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Bitcoin Analysis: Trump Tariffs AnnouncementAs of April 2nd, 2025, Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal technical crossroads, with price action consolidating within a well-defined range as markets prepare for Trump's upcoming tariff policy speech. The cryptocurrency has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, with a sharp decline from the $98,000 level followed by a consolidation phase. Technical Structure and Price Action The daily chart reveals Bitcoin trading in a rectangular consolidation pattern between approximately $79,800 and $88,800. This range-bound price action follows a substantial corrective move from recent highs, with the market now seeking direction. Current price hovers around $84,890, sitting below the mid-point of this established range. The blue box on the chart highlights this recent consolidation zone, where price has been oscillating for several trading sessions. This pattern typically represents a pause in the market as buyers and sellers reach temporary equilibrium before the next directional move. Volume Analysis Provides Crucial Insights Looking at the Relative Volume Indicator (RVOL) at the bottom of the chart, we can observe several noteworthy volume patterns: -Several green bars exceeding the 2.0x threshold indicate periods of significantly above-average volume during the decline and subsequent consolidation -More recent trading sessions show predominantly yellow and red bars, suggesting a return to average and below-average volume as the market consolidates -The most recent green volume spike coincides with a bullish candle, potentially indicating renewed buying interest This volume profile suggests that while the initial selloff occurred on strong volume (confirming the downtrend's validity), the recent consolidation is happening on decreasing volume – often a precursor to a significant move. Critical Levels to Watch With Trump's tariff announcement looming, traders should monitor these key levels: Support: $79,800 (lower range boundary) Intermediate resistance: $88,800 (higher range high) Intermediate support: $82,000 (recent swing low) What Could Happen Next? The cryptocurrency market's reaction will likely hinge on the tone and specifics of Trump's tariff policies: Bullish Scenario If Trump's tariff policies are perceived as positive for risk assets or specifically favorable for cryptocurrency: A break above $90,000 could trigger a relief rally toward previous highs The declining volume during consolidation could represent a coiling effect before an explosive move higher Target zones would be $95,000 and potentially a retest of the $98,000 area Bearish Scenario If the announcement creates market uncertainty or suggests policies that might negatively impact risk assets: A breakdown below $79,800 would confirm continuation of the larger downtrend Volume would likely expand on a breakdown, providing confirmation The next major support zones would become $75,000 and $70,000 Conclusion Bitcoin stands at a technical inflection point, with the upcoming tariff announcement serving as a potential catalyst for its next major move. The consolidation pattern, coupled with the volume profile shown in the RVOL indicator, suggests traders should prepare for increased volatility. Given the mixed signals – bearish price structure but consolidation with occasional above-average volume spikes – a measured approach is prudent. Traders would be wise to wait for a definitive break of either range boundary with confirming volume before establishing significant positions. The next 24-48 hours could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its longer-term uptrend or continues the correction that began from the $98,000 level.
by AlgoCollective
JPMorgan at a Crossroads Bullish Surge or Bearish Retreat ? Hello, fellow traders! Today, I’m diving into a detailed technical analysis of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) on the 2-hour chart, as shown in the screenshot. My goal is to break down the key elements of this chart in a professional yet accessible way, so whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, you can follow along and understand the potential opportunities and risks in this setup. Let’s get started! Price Action Overview At the time of this analysis, JPM is trading at 243.62, down -1.64 (-0.67%) on the 2-hour timeframe. The chart spans from late March to early May, giving us a good look at the recent price behavior. The price has been in a strong uptrend, as evidenced by the higher highs and higher lows, but we’re now seeing signs of a potential pullback or consolidation. The chart shows a breakout above a key resistance zone around the 234.50 level (highlighted in red on the Volume Profile), followed by a retest of this level as support. This is a classic bullish pattern: a breakout, a retest, and then a continuation higher. However, the recent price action suggests some hesitation, with a small bearish candle forming at the current price of 243.62. Let’s dig deeper into the tools and indicators to understand what’s happening. Volume Profile Analysis The Volume Profile on the right side of the chart is a powerful tool for identifying key price levels where significant trading activity has occurred. Here’s what it’s telling us: Value Area High (VAH): 266.25 Point of Control (POC): 243.01 Value Area Low (VAL): 236.57 Profile Low: 224.25 The Point of Control (POC) at 243.01 is the price level with the highest traded volume in this