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TCPL Packaging Limited Triangle Patters Projective GrowthInvestment Analysis Blog Post: TCPL Packaging Limited Introduction TCPL Packaging Limited, a prominent player in the packaging industry, has recently released its financial reports, providing valuable insights into the company's performance and future prospects. This analysis will delve into the key financial metrics, growth potential, and strategic focus of TCPL Packaging, helping investors make informed decisions. Profit and Profit Growth TCPL Packaging has demonstrated strong profit growth in the recent quarter. Here are the highlights: - **Profit Before Tax (PBT):** Increased by 22% year-on-year to Rs. 45 crore in Q2, indicating robust financial health. - **Profit After Tax (PAT):** Reached Rs. 36 crore, showing significant growth and reflecting the company's ability to convert profits into tangible earnings. - **Cash Profits:** Reported at Rs. 64 crore, highlighting healthy cash flow generation which is crucial for sustaining operations and funding future expansions . EBITDA and Operational Efficiency - **EBITDA:** Grew by 18% to Rs. 77 crore, with margins at 17%. This growth reflects effective cost management and operational efficiency, suggesting that the company is optimizing its resources well. - **EBITDA Margin:** The stable to slightly increasing EBITDA margins around 15-17% in recent years indicate that TCPL Packaging is maintaining its operational efficiency despite market fluctuations . Future Plans and Growth Potential TCPL Packaging has several initiatives that promise significant growth potential: - **Expansion in Southern India:** A new Greenfield facility near Chennai is set to commence operations soon, adding about 750 tonnes of monthly capacity. This is expected to contribute Rs. 70-80 crore in annual revenue initially, with further expansion possibilities. - **Subsidiary Performance:** The subsidiaries are growing at a high double-digit rate, although there is a need for scaling up profitability. As the subsidiaries grow, improved margins are anticipated. - **Flexible Packaging:** Despite current underutilization, there are plans for a gradual ramp-up, with full utilization expected within 6-12 months. Future capital expenditures are being considered once full capacity is reached. - **Recyclable Films:** The facility for recyclable films is fully functional and ramping up utilization, aligning with the company's focus on sustainable solutions. - **Export Growth:** TCPL Packaging is experiencing strong growth in exports, driven by improved Indian supply chain capabilities, competitive pricing, and established trust with long-term clients across various regions. - **Capex Plans:** Rs. 100 crore is planned for FY25, primarily for incremental capacity in the carton business, flexible packaging, and strategic land acquisitions. Surplus cash flow may be directed towards debt reduction or growth opportunities through M&A or new business lines . Strategic Focus TCPL Packaging is committed to several strategic areas: - **Innovation and Sustainable Solutions:** The company continues to focus on innovation and sustainable solutions, which is crucial for long-term growth and market relevance. - **Operational Excellence:** There is a strong emphasis on operational excellence, ensuring that the company maintains high standards in its production processes. - **Market Share Expansion:** TCPL Packaging aims to expand its market share and deepen customer relationships both domestically and internationally, which is key to sustaining growth . Financial Insights Here are some key financial insights: - **Growth in Net Fixed Assets:** There has been a consistent increase in Net Fixed Assets, indicating significant capital investment in infrastructure and expansion. This grew from Rs. 29,365 crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 70,276 crore in 2023-24 . - **Net Current Assets:** Net Current Assets have shown notable growth, reflecting improved liquidity and working capital management. This increased from Rs. 4,483 crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 28,119 crore in 2023-24 . - **Total Assets:** Total assets have increased significantly from Rs. 28,660 crore to Rs. 100,072 crore, reflecting the company's expansion and asset accumulation. Funding Structure - **Shareholders' Funds:** Have grown from Rs. 11,383 crore to Rs. 52,572 crore, showing strong equity growth likely due to retained earnings and possibly new equity infusion. - **Long Term Loans:** Have increased significantly from Rs. 9,743 crore to Rs. 22,478 crore, indicating reliance on debt for funding growth. However, the debt to equity ratio has decreased to 1.12 in 2023-24, suggesting a move towards a more balanced capital structure. Revenue and Profitability - **Sales Turnover:** Has seen a steady