Big Citibank Opportunity Citibank Opportunity - NYSE:C
Company Market Cap: $82.2 billion
Share Price Today: $42.68
Dividend: 0.53c per quarter (Annual Dividend of c.$2.06)
Annual Dividend Yield: 4.82%
Next Earnings Report: Friday 13th October 2023
Citibank (Citigroup) is the 20th largest bank in the world & a member of Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs) meaning it has stricter prudential regulation such as higher capital requirements and extra surcharges and more stringent stress tests. under the scheme deposits can be 100% guaranteed in the event of a crisis, which is not the case for smaller banks that are not considered systemically important. This additional security can add weight to a longer term hold for Citibank combined with a good 4.82% dividend yield.
Citibank has recently been in the headlines with negative news for completing a management re-org with substantial lay-offs. Whilst the news is interpreted as negative, the chart appears to reaching a point of exhaustion after 31 months of downward price pressure and a roughly 50% reduction in price from $81 down to $42. We may be forming a 3rd higher price cluster or price launch pad here at $42.
Earnings release is in a 4 and half weeks on 13thOctober and after 13 quarters of positive earnings the trend is green. Its worth noting that upon earnings release, the price can capitulate or ascend aggressively (historically this has been the way), this is why it is important to be placing bids or positions well in advance of the release (now) and on the day of the release we should be nimble and on our toes to capitalize or reduce risk with stop losses. Obviously for long term position players this is not all that important, we have our long term target and stop loss on the chart.
There is a long term trade opportunity with a stop loss at BASE 2 at $34.37. As you can see the trade has a Risk/Reward of 4:1. People who want to play it even safer could wait for a bounce off BASE 2 but for me a retracement this low could mean lower price momentum and a break of the RSI resistance. This is why I am inclined to take a position now off this base well in advance of the earnings release.
This is not my typical style of trade however I could not pass up the chart given the mid-term 31 month 50% reduction and exhaustion in price combined with the higher bases on the longer term trajectory, and to be honest the negative news really got me the contrarian in me rustled. If you look hard enough you can see a potential long term ascending triangle forming out into the 5 year time horizon. As a cherry to the trade, the dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution – to big to fail.
In Summary
- Citigroup is one of the top 20 banks in the world
and is considered systemically important.
- Citigroup share price has been declining 31 months
with an approx. 50% reduction in price.
- Three Price Bases establishing higher lows are
reinforced by a rising RSI support line.
- To fully take advantage of the earnings release on
13th October 2023 positions need to be placed now
as the stock is extremely volatile on the day of
release.
- If the RSI support line fails to hold this could be a
warning signal of a break down into STRONG
SUPPORT ZONE (Red).
- The dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for
a systemically important institution offering a little
incentive for a longer term hold.
Volume
Perfect example of Bearish DivergenceBoth OBV and RSI show weakness as price makes a higher high, this is a perfect indication of a trend reversal. OBV (on balance volume) measures buying and selling pressure, RSI (relative strength index) measures the momentum of price. Combining these 2 indicators allows you to identify a change in the market before price does.
Tesla (TSLA): Expecting a Pullback Before the Next RiseIn our livestream a few days ago, we talked about the impressive rise in Tesla's stock. Since our last analysis on June 13th, the stock has jumped 38% in just 19 days. This was somewhat expected because there was a lot of negative sentiment towards Tesla, which often leads to a significant rise. Congratulations to everyone who believed in Tesla with us. Our position is currently profitable, and the stock looks very strong.
Current Situation:
The current situation shows that Tesla has risen 40 % in less than 25 days, even though there was a lot of negative sentiment. The stock is very strong right now, but a pullback is likely. We think the stock could go up to $256, finishing the sub-wave 3. After hitting this level, we expect a Wave 4 correction, which will give us a chance to make more entries.
Strategy:
We plan to enter between $217 and $200. We will set the stop-loss at about $198 to protect against a failed Wave 4 scenario. Our strategy involves expecting the Wave 4 correction to close follow-up gaps and retest important levels. Even though the performance is strong, we should be careful as this could still be a temporary rise before another drop (a dead cat bounce).
In conclusion, Tesla has shown impressive strength, but we expect a pullback before it goes up further. We are targeting the $256 level for the completion of Wave 3 and plan to enter more between $217 and $200, with a stop-loss at $198. We remain cautiously optimistic and will keep a close eye on the situation.
How to read Volume properlyIn this video, I explain how to interpret volume bars in conjunction with price movements. Recognizing large volume bars is crucial for understanding significant market interest, especially when they accompany substantial percentage changes in the underlying asset. These insights can help confirm institutional buying, signal the beginning or end of uptrends, and indicate the start of sell-offs or the end of downtrends.