range, acting as a magnet for price. Since the current price (243.62) is just above the POC, this level is likely providing some support. However, the fact that we’re so close to the POC suggests that the market is at a decision point—either we’ll see a bounce from this high-volume node, or a break below could lead to a deeper pullback toward the Value Area Low (VAL) at 236.57. The Total Volume in VP Range is 62.798M shares, with an Average Volume per Bar of 174.44K. This indicates decent liquidity, but the Volume MA (21) at 165.709K is slightly below the average, suggesting that the recent price action hasn’t been accompanied by a significant spike in volume. This could mean that the current move lacks strong conviction, and we might see a consolidation phase before the next big move. Trendlines and Key Levels I’ve drawn two trendlines on the chart to highlight the structure of the price action: Ascending Triangle Pattern: The chart shows an ascending triangle formation, with a flat resistance line around the 234.50 level (which was later broken) and an upward-sloping support trendline connecting the higher lows. Ascending triangles are typically bullish patterns, and the breakout above 234.50 confirmed this bias. After the breakout, the price retested the 234.50 level as support and continued higher, reaching a high of around 248.02. Current Support Trendline: The upward-sloping trendline (drawn in white) is still intact, with the most recent low around 241.50 finding support on this line. This trendline is critical—if the price breaks below it, we could see a deeper correction toward the VAL at 236.57 or even the 234.50 support zone. Key Price Levels to Watch Based on the Volume Profile and price action, here are the key levels I’m watching: Immediate Support: 243.01 (POC) and 241.50 (recent low on the trendline). A break below 241.50 could signal a short-term bearish move. Next Support: 236.57 (VAL) and 234.50 (previous resistance turned support). Resistance: 248.02 (recent high). A break above this level could target the Value Area High at 266.25, though that’s a longer-term target. Deeper Support: If the price breaks below 234.50, the next significant level is 224.25 (Profile Low), which would indicate a major trend reversal. Market Context and Timeframe The chart covers 360 bars of data, starting from late March. This gives us a good sample size to analyze the trend. The 2-hour timeframe is ideal for swing traders or those looking to capture moves over a few days to a week. The broader trend remains bullish, but the recent price action suggests we might be entering a consolidation or pullback phase before the next leg higher. Trading Strategy and Scenarios Based on this analysis, here are the potential scenarios and how I’d approach trading JPM: Bullish Scenario: If the price holds above the POC at 243.01 and the trendline support at 241.50, I’d look for a bounce toward the recent high of 248.02. A break above 248.02 could signal a continuation toward 266.25 (VAH). Entry could be on a strong bullish candle closing above 243.62, with a stop-loss below 241.50 to manage risk. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 241.50 and the POC at 243.01, I’d expect a pullback toward the VAL at 236.57 or the 234.50 support zone. A short position could be considered on a confirmed break below 241.50, with a stop-loss above 243.62 and a target at 236.57. Consolidation Scenario: Given the lack of strong volume and the proximity to the POC, we might see the price consolidate between 241.50 and 248.02 for a while. In this case, I’d wait for a breakout or breakdown with strong volume to confirm the next move. Risk Management As always, risk management is key. The 2-hour timeframe can be volatile, so I recommend using a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. For example, if you’re going long at 243.62 with a stop-loss at 241.50 (a risk of 2.12 points), your target should be at least 248.02 (a reward of 4.40 points), giving you a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. Adjust your position size to risk no more than 1-2% of your account on this trade. Final Thoughts JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is showing a strong bullish trend on the 2-hour chart, with a confirmed breakout above the 234.50 resistance and a retest of this level as support. However, the recent price action near the POC at 243.01 and the lack of strong volume suggest that we might see a pullback or consolidation before the next move higher. The key levels to watch are 241.50 (trendline support), 243.01 (POC), and 248.02 (recent high). For now, I’m leaning slightly bullish as long as the price holds above 241.50, but I’ll be ready to adjust my bias if we see a break below this level. Stay disciplined, manage your risk, and let the market show its hand before taking a position. What are your thoughts on this setup? Let me know in the comments below, and happy trading! This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
NYSE:JPMLong
by wolfchemist
INTRADAY MOVEMENT EXPECTEDi can see still there is liquidity above at the poc of the weekly volume but if the price can cross up the level it can visit the next resistance above so if the price at london session cross down the value area i will expect visit the levels shown on the chart as support and make the rejection so we have to follow the plan and and use the levels on the chart risk management safe the profit secure the orders after the price move stop at break even we wish happy trade for all
COMEX:GC1!