rise from Rs. 49,116 crore to Rs. 151,278 crore, showcasing robust revenue growth. - **EBITDA and PAT:** Both have increased significantly, with EBITDA growing from Rs. 8,200 crore to Rs. 26,200 crore and PAT increasing from Rs. 3,219 crore to Rs. 10,137 crore. This reflects improvements in profitability over time. Earnings Metrics - **Earnings Per Share (EPS):** Has increased from Rs. 37.00 in 2014-15 to Rs. 111.39 in 2023-24 and TTM 129.32, indicating growth in per-share earnings. - **Dividend Per Share (DPS):** Has also increased, showing the company's commitment to shareholder returns. Financial Ratios - **ROCE (Return on Capital Employed):** Has varied but settled around 19.86% in 2023-24, indicating a good return on the capital employed. - **RONW (Return on Net Worth):** Has shown a positive trend, reflecting efficient use of equity. - **Debt to Equity Ratio:** Has fluctuated but decreased to 1.12 in 2023-24, suggesting a more balanced capital structure. Quantitative Analysis - **CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate):** - **Sales Turnover:** Approximately 13.2% from Rs. 49,116 crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 151,278 crore in 2023-24. - **EBITDA:** Around 13.8% from Rs. 8,200 crore to Rs. 26,200 crore. - **PAT:** Approximately 13.6% from Rs. 3,219 crore to Rs. 10,137 crore. Financial Stability and Operational Efficiency - The increase in both equity and debt shows a strategy of balanced growth, with a slight shift towards reducing debt dependency in recent years. - Stable to slightly increasing EBITDA margins suggest operational efficiency despite market fluctuations. - The consistent increase in EPS and DPS indicates a focus on enhancing shareholder value through profitability and dividends. Conclusion TCPL Packaging Limited presents a compelling investment case with its strong profit growth, efficient operational management, and robust expansion plans. The company's focus on innovation, sustainable solutions, and operational excellence positions it well for long-term growth. The financial metrics, including revenue growth, EBITDA margins, and profitability, all indicate a healthy and growing business. For investors looking for a stable yet growth-oriented company in the packaging sector, TCPL Packaging Limited is an attractive option. The company's balanced funding structure, improving financial ratios, and commitment to shareholder returns further enhance its appeal. As the company continues to expand its capacity, deepen its market presence, and focus on sustainable solutions, it is likely to remain a strong performer in the industry.
NSE:TCPLPACKLong
by stocktechbot
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
Downward for Exxon Mobil. XOMPicture is highly suggestive of an Elliott downward impulse, with wave 5 remaining. Momentum is certainly building, indicators are about to turn. The narrow price action in the most recent candles are highly suspect for a wave 4 in the undergoing impulse. Fibtime is not excluding the possibility of Wave 5 yet. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green or purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Professionally, we are big fans of any indicators from Jurik, De Mark and Ehlers, which we use in addendum in analysis prior to putting down positions. We prefer a combination of at least four technical factors to favor a particular stance. A stance is never decided by this constellation, rather the constellation merely confirms the stance. Trading is a true one man sport. No single confluence of indicators is truly good enough, and a professional trader's sense must be developed through a lot of hard work and over a significant period of time. Good luck out there and stay safe.
NYSE:XOMShort
by Rykin_Capital
Bullish on Walmart. WMTThere is a squeeze developing on this stock, whether you look at Bollinger Bands or the Band formed by the upper and lower MIDAS curves. If a move is imminent, it is more likely to the upside given the stochastics and volatility indicators. This is certainly supported by increase. One major worrying equation is the progressively dropping volumes as the peaks progress. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green or purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Professionally, we are big fans of any indicators from Jurik, De Mark and Ehlers, which we use in addendum in analysis prior to putting down positions. We prefer a combination of at least four technical factors to favor a particular stance. A stance is never decided by this constellation, rather the constellation merely confirms the stance. Trading is a true one man sport. No single confluence of indicators is truly good enough, and a professional trader's sense must be developed through a lot of hard work and over a significant period of time. Good luck out there and stay safe.
