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USOIL : Why a 56.53% Probability Signals a Strong Bullish Move!The current global landscape presents several factors supporting a bullish bias for USOIL: Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to create supply uncertainties, potentially driving prices higher. Economic Recovery: As major economies show signs of improvement, demand for oil is expected to increase, putting upward pressure on prices. OPEC+ Production Cuts: Recent decisions by major oil-producing countries to limit output could lead to tighter supply conditions. Leveraging Probabilities for Strategic Positioning I'm utilizing probabilistic analysis on my charts to get positioned into longs. Here's why this approach is valuable: 1. Risk Management: By assessing probabilities, I can better gauge potential outcomes and adjust my position sizes accordingly. 2. Identifying High-Probability Setups: Probability-based analysis helps pinpoint trade entries with higher chances of success. 3. Emotional Control: Using probabilities provides a more objective framework, reducing the impact of emotions on trading decisions. 4. Adapting to Market Conditions: Probabilistic thinking allows for flexibility in strategy as market conditions evolve. By combining fundamental analysis with a probability-based approach to technical analysis, I aim to capitalize on the bullish potential in USOIL. 12M: 2W: 1H:
TVC:USOILLong
by Jasminex1x2
EURJPY Long SignalDoji Candlestick with ultra high volume on Daily & Weekly timeframe, started at 5-Aug, mean the downtrend is going to be stopped. Doji Candlestick have been broken up next week of 5-Aug Consolidation (price correction) started since 15-Aug till now price it closed to 0 Fibo percent, which is strong support level of the price on weekly and daily frame. enter buy when find weak shape, - could be on very low volume on daily time frame, enter next day - or divergence on 4H time frame support long signal (buy) Target T1 @ 163 T2 @ 165.6 the direction could stay long, but we have to wait the price behaviour at 165.6
Long
by FDamra
Short BTCAfter Bitcoin retraced nearly 19% from its recent highs, I believe it hasn’t yet reached the average cycle correction of around 22%, which could take the price down to about $57,500. In a more bearish scenario, the correction could deepen to 25%, or even extend toward $50,000​. Factoring in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, will drive short-term volatility, it is likely that it will lead to market downturns before any stable recovery​. Even if BTC does put higher and reach near $65,000,the short term upside would be capped as major selling pressure is likely to appear there. This makes the $60,500 level a reasonable point to short with a target of around $59,000 at the 200EMA.
Short
by Dr_Wallstreet
4
Completion of the correction of the dollar index DXY.H4 13.09.24Completion of the correction of the dollar index DXY The dollar index has completed its upward correction and now we are waiting for a downside downdraft on the Fed on the 18th of September. In fact, the currency futures expiration has now passed and the gap that you see in the quotes is caused by a large divergence of forward point, that is a purely technical picture. Some suppliers may have different quotes by the numbers. From current levels +- I expect a correction up again and a continuation of the fall after Powell's speech on Wednesday 18 September. I do not set targets at the low yet, I will be looking at it in the process
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader
1
NAVA LTD - A Diversified Investment OpportunityCore Business: - **Metals:** Nava Limited is involved in the production of ferro alloys, including Silico Manganese Alloys and Ferro Silicon. The company operates ferro alloy plants in Telangana and Odisha, India. - **Energy:** The company has a significant presence in the energy sector, primarily through its subsidiaries such as Nava Bharat Energy India Limited (NBEIL) and Maamba Collieries Limited (MCL). These entities operate power plants, including a 150 MW plant in Telangana and a 300 MW plant in Zambia. - **Mining:** Nava is engaged in coal mining, particularly through MCL in Zambia. The mining division also explores other minerals like magnetite ore. - **Agribusiness:** The company has ventured into agribusiness, focusing on avocado plantations in Zambia. This project is managed by Nava Avocado Limited. - **Emerging Businesses:** Nava is diversifying into healthcare services, especially in Singapore and Malaysia, and other innovative business initiatives. Global Hue: - **Geographical Presence:** Nava has a global footprint with operations in India, Zambia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Côte d'Ivoire. This global presence is a key aspect of its business strategy, enabling the company to leverage diverse markets and resources. - **International Subsidiaries:** The company has several international subsidiaries, including Nava Bharat (Singapore) Pte. Limited, Maamba Collieries Limited, and Nava Resources CI, which facilitate its global operations. Investment Perspective Qualitative Analysis: 1. **Diversification:** Nava's diversified business portfolio across metals, energy, mining, agribusiness, and emerging sectors reduces dependence on any single market, making it a more stable investment. 2. **Financial Performance:** The company has achieved significant financial milestones, including becoming long-term debt-free and reporting record revenues and profits. This indicates strong financial management and resilience. 