by ConcordDeath
IAG Airlines Group what next? $261 Reached & Breached! $172?🤔 IAG Airlines Group what next? ℹ️ $261 Reached & Breached! Will the $261 be regained and start to offer some support or is $172 NEXT?❓️❔️❓️ 🌍 To be completely transparent I have no horse in this race at the moment BUT I really would like a serious flush to try and accumulate a long-term POSITION. 🟢SeekingPips🟢 is not interested at current price at all unless we start to see some SERIOUS VOLUME START TO COME IN TO PLAY
LSE:IAG
by seekingpips
ETH is leaving exchanges , is a "supply shock" approaching ?Hello Traders 🐺 Today I’ve got some good news for ETH, and I also spotted a bullish pattern forming. Plus, I’ll talk about the short-term price targets, so stick with me until the very end—and don’t forget to like for more support! 👍🔥 Alright, let’s get into it: According to Glassnode and Santiment, only 14% of the total ETH supply is left on centralized exchanges. That’s the lowest level in nearly 10 years — but what does it mean? Usually, this type of data hints at major volatility incoming. And guess what? The big players are the ones playing this game. Let me explain: They keep the price artificially low, slowly exhausting retail traders and shaking them out. Meanwhile, they accumulate quietly. Once their bags are full, they remove the sell pressure, and suddenly… 🚨 Supply shock. People start panic buying, and with so little ETH available on exchanges, the price skyrockets. Also, ETH transaction fees have dropped to their lowest levels since mid-2020, which I see as another bullish sign for Ethereum. Now let’s look at the chart: We have a clear falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, along with a potential double bottom forming. If the price breaks above the neckline of this “W” formation—which also aligns with a strong daily resistance—I expect a strong reversal for ETH. 📈🚀 Make sure to act accordingly, and as always: 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Long
by Kiu_Coin
USD/CAD rejection of lower pricesOn USD/CAD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.42520. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. Rejection of lower prices and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
by Trader_Dale
1
EUR/USD continue with the UptrendOn EUR/USD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.07740. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. (FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
by Trader_Dale
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5619 and 5651. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. Downtrend and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
XRPUSDT.P — Is This the Beginning of the Next Pump? BINANCE:XRPUSDT.P is bouncing back with style — and this long setup is giving off real “king of the charts” vibes. Look at that clean risk-to-reward! Entry: 2.0905 USDT Stop-loss: 2.0574 USDT Take-Profit: 2.2238 USDT R:R Ratio: 3.28 Why this setup matters: Confirmed bounce off intraday support Momentum shift with bullish engulfing candle Targeting a clean resistance level for optimal exit Tight stop, juicy upside — exactly what scalpers and day traders crave. Add to watchlist and get ready to trail that stop if momentum holds.
Long
by Max_Pr0fit
Will APTUSDT Bounce or Break? Last Chance for the Bulls?BINANCE:APTUSDT.P 🚨 APTUSDT is sitting at a crucial level. After multiple CHoCH and BoS signals, price has dumped into the key Demand Zone (PDL) . Now it’s either a spring up or a deeper dump to the next liquidity zone. 📌 Technical Outlook: CHoCH → BoS → Liquidity Grab: Clear bearish structure. Equilibrium broken: Bulls failed to hold control. Now: Price is testing the blue Demand Zone (PDL) with big orders possibly resting. 🎯 Trade Plan: Scenario 1: Long from support zone Entry: bounce from 5.45–5.50 USDT Stop-Loss: under wick low at <5.38 USDT Take-Profits: TP1: 5.70 USDT TP2: 5.90 USDT (Equilibrium zone) TP3: 6.00–6.15 USDT (Imbalance + Premium zone) Scenario 2: Short after PDL breakdown Entry: break and retest below 5.45 USDT Stop-Loss: above 5.55 USDT Targets: TP1: 5.20 USDT TP2: 5.00 USDT 📊 Confluence Factors: Volume spike = buyer activity Local CHoCH inside zone = reversal signal Strong impulse down may sweep liquidity 💬 Final Thought: APT is at a pressure point — it’s spring or capitulation. Clear setup, no tilt.
