BTC/USD - $81K or $37K?The road to a new ATH or a drop back within its Upwards Channel? Interesting times.
4hr chart
Vpvr
ETH/USD - Ascending Triangle and a Double TopETH/USD is in an Ascending Triangle Pattern. We also have what could be a Double Top as well.
Ascending Triangle Pattern = Potentially Bullish
Double Top = Potentially Bearish
Here is a closer look at this 1day chart. Note the Liquidity Void being filled up at the moment.
Here is a closer look at the RSI. Momentum is downwards at the moment but note the over extension of the RSI on the attached Bollinger Bands.
There could be interesting times ahead.
BTC - RSI Hidden Bullish DivergenceWe have what looks like Hidden Bullish Divergence with the Price and the RSI indictor on this BTC/USD 1D chart.
We can also see that we have 2 liquidity voids that need filling up so a further drop is also a possibility.
SPX weak move poised for a return to the VPVR Point of ControlIntroduction
The recent uptrend in equities has been called a “hated rally” by several financial news organizations (www.afr.com) and lots of people are “sitting on their hands” for this uptrend. That type of behavior seems ripe for people to try and sell the local high and buy lower down.
The monthly ADX has remained very low. When the ADX goes from below 20 to the middle zone it is a sign that the volatility and move may proceed in a more sustained manner and when the ADX is above 40 that is a technical sign that there will be a sustained uptrend. A move from above 40 to below 40 is a sign the move is running out of steam.
Likewise, the Average True range has been falling during this uptrend. The ATR measures price volatility and this falling volatility combined with a increase in price is broadly bearish. The black arrow on the chart shows that just prior to SPX’s all time high the ATR was falling. The ATR falling again suggest a similar reversal and a new local low.
The green arrow also shows some divergence on the ATR. The ATR is good for both regular and hidden divergences so the fact that SPX shows both is a stronger suggestion that this uptrend will reverse.
One simple targeting stratify is to assume that price will pull back to the Point of Control at the VPVR. When using the Volume Profile Visible Range it is important to have a defendable starting point and I have set the screen to see the price action since the bottom of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. I find that to be a very defendable place to see the volume by price action. Recall, most volume charts show volume by session wile the VPVR shows volume by price over a specific date range. I have my VPVR defauls set to 68 so I get a close as possible to seeing 1 standard deviation of volume area and I set the number of rows to 147 simply because that gives me 100 rows in the value area.
We can see from the main chart that there was a lot of resistance the Point of Control (price where most trading happened) there between 2014 and 2016 and the C19 dump retested that level. In uptrends price has a tendency to be above the value area and correct to it as support and in downtrends price is below the value area/point of control and tends to rally to it and then reverse.
In the long run price returning to the Point of Control might set up a head and shoulders but that is a problem for a later time. The quarterly chart below shows that the price target of 2099 puts the price between the 2.0 and 2.618 Fib extension ratios. That is about the max target we could expect from a ABC correction based off a strong understanding of Elliot Wave theory.
Elliot Wave Resource
forex-indicators.net pg 45
Figure 4-8 Figure 4-9
In a regular flat correction, waves A, B and C are, of course, approximately equal, as shown in Figure 4-10.
In an expanded flat correction, wave C is often 1.618 times the length of wave A. Sometimes wave C will terminate beyond the end of wave A by .618 times the length of wave A. Both of these tendencies are illustrated in Figure 4-11. In rare cases, wave C is 2.618 times the length of wave A. Wave B in an expanded flat is sometimes 1.236 or 1.382 times the length of wave A
Conclusion
I am going to remain on the sidelines of the equities market until I see some bullish divergence on indicators on the weekly or monthly time frames. I have a nagging assumption that as the equities markets top that the broader crypto market will have a last hurrah for 2-3 years and that will begin its drawdown.
Bitcoins Next Price TargetBitcoins next price target, before some more meaningful resistance, is likely to be in the range of 35.7k - 36.8k.
