strike's... Dates #TBD
Looking for continued weakness slow grind down short-term. Looking to enter calls on #BigGREENDay / #Stremf (Strength ... Always Teste...) in mid term...
New Price Target (POST SHAKEOUT) - $550-$600
-Prophecies (#StayPaytient)
PS; If it acts, looks, sounds, and feels like a bullflag, it's probably a bullflag.
Bitcoin FEAR – January 3, 2025Bitcoin stands strong at $96,352 today, with analysts eyeing a potential surge to $120K by mid-year and possibly $250K by year-end. Whale activity is rising, signaling big players are gearing up for the next bull run.
The crypto revolution is accelerating, and this could be your moment to act. Ready to make the most of it?
Rigetti Computing, Inc. to print a 70% market crash ??** short trade - weeks ahead **
On the above 2 day chart price action has rocketed up 800% in the last 60 days. Now is a good moment to be “short”, why?
1) Price action meets flag forecast.
2) The forecast area is also monthly resistance.
3) Price action is multiple sigmas from the Bollinger Band Mean. Do not forget, 95% of all price action trades around the mean.
4) First support is around $2.35
5) Everyone else on tradingview is long. WW is a contrarian, that means he opposes popular opinion.
www.tradingview.com
Is it possible price action continues going vertical? Sure.
Is it probable? No
Ww
Type: Short trade
Timeframe for short entry: 48 hours
Risk: You decide
Return: 70%
Pepe Interesting Observation from Anchored VWAP Higher HighHey guys Anchored VWAP from highest high we put in late December. Seems a pattern has formed which is a smaller clone of what already happened. Just putting it on the radar.. I think a must know. Explains itself. Learn Anchored VWAP. You'll have to or want to play with the dates for this control. Interesting.