Short
by Max_Pr0fit
Lightbridge (LTBR) – Daily Chart Analysis As of March 28, 2025, Lightbridge (NASDAQ: LTBR) is trading at $7.80, down -3.07% on the session with a recent test of critical confluence support. Price has lost near-term momentum and is currently sitting near a key inflection zone. The setup presents a decision point where bulls must defend structural levels to avoid deeper continuation to the downside. Technical Structure Overview Current Price: $7.80 Recent Rejection Zone: $10.17 – $11.96 Support Levels Below: $7.73 (current test area, horizontal support) $6.82 (local structural shelf) $5.60 – $4.45 (wider demand zone) Sub-4 range includes prior basing levels: $3.70 / $3.03 / $2.53 Gann Fan Overlay: Price has broken below the 1/1 and 1/2 fans and is currently hovering near 2/1 and 3/1 levels. Breakdown below this fan cluster implies increasing downside risk and loss of geometric support. Volume Profile: Thin participation below $7.70 suggests risk of accelerated drop if price loses $7.73–$6.82. Visible volume nodes exist below $6.00, reinforcing that support must hold above. Momentum Indicators RSI+ Currently flat just below the midline (~41.49), signaling loss of bullish momentum. No divergence present; no confirmation of immediate reversal. WaveTrend 3D Bearish crossover confirmed and histogram remains negative. Signal line trending lower, mirroring December’s breakdown structure. Volume Buoyancy Curve is fading with no current lift, showing decreasing underlying volume strength. Momentum is significantly weaker compared to the January rally setup. Trade Scenarios Scenario 1: Support Reclaim and Reversal Trigger: Reclaim and close above $7.80–$8.00 zone with increasing volume. Confirmation: RSI+ turns up through 50; WaveTrend flips bullish; Volume Buoyancy curves upward. Target 1: $8.77 (first resistance) Target 2: $10.17–$11.96 (volume cluster + prior rejection zone) Invalidation: Close below $7.73 with momentum confirming breakdown Scenario 2: Breakdown Toward Lower Supports Trigger: Clean daily close below $7.73 on rising volume Confirmation: Continuation of negative WaveTrend + buoyancy deterioration Target 1: $6.82 (local shelf) Target 2: $5.60, then $4.45 Risk: Accelerated downside if $6.82 fails—volume is thin below this region Scenario 3: Prolonged Base Building Structure: Sideways chop between $6.82 and $8.77 for an extended period Implication: Market digesting prior move, waiting on catalyst Setup: Range trading opportunities until directional conviction emerges Summary LTBR is perched at a critical confluence of structure, Gann angles, and volume support. The failure to hold the $7.73–$7.80 area could accelerate downside into less defended territory. All three momentum indicators are currently bearish or flat, offering no immediate reversal confirmation. Price is now testing prior base-building zones. This is a key spot where bulls must step in, or the next leg down toward $6.82 and $5.60 becomes increasingly probable.
NASDAQ:LTBR
by TenderTown
XAUUSD – Bullish Breakout Confirmed Ahead of GDP🟡 XAUUSD – Bullish Breakout Confirmed Ahead of GDP (Week 13 – 4H TPO Profile | March 26 Close) - ✅ **Failed Auction Long** triggered Monday off Previous Week VAL (3014) - ✅ **IBX Long** now confirmed — T closed above IB High (3033), U above PW-POC (3034) - ✅ **U-period printed a bullish engulfing candle**, signaling conviction through resistance - ✅ **Also closed above AMR High (3032)** — confirming expansion conditions - 📈 **Developing Value Area rising** (3014–3028), POC steady at 3016 - 🧠 Structure is leading → market accepting higher prices - ⚠️ **GDP release in ~3.5 hrs** — V-period will absorb or extend post-news - 🎯 Watching for continuation toward **3044–3050** (historical median cluster) - ❌ Reversal only on sharp rejection and close back below 3032 Conviction + Structure = Signal. The market’s spoken — now we manage it.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PipsnPaper
Tesla (TSLA) – Daily Chart AnalysisTechnical Landscape Immediate Resistance: Gap / Low Volume Zone: $288.14 – $338.79 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at ~$338.79 Major Resistance Above: 50% Retracement: ~$356.15 0.618 Fibonacci: ~$418.66 Key Support Levels: $246.45 (recent structural low) $220.48 $196.51 $180.80 Momentum Indicators RSI Currently rising and reclaiming the 50.00 level, a significant threshold. Momentum profile closely mirrors the November 2024 recovery (highlighted with circle). Prior surges from similar RSI+ structures led to multi-week uptrends. Trend Bullish crossover confirmed with expanding green histogram. Momentum is accelerating out of a deeply oversold condition—similar to the late 2024 rally initiation. Signal line separation is clear, suggesting short-term strength remains intact. On Balance Volume Just printed its first strong upturn in over two months. The curve has transitioned from flat to rising, forming a mirror image of the reversal seen in November 2024. While early, the formation suggests underlying accumulation and rotation back into strength. Scenarios Based on Current Structure Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Through Gap Zone Trigger: Break and hold above ~$288.14 (gap entry) with