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Relevant level on StarbucksToday, we will share the current situation we observe on SBUX. Let's start: After making a new ATH from December 2020, we observed a continuation of that bullish movement until July 2021. From there, the price has been correcting. Currently, it's on a 17.82% decline (175 days) The shape of the correction can be categorized into a flag pattern here; you can see a template on what I mean by this. Based on this, you can see that when we cloned the main descending trendline on the lower zone of the structure, we can create a level to pay attention to. That level converges with the previous resistance zone on the top of Jul 2019 then mutate to work as a support level. Alright, the conclusion here is: the zone between 98.00 and 100.00 may be a relevant bouncing level. This may be useful for short-term traders, scalpers, etc... As my main style is swing trading, this is not a situation where I can start developing setups; however, it's a place worth paying attention to from a technical perspective. IN case the price breaks that level without problem, we should start looking for other zones below that may become supports (for example, 94.00) Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:SBUX
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
Buy the bounce on the EMA 50Since february 2020 a green candle has been seen round 16 times on the top of the EMA50. For 13 times out of 16 SPY took +2.62% in the next 5 days. Sometimes much more on a longer period. In order to trade this pattern the best is to buy at the closing, and to put a close stop loss (something round 0.3%...). This kind of stop loss worked 12 times out of 13... The Risk/Reward is here very high.... I put a 4x leverage, and I bought IBUS500 at 4711 (stop-loss round 4697 (= -0.36%) ). Yesterday SPY bounced on the support, it was also a good idea to play it. Hope you done it. For the Nasdaq100 it widely crossed the support, and then came back. The best option was to wait the bounce, in order to avoid this whipsaw. Some bulls has been caught by their stop-loss. Hope you like this idea, I would be happy to talk about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Nicolas_Pradel
4
Trading plan on BYND for 2022. This is what I want to see. The main level I'm interested in is the support at 50.00. If the price reaches that level, I will start thinking about bullish opportunities. Let's assume that happens. The pattern I want to see is: First: breakout of the current descending trendline Second: a corrective movement with similar proportions to the red line you can see on the chart IF all that happens, I will develop setups towards the next relevant level at 160.00. The horizontal yellow line you can see on the chart is a price level I will use to move my stop loss to break even because it may work as a reversal zone. This setup may become available between 30 to 60 days. In the meantime, it's important to have patience and avoid getting involved with low-quality scenarios. Thanks for reading, and feel free to share your view on the comments ;)
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NASDAQ:BYND
by ThinkingAntsOk
30
Relevant levels on DKNG and trading opportunityToday we will take a look at DKNG. The first thing to mention is that the price has reached a significant level composed of a support and a cloned trendline of the current descending movement or corrective movement. From here, we can see an inner descending trendline inside the correction (yellow line). That trendline is really important to provide us with information about a possible change in trend. The main thing I'm looking for before confirming a change in trend is the next sequence. -Breakout of the yellow trendline -After that, I want to see a correction with similar proportions as the red line I draw. That's the main trading opportunity towards the bullish target IF that correction happens, developing setups on its breakout may be a good setup with a risk to reward ratio higher than 2. However, at the moment, that's far from happening. The last element of this analysis is: What happens if the price keeps falling? Then we should pay attention to the next support level at 11.00 as a possible target. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
NASDAQ:DKNG
by ThinkingAntsOk
Current setup on IBKR | Full explanation Let's take a look at IBKR and the current setup I'm waiting for. As you can see on the chart, I have defined all those situations with one thing in common, massive drawdown in terms of time and decline and the subsequent resolution after we have a new all-time-high (ATH). First Scenario: 65% decline and 2660 days until a new ATH / Followed by a 27% bullish movement from the previous high. Second Scenario: 35% decline and 826 days until a new ATH / Followed by a 75% bullish movement from the previous high. Third Scenario (current situation): 57% decline and 1316 until a new ATH / Followed by ???? The idea I have right now is that I'm expecting a similar resolution of the previous 2 scenarios based on past behavior. Am I saying this will happen? Of course not; my win rate is 50%; however, the risk to reward ratio I'm looking at on this setup is 2.5. In other words: for every dollar I'm risking, I'm aiming to make 2.5 dollars. Alright, let's speak about the trading template: The pattern I observed in all the previous bull runs goes like this: a) The price makes a new ATH b) The price makes a 7 days consolidation c) Entry above the consolidation, stop below, target at 255% movement from the previous high (i want to be conservative) d) IF everything goes as expected, the expected time for this resolution is between 50 to 100 days. To be clear, these are the levels I'm using: ENTRY: 81.30 STOP: 73.85 TAKE PROFIT: 99.99 BREAK-EVEN: 89.00 (I will move my stop loss to the entry-level) Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your charts or view in the comments.
