ES price action analysis for 2 Apr 2020 trading plan
1 Apr 2020 recap - Major movement of ES happened during non-RTH. Level 2450 was tested from the last 4 H1 bars and defended eventually. The last hour bar did spring the prior swing low and form a demand tail. The magnitude of the down move might be significant but without aggressive supply. Daily volume is slightly lower than the previous day (31 Mar 2020). Result - did not commit below level 2550 and the swing low formed on 30 Mar 2020, suggests a bounce up from here.
A trading range between 2450-2630 is expected. The down-sloping accumulation structure since 12 Mar 2020 is still valid. ES could have gone through a sign of strength (SOS) rally from 24-26 Mar 2020 and currently on a backup action before marking-up higher.
Bias - Break above 2500 to challenge levels 2550, 2600 and the swing high (2630).
Potential intraday setup - look for possible continuation of the rally if committed above 2500. Else, short into an up thrust of level 2500. Pay close attention on how ES interacts with the key levels for reversal trades. It is possible to switch to swing trade should the close is favorable.
Key levels - Resistance: 2500, 2550 Support: 2450 ; Prior day high 2509 and day low 2434; Swing high and swing low from lower time frame.
Note: bullish bias is maintained until emergence of aggressive supply. During the unwinding of the volatility, expects relatively normal session without huge swing (up or down).