Their is confluence of fib levels in this range. The 0.382 fib level measured from the all time high to the bear market low, and the golden pocket level (0.618 - 0.65 fib level) measured from the next macro high during the bear market to the bear market low.
We also see a bigger spike on the VPVR (Volume Profile) becoming active at this target. More volume was previously traded at this target level and these areas on the VPVR can act as support or resistance levels. This level is marked out with the white dotted line and it lines up with the 0.382 fib and the 0.618 fib.
We can also do an AB = CD pattern to calculate a measured move. This is useful when a move is made to the upside (in this case) and then corrects back to the 0.5 Fib (corrects 50% of that initial move). The measured move is then the same length as that initial move to the upside but starting at that 0.5 FIb level.
This is shown with the initial move being from 19.6k - 31k (first white dotted line). We then corrected back to 24.8k (50% of the initial move). The measured move from 24.8k (second white dotted line) is the same length as the initial move giving us a target of 36.3k. This is in line with those fib levels and the spike on the VPVR.
When their is confluence among different indicators it increases the likely hood of being a key level.
BTC 30m forming Double Top on VPVR POC and Trend WavesDouble Top is a bearish formation. In this case, it's being formed on the Point Of Control (POC) as a neckline, the strongest support/resistance on Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR), which shows what price bulls and bears fought the most.
If this formation breaks the neckline, the potential target price is exactly 26000.
We can predict the potential target by measuring the higher Top to the neckline and transferring it below it. As you can see, a gap in VPVR will enable this price drop if the neckline breaks down.
We also have a double top on the waves at the bottom to support this formation, meaning the trend waves, strength, and candles tell the same story.
Keep in mind low volume and possible manipulation in every decision you make in the low-volume market.
VET/USD - My Longterm PlanVeChain update with my opinions and what i plan to do if my opinions are correct:
Here is a closer look at the 1 day VET/USD chart:
While VET did have a nice move up from $0.0152 to $0.032, that impetus is gone and VET is now making Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
Notes:
VET is still in its Descending Channel Pattern.
VET is back in the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud.
VET is under both its 50MA and 200MA levels.
The 50MA has crossed back under the 200MA on this 1 day timeframe.
If we look at the volume for VET/USD, it’s been very low since around July 2021 and has not really recovered.
On this chart, i have added various Support and Resistance Lines as well as Areas of Interest as highlighted with the Black Dotted Lines with Yellow Shading.
If we look at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF Indicator), we can see that the MF Line is still very near its 0.00 Base Line, a cross below the 0.00 Base Line will take VET into Distribution on this 1 day Timeframe. Note the the MF Line is still below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) Line.
My longterm Hodl plan for VET/USD:
I still believe we will see $0.0096 to $0.0084 especially when the USA finally admits publicly that it is in a Recession, which when it does, will mean it’ll actually be in a Depression. So if this recession plan follows through then i will be looking to buy in around $0.0096 to $0.0084 and longterm hold until it reaches back to the ATH of around $0.28 and then re-asses the situation. A successful Daily Candle close below $0.0152 will be my first confirmation that we may see below $0.01.
With the potential oncoming of this world depression, if the only way out for the US is to start WW3 to counter BRICS, the loss of the Petro Dollar, the loss of sanction power and the growing +$32T of debt then i believe we could see $0.0057 to $0.0043.
When the oncoming recession/depression pivots and the new Bull-Run starts, after a while, keep an eye out for when the Mainstream Media starts broadcasting to the public about huge Crypto Gains! When this happens you’ll suddenly have random family and friends who now want to jump into crypto because it has gone up 1000s of %! This will be the time to consider taking profit on any long term hold as all the newbies jumping on the band wagon will be providing EXIT LIQUIDITY to those who got in at a really low price. Once this happens, then the market makers will change direction and become Bearish as Bulls and Bears are the same people I.E they are the Market Makers. I have seen this happen twice now with the Crypto market, once in 2017 and another in 2021.
As always, we must keep an eye on what BTC/USD is doing.