NASDAQ:IBKRLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
All the relevant levels on COIN and trading opportunities. Today, we will take a look at COIN Which are the main elements we can see? 1) The price has already reached the major support zone (or bearish target) and has bounced there. 2) So, what would be a good scenario to think about in terms of bullish opportunities? 3) I would like to see the breakout of the current bearish trend (yellow line) and then a corrective pattern with similar proportions to the red line you see on the chart. 4) IF that happens, then I think that's a great scenario to develop setups around that correction. IF that doesn't happen, you don't do anything. 5) The target I have for the bullish movement in case all the previous filters are fulfilled is 360 6) There is a level where we should pay attention to 294.00 (there we can see small reactions or reversal movements) At the moment, we have defined the plan, and we need to see how the price proceeds to create a more accurate scenario. Thanks for reading, and feel free to share your view in the comments.
NASDAQ:COIN
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
KHC is the 5th holding of Berkshire. What can we expect? Today we will look at Kraft Heinz, a stock in the top 5 holdings of Berkshire Hathaway, that has not been performing yet with stellar results, but that may change, or not... So first, let's look at some conclusions from a technical perspective. -From 2017 to 2019, the price was clearly on a bearish trend, defined for the most external trendline (white line) -From 2019 until the beginning of 2021, we observed a consolidation period where the price moved sideways between 37.00 and 27.00 -From 2021 until now, we observed the beginning of a slightly bullish trend and the first breakout of the bearish trendline -Now, we can see a corrective pattern on the edge of the previous trend (this type of behavior is typical to see when the price is about to break a key level (trendlines, or support/resistance. We will tend to observe any type of corrective patterns. Ok, what now? What's your view? I have defined activation, invalidation levels, and targets based on all the previous elements. IF the price reaches the green horizontal line, I will consider that my analysis is active, and I will think it is no longer valid if the price reaches the red horizontal line. The target for this movement is 64.00 (on the next resistance level), which means a 60% increase from the activation level. Regarding time , I think a movement like this will need around a year to happen (if it happens, of course...) What if the price never reaches the activation level and keeps falling? Then I will cancel my view. Are you trading this with your personal account? No, I'm not taking this setup. However, I find it an interesting chart, from a technical perspective and under the idea that it is the number 5 holding of Berkshire Hathaway. Thanks for reading; feel free to share your view in the comments.
NASDAQ:KHC
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Retest after the breakout on Berkshire.Today we will take a look at Berkshire Hathaway's price action . On this chart, we can see two major technical elements. 1) The current ascending trendline started at the bottom of the pandemic sell-off. While the price stays above that line, we should be open to bullish movements coming. 2) The current consolidation. Those structures are great situations to look for the beginning of new impulses. Berkshire has been moving sideways for the last 280 days, and a few days ago, we saw a new ATH, and now the restest is happening. That's why I have defined an activation level. IF the price makes a new ATH, I expect a bullish movement towards the fibo extensions. An invalidation level in case that happens is below the current correction around 268.77 In case everything goes as planned, my estimate is a 150 days movement towards the target. IF the activation level is never reached because the price keeps falling, then that's great "your order, or view" was never executed, and you stayed on the sideway. However, if the price reaches the activation level and goes below the corrective structure, that's why you use a stop loss, and you need to securely leave the market, paying your stop loss (which is never higher than 3% of my trading capital) Thanks for reading, feel free to share your view and charts in the comments!
NYSE:BRK.B
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Trading template for LYB | Full explanationToday, we will take a look at LYB . We can see the price has been moving inside a correction for the last 195 days, and the structure is clear enough to understand its more external limits. The way I thought this scenario was like this. How many times in the past were similar situations like the current one, and the next question is can I observe a pattern so I can trade? The answer is: This has happened several times in the past, and yes, there is a clear pattern that I can wait for. Let me show you: The explanation here is: First we need a big structure (which we already have), then we want to see a breakout followed by a 15 days correction) IF that happens, we want to see the first breakout of that followed by a candlestick below that breakout movement, and at that moment, we set bullish pending orders on the new local high with the stop loss on the previous low. The expected risk to reward ratio on this is 2.5, and based on the previous examples, we had 2 profits and 1 break-even. What happens if the filter is never fulfilled?: We don't trade ;) What happens if the filter is fulfilled, your setup is executed, and then the price goes directly to the stop loss:? I lose 3% of my trading capital, and I keep executing as emotionless as possible :D It's important to show that by doing this, I can eliminate all the emotions from this execution, and by doing that, I can follow my plan without changing things on my strategy. One of the main reasons people are not able to achieve consistency is not because they don't have a good system but because they are not able to follow it (trading psychology) Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view and thoughts in the comments.
