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Bitcoin - Technical AnalysisDear Analysts and Traders, Looking at the Bitcoin price chart, I notice a variety of structures described by Technical Analysis. My attention is particularly drawn to elements related to the Elliott and Wyckoff methodologies. The market appears chaotic yet orderly at the same time. I must mention that I am not someone with formal education in this field. I am self-taught, placing a strong emphasis on using Technical Analysis as the main component of my decision-making process. This stems from my belief that although the chart is difficult to read, it largely allows for the interpretation of the hidden intentions of "smart money." I want to stress that the following words reflect only my personal point of view, which may not be correct, and that this publication is by no means investment or educational advice as understood by any law regulating such matters. I simply intend to ramble about topics I don’t fully understand. Background Bitcoin's price is in a long-term upward trend. Over the past year, there has been a strong upward trend within a broad sideways structure. Today, the price is near the upper boundary of this multi-year structure, and at the same time, at the lower limit of a smaller structure. Technical Analysis In my considerations, I will use elements of the Elliott, Wyckoff, and VSA methodologies. I begin by applying the key elements of these methodologies to the price chart from recent months. Starting with Elliott's five-wave approach, I outline the trend that has brought the price to these levels, marking it as (12345). Next, I highlight the three-wave corrective patterns with a white (ABC), creating a complex correction structure. I add events consistent with the Wyckoff method to the chart. Due to the complex nature of the studied structure, I decide to mark processes of varying scales. I do this with verbal descriptions in red and green, supplemented by horizontal lines indicating support and resistance. The structure described in red is the dominant one. I analyze the volume dynamics, marking them with dashed lines and a red loop. Additionally, I pay attention to candlesticks, especially in the context of VSA and their specific meaning in key areas, such as extremes or events related to the methodologies used. Interpretation and Thoughts Without a doubt, Bitcoin’s price structure is both intriguing and complex. Looking at the most basic elements of the chart, I see strength, and at the peaks, I don't notice setups like Trap UpMove or Upthrust with volumes significantly deviating from the average. Instead, there are numerous Shakeout events, often followed by local volume peaks in its declining trend. This is different from the setup at the point I marked as Phase C. According to Wyckoff’s method, this is where the largest volume since the halt of the uptrend has appeared. The Green Upthrust is particularly interesting. As part of a smaller structure, which I believe to be accumulative, it indicates No Demand. Of course, this is a sign of weakness, but what matters to me is the background, where significant potential distribution is evident, with signs of weakness seen through multiple breaches of the lower part of the trading range. I could treat this situation as Phase C, but of a distribution phase. However, I believe there is no overwhelming supply here, and in the actions of the Composite Man, I would expect an attempt to lead the crowd to the highest possible regions, trap them, and guide them to the inevitable. Here, the rhetoric is different—the market appears weak, but the area around Preliminary Supply has been strongly defended by the bulls. From an Elliott perspective, I see a complex correction, and I believe it is a triple three, consisting of a flat correction, a three, and a zigzag. The end of this series of corrections, in my opinion, begins Phase C of the highest-order accumulation in this area of the chart. Supporting the thesis of an accumulation process is the volume, which follows a characteristic pattern: huge volumes at the halt, followed by a steady decline in Phase B, particularly during the descent from the peak of the Red Upthrust. The test of Phase C is abrupt, and the price once again forms a smaller structure. Here, I expect a test to appear, especially on a higher timeframe, confirming No Supply. For now, despite the chart’s grim appearance, I see more of a transfer of assets from the crowd rather than an attempt to push the price significantly lower. The Bitcoin price chart presents a beautiful structure from a Technical Analysis perspective. I believe there is much more to be uncovered. I think my reflections on these price movements provide a basis to claim that an accumulation process is underway. Soon, confirmation of the lack of selling pressure will likely emerge—if I am interpreting the market correctly. The smaller Green Structure is a kind of retest that could evolve into a Turning Point. Soon, the market will reveal whether my assumptions are correct and make clearer that which allows for easy analysis... after the fact! Thank you all for taking the time to read my thoughts. I wish you successful analyses and winning positions! CatTheTrader
Long
by CatTheTrader