Anyway, this is all just my opinion and i have other strategies in place for if we don’t see sub $0.01 again.
I hope this post is helpful.
BTC 1D Head and Shoulders formedI tried to explain this the other day, but I made a mess, being tired and sleep deprived.
First, I noticed the H&S forming on the 1W timeframe, shown by VWAP.
Although it's an intraday indicator, I also leave it on bigger timeframes for this purpose. It showed a pattern IN the candles.
I tried at that point to draw it on 1D, but the pattern wasn't so obvious, so I did it on 2D, where it was more pronounced.
When I published the idea, I left the 1D chart on and started talking about 2h instead of 2D.
But, If you look at that idea now, You will see that the pattern is fully formed and clearly visible on 1D.
The idea from the other day is linked below.
Targets remain the same.
If the 27k resistance doesn't hold, we have a hole on VPVR down to 25k, and the full potential of the pattern corresponds with the bottom of the 23k-25k range.
On my trend waves indicator at the bottom, the ribbon turned bearish (purple), the selling aggression is intense (grey wave), and Binance has problems with withdrawals...
If we don't get rejected at 27k, which is possible, judging by the smaller timeframes, we could have quite a pullback.
BTC 1h Ascending Channel breakdown confirmedThe price of BTC broke down from a bullish ascending channel.
Right now, it has a VPVR resistance at the 28550-28450 level range, which, if broken, leaves the price without significant resistance until 28000.
Trend waves are exhausted at the one-hour timeframe on my indicator at the bottom, so rejection is possible at this point, but the four-hour time frame is coming down strongly.
I'll call this neutral because depending on your trading style can be both bullish and bearish.
You know I'm looking for long-term shorts. But as always, I am aware of the trend. You should be too. 😊
BTC 1W hidden Head and Shoulders pattern shown on 2h Looking at the weekly chart, I noticed a clear H&S pattern on VWAP. VWAP is an intraday indicator, but it can show a pattern in larger frames, like now.
I was trying to find a way to draw and measure it clearly on commonly used timeframes, but it is most apparent on a 2h chart.
As you can see on VPVR on the right, the neckline is below the 27100 resistance, and if it breaks it, there is a gap down to 25100. But the full potential of the pattern targets 23100.
On my trend wave indicator, the weekly trend reached a local top on the 17th and turned bearish at the +60 line. Right now, it is right above the +50 line.
That area often acts as support and resistance. And here on 2h, the trend is reversing right above the zero line, which is also strong support.
Still, since this timeframe is not usual, this could also mean that trend is being rejected from it.
The chart is bearish. Volume is low.
But the price is what it is. Trade with the trend. But it doesn't hurt to be prepared. Right?
BTC/USDHere is a closer look at this chart.
BTC needs to turn the key Resistance area located around $32,157 - $28,682 into strong support.
That’s it, quick n dirty. I hope this chart is helpful.
BTC/USD Monthly Chart - Volume POC AnalysisBTC/USD Volume Analysis - Bitstamp 1 month chart.
BTC is still in a massive Ichimoku Y-Wave Pattern, which is like a western Broadening Wedge Pattern.
BTC is also in a massive Ichimoku P-Wave Pattern, which is like a western Symmetrical Triangle or Pennant.
BTC is also in a massive Rising Wedge Pattern.
I have also added in various Support and Resistance lines on this chart as highlighted by the thin dotted straight white lines.
Here is a closer look at this Bitstamp monthly chart:
At the moment of typing this, BTC is still being hampered by its Key Resistance Area located with the dotted straight white lines with yellow shading.
Note that on the month of 1st Feb 2023, BTC broke out of its Falling Wedge Pattern and successfully re-tested it as support, 1st on the month staring 1st Feb 2023 and 2nd on the month starting 1st Mar 2023.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands we can see that the price is still under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this month chart. Note that the Lower Band has started to curve back around straight.