NYSE:LYB
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Bullish perspective on AMZN | My current setup. Today we will speak about AMZN, the bullish view, and my current setup. If I have to define my trading style, I will describe it as a swing breakout trader. A basic explanation on the way I trade would be described like this "Impulses tend to come from consolidations, so if I'm able to identify formed consolidations on an advance stage, I can start thinking in setups around the breakout on those early signs that a new impulse may be starting. Like any trading strategy, sometimes I'm right, others I'm wrong (i would describe this as 50% of the time), and the standard deviation on the wrong side can be around seven consecutive stop losses. And the last detail you need to understand in this style is the average risk to reward ratio (2) With all that said, let's take a look at AMZN: The price has been moving sideways for 469 days, On a compressive triangle pattern. We have observed 2 breakouts attempts without observing the real impulse yet. Based on previous situations where we can see the price moving similarly, the sequence I have observed is breakout followed by a correction followed by the new impulse coming. Currently, we are observing clear similarities with the previous correction in terms of formation size and time. That's why based on statistics; I'm beating on the repetition of this situation; in the next picture, you can see my current setup that was executed on the breakout of the retest (big structure) I'm currently risking 3% of my trading capital on the stop-loss. The idea is clear IF the price goes below 3160, I'm out of the trade; if that doesn't happen, I will keep holding my setup until I see the price on 4822 / Final risk to reward ratio: 3 Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your review in the comments.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Relevant levels and possible directions on META Today we will take a look at META. What are the main technical elements we can see? - We can see two clear impulses and two clear corrections. The first correction was an ABCDE triangle pattern. And the current correction is an ABC zig-zag pattern (for now) - Understanding corrective structures is crucial to have clarity when a correction is finished or when I should keep waiting for it. In this situation, the ABC pattern is completed. So it's interesting to start thinking about possible directions the price may take. -We have defined two possible paths the price can take; let's understand each of them. * In the first scenario, the price reaches the correction´s descending trendline and cannot break it from there. We see a bearish movement towards the previous support level at around 300.00 * The second scenario, the price breaks the correction and goes above the broken ascending trendline again. After that, we observe a retest of it and a bullish continuation towards the previous ATH. Of course, it's impossible to say what will happen; however, I would be interested in the bullish scenario to develop setups around that retest. Otherwise, I'm not interested in trading here. -The main concept of this post is to define relevant levels that traders may use depending on their style. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view and chart in the comments!
NASDAQ:META
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Retest after breakout | AMAT Today we will take a look at AMAT. What are the main technical elements can we see here? - First, we have the 200 days main structure that the price broke on November - After the breakout, we observed a retest (typical behavior after a structure of this size are broken) - Now, we are ready to define a level where I will consider that this chart configuration has upside potential towards the 2nd fibo extension or the higher trendline of the channel. - IF the price makes a new ATH, I will consider that confirmation for the bullish view. Invalidation level will be below the retest - IF everything goes as expected, I think we may see a movement with a duration of 100 to 150 days towards the target. What are the odds of this view being right? I would say between 45% to 50%. Are you trading this setup? No, I'm not trading this setup; currently, I'm exposed to the max amount of open positions my system allows me. However, I think this is a solid scenario from a technical perspective; the expected risk to reward ratio is about 2. As I mentioned before, the odds of this movement happening based on this type of formation are between 45% to 50%. (All you need to create an edge on the market) What happens if the price never reaches the activation level and keeps falling? You simply cancel your view. What happens if the prices reach the entry-level and then go straight to my stop loss? You simply absorb a stop. That's why it is essential to manage risk and define a % on each setup you will take; my risk management goes between 1% to 3%. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your chars and view them in the comments.
