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S&P 500 Index. Is it time to short?On the weekly chart, there was a sideways movement from May 2022 to June 2023. It had a breakout with an upward trend (two impulses). The price returned to this sideways range six weeks ago. For the past four weeks, it has been hovering near the upper boundary of the sideways range, unable to close any weekly candles above it. There's a high probability that the price will test the lower boundary of the range at 3636. I made this note a week ago; it's time to update the forecast. On the weekly chart, there are two seller candles on increased volume, which created a seller interest zone with the lower boundary at 4204.3. The most recent weekly candle closed within the historical weekly buyer interest zone with the upper boundary at 4141.8 (historical zones typically don't result in strong reversals). It is possible that the buyer will return from the zone and test the current seller’s zone with the lower border of 4204.3. On the daily chart, the price broke below the lower boundary of the daily sideways range with increased volume. The lower boundary of the daily sideways range coincides with the lower boundary of the current seller interest zone on the weekly timeframe (4204.3), which the buyers haven't yet tested on the daily timeframe. Pay attention to how the sellers closed the daily candle on October 26, 2023. They approached the historical buyer zone and waited for a buyer resurgence. On October 27, 2023, buyers attempted to make a comeback (as seen in the wick of the candle) from this historical weekly zone. However, sellers effortlessly prevailed over buyers on falling volume. There was no buyer at the lower boundary of the daily sideways range, and currently, there is still no buyer. Sales can be sought from the current seller's zone, including protection by the buyer at the level of 4204.3 or from the candle on 26.10.23. The target is 3696.2. The first obstacle for the short position might be the 50% of the latest weekly momentum. As for buying, there's no context for it at the moment. Good luck with your trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by AlexeyWolf
MSFT. Forecast especially for my beloved brotherEspecially for my beloved brother, who likes Microsoft (MSFT) stocks. On the weekly chart, we have a sideways pattern. The price has played out vector 10-11 and is currently forming a bearish vector 11-12 within the sideways range. The daily chart also shows a sideways pattern. The bearish vector 9-10 has been technically played out. However, a significant selling zone has formed almost throughout the sideways range, triggered by the candle on 25.10.23, which incidentally had the highest trading volume in the last 3 months. The zone was tested by the candle on 27.10.23, The seller resumed from the zone, as indicated by the candle's wick. The most likely scenario is for the price to break out of the daily sideways range to the downside (lower boundary at 324.39), protect this breakout, and play out the bearish vector of the weekly sideways pattern. Targets for short positions: 309.5 - the lower boundary of the weekly sideways pattern. 295 - the extremum pierced by the candle on April 24, 2023. 275 - the buyer's zone at the lower boundary of the monthly sideways pattern. If a buyer emerges at the lower boundary of the weekly sideways range, targets 2 and 3 may become irrelevant. Good luck with your trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by AlexeyWolf
Crude oil. Is it time to buy?On the daily chart, the price is in a sideways range. The short vector 5-6 has been played out. Yesterday's candle broke the test level (84.39) of the daily buyer zone on volume. On the hourly chart, there is a trend. The level of 86.3 serves as support for the short trend. After breaking the daily level of 84.39, accumulation takes place. Since the short vector in the daily range has been played out, it's worth considering long positions to play out the long vector 6-7. Aggressive local purchases can be sought above the level of the daily test at 84.39 if the price exits upwards from the accumulation, stabilizes for an hour above 84.39, and is then protected by the buyer. Systemic local purchases are advisable to look for when the price overcomes the support level of the short trend on the hourly chart (86.3), and then the buyer protects this level. Local sales can be sought from the protection of the seller at 84.39, if during the attack on this level, the buyer cannot absorb the last successful candle of the seller (time: 11-00). Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
NYMEX:CLZ2023
by AlexeyWolf