I have added a few FRVP (Fixed Range Volume Profile) indicators to every group of 3 one month candles on this visible chart, you can clearly see the various Points of Control (POC) for all those 3x one month candles which are indicated by the straight white line on each 3 month FRVP indicators. Looking at the month starting 1st Feb 2021, we can see that our Point of Control (POC) for those 3x one month candles is located at our UPPER Resistance/Support line of our Key Area of Resistance. If we look at the month starting 1st May 2022, we can see that our Point of Control (POC) for those 3x one month candles is located at out LOWER Resistance/Support line of our Key Area of Resistance.
Looking at the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), we can see where the Point of Control (POC) is for this charts Visible Range as highlighted by the Dashed straight white line.
Looking at the Volume on this Bitstamp 1 month chart, we can see that this month’s Volume Bar ended above its 20 Period Moving Average.
If we take a look at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the Red Histograms have consistently degreased in size since Sept 2022. The MACD Line (Blue Line) is indicating momentum is upwards and the MACD Line looks very likely to cross back ABOVE the Signal Line (Orange Line) on this monthly chart. If/when the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back above the Signal Line (Orange Line) it will create a new Green Histograms and a buy signal on this monthly chart for this indicator. When that happens it will be the first new Green Histogram since the month of 1st Dec 2021.
Looking at the Up/Down Volume Indicator for this Bitstamp chart, we can see the difference between the buyers and sellers as indicated by the Delta Line in the Volume Bars. Note that this useful indicator takes into account the whole Candle Wick so the full Open and Close price and not just the Body of the Candle.
If we take a look at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength hasn’t turned upwards yet with the ADX (Yellow Line) at 21.11 and note the DAX Line is still under its 9 Period EMA (White Line) which is at 26.34. Positive Momentum is sideways at the moment with the +DI (Green Line) at 22.05 and Negative Momentum is also sideways at the moment with the -DI (Red Line) at 19.06. A good sign to look out for on this indicator is when the ADX (Yellow Line) starts moving upwards and an eventually cross back ABOVE its 9 Period EMA (White Line) as well as an upwards trajectory for the +DI (Green Line) and a downwards trajectory for the -DI (Red Line) diverging apart form each other on this 1 month chart.
As stated in my previous BTC post, the Price needs to successfully CLOSE ABOVE its Key Resistance Area and turn that area into Strong Support. So it seems there might be very interesting times ahead for BTC and the whole Crypto market, especially if we get a Buy Signal on the MACD Indicator if/when the MACD Line (Blue Line) crossing back ABOVE the Signal Line (Orange Line) on this 1 month chart.
I hope this post is helpful.
BTC 1h Inverse Cup and Handle breaking last month's VPVR POCInversed Cup and Handle is a very strong bearish reversal pattern. I should have noticed earlier, but I do my own analysis and was looking for something else while this cup was being spilled in my lap.
Why am I posting this late, then?
Well, there is one crucial thing left on this chart. And that is that this pattern has a target price target of 27600, which is below the POC (Point Of Control) on VPVR in the last month, and it is currently retesting it after a breakout.
VPVR POC shows the line of the most significant volume per price level based on the candles shown on the chart at any given moment, which means that it is the most substantial S/R level in this indicator. And as you can see, there is quite a gap below 28k.
So if this pattern breaks POC without significant volume from the bulls, we could retest the 25k level, where the next serious resistance is.
BTC 15m Fibonacci Channel and VPVR Support and ResistanceIn this chart, I used Fibonacci Channel and VPVR to show the current trend's confluence between support and resistance levels. This is the current playground.
I will not be overexplaining since this is only an observation.
BTC 15m Bear Flag without VPVR ResistanceWe have a school example of the bear flag formed on under-hour timeframes, and it targets the price of 28300, which perfectly fills the gap in historic volume shown on the VPVR on the right.
BTC 15m Head and Shoulders with neckline on VWAPHead and Shoulders fully formed in 15 min timeframe. Neckline is a VWAP that is being broken and retested at the moment. The target price of the formed pattern is below 28650, which is the beginning of a VPVR gap on the right. Fibonacci 1.618 regression support is at 28300, a target price of the bear flag I posted about yesterday. You can see it in the link below.