Two Roads to Profit. A Comparison of ICT/SMC and Advanced VSAHello traders and investors! When we start engaging in trading and investing, we get acquainted with various methods of forecasting price movements. Gradually, if we have enough persistence, strength, and patience, we choose our own path to profitable trades. Among the most popular approaches, we can highlight the use of various oscillators and channels, Dow Theory, Elliott Waves, Fibonacci levels, supply and demand, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), market auction theory, and the Inner Circle Trader/Smart Money Concept (ICT/SMC). Many traders combine elements from different approaches into their trading system. I personally prefer a concept I call Advanced VSA. It’s a comprehensive set of tools that combines ideas from VSA, Dow Theory, and Supply and Demand analysis. The name "Advanced VSA" perfectly captures the essence of the method, as it is fundamentally based on analyzing volume and price spread. Recently, the ICT/SMC concept has been gaining more and more popularity. Today, I want to explore the similarities and differences between ICT/SMC and Advanced VSA. If there are any inaccuracies in my explanation of ICT/SMC basics, feel free to correct me in the comments. Perhaps after reading this article, you’ll be able to decide which approach resonates more with you and which one you believe will help you in your trading. I hope this will be helpful. Let’s dive in! Basic Differences Before diving into the technical details, let's first clarify the key differences between these concepts. Who Controls Price Movements The ICT/SMC concept assumes that price movements are controlled by large players, such as market makers, who direct prices in the desired direction. This is similar to a model where one "center of power" determines the market's direction. In contrast, Advanced VSA is based on the idea that two forces influence price — the Buyer and the Seller. All analysis revolves around the interaction between these two sides, creating a more balanced model where both forces are equally important. Traded Volume The ICT/SMC concept does not use traded volume as a part of its analysis. In Advanced VSA, volume is an important factor. It is considered an integral part of the data that helps to understand market processes and the actions of participants. Now let’s move on to a detailed comparison of the elements of these concepts. What They Have in Common Both concepts teach traders to identify price ranges on the chart where a large player (Market Maker in ICT/SMC) or a Buyer (in Advanced VSA) shows interest in buying, and ranges where the Market Maker or Seller is interested in selling. When the price returns to these ranges, traders can execute buys or sells. We can call these price ranges contextual areas for buying and selling. Neither concept relies on technical indicators. Instead, they focus on the following key terms for identifying the trade direction and the trade entry point: Trend Trend break/half-trend Trend confirmation Accumulation/Distribution/Sideways movement/Flat Contextual areas for buying and selling The first four terms help determine the direction of the trade, while the fifth helps identify the entry point and the likely target of the trade. Both methods suggest using higher timeframes to find contextual areas and lower timeframes to find entry points within those areas. What Are the Differences The differences between the concepts lie in the interpretation of key terms. For the first four terms (trend, trend break, trend confirmation, accumulation/distribution/Sideways movement), the distinctions are minor and relate mostly to specific interpretations. However, the main differences arise in the rules for identifying contextual areas of interest (buyer, seller, or market maker). Let's look at these differences in more detail. Difference 1: Use of Volume In ICT/SMC, contextual areas of interest are determined solely based on price action and candlestick patterns, without taking traded volume into account. In contrast, Advanced VSA sees volume as an integral part of the analysis. contextual areas of interest are identified by both traded volume and price behavior (candlestick patterns). If there was interest from a buyer, seller in a specific price range, leading to a price change, it's logical to assume that the volume traded in that range should be higher than in previous periods over a similar timeframe. To illustrate the importance of using all available data for analysis, consider an analogy with choosing the best time for a seaside vacation. If the decision is based only on water and air temperature, while ignoring factors like wind or rainfall, the choice may be misguided. For example, choosing April for its comfortable temperature might result in encountering constant rain and high waves. Thus, in Advanced VSA, volume plays a crucial role, whereas it is absent in ICT/SMC. Difference 2: Types of Contextual Areas of Interest In ICT/SMC, the following types of contextual areas of interest are used: order block, breaker, mitigation block, and rejection block. All of these areas are formed by a specific arrangement of candles on the chart. In contrast, Advanced VSA operates with a different set of contextual areas of interest: effort, zone, and range (sideways movement). Effort refers to a single candle or bar that indicates significant market activity. Zone is formed by a sequence of