S&P 500 Index. There is no buyer nowOn the daily chart, the price is at the lower boundary of the sideways range. Yesterday's trading day favored the buyer with decreasing volume. On the hourly chart, the buyer resumed from the key impulse bar and twice attempted to breach the level of 4259.2 on volume but failed to do so effectively (failed to close an hourly candle above the level). The buyer has not made a strong presence yet. As mentioned earlier, local sales yesterday were observed from the level of 4259.2. For systemic sales, it is advisable to wait for the price to interact with the daily candle of October 19, 2023. Or after a successful breakout of the lower limit of the daily range and the seller defending this breakout. Local purchases can be sought upon the buyer's protection level at the lower boundary of the daily range: 4217.4. Targets are 4259.2, 4269.9. Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AlexeyWolf
S&P 500 Index. Will there be a buyer?On the daily chart, the price interacted with the lower boundary of the sideways range on decreasing volume. The buyer has not yet made a strong presence. On the hourly chart, a buyer's zone has formed at the lower boundary of the sideways range. It is more favorable to seek short positions from the daily candle of October 19, 2023, as previously mentioned. Local sales can also be considered after the seller's protection of 4238.4 or 4259.2. Targets are 4217, 4204, and possibly an update of local lows. One should observe how the price passes through the buyer's zones. Local purchases can be sought upon the resumption of the buyer from the buyer's zone at the lower boundary of the sideways range. Protection level 4217.4 or 4204.3. Targets are 4238.4, 4259.2." Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. The buyer is currently stronger.The daily candle on October 22, 2023, closed above 29695, making it more favorable to look for long positions at the beginning of the week. As a result, on the daily chart, the price has effectively exited the sideways range. As long as the price on the daily chart remains above the boundary of the range, it is preferable to seek long positions, assuming that the buyer will defend the exit from the sideways range. If the price on the daily chart returns to the range, it becomes more favorable to look for short positions after protecting the upper boundary of the sideways range. On the hourly chart, there is an ongoing long-term trend. Long positions can be considered upon buyer protection of their areas of interest in the last impulse, such as 32500 or 31804. If the buyer shows a new impulse, long positions can be sought from the buyer's areas in the new impulse. Sales are advisable to consider only when the price on the daily chart returns to the sideways range. Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
by AlexeyWolf
E-MINI S&P 500. Education. Situation analysisIn keeping with the idea outlined in the linked post, I wrote about the possibility of an aggressive short trade from the 4340.75 defense. Such an opportunity did indeed arise. Explanations for the diagram. After the seller defended the level, the price updated the local minimum, which means it reached the mandatory target for a short trade. Since the deal was considered aggressive, it had no further development. Then the price reached another level of 4351, and from the protection of this level by the seller, a full-fledged short movement began Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
CME_MINI:ESZ2023
by AlexeyWolf
Learning the Ropes: Shortening of Thrust (SOT)Hello, traders! Today we're going to discuss an important technical analysis technique that can help you spot potential trend reversals - the Shortening of Thrust (SOT). This method can be a game changer for new and experienced traders alike. Let's dive in! 🔎 What is Shortening of Thrust (SOT)? Shortening of Thrust (SOT) is a technique used to identify potential reversals in a trend, this technique is a part of Wyckoff and VSA theory. It is based on the observation that the strength of a trend tends to weaken as it approaches a reversal point. This weakening is often evidenced by a shortening of the thrusts, or strong price moves, that characterize the trend. How to Spot SOT To spot SOT shortening of thrust, you can follow these steps: Identify the current trend. This can be done by looking at the overall direction of the price action. For example, if the price is making higher highs and higher lows, then the trend is up. Identify the previous swing high Calculate the thrust of the current move. This is done by subtracting the previous swing high from the current swing high or low. For example, if the current swing high is 100 and the previous swing high is 80, then the thrust of the current move is 20. Compare the thrust of the current move to the thrust of previous moves in the same direction. If the thrust of the current move is shorter than the thrust of previous moves, then this is a sign of SOT shortening of thrust For example, let's say that the price is in an uptrend and you identify the following swing highs and lows: Swing high: 100 Previous swing high: 80 2nd last Previous swing high : 60 The thrust of the current move is 100 - 80 = 20. The thrust of the previous move is 80 - 60 = 20. Since the thrust of the current move is the same as the thrust