3. **Operational Efficiency:** Nava has demonstrated operational efficiency improvements, such as cost optimization in its metals and energy segments, which contribute to its profitability. 4. **Sustainability and CSR:** The company's commitment to sustainability and corporate social responsibility (CSR) aligns with global ESG standards, which can attract socially responsible investors. 5. **Innovation and Adaptability:** Nava's ability to adapt to market challenges and innovate across its business segments is a positive indicator for long-term growth. Quantitative Information: 1. **Revenue and Profit:** - **Consolidated Revenue:** `3,818 crores for FY 2023-24, a YoY growth of 8.2%. - **Consolidated Profit:** `1,256 crores, the highest in the company's history. 2. **Financial Metrics:** - **EBITDA Margin:** 46.9% for FY 2024, indicating resilience in consolidated operations. - **Debt Repayment:** MCL repaid long-term debt of US$ 314.4 million, making it debt-free. 3. **Segment Performance:** - **Metals:** Despite challenges, the segment demonstrated resilience with strategic shifts to Ferro Silicon production. - **Energy:** NBEIL's 150 MW plant operated throughout the year, supported by bilateral contracts and remunerative tariffs. - **Mining:** MCL's coal sales increased by 35.3% YoY, contributing to free cash flows. 4. **Dividend Payout:** - **Dividend:** Recommended dividend of 200% (`4.00 per share of `2/- each) for FY 2023-24. Risk Analysis 1. **Market Risks:** - **Export Market Fluctuations:** The metals segment faced reduced demand in the export market, affecting realizations. - **Competition:** The mining division faced competition from newly opened coal mines nearby. 2. **Operational Risks:** - **Raw Material Handling System Breakdown:** The Odisha operations experienced a breakdown in the raw material handling system, affecting production. - **High Coal Costs:** The 114 MW power plant in Telangana faced high coal costs from Singareni Collieries, impacting generation and sales. 3. **Regulatory Risks:** - **Compliance:** The company must comply with various regulations, including those related to environmental and social governance. 4. **Financial Risks:** - **Loan Repayments:** Delays in loan repayments from subsidiaries, such as NBEIL, though managed within the group, could impact credit profiles if not managed carefully. Value and Growth Investment **Value Investment:** - **Debt-Free Status:** Achieving long-term debt-free status at both standalone and group levels enhances the company's financial stability and reduces risk. - **Consistent Dividend Payout:** The company's policy of consistent dividend payout provides a stable return for investors. - **Operational Efficiency:** Cost optimization and efficiency improvements across segments contribute to sustained profitability. **Growth Investment:** - **Diversification and Expansion:** Nava's expansion into new sectors like agribusiness and healthcare, along with its global footprint, offers potential for future growth. - **Innovation and Adaptability:** The company's ability to innovate and adapt to market challenges positions it for long-term growth. - **Strategic Initiatives:** Initiatives such as backward integration in mining and the development of new products in the metals segment are expected to drive future growth. Overall, Nava Limited presents a balanced profile for both value and growth investors, with its strong financial performance, diversified business portfolio, and commitment to sustainability and innovation. However, investors should be aware of the operational and market risks associated with the company's diverse business segments.
NSE:NAVALong
by stocktechbot
SMH tests major resistance levelSMH has rallied nicely the past 2 days and now reached major downward resistance level again. This is a crucial area for SMH to break in order for more rallying to continue Resistance defined well during late August ETF now presses up against resistance again Volume declines as resistance is reached. Overall I am expecting a reversal to start forming around here. Figure on SMH testing the level before retracting back down to lower levels again.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ratchet-mint
NOSANA - 6 MONTHS OF GROWTH - TOP END TARGETS FOR ALTSEASONMany reasons to be bullish on Nosana! Looking at the 3-day chart for NOS/USDT, we are currently at a critical support level that aligns with historical price action and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of previous move at $1.7884. The chart suggests a long from this zone, with a trajectory towards the upper resistance levels indicated by the Fibonacci extensions. Key targets are: Important Level 1: $7.9474 (Previous Highs) Sell Target 1: $13.5159 (1.272 Fibonacci extension) (7x from these levels) Final Sell Target: $26.5585 (1.618 Fibonacci extension) I’ve marked the Sell Zone in red between $13.5159 and $26.5585. This is where I plan to begin offloading positions and look for a retracement or consolidation period, as the asset could become overextended. Volume is picking up, and momentum indicators suggest the start of a reversal. The blue curve illustrates a projected rise in price action as the market starts to recover. I'm anticipating a significant increase over the next 192 days, with a potential gains of +2,000% to the $24-$26 price zone. It's important to monitor how the price behaves in this area and whether it can hold above critical support levels like $1.79 and $1.27, or if it retests the lower boundary. Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any trades.