NYSE:WMTLong
by Rykin_Capital
2
BTC Dominance: Volume Insight!As on the chart: I believe the volume suggests the big alt season will come soon, and that BTC dominance is correcting. And that, given the current scale of the move, the alt season will be less impressive than both of those before. Each alt season has effectively been less impressive than the last, with last cycle's alt season not even able to break the lows of the previous alt season dominance-wise! The two sets of lines indicate a first corrective phase on dominance, consolidation where volume drops off, and then the really big dominance correction where once again rises. The pattern is very clear and visible to all! This 'in a few months' view aligns with my EW analysis and time-cycle analysis, which is why volume as another confirming factor gives me additional confidence.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Ian_Carsen
EURUSD. The buyer is not showing any strengthHey traders and investors! (For a detailed analysis, refer to the related post) The buyer is not showing any strength. The price is once again below the lower boundary of the range (1.03319). The bar on January 8th shows a slight increase in volume, indicating increased interest from both buyers and sellers. Volume is accumulating in the same area from where the buyer emerged on January 6th (the blue line on the chart shows the range where 33% of the bar's volume was traded). As long as the price remains below 1.03319, it is preferable to look for sell opportunities (sell patterns). Above this level, buy patterns can be considered. For buying, it would be beneficial to accumulate volume below 1.03319 today and maybe tomorrow, then move back above the level and defend the breakout. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
ETHUSDT: Attempting a Recovery After the Dump Hey, traders! Today, we’re focusing on $ETHUSDT. The price is trying to recover after a sharp dump, currently sitting at 3,345.52 USDT . We see a support level at 3,308.46 USDT , which has held up under pressure, but its retention remains critical. --- 🔑 Key Levels: Support: 3,308.46 USDT — the key zone where buyers might keep the market steady. 3,302.52 USDT — an additional defense level in case of renewed pressure. Resistance: 3,360.00 USDT — the nearest target to test the bulls' strength. 3,400.00 USDT — a zone for partial profit-taking if the upward momentum continues. --- 🚩 Trading Strategy: Entry Point: - Consider a long position after confirming the support at 3,308.46 USDT and observing a bullish impulse. Stop-Loss: - Place your stop below 3,302.52 USDT to minimize risks. Take-Profit Targets: 3,360.00 USDT — the first profit-taking point. 3,400.00 USDT — the final target for this upward move. --- 📈 Technical Analysis: The sharp volume dump indicates a liquidity grab attempt. If bulls can hold the 3,308.46 USDT level, recovery toward resistance is possible. It’s important to monitor volume and price reaction at key levels. --- 💡 Conclusion: Ethereum is clearly attempting to recover after a strong dump, but buyers must hold support. Will the market manage to reclaim lost ground? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by Max_Pr0fit
2
SMMT | Consolidation Almost Complete | LONGSummit Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, that focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of patient, physician, caregiver, and societal-friendly medicinal therapies intended to improve quality of life, increase potential duration of life, and resolve serious unmet medical needs. The firm conducts clinical programs focusing on Clostridioides Difficile Infection (CDI). Its lead product, Ridinilazole, is an orally administered small molecule antibiotic that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of CDI. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Miami, FL.
NASDAQ:SMMTLong
by DivergenceSeeker
VERY VERY BULISH ON BTC -- Current range will break towards up Very Bullish on BTC in higher time frames, huge amount of shorts coming to the market currently, which is a good sign. i believe they will fuel the upward move as they will get liquidated.🤔 However, first the market will create an elusion that seems is making Lower Lows to onboard more shorts creating a down trend, Hence allocate SL minimum below the Daily FVG and wait for the created trend to be broken. Cheers Shah
Long
by reerizeapp
EURUSD. Trading opportunityHey traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, there is a range-bound market. The boundaries are marked on the chart. The current buyer vector is 5-6, with a potential target of 1.06098. A buyer zone has formed within the current buyer vector (green rectangle on the chart). Buying opportunities (buy patterns) can be sought from the buyer zone. 1H Timeframe Analysis On the hourly timeframe, there is also a range-bound market, with boundaries marked on the chart. Given the daily timeframe, it's preferable to look for buys from the lower levels of the range (1.03525, 1.03319 – 1.03286) or after the buyer breaks out of the upper boundary (1.0437) and defends the breakout. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
Big Bets Coming In, Negative Gamma Clusters Here We Come!I have been waiting to call this one for months. Predicted the downfall of MSTR and now I want a dead cat bounce or short term rally again. After large positions and option contract plays are placed/bought, it can take time for the bottom to form and the price to move. I can see potential downside to $290-$289 and then we bounce ORRRRRR if we break through 290-289 with strong downside, next target is $262. IF WE LOSE 290, its very very bad for the stock longer term. First target is $320 Second target is $340