For example, large green volume bars can suggest the start of an uptrend or confirm institutional buying, while large red volume bars can signal the beginning of a sell-off or the end of a downtrend. This indicator simplifies the process of reading volume bars, making it easier to extract valuable insights from them.
07/08 - 6E - SellDaily/4H
- What is the trend?
• Bearish
1H
- Is price touching a key fib level (yellow)? (Gold is tricky so look for .382 and .786 levels too)
• No
- Does 1H supply/demand align with key fib level?
• Yes
- Is price above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 20 EMA, resisting the 20 EMA, or crossing the 20 EMA?
• Yes
○ Is Volume at or above average (MA) at this time?
• Yes
- Is RSI pointing in trend direction or above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 50 line?
• Yes
Plus:
- Is 1H supply/demand aligned with 4H OB/supply/demand area?
• Yes
15M
- Is/has price touched 1H zone or fib level?
• Yes
- Is there RSI convergence/divergence?
• Yes
- Is price above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 20 EMA, resisting the 20 EMA, or crossing the 20 EMA?
• Yes
○ Is Volume at or above average (MA) at this time?
• Yes
CAD/CHF continues the downtrend On CAD/CHF, it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 0.65810 and 0.66010. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
EUR/GBP Day Trading analysisOn EUR/GBP , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 0.84720. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
EUR/USD continue with the UptrendOn EUR/USD, it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.07610.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
Wheat Futures Analysis: Market Trends and Key LevelsThe wheat prices have witnessed a significant decrease since May 2022.
After analyzing the different market volume profiles of each weekly up and down trend (as presented by the multiple fixed range volume profile histogram in the chart), we can predict the range or the accumulation of the biggest Wheat whales. This range is presented in a white rectangle in the chart and lies between USX BUA .
This range also coincides with the strong monthly support presented by the green line.
The first target of this accumulation is projected to be 760'0 USX BUA , indicated by the red dashed line.
IOUSDT could bounce back to VA on 2h TF Hi Traders , posting my first Idea here
*not an expert so be cautious* ------------------- *dont use leverage*
if the BTC drama is done , seems like the selloff is cooling ddown
market needs some relief
this IOUSDT got a decent avarage daily trading volume
so if my reading is done right we gotta pay a visit back to VA on 2h TF
my trade structure gonna be like this:
ENTRY : 2.3
PROFIT: 3.3
STOP LOSS : 2
good luck freinds, feel free ta add an opinion if u notice anything wrong
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now that everything in crypto seems highly correlated every where i go i see same chart diffrent tickers ;
for me its very annoying environement to find scalping ideas specially while being long biased small cap trader
in the same time volume is being very slippery , spreaded & rounded between 3 to 5 coins which i find it difficult to catch , so if u guys know good metrics to track and read volume , always appreciate a learning tip in comments
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Polygon | MATIC The price of Polygon is $1.09 today with a 24hour trading volume of 444 million dollar.
After trading near the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern for a few days, Polygon turned down and reached the support line but it still hold the uptrend
The flattening 50day EMA ($1.13) and the RSI below 50 indicate that the bulls may be losing their grip. If the price breaks below the support line, it will tilt the short term advantage in favor of the bears. The MATIC/USDT pair may then back to the 200day SMA 1 $ where the buyers are likely to mount a strong defense and hold the line.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the resistance line. That could open the doors for a potential rally to $1. 30
Polygon is gaining traction in the gaming industry with a surge in daily unique active wallets last month, according to DappRadar, the layer2 scaling solution recorded 138,081 dUAWs in March, a 53% increase from the previous month.this growth has pushed Polygon to become the second largest gaming blockchain, trailing only Wax Blockchain, which has over 314,976 daily unique active wallets.
Despite the decrease in on-chain gaming activity by 3.33% in March, games still make up a significant part of DApp activities, accounting for 45.6% of the industry’s activity in Q1 2023. Boomland’s Hunters On Chain, which launched on Polygon’s testnet last month, has already risen to become one of the top five blockchain games in terms of on-chain DApp activity.
next targets for short term are 1.15, 1.19 and 1.27$
what do you think about the price of Matic at the end of 2023? can we back to 2$?
Kellton Tech Kellton Tech IT company, shown good move.
It was facing resistance at 110, that was cleared last week. now has made a kind of double top at rs 118, above 118 we may see a spike of 128 which was its ath / 52 wk high.
Above that we may see a fresh leg of rally in this counter.
Company works in AI an cloud sector.
Centrica - bullish divergence*investment opportunity*
A 90% correction since 2014 and following oversold condition there now exists an excellent opportunity to buy this stock.
The 10-day chart above confirms a regular bullish divergence between price action and the oscillators + higher low in price action. This is the start of a trend reversal. Price action is now in the bullish half of the Bollinger band as the mouth is constricting, which suggests a big move is coming.