NASDAQ:AMAT
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
MELI | Breakout or Bounce?MELI, Breakout or bounce? Today we will take a look at the Latin American e-commerce platform "Mercado Libre." Currently, the price is on a relevant level to pay attention to; it's a zone where we have a support level and the cloned trendline of the current correction. As this is a major zone, we can start thinking about the bullish or bearish resolution from here. IF the price breaks the current zone, the next support level is likely to be the bearish target of the movement, around 970. However, if the price can bounce from here, we can expect a bullish movement towards the descending trendline at 1550. I want to see the price breaking the descending trendline (yellow) to consider bullish opportunities. EXAMPLE Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your view and charts in the comments.
NASDAQ:MELI
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Some ideas on the most significant drop in PYPL history.PYPL is on my trading watchlist because, as a growth stock, it has been in a corrective situation for a reasonable amount of time, 284 days to be exact, from February 16, 2021. When we have this type of consolidation, it is easy to look at the past and ask a simple question. How many times did a similar situation like the current one has happened? As you can see, there are 3 situations, including this one, that we can compare and understand to look for a good spot to develop setups with a goods ods as evolving as expected + High risk to reward ratio. Let's check all of them. AUG2015 - APR2017 JUL2019 - MAY2020 FEB2021 - YTD I don't have a final idea of what I want to trade here. However, I'm certain I will not develop any bullish setup below the current descending trendline. Once the price gets close to it, I will develop the specific filter I'm waiting for. Based on past behavior, if I see a breakout of the descending trendline + a clear filter (not defined yet), I think it is a good opportunity to look for setups with a target on the previous high and beyond. That would mean R/R ratios above 5 or 6 (if we can catch that), and at the same time, we can absorb multiple stop loss, and even if we get it right on the 4th attempt; we still are able to make profits. Feel free to add any ideas or thoughts about this in the comments! Thanks for reading.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
All the relevant levels and directions in PYPL Today we will take a look at Paypal ; let's start with the main technical elements we can see: First: The support and resistance levels. Currently, the price is against a major support zone working since the beginning of the year. From here, we have defined the next support level and the next resistance zone. Both will be working as primary targets, either for bullish or bearish resolutions. Regarding the bullish view, we have two descending trendlines we should pay attention to. Based on previous behavior, we can expect corrections during the ascending movement. Either on the first one or the second one. The cleanest setup based on a technical perspective would be to wait for contact on the 2nd trendline and see a clear correction. IF that happens, then we can trade towards the Next resistance zone (previous ATH level) Regarding the bearish view, we are NOT taking short setups on stocks. However, the scenario we think would be a clear confirmation of the bearish view would be: -Bearish breakout of the support level - Pullback on the broken support level - A new local low after the pullback would be the confirmation of the bearish movement towards the next support zone (180.00) Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view and charts in the comment box.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by ThinkingAntsOk
6
We still waiting for a new bullish impulse on AMZNWe still waiting for a new bullish impulse on AMZN. Today we will take a look at the AMZN chart and a pending setup we have. The key concepts of this chart are: - The price has been moving in a range for 300 days until we saw the new ATH - Our main concept was: How many times can we look at situations in the past that the price stayed more than 300 days moving on a range and the resolution after that - Based on that, we have defined the setup you can see right now as the best option to develop positions in the current situation. It's important to say that we have found moments where the setup was executed, we have a stop loss, and then the price continues in the direction. That's why we are ready to develop 2 setups if necessary. - Now, we have a flag pattern on the edge of the range, and we are using Fibo extensions to define the targets of this movement. The fibo extensions are drawn based on the previous impulse (March 2020 - August 2020) - On a setup like this, we will be risking 2% of the capital, looking to make 4.5%+ as a return. - The expected time for a resolution like this is between 2 to 5 months. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
ATVI, Can we expect a short-term bullish impulse? Today we will take a look at ATVI: a) Since February 2021, the price has been on a correction or a bearish trend (depending on how you want to see it), dropping 30%. b) The price has bounced on a support level, where we can be open to the idea of a new short-term bullish movement. IF the following items happen as expected (70.00 / 72.00) c) Another important detail is the corrective pattern on the edge of the broken descending trendline d) Alright, our bullish thesis goes like this: IF the price reaches the green horizontal line, we will consider it confirmation for the bullish movement towards the first target at 87.50. Eventually, we may see a second target at the descending trendline of 91.90 / It's important to be open to possible retracements or reversions. e) Our invalidation levels are below the corrective structure (yellow lines) either if the price reaches our activation line first or if the price keeps falling from where it is right now. f) The expected duration for a movement like this goes between 45 to 60 days. Thanks for reading, don't hesitate to ask any questions in the comments or share your view about this stock.
NASDAQ:ATVI
by ThinkingAntsOk
3