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by LeapTrades
23
Gold. Buying opportunitiesHey traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, there is a range. The current buyer's vector is 7-8, with a potential target of 2721 (2726). A buyer's zone (marked by a green rectangle on the chart) has formed in the emerging buyer's vector. For a detailed analysis, refer to the related post. The seller's daily bar from January 6, with increased volume, failed to engulf the buyer's bar from January 2, which created the buyer's zone (green rectangle on the chart). The key volume of the bar (the blue band on the chart shows the range where 33% of the bar's volume has been traded) is below the level of 2636.705, which we've been monitoring. This favors looking for buying opportunities. 1H Timeframe Analysis On the hourly timeframe, there is a range near the level of 2636.705, with boundaries indicated on the chart. Buying Strategy Buying patterns can be sought at the bottom of the range or after the buyer exits the range and defends the breakout. The potential target on the daily timeframe is 2721 (2726). I wish you profitable trades!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
TLRY | Time for MJ to POP! | LONGTilray Brands, Inc. is a global cannabis-lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company, which focuses on medical cannabis research and the cultivation, processing, and distribution of cannabis products worldwide. It operates through the followings segments: Cannabis Business, Distribution Business, Beverage Alcohol Business, and Wellness Business. The company was founded on January 24, 2018 and is headquartered in Leamington, Canada.
NASDAQ:TLRYLong
by DivergenceSeeker
12
Bitcoin - A quarter of a million dollars - is it possible?Good Morning, Good Evening! A new year brings new candles, new opportunities and new challenges. I decided to write down my new thoughts and, where appropriate, reflect on my previous analyses. Naturally, my primary focus is on the asset that leads the cryptocurrency market – Bitcoin. I must mention that I am not someone with formal education in this field. I am self-taught, placing a strong emphasis on using Technical Analysis as the main component of my decision-making process. This stems from my belief that although the chart is difficult to read, it largely allows for the interpretation of the hidden intentions of "smart money." I want to stress that the following words reflect only my personal point of view, which may not be correct, and that this publication is by no means investment or educational advice as understood by any law regulating such matters. I simply intend to ramble about topics I don’t fully understand. Background Since its inception, Bitcoin has been in a continuous long-term upward trend. Throughout this time, there have been four minor reaccumulation structures and four major ones, occurring chronologically. Each structure has taken progressively longer to form, and the upward trend has been gradually flattening over time. Technical Analysis and Thoughts In this analysis, I will apply tools from volume analysis, Wyckoff methodology, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), and Elliott Wave Theory. At the beginning, I will refer to an analysis I published about a year and a half ago on this platform: "Comparative Analysis of BTC," 24.09.2023 (links attached). Looking back at my previous analysis, I see that my reasoning and chosen tools were correct. As is often the case in attempts to master the market using Technical Analysis, the price action deviated from the expected scenario. However, the primary trend remained intact. I missed certain key structures, such as the Spring, which I would interpret differently today. But I will get to that later. The key resistance levels, derived from price structure and Fibonacci extensions, appear to have been recognized by the market. The price stalled just below the resistance level at 2.618, an extension based on the Spring-Buying Exhaustion range from 2015 and 2017/2018 reaccumulation phases. Similarly, the external measurement of 1.618, calculated from the 2017/2018 Spring to the 2021 Upthrust, was respected by market participants. Both levels align perfectly with significant price points. I mentioned that today I would approach the topic differently. This is due to the revealed market structure (it's always easier to analyze when you can see everything, right? 😉) as well as the experience I've gained by continuously expanding my analytical horizon. Looking at the latest high-order reaccumulation structure (December 2021 – March 2024), I realize I made an error in my interpretation. The overall price action indicates a lack of supply around the $16K level. Interestingly, BTC/USDT on Binance shows significant accumulation, which I deduce from Bag Holding candles. The core point of my argument is that I have witnessed the formation of a large accumulation structure, whose elements align with the Wyckoff methodology. The market behaved as expected based on this interpretation. One particularly important element is the Last Point of Supply (LPS), represented by the March 2024 – November 2024 reaccumulation phase. I discussed this process in detail in my September 6, 2024 publication titled "Bitcoin – Technical Analysis." The ~250-day trading