increasing volume and confirmation from RSI+ and WaveTrend. Structure: Price accelerates into low-volume gap region, seeking fill up to ~$338.79. Target 1: $338.79 (0.236 Fib) Target 2: $356.15 (50% retracement) Target 3: $418.66 (0.618 retracement) Momentum Bias: All three indicators currently favor bullish continuation. Scenario 2: Short-Term Rejection at Gap Resistance Trigger: Price rejects within $288–$300 and fails to sustain above the low-volume node. Price Response: Retests structural support near $246.45 or deeper at $220.48. Setup: Look for RSI+ to lose the 50 level and WaveTrend to flatten or recross down. Bias: Short-term corrective move, but still within a broader base-building structure. Scenario 3: Breakdown Back Into Range Trigger: A sharp reversal with high-volume rejection from the current rally leg, especially without full gap fill. Confirmation: Indicators roll over—WaveTrend flips negative, Volume Buoyancy breaks down. Target: $220.48 initially, then $196.51 and potentially $180.80 if broader market weakens. Implication: Reclassifies price action as a failed relief rally, resuming prior downtrend. Summary Tesla is in the early stages of a potential trend reversal. The alignment of RSI+, WaveTrend 3D, and Volume Buoyancy with prior bottoming conditions suggests further upside is likely if the stock clears the low-volume region starting at ~$288. That said, this is a structurally thin area, and rejection within the gap could send price back to major support zones. Volume will be key in validating breakout attempts. Should momentum fade and structural levels fail, the broader downtrend may reassert itself.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TenderTown
Robinhood (HOOD) – Daily Chart AnalysisAs of March 25, 2025, Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) is approaching a high-volume resistance level near $48.15–$48.48. Price has been rallying off a March low and is now testing key areas of confluence that could either trigger a breakout continuation or prompt a corrective move. Technical Overview Price Structure Current Resistance Zone: $48.15–$48.48, aligning with the Volume Profile High. Support Structure: Ascending trendline stretching from August 2024 lows; recent price behavior has respected this line cleanly. Fibonacci Levels 0.5 retracement at $56.49 0.618 extension above $60 These are potential upside targets if current resistance is cleared on volume. Momentum and Trend Indicators RSI The RSI indicator has turned upward and exited its prior downtrend channel. The last three times this indicator rebounded from its lower band (circled on chart), price followed with a sustained bullish leg. Currently printing near 54.68, suggesting renewed momentum without being overbought. Trend Recently flipped bullish: the green histogram has turned positive, and the wave has crossed above its signal line. Previous flips from similar structure (highlighted by white dots and wave crossovers) have marked strong trend beginnings. The clean separation between the wave and signal line is a confirmation of strength. Volume The most important tell: the recent reversal mirrors August and September 2024 setups nearly identically. The March 10, 2025, bottom was accompanied by a smooth upward curve and bullish divergence. The projected yellow path (shown on the chart) suggests volume support is building under price, signaling sustainable upside. Scenario-Based Outlook Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Price breaks above $48.48 with volume. Indicators confirm momentum across all three custom tools. Target: $56.49 (0.5 Fib), then $60.00–$62.00 (0.618 Fib + psychological level). Scenario 2: Rejection & Pullback Price stalls at Volume Profile High. Pullback into trendline or full retracement toward Buy Zone ($37–$36). Watch for renewed confluence from RSI+, WaveTrend 3D, and Volume Buoyancy for long re-entry. Summary Robinhood is at a critical juncture. Momentum across the RSI+, WaveTrend 3D, and Volume Buoyancy is aligned to support continuation—but the price must clear the Volume Profile High to confirm. If rejected, the trendline and deeper demand zone provide defined levels to reassess. Indicators suggest the recent bottom was a structural low with strength building beneath the surface. This setup offers a favorable risk-reward profile in both breakout and pullback scenarios, provided the indicators continue to support momentum and volume follows through.
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by TenderTown
What will happen first? BTC to 67k or to 100K?Hey traders! Long time no see. Looks like Trump and his team won’t be responsible for keeping the market healthy anymore—or maybe they just don’t care right now... So let’s check some technicals and try to figure out what to expect next. Not gonna lie, the picture isn’t looking too bright 🥹 Even though we’re moving up a bit, this price action feels more like a bearish flag—meaning we could be setting up for further downside (nervous laugh). Plus, that golden cross on the weekly chart isn’t giving bullish vibes, and volume is confirming our fears. So… if this plays out, does that mean no bull season for now? What do you think, guys? Any promising news out there?