On the fundamentals Centrica engages in the provision of energy and supply services. There is no end of ‘bad news’ stories on the business. Pay no attention. The only news you need is the headlines in the charts, and they look amazing.
A buy above 42 is good. 1st target 115
2-month chart - broken RSI resistance following oversold condition:
3-month chart - bullish morning star + confirmation
Shiba Going Lower Low Volume on Bounce: The recent upward movement in SHIB's price is accompanied by low trading volume, indicating weak buying interest. This suggests that the current price increase may not be sustainable.
The RSI is currently at 74.27, which is close to the overbought territory (above 70). This suggests that SHIB may be overbought and could be due for a correction or consolidation.
Further support is around 0.0000120000 USDT, another significant support zone seen in the chart.
Bitcoin Going LowerBTC is currently trading around $57,939.8
The low volume on recent bounces suggests that the current upward movement may not be sustainable. The price is likely to face significant resistance around the $60,000 zone.
High Volume on the Bounce (Early May):
A significant bounce with high volume indicates strong buying interest, suggesting a possible short-term trend reversal at that time.
Low Volume on Recent Bounces (June and July):
Recent bounces are characterized by low volume, indicating weak buying interest and a lack of conviction in the upward move. This pattern aligns with the concept of a dead-cat bounce, where the recovery is temporary and often followed by a continuation of the downward trend.
Always consider your risk tolerance and investment strategy before making trading decisions.
BTC According to Elliott Waves, we are still in the fourth wave which extends from 73777 to 49950.
Sometimes Bitcoin exceeds the wave level,
I Think that Bitcoin is not finished falling, and will start falling from 74,000 – 71,000 to the red level of 55,900 – 49,900.
Then after that we will witness a real bull run extending to 85,000
AKRO Bullish Rise I've labeled areas of confluence on the chart.
Global 618 golden pocket with an orderblock nicely paired with imbalances beneath as a magnet to pull price up.
The white line is the yearly Vwap and that snap point (Hard Knee) is in my area of confluence. Thats the yearly reset of the volume weighted average price. Price tends to revisit these levels.
I pulled the volume profile over candles that I though made more sense as a true buy sell aggregation. The Value area high, the value area low are marked. The Point of Control happily sits inside the Vwap snap point + 618 level + Orderblock with imbalance.
Defi Finance will get a push soon imo.
Not financial advice.
Monero back in "Fair Value"Of all cryptocurrencies I see Monero KRAKEN:XMRUSD differently as a good "store of value" which is private. That makes me a little looser with my trading guidelines for other assets. Monero has also proven difficult to trade in recent years... it has had some volatile swings but overall has broadly kept its value.
The recent cryptocurrency downtrend, led by Bitcoin, has finally caused the otherwise resilient Monero to break back into the 140 range. 140 on Monero for the last several years I have seen as "fair value" to accumulate. This is also the 50% Retracement of the recent trend and the Volume Profile Point of Control.
BTC July Trading StrategyAt the end of June, BTC transitioned to a D1 summer range (tentatively 58,000-73,000). This marks the start of a long-term trend pull-back, which opens up the possibility of a deeper pull-back to the 50,000 zone (check BTC 2024-2025 outlook).
However, during the last weekend, we saw a significant long interest coming into the market from the bottom boundary of the D1 range, confirming a strong support zone there.
Therefore, the interaction of these two factors will likely cause the market to settle into a short-term range between 61,000 and 66,000 before the medium-term scenario becomes clear (either staying within the D1 range or experiencing a deeper pull-back).
Such market conditions should be favorable for intraday trading within this short-term range:
selling when the price approaches the upper boundary (66000)
buying when the price nears the lower boundary (61000)
The risk lies in the potential end of the range and the realization of one of the two medium-term scenarios.
BNBUSDT. Trading opportunityOn the daily timeframe, the sideways movement that began in March continues. Yesterday, the seller pushed the price back below the upper boundary of the range at 645.2. The closing candle had a good spread and volume, confirming the seller's strength. The current seller's vector is 9-10, with a potential target at 508. The nearest obstacle for the seller is at 586.5. The price is close to 50% of the last buyer's impulse (608.8), from which a buyer's movement might start.
On the hourly timeframe, there is a short-term downtrend. The last seller's impulse started at 653.7, and a seller's zone has formed at the base of this impulse (indicated by the red rectangle on the chart). It is preferable to look for selling opportunities in this seller's zone (645-654). However, the price may not return to this zone.
Currently, selling opportunities can be sought if the seller defends the level of 645.2, as an idea to realize the seller's vector 9-10 within the daily timeframe range.
There is no context for buying at the moment.