of the previous move, there is no sign of SOT shortening of thrust. However, if the next swing high is only 110, then the thrust of the current move would be 110 - 100 = 10. This is shorter than the thrust of the previous move, which was 20. This would be a sign of SOT shortening of thrust. distance between the current swing low and previous swing low in a downtrend can be used to measure thrust . To do this, simply subtract the previous swing low from the current swing low. The result is the thrust of the current move. Spotting SOT in Higher Time Frames In an uptrend, if the distance between the high of the previous candle and the high of the current candle decreases, it might signal an upcoming SOT. Conversely, in a downtrend, if the distance between the low of the previous candle and the low of the current candle decreases, we may be witnessing an SOT. To illustrate, consider this example: In this chart, we see an uptrend with each high of the candles getting progressively closer to the next, indicating an up thrust. This signals an SOT and a subsequent reversal of the trend. 📊 Using SOT in Trading SOT can be used to identify entry points for trades against the trend. Traders can use SOT to identify entry points for trades against the trend. For example, a trader might identify a SOT in an Downtrend and enter a long position in anticipation of a reversal. It's crucial to use SOT in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and confirmation signals before making any trading decisions. Here are some additional tips for spotting SOT: Look for SOT in areas where there is other evidence of trend weakness, such as overbought or oversold conditions or divergences between price and momentum indicators. Use SOT in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and confirmation signals before making any trading decisions. Be aware that SOT can sometimes be false signals, so it is important to have a trading plan in place to manage your risk. Conclusion Shortening of Thrust (SOT) is a potent tool in a trader's arsenal, helping to identify potential reversals in a trend. However, remember that it's not a perfect indicator and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and confirmation signals before making any trading decisions. 🤝 Thank you for your continuous support, likes 🚀, follows, and comments. Your engagement keeps me motivated to consistently provide valuable content.
NSE:KPITTECHEducation
by AfnanTAjuddin
2
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #4Good evening, we are from Ukraine! Dear colleagues, I am glad to welcome you! Local distribution is not yet complete. After a sharp price drop, the instrument generates a margin. There is no culmination of sales, so the possible momentum is even lower. If there is no final impulse, then an upward movement is inevitable. The mood is positive, waiting for the asset to gain. Thank you for your attention, and a special thanks for your likes and comments. Sometimes you win/sometimes you learn. #Bitcoin
by WVitalievich
8
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #07Good evening , we are from Ukraine! I expect further depreciation of the cryptocurrency market. But if we see the strength of the buyer at the price of 25k, we will break through local highs. But judging by the current situation, the chart shows weakness. That is, after exiting the trading range (breaking through local highs), we correlate the spread to the volume, which indicates a narrowing of the spread and a decrease in volume several times. For further upward movement, we need new forces. At this time, they are absent. Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success . Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn . #Bitcoin
B
by WVitalievich
#ETH - thoughts out loud №1Good evening from Ukraine! Dear colleagues, I am sincerely pleased to welcome you, thank you for reading my vision of the current situation. To put it briefly, we need to shake things up in order to continue moving upward. And no one is interested in this, because professional market operators do not even know about your existence. Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success. Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn . - thoughts out loud - thoughts out loud - thoughts out loud BINANCE:ETHUSDT
by WVitalievich
CARBORUNDUM UNIVERSAL - A simple AnalysisOn the chart this looks like a good bounce from the support area and 50 EMA. Look at the candles in the down move. As move proceeded the candle sizes reduced indicating that the momentum was reducing. last candle in the down move was a small spread bar with high volume. This candle is a clear indication the Demand was taking control. The next bar is a bullish one with the long wick, wide spread and closing up. Clear indication that the bulls have taken control. Also, the delivery volumes give a clear indication of Accumulation. The chart indicates a good pull back trading opportunity with a good Risk Reward Ratio.
NSE:CARBORUNIVLong
by karthikmarar