candles or bars, taking into account their traded volumes. Range (sideways movement) is defined by a series of consecutive candles/bars where price fluctuates within a limited range, interacting alternately with the upper and lower boundaries of the range. It's only possible to identify which party (buyer, seller, or market maker) controls the range after the price breaks out and confirms the move. If the volumes align with Advanced VSA's criteria, order blocks and mitigation blocks in ICT/SMC can be considered as zones in Advanced VSA. So, not all order blocks and mitigation blocks will be considered zones in Advanced VSA. The breaker will be discussed separately, and there is no equivalent to the rejection block in Advanced VSA. Difference 3. Price Attraction Points In ICT/SMC, concepts such as fair value gap, liquidity void, and liquidity are used to describe price attraction points. In Advanced VSA, the terms fair value gap and liquidity void are not utilized. Most of the time, these ICT/SMC elements correspond to price interest points in Advanced VSA, such as effort. The term liquidity has the same meaning. Difference 4. Importance of Levels In Advanced VSA, levels play an important role in identifying trade opportunities. To understand the significance of levels, let’s first recall the concepts of trend and range (sideways movement). In both ICT/SMC and Advanced VSA, a trend is broken down into components, often referred to as impulses or expansion moves. A range, on the other hand, is characterized by its boundaries and the vectors of price movement between those boundaries. In Advanced VSA, important trading signals include the defense of a broken level or a price retracement to a level followed by its defense. In Advanced VSA, the defense of a broken level or the cancellation of a breakout (where the price returns back behind the broken level) followed by a defense of that level is considered a signal for identifying trades. This method helps traders spot potential entry points where either buyers or sellers to protect a key price level, giving more confidence in the direction of the market. The most important levels include the base of the last impulse, the boundaries of a range, and the test level of a zone. In ICT/SMC, there are no direct equivalents of these elements when it comes to searching for trades. However, breakers and sometimes mitigation blocks serve similar purposes to the levels in Advanced VSA, but the approaches differ. In ICT/SMC, trades are typically executed within the breaker or mitigation block, whereas in Advanced VSA, trades are found when a level is defended: buy trades above the level (supported by buyers), and sell trades below the level (supported by sellers). Additionally, Advanced VSA allows for trading within ranges, moving from one boundary to the other, as long as the boundaries are defended. Summary Despite the shared terms and similar approaches, there are significant differences between the two concepts: Number of forces influencing price movement: In ICT/SMC, it is believed that price is controlled by a single force, the Market Maker (MM). In contrast, Advanced VSA considers the interaction of two forces—buyers and sellers—as driving price movements. Use of volume in analysis: ICT/SMC does not take traded volume into account during analysis, while in Advanced VSA, volume is a crucial element for identifying market forces and areas of interest. Use of levels for trade entries: In ICT/SMC, levels do not play an important role, whereas in Advanced VSA, levels one of the possible places for identifying potential trade setups. Good luck with your trading and investing!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by AlexeyWolf
2
Technical Analysis on Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR)Palantir ( PLTR ) is currently in a short-term bullish phase, as indicated by the green trendline, which began in May 2023 with the breakout of the descending trendline (orange) accompanied by a gap up and increasing volume. The stock has recently broken above the resistance zone R1, which it is currently retesting. Bullish Scenario: A short-term bullish scenario would see a move toward the next resistance level R2 in the $38-$40 area. Bearish Scenario: If the retest of resistance R1 fails, the stock could move towards the support areas, where potential entries could be considered if one anticipates a rebound: The POC area around $24; The weekly support S1; The weekly support S2. The support zones S2 and S1 are more clearly visible on a monthly timeframe:
P
by Giovanni_Bandini
This Is The #1 Crypto Buy..Here Is WhyYesterday i made a decision to STOP Gambling.. What does this mean? It means I am to stop using Margin Trading Accounts.. I have been trying to stop margin trading but after learning the following 3 step system everything in my mind changed for the the better... Would you like to know about this system? Its called the rocket booster strategy and it's very simple... It has the following steps: #1 Price has to be above the 50 MA #2 Price has to be above the 200 MA #3 The price should gap up Using this system you can this play out on the chart above If you would like to learn more rocket boost this content WARNING!! Trading is risky, you will lose money whether you like it or not please learn risk management and profit-taking strategies.