Short
by SheTradesHub
KAVAUSD – Midpoint Retest with a Shot at a Daily Higher LowCOINBASE:KAVAUSD / COINBASE:KAVAUSDC Watching KAVA here on the daily, and it’s at a key decision point that could define the next leg. We’ve got two sets of Fibonacci retracements drawn: the first from the March 2024 high to the August 2024 low, and the second from the August low to the December high. Right now, price is retesting the 50% level of the larger March–August move—aka the midpoint of the macro range—and it's still holding above the 50% retracement of the more recent August–December leg. We’re also sitting right on the 38.2% Fib of that second move, which tends to act as a key area for potential higher lows. The idea here is simple: I’m playing for a daily higher low. We had a strong move off the December lows, followed by a healthy consolidation, and this is where bulls need to step in. Structure-wise, this is the ideal area for bulls to attempt a defense if the trend is going to continue. EMAs are curling up, and price is still holding above the 12 and 26 EMAs for now, which gives me confidence in a potential bounce. If the Trade Goes as Planned (Bullish Case) If buyers step in here and confirm a higher low—ideally somewhere between $0.48 and $0.50—we’d expect a continuation toward the recent high at $0.56. If that level breaks, then $0.64 becomes the next area of interest based on prior price structure and confluence with the upper Fib retracement levels. From there, we could even make a push toward the $0.74 area, where the last major rejection happened in late 2024. A strong bounce here also sets up a potential inverse head and shoulders structure on the daily if we revisit that neckline around $0.56 again with momentum. In short, a higher low here gives the bulls the setup they need to retake trend control. If the Trade Fails (Bearish Case) If price fails to hold the $0.48–$0.50 region and breaks below the August–December 50% Fib level, then we’re likely heading back to the $0.44 zone. That’s where the 200-day SMA is sitting, and it’s also a major pivot from previous support. A loss of that zone opens the door to a full retrace toward $0.39 or even $0.37—last seen during the November-December basing structure. In that case, the trend would flip neutral at best and would require a fresh base-building phase before bulls could even think about regaining momentum. TL;DR Thesis: Playing for a daily higher low above key Fib levels and EMAs. Bullish Target: Reclaim $0.56 → push toward $0.64–$0.74 if momentum follows through. Bearish Invalidator: Break below $0.48 = likely revisit of $0.44 or lower. Not financial advice. Just sharing my thinking as I try to stack confluence and play the levels. Let’s see if this bounce gets legs.
COINBASE:KAVAUSDLong
by seaphoss
IP – Coiled Triangle with a $10 STORY to Tell?COINBASE:IPUSD / COINBASE:IPUSDC We’ve got a clean symmetrical triangle forming post-initial listing volatility, and price is nearing the apex. Volume’s dropping off, just like you'd expect in the final stages of compression—classic pre-breakout behavior. What caught my eye here is how this triangle lines up with a Fibonacci extension target up near $10. Yeah, sounds bold, but zoom out on a log chart and it actually looks pretty reasonable. The measured move from the initial impulse, paired with the triangle breakout structure, gives a clear path to that 1.618 extension level. Throw in the fact that the volume profile starts thinning out above $6, and there’s potential for a swift move if it catches a bid. Triangle Compression and Breakout Setup We’re in the late innings of this triangle consolidation. Lower highs, higher lows, volume fading—textbook stuff. If price can get through the $6 zone with conviction, the structure says we could see an aggressive breakout. If not, we’re probably looking at one more fakeout or shakeout before direction resolves. Fibonacci Extension and Log Chart Math Using Fib extensions on a log scale paints a pretty compelling picture. $10 sits right at the 161.8% extension off the initial run, and log charts smooth out the scale enough to show how that level isn’t just hopium—it’s structured speculation. The triangle adds context: this isn’t about chasing highs, it’s about waiting for the breakout confirmation from a pattern that’s been compressing for weeks. Volume Profile and Context VPVR shows strong acceptance around $5 and fading resistance above. If bulls can flip that region into support, the path to higher prices opens up fast. A breakout from this triangle above $6.25 or so, ideally on volume, could be the signal that this thing is ready to move. Curious if anyone else is watching this chart. We’ve got a clear triangle, confluence with Fib levels, and log-scale structure supporting a much higher target. Could be a breakout worth watching—or just another consolidation that needs more time to cook. Not financial advice. Just tracking setups, patterns, and potential. Let’s see if the STORY plays out.
by seaphoss