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VOO

240729 Weekly OutlookThe following week have major data release including, 240730 Tue CB Consumer Confidence **** 240731 Wed Fed Interest Rate Decision ***** 240801 Thu Initial Jobless Claims **** 240801 Fri Nonfarm Payrolls ***** Unemployment Rate ***** Consumer Confidence is the major leading indicator alongside Michigan Consumer index. Investors should follow the rise of two indexes to lead increase in economic data like inflation, GDP, labor market conditions, as well as economic conditions. Fed rate is expected to remain unchanged, while market discounting the first cut in the cycle to come in September. Labor market show resilience all the way that give space to maintain higher rates in this cycle for longer. Even the first rate cute is forecasted for September, I would still expect the higher rates to stay here for longer period due to resilient labor market, as shown by labor market indicators. There are no signs for S&P to weaken this time, rather shuttle up and down at high levels. Note that last adjustment in S&P followed the deviation of 12% from major trend line 200SMA. Attentive investors could observe it previously. When the market finally digest selling orders, S&P should resume the rising trend.
AMEX:VOO
by moncap2023
Stock Market vs Govt Bond Market. At the Dawn of ChangesIt's been 3 months or so since the late March quarter bullish exuberance took the stock market, Ethereum (ETHUSD), Bitcoin (BTCUSD), other crypto assets to their new 52-week and all-time highs. This is now changing, while the stock market and cryptocurrency markets have stopped making new highs, despite the fact that Roaring Kitty is once again deafening everyone with her phenomenal calls. Quite high inflation reports for the first quarter of 2024 became a kind of “cold shower” both for the market and for expectations of a possible reduction in interest rates, while the markets have been living this still unfulfilled dream for almost the last year and a half. The Federal Open Market Committee is unlikely to adjust rates at its upcoming next meeting on June 11-12. In any case, the prospect of any immediate rate adjustments is estimated at a modest 0.1 percent. It has been nearly a year since the FOMC last raised the federal funds rate to its current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% in July 2023. And while FOMC members have signaled that labor market weakness could force them to cut interest rates, the labor market remains broadly resilient and unemployment low. Fixed income markets are forecasting that September could be the first interest rate cut of the cycle. However, this is not certain as the estimated odds are currently around 50%. And again, these forecasts implied by the market can quickly adapt to economic news, and again - turn out to be unfulfilled dreams, just like the dreams of rate cuts that, as discussed above, markets have been living with for the last year and a half. The main technical chart is the ratio, between iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) that is similar to mostly known SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (SPY) on the one hand, and Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) on the other hand. Both ETFs (IVV, TLT) were taken in "Total return" format. In technical terms, the graph indicates on Bullish upside channel, as right here we're near its upper line, exactly like 17 years ago in second quarter of 2007. Auxiliary RSI(14) chart indicates also that Stock/ Bond ratio is too overheated in favor to stocks. The idea should not be seen as a call for immediate action. However, it is wise to keep in mind that investing in stocks can seriously underperform Govt Bonds in the medium to long term.