Long
by mortimerkylej
Silver Analysis. H4 12.09.2024Silver Analysis. H4 12.09.2024 An interesting situation is fprming in silver. I haven't reviewed it for a while, but a cool pattern is forming now. The price is forming an exit to the upper boundary of the range and fixing near the margin. On the way we made accumulation and buyers' zone 28.50-28.85 in case of correction to which we can buy with targets to renew the highs. The main volumes remained at the bottom and will be a support for the price.
CAPITALCOM:SILVERLong
by KovachTrader
Understanding Crypto Market CapHello, Traders! Navigating the cryptocurrency market can be a thrilling ride 🎢, but it's also a maze of data and trends. One crucial metric that helps guide investors through this complexity is Market Capitalization or MCAP. So, if you’ve ever wondered how to make sense of all the numbers and signals, understanding the cryptocurrency market cap is a great place to start. 👇🏻 What Is Market Cap in Crypto? What does Market Cap mean in crypto?Market Capitalization (MCAP) estimates the total value of a cryptocurrency asset or the entire cryptocurrency market. It’s not just about a single price tag. Think of it as a way to gauge a coin’s overall market presence and potential.  How Is Market Capitalization Calculated? The formula for calculating MCAP is straightforward: MCAP = Current Price × Number of Tokens in Circulation.  For instance, if Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $70,500 and there are 19,666,425 BTC in circulation, the MCAP would be 70,500 × 19,666,425 = $1,386,482,962,500 But there’s also the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), which assumes all possible coins are in circulation. For Bitcoin, with a maximum supply of 21 million BTC, the FDV calculation would be 70,500 × 21,000,000 = $1,480,500,000,000 Why Is Market Cap Important in Crypto? MCAP is more than just a number! It reflects a cryptocurrency’s stability, market position, and growth potential.  Stability: High MCAP cryptocurrencies are like large ships—they handle market waves more smoothly 🌊, tend to be less volatile, and offer more stability.  Growth Potential : While large-cap cryptos are stable, small-cap ones offer high-growth opportunities. It’s all about balancing risk ⚖️reward. So, make sure to DYOR first.  Liquidity: Assets with large MCAPs usually have higher liquidity, meaning they can be traded easily without affecting their price too much. Categories of Cryptocurrencies by Market Cap Small-Cap Cryptos: These are typically newer or lesser-known coins/tokens with market caps ranging from a few million to a few billion dollars. They can be highly volatile and risky but offer growth potential.  Mid-Cap Cryptos: These have market caps between a few billion and tens of billions of dollars. They provide a balance between risk and growth potential.  Large-Cap Cryptos: These are well-established assets with market values in the tens of billions. They are more stable and widely accepted. Examples include Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Factors Affecting Market Capitalization MCAP isn’t static. Various factors influence it: Tokenomics: A coin's supply and demand dynamics affect its MCAP. Limited supply with growing demand can drive up prices. Regulation: Legal developments can impact market cap, either boosting or dampening investor interest. Market Sentiment: Investor mood, reflected in metrics like the Fear and Greed Index, can influence market cap fluctuations. Technological Advances: Innovations in blockchain technology and new applications can boost a coin’s market cap. Conclusion Market Capitalization (MCAP) is a key metric for evaluating a cryptocurrency's value and stability, yet it is only one piece of a broader analytical puzzle. While MCAP provides crucial insights into a cryptocurrency's market position, it should not be the exclusive factor guiding your investment decisions. For a more detailed analysis, consider implementing additional indicators such as Volume and Circulating Supply, which are available on analytical platforms.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by WhiteBIT
EUR/USD Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn EUR/USD , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 1.10400. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. The downtrend combined with the strong volume area with Weekly POC are my main reasons for this short trade. Happy trading, Dale
by Trader_Dale
Thoughts on EURUSD before the ECB rate. H4 12.09.2024Thoughts on EURUSD before the ECB rate I expect the euro to reach 1.0950-1.10 down to the area of option hedges and profile accumulation, and then continue to grow. Of course, there may be surprises, but this is my prior view. In detail we need to keep an eye on the new option fillings, they will tell us which areas will be hedged. The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut, but the main movement will be given at the press conference on further ECB monetary policy plans. My subscribers and I closed our sales in the private channel yesterday.
Short
by KovachTrader