Southern To Drop And Then RiseOn March 31, 2017 The Southern Company ( NYSE:SO ) crossed above its 150 day for the second time in 26 trading days. Historically this has occurred 222 times and the stock does not always rise. It has a median gain of 2.717 % and maximum gain of 14.698 % over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 47.3590. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly heading down, but not in a strong manner.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 10.2015. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is up, however, it is begun to retreat from higher levels.
Both vortex indicators (VI) are below 1 with the positive value slightly on top of the negative. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral and could begin to climb within a week.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 19.2587 and D value is 27.6028. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is trending down with narrowing divergence between the K and D values which means the drop is almost over.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be downward for a few days before heading up. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 1% over the next five days and gain 2.5% from that point which is roughly 1.59% from its current level. The stock has crossed below the 150 day MA three times over the past three weeks for a drop of at least 1%. The median drop when this occurs is 1.869%. The last cross below was only two days ago and has not completed its 1% drop yet. I believe the stock will fall near the 49.30 level before moving up toward 50.57.
