Nasdaq Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
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Well, this right here is my primary bear case for the Nasdaq. Keep in mind, this is just a single bear case from my perspective; there's always many different potential outcomes, and it's my duty to discover them, and share them with you - the trader.
>Just because you are seeing this picture here today, does not mean this is what will happen .
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Tuesday November 29th 2022 ~ December 21st 2022 = my calculated top for the Nasdaq.
Estimated to sit between $13,016 ~ $15,308.
High probability target = $13,697.
ps. if money rotates, or a proper catalyst appears, nasdaq could squeeze up to some of the higher targets on my chart to create a regular or expanded flat.
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Friday May 12th 2023 ~ Tuesday October 24th 2023 = my calculated bottom.
Estimated to sit between $9449 ~ $7361.
High probability target = $8085.
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🔺
VOLX
nasdaq, end of year (bullish) projection{this is not my primary count}
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good evening,
this is an argument against the plethora of bearish cases that are out there.
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shorts outweigh the longs heavily going into the end of this year.
more shorts = short squeeze.
i'm talking an unreasonable rally right into the very last day of this year-
and on the first of january, when santa goes back home to the north pole,
the markets plummet face first off the top of a mountain.
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new years target = $14,500
nq 7-5 update~good evening,
whole market looks to be creating somewhat of a sandwich.
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looking for a little pop to 11935 ~ 12061
followed by a drop to back-test the range lows.
if the range lows successfully hold as support, a slightly larger move up can take place after july 13th.
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overall though, i don't see the market going anywhere for awhile;
just going to be chopping around for many more months to come.
qqq 6-15 updateqqq looks like it wants to pop in the days ahead,
market is very tech heavy, so it will likely lead the way for the rest of the sectors.
might even save spy if jpow plays his cards right.
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we have a 🍓 super full moon today - a bullish indication.
i'm looking for a bear trap some time between today and friday, potentially to raid the lows before we see a pretty big short squeeze to the upside.
there's plenty of gaps, we could fill them all.
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15 days of bullish momentum incoming, followed by another 2 weeks of 🔻.
Nasdaq 4-10 update ~I mentioned this last week briefly;
I think big tech is going to drag the whole market down.
nq is currently on the verge of completing a 5 wave impulse to the downside
after which, i'm looking for a 3 wave move to the upside to retrace 61~65% of the drop (before continuation to the downside).
targets are right on the chart.
VIX potential for dips! | 8th March 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a short pullback from our sell entry at 34.58 in line with 100% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 30.61 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection and 100% Fibonacci extension. Divergence is spotted on RSI, further supporting our bearish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
VIX potential for further bullish continuation! | 7th March 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 30.45 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 34.04 in line which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Technical indicators are supporting our bullish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
nasdaq 2-24 update ~nasdaq ended up playing out my original bias and hitting the downside target from my last post,
after further observing the wave count, i do have to lean with 2 more legs down in the days \ week ahead.
it might look scary as it's happening, but keep an eye out on the levels on my chart 💸
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once this move is completed, we should see a pretty fat move to the upside (to make a lower high), followed by a true capitulatory event to the downside - that's when real panic will set in, and things will hit the fan.
nasdaq 2-22 update ~morning,
as per a special request - here's my nasdaq projections.
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there is three potential trajectories from the current levels.
#1. implies that we've bottomed, and we will begin a mean retracement to the upside to correct the 5 wave impulse.
#2. implies that we have not completed wave 5 yet, and will continue trending down until the wave 5 algo target is hit (after which we will begin a mean retracement).
#3. implies an expanded wave 5th (after hitting the expanded wave 5 target, a mean retracement to the upside will take place).
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12 year nasdaq count:
there's a good chance that wave 3 is completed on the monthly timeframe, which would suggest that we're going to be seeing a larger wave 4 corrective phase take place.
this could potentially last for a few years, and it is heavily reliant on dxy.
since wave 2 was a sharp correction, the law of alternation suggests that wave 4 will be a complex corrective phase.
it could take the form of a triangle, or something more simple like a wxy, wxyxz, etc.
which ever form it does end up taking, i would be expecting a move down to the bottom of our larger pitchfork before it is completed.
trade safe!
💸
VOLX is on bearish momentum! | 16th Feb 2022Prices are on bearish momentum. We see potential for bearish continuation from our sell entry at 25.25 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 22.86 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. MacD is supporting our bias by showing bearish momentum.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
VIX is on bearish momentum! | 10th Feb 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 21.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 18.15 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. MacD is showing bearish momentum and prices are trading under our EMA 28, further supporting our bearish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
VIX always best predictorIt is necessary and mandatory to configure alarms in VIX in order to identify best trading opportunities. Analyzing the VIX we realize that we are in a very overweighted buying zone.
- Red lines: time to sell.
- Green lines: time to buy.
For example today is time for selling most items of our portafolio or at least to configure trailing stop at 1%, then we wil have to wait patiently until next buying opportunity.
Remember what Warren Buffett said... "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."