range, during which the price was stuck, allowed Smart Money to accumulate assets from those willing to sell. Despite the temporary stagnation, which I currently observe, the upward trend will likely continue. The strength of this trend is confirmed by the use of volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the Test of Phase C, according to Wyckoff's methodology. When analyzing the three most recent tests in the three highest-order reaccumulation structures, I observe that the price moves within a channel defined by the second and third standard deviations. I think that the current sideways structure is a Back Up to the Creek from the latest high-order reaccumulation phase. Its characteristics resemble a reaccumulation phase. At this stage, I am unsure whether this structure will directly lead to a breakout to significantly higher price levels, or whether it will result in an Upthrust of a higher-order structure, followed by another Spring. The structure shows declining volume and several Bag Holding candles, marked with green arrows on my chart. The Upthrust does not exhibit distribution characteristics but instead suggests a lack of demand. The candle marked with a question mark is interesting due to its dual nature. However, upon closer examination of the 4-hour interval, it appears to be an Upthrust of a lower-tier structure, aimed at absorbing supply. I want to highlight the relationship between the Test of Phase C and the structure forming along previous peaks. Considering the two most recent reaccumulation phases, the situation is as follows: I do not take into account overly optimistic price movements that exceed the 8.0 external retracement level, due to the flattening of the global trend over time. Instead, I consider more realistic targets based on Fibonacci levels, such as 3.618 and 2.618 extensions, indicating a price range between $170K and $230K. In my September 24, 2023 analysis, I mentioned $240K as a 3.618 external retracement level measured from March 2020 to October 2021. Using 1:1 geometry, I estimate that the price could reach around $250K, which aligns with my other methods. Conclusion of the Analysis I have presented various methods to identify the direction and potential range of Bitcoin's price movement. Although it is difficult to pinpoint the exact peak of the trend, the analysis provides sufficient signals to expect supply levels within the indicated price ranges. Confirmation of a trend reversal would require a high-order distribution structure visible on higher time frames. Final Thoughts I have intentionally referred to my previous analyses to maintain continuity and to highlight both successes and mistakes. The purpose of this reflection is to improve my analytical process by identifying what I did well and where I need to focus more in future analyses. I believe that Technical Analysis, practiced for over a century, holds a certain beauty and logic. The process of applying it, and reaping its rewards, is an intellectual delight. Ultimately, the weakest link is not the tool, but the person using it. Therefore, continuous improvement and patience are essential. The chart is the only reliable source that reveals the intentions of Smart Money or Composite Man, depending on the interpretation of market personality. Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts. I hope you found them insightful, and that your time was well spent. Wishing you health, perseverance, and successful trades. May you master the art of recognizing well-formed market structures. CatTheTrader
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by CatTheTrader
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 01/06/2025This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower. Considerations The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights. For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately. To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Giovanni_Bandini
Technical Analysis on Advent Technologies Holdings (ADN)The chart for ADN clearly illustrates its performance: a rapid surge at the end of 2020, followed by a consistent decline from 2021, leading to a 99% drop in value. After reaching its lows around $1.70, the stock entered a sideways consolidation phase that lasted several months. It then staged a strong recovery with a gap away and a breakout of the descending trendline. Currently, the stock is in a compression phase, forming a Triangle pattern, with converging highs and lows. Bullish Scenario In a bullish scenario, a breakout above the triangle is required, ideally accompanied by an increase in trading volumes. The Volume Profile indicates the absence of significant resistance levels that could hinder the upward movement. Bearish Scenario In a bearish scenario, the stock would need to break below the triangle. However, the Volume Profile highlights a high-volume node represented by the rectangle, which also contains the POC (Point of Control). Before a sustained decline can occur, the stock would need to breach this strong support zone.
NASDAQ:ADN
by Giovanni_Bandini
EUR/JPY Resistance with Fair Volume GapOn EUR/JPY , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 164.480. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. Fair Volume GAP (FVG) and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
by Trader_Dale
USD/JPY continue with the UptrendOn USD/JPY , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 156.210. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
by Trader_Dale