Long
by lubosi
Meta (META): Watching for a SetbackIt has been a lovely rise within META since 2023. However, we are now continuing to range for some time, which is usually a sign of a possible setback before a continuation. This setback could be beneficial for sustainable growth and further rises. Zooming in, we can observe a range building since February 2024. This range has been respected multiple times so far, and it seems likely to continue. However, the small breach of the top looks somewhat like a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) and could be a signal of profit-taking by many traders. If we breach through the $440 level, we could see a change of structure if a candle closes below it. If this happens, it would confirm our analysis. Until then, we might see higher prices as this is technically still a bullish trend within this range. Another small indicator supporting our view is the bearish divergence on the RSI. While RSI is a good indicator with a high win rate, it’s not infallible, so this scenario might not play out. Still, this seems the most likely outcome to us at the moment.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
5
BODAL CHEMICAL-LOOK-FOR-BUY-WITH-CHEAT-ENTRY(VCP)This chart presents a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) , signaling a potential bullish breakout. The integration of moving averages and volume dynamics adds further strength to this analysis, indicating that the stock could soon break out above its resistance. Below is a detailed breakdown, including a volume study. --- 1. VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern): - The chart shows multiple contractions in price , with each pullback becoming progressively smaller. This tightening is a hallmark of the VCP pattern, indicating that sellers are losing strength, and buyers are gradually gaining control. - The final resistance zone is located between ₹85-₹88 . A breakout above this level would confirm the VCP and signal a strong bullish continuation. --- 2. Moving Averages (9 SMA & 21 SMA): - Price above both SMAs : The stock is trading above both the 9-period and 21-period simple moving averages (SMAs), which is a strong bullish indicator. This alignment suggests that short-term momentum is in favor of the bulls. - 9 SMA above 21 SMA : The 9-period SMA being above the 21-period SMA signifies that the shorter-term trend is leading the way, which adds confidence to a possible continuation of the uptrend. --- 3. Volume Study : Volume During Contractions : - A crucial part of identifying a valid VCP is the decreasing volume during price contractions . In the chart, each successive pullback shows lower volume, which indicates that fewer traders are willing to sell as the stock price drops. This aligns perfectly with the concept of volatility contraction, showing that selling pressure is fading. Volume on Upward Moves: - Each upward move is accompanied by increasing volume , indicating that buyers are stepping in to accumulate shares. This is a strong confirmation that the price contractions are valid and that institutional buyers might be behind these moves, building up positions for a future breakout. Volume on Breakout: For a confirmed breakout, watch for a volume spike above ₹85-₹88 . A large increase in volume during the breakout would confirm that the pattern is playing out and that the price could shoot upward to the next resistance zone around ₹95-₹100. --- 4. Low Cheat Entry Opportunity: - Entry at CMP (₹83-₹84): A low cheat entry is possible at the CMP of ₹83-₹84, which allows you to enter the stock before the breakout occurs. This type of early entry can offer a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio. - Stop Loss : Place a tight stop loss around ₹82 , just below the recent low and the 9 SMA. This minimizes risk while allowing you to stay in the trade if the breakout occurs. - Volume Support: As you enter at this level, watch for **volume support** on smaller pullbacks. If the stock dips slightly but maintains increasing volume on upward movements, it’s a good sign the pattern is intact. --- 5. Breakout Confirmation : - The ₹85-₹88 resistance zone is the key level to watch. For the VCP to fully play out, the stock needs to break above this zone, ideally with strong volume to confirm the breakout. - If the stock breaks this level, expect a surge in price with a target around ₹95-₹100 , based on prior resistance levels and the projected move from the VCP. --- 6. Risk-to-Reward Ratio : - Risk : By entering at ₹83-₹84 and placing a stop loss around ₹82, the downside risk is limited to about 1-2% . - Reward : The upside target can range from ₹95 to ₹100 , offering a potential *b]15-20% gain , which gives an excellent risk-to-reward ratio of about 15%. --- Conclusion : This chart shows a strong b]bullish setup , with the VCP pattern tightening for a potential breakout. The moving averages confirm the bullish momentum, with price trading above both the 9 and 21 SMAs, and volume contraction indicates that selling pressure is diminishing. A low cheat entry around ₹83-₹84 offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, while a breakout above ₹85-₹88 with increasing volume could signal the start of a strong upward move toward ₹95-₹100 . --- Key Action Plan : - Entry : Enter at CMP around ₹83-₹84 . - Stop Loss : Set a stop loss around ₹82 to minimize risk. - Volume Monitoring : Watch for volume contraction on pullbacks and spikes on upward moves. - Breakout : If the stock breaks above ₹85-₹88 with strong volume , expect a strong upward move toward ₹95-₹100 . This setup presents a high-potential opportunity for traders looking for an early entry into a VCP breakout , supported by both moving averages and volume dynamics.
NSE:BODALCHEMLong
by minion_traders