BTC 15m Head and Shoulders and 1H Double Top on the Trend WavesWe can use candle patterns on the oscillators too. On 1h my waves oscillator, we have a double top, ideally rejected from the 70 lines, and it broke down the neckline.
A pullback in strength could go below a zero line. In that case, aggression (grey wave) would be rejected in the area of -50 to -70.
The head and shoulders pattern formed on a 15m timeframe, and it retests the neckline at the moment of writing this, with a possible drop to 30300 right through the hole on VPVR on the right.
Again, the fact that I remain bearish should not change the fact that trading against the trend is a big NO-NO.
1W BTC Candlestick and Wave AnalysisI continue to be bearish and, by all my logic and knowledge, think that this market has been heavily manipulated since the Genesis bankruptcy.
Just think about it. The moment when the biggest crypto lender needs to liquidate their assets, the price goes up.
Also, if you follow the social metric, you know that creators of the crypto content are struggling to get new views.
And then, we have Elon changing the Twitter logo and pumping the DOGE, and the last time he did it, he pumped and dumped it for a BTC, which no one seems to remember or even realize.
But let's bring some chart analysis into it.
We first need to consider a gap in the VPVR on the right.
This is the chart of almost a year's worth of weekly candles, and that gap means that the price shot up without significant volume to create support anywhere above 25k.
Next, we have three weeks of consolidation, shown by long-legged Doji and two spinning top candle patterns.
The last week was bullish. It retested the upper Bollinger band, and as we can see, this one is bearish, which means it got rejected, but keep in mind this one has yet to close.
Last but not least, we can see a ribbon closing to a reversal on the ribbon in the waves indicator.
If you reduce the timeframe to 5D, it has already painted the local top.
Supported by the fact that the grey wave, which indicates the aggression or the speed of trading if you like, is approaching the zero line, which means the trend is reversed from bullish to bearish, excluding the fact that everything in me screams: "BUY," I will not do it.
I cannot predict the manipulation though I can see it and react to it thanks to my indicator, so my conclusion is: "Do your homework. This one is mine."
VET/USDVET/USD very quick update.
Here is a closer look at this VET/USD 1 day chart:
VeChain is in a new smaller Descending Channel which is in a massive Descending Channel. VeChain is also in a massive Symmetrical Triangle.
At the moment of typing this, VeChain is still in the Bullish Zone above its Ichimoku Cloud.
At the moment of typing this, VeChain is still above its 200MA. Note that the 50MA is still traveling upwards so we may eventually see the 50MA cross above the 200MA on this 1 day chart.
Not that overall traded volume is still very low compared to what we were getting from 2018 to 2021.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is dropping with the ADX (Orange Line) at 36.08 and under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 39.52. Positive Momentum has dropped with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 19.73. Negative momentum has also dropped a little with the -DI (Red Line) slightly dropping to 15.87 on this 1 day chart.
I hope this very quick update is helpful.
vpvr and support and resistant very important for btc $BTC Is a bitcoin dump imminent? US government moves $1 billion worth of confiscated bitcoin from Silk Road to Coinbase/
BTC/USDIf inflation will stay put and BTC price will break 200MA, the price can easily go to 28k according to VPVR.
Of course this is short term movement and I'm not passionate about making trades, only investing.
This is not best time for accumulation for me. I accumulated much lower and I'll be interested unde 20k to accumulate more.
Please check my indicators and the other charts.
Do you own BTC?
When are going to DCA? Do you have a strategy and a plan>
Bearish seahorse transforming into a dragon
This is a sequel to my previous idea .
As we predicted, BTC substantially formed a bearish seahorse pattern, which induced a sharp drop already matching a roughly 1.5 BC extension from point D.
I expect a bearish dragon follows next.
The target is 0.786 retracement from the top to the "tail" (point X) of the sea horse, which is approximately the 21200-21250 zone where we would see a confluence with POC.