AMEX:IVV
by Pandorra
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin this yearStock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period. It's been an unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally. Shares have delivered a mixed performance so far in 2023, amid SVB crisis, high inflation and interest rate hikes, so while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies. Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios. But will 2023 follow the trend? The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor . This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia . What drives the Santa rally? Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices Will there be a Santa rally this year? Probably, Yes. November "capped off the best three months" for global shares since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. Treasuries rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas. Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes not. The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year. The main technical graph for SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust AMEX:SPY says that we right now somewhere around 460 U.S. dollars per share (relevant to 4'600 points for CBOE:SPX Index), and just one step to break it out to reach CBOE:SPX 5'000 Milestone by the end of the year. Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken from Q4'22. And that is all. Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2024 Year! 💖💖
AMEX:SPY
by Pandorra
32
VOO - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Strong rising trend channel in the medium long term. 🔹POSITIVE signal breakout 401 resistance in Rectangle Formation. 🔹Between support 395 and resistance 424, 439. 🔹RSI rises to 70 due to recent price rise. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:VOOLong
by wavepoint99
VOO : Not out of the woods yetI believe the VOO for the S&P500 is still in the bear market range. Likely that the index will trade sideways within the support and resistance levels until the inflation rates are showing signs of improvement. Or when the Fed starts to reduce interest rates. The index will have to surpass the 396 level to get out of the bear market and enter a bull market. This is around 20% gain from the recent low of 328 back in Sep 2022. Despite ongoing concerns on the weakening of USD and potential falls of more banks globally, I believe the market decline thus far has priced in those impact. Note that USD strengthened to never before seen levels during the pandemic. Hence I believe, it is currently correcting its levels to normalcy. Risks to the VOO; - Further increase in interest rates - USD weakening to below the pre-pandemic levels - Hyperinflation environment in the US economy - Unforeseen black swan
AMEX:VOO
by Dynamiac
SPX Jamie Dimon: economic hurricane coming our way!Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO: "Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself." Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation, interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. I have 2 scenarios: the most optimistic is that SPX formed and inverse head and shoulders chart pattern and it will close the year at the same level that it started it, around $4900. And the worst case scenario is if Jamie Diamon is right and we are going lower after this bounce to the resistance. In this case, the first strong support is $3400. I see that it go lower only if oil stays higher than $140 - 150 for this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SP:SPX
by TopgOptions
VTI massive monthly Head and Shoulders VTI has a monthly bearish divergence in RSI. There is massive head and shoulders forming. Headlines coming about how money is flowing in. I believe they just want money to flow in so they can have liquidity to dump into. The market has had the most orderly decline this year that I know of. I still believe massive downside is in store for ETF's, blue chips that haven't fallen yet (AHEM $AAPL) and oil as well after the fantastic year it just had. We have been goin straight up since GFC and now it's time to give some back. Hopefully not too much. First price target is green ray.
AMEX:VTIShort
by sjshanesy
hiking can be exhausting It is my opinion that some form of a top is here. i have closed my calls..... even if we don't sell off and just go sideways; i don't think we will see higher all of dec. which means no santa rally this year. the bullish run should continue very early jan (jan 4 maybe) 2023. as an overview. i do think the bear market is over. i do think the bull market will continue well into next year, but nothing goes straight up and 20% move is a decent move. happy holidays to all.
AMEX:SPY
by Oppollo
2
SPX - Long term uptrend line unlikely to hold.SPX - Long term uptrend line unlikely to hold. Even if prices where to be halted at the yellow uptrend line (SPX 1750), this still represents a further 55% fall in today's prices. 'Post crisis we will likely end the positive uptrend that began in the 1930s, and enter a period of zero or negative GDP growth furthermore' - to paraphrase Klaus Schwab (Founder/CEO of World Economic Forum). This is the end of abundance and fractional reserve banking and all the exponential growth the twentieth century has become accustom to.
TVC:SPXShort
by platinum_growth
2
S&P 500 Short Call @$4,211The opportunity at the present time is to take very measured, very controlled shots to the downside right now. AAPL will get hit this next move. AAPL is down -9% YTD. They've taken out all the generals except Apple . And Apple's in everything. It has been a blistering rally with one-sided trade in the S&P's. There are some phenomenon opportunities opening up in the broader marketplace. It feels like a new bull market right now. Was that a bottom? I don't think so. Gravity Point on deck at $4,211; a pivotal level with huge open-interest. The upper edge of this week's expected move also coincides with $4,211. #Confluence Declining volume Unemployment is still relatively low. Employment situation comes out this Friday. If unemployment remains low, the Fed is going to be significantly more aggressive with rate hikes to curb inflation . The stronger the economy gets, the heavier the hand from the Fed. Don't fight the Fed. Inflation data will remain sticky. Fed 75 bpt hike next month. Jobs data is likely to worsen next. And if it doesn't... more reason for the Fed to hike. Shallow recession in the U.S. Europe will run out of energy this winter. The Euro is approaching free-fall, fueling inflation in Europe. This will further interrupt supply chains causing a new supply chain shock. They will eventually turn back to coal. Globalization is over, and inflation has increased meaningfully as a result. We're in a bear market, you need to be defensive. How can you be defensive when bonds aren't working? Close short @ $3,931, where we were only 3 weeks ago.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RHTrading
1