Victoria's Secret Faces 30% Plunge as Turnaround Efforts StumbleVictoria’s Secret & Co., ( NYSE:VSCO ) experienced a staggering 30% drop in premarket trading on Thursday, sending shockwaves through the market as the lingerie giant's full-year sales outlook disappointed analysts and underscored its ongoing struggle for relevance.
The company's projection of $6 billion in net sales for the year fell short of expectations, signaling challenges in connecting with consumers amid changing trends. JP Morgan analyst Matthew Boss downgraded the stock to underweight, citing unmet sales improvement promises.
Despite initiatives such as a revamped fashion show and expanded apparel offerings, Victoria’s Secret ( NYSE:VSCO ) has failed to reverse its declining sales. Comparable sales fell by 6% in the crucial holiday quarter, despite better-than-expected profitability driven by enhanced inventory management.
While the company reported strong international sales growth of approximately 24%, this segment remains a small fraction of its overall business. Chief Financial Officer TJ Johnson highlighted North American sales as the primary challenge, attributing it to aggressive promotions and intense competition, particularly in the underwear category.
Chief Executive Officer Martin Waters acknowledged the need for continued promotional activity in the current quarter, particularly in areas where Victoria’s Secret ( NYSE:VSCO ) struggles to gain market share. Analysts echoed concerns about management execution, with BMO analyst Simeon Siegel lowering the price target amid skepticism about the company's turnaround efforts.
The stock's 26% decline over the past year, coupled with the record-setting premarket plunge, reflects mounting uncertainty about Victoria’s Secret's future. As the company grapples with shifting consumer preferences and intensifying competition, investors await evidence of successful execution to restore confidence in its prospects.
In conclusion, Victoria's Secret ( NYSE:VSCO ) faces significant challenges as it strives to regain its footing in the lingerie market. With sales falling short of expectations and investor confidence waning, the company must demonstrate effective strategies to adapt to evolving consumer demands and revitalize its brand image.
VSCO
Short VSCO* Got bid UP in late November, ahead of (then after) a bigger LOSS than expected at Earnings.
* Churned for 1 month up here (between $25 and $29)
* Finally broke down BELOW support at 25.
* "2 down month in force" according to Strat
* Technically, it's a pretty strong double top at $29 visible on this daily chart.
IF this stock holds BELOW 25, then I would like to see this drop to $20 by March, which I think is VERY doable.
Short on Victoria's Secret To begin, I am not a Seasoned Trader; I use this blog for:
1. Record keeping; &
2. Formalizing my thoughts
a. If I can't explain simply here, I shldn't engage
To begin, my Rules of Engagement ( RoE ) to identify an upside of +3 to 1 Risk to Reward ( “R/R” ).
• Asset | VSCO ( Victoria Secret )
• Type | Equity
• Position | Short
• Entry | $ 39.52
• Stop Loss ( SL ) | $ 41.11
• Target | $ 30.32
• Exp. Time Horizon | ~1 – 2 Wk’s
• Allocation | 2.5%
• R/R | 3.60 – 5.06
To begin, I will highlight the reasons why I am apprehensive about the trade ( the Con’s ) & finish up with the reasons why I’m interested in the position ( the Pro’s ). The issues / thoughts that make me uneasy ( the Con’s ) are:
• Irregular nature of the current market
o We are in a “Bear Market Rally”. Although, they always come to an end & will proceed lower, picking when is almost impossible.
• Sentiment
o Although the UofM sentiment is low, it is rising.
• FedWatch Tool
o The FedWatch tool only prices a 25 bp rate increase; that would be their first 25 bp increase in many reiterations but that’s what the market is saying.
• Share Repurchase Program
o They authorized the repurchase of up to $250 million of the Company’s common stock will be made in the open market, subject to market conditions and other factors; this year ( 2023 ).
o They could buy me out.
• PMI’s
o ISM New Orders #’s for Apparel are 0 ( i.e. not really falling “just yet” )
o These #’s will be updated the day before the Fed Meeting this Wednesday.
Now, the reasons I am interested in this position ( the Pro’s ):
• Sentiment ( cont. )
o As mentioned above, UofM Sentiment is rising albeit
• PMI’s
o ISM #’s for Apparel are within the middle of the range of “below 50”.
• Retail Sales
o I don’t see much correlation with these against VSCO; something to mention.
• Employment
o The Employment Situation in the US is favorable for employee’s. I could go through ALL of the employment metrics albeit I will say Initial Jobless Claims is the most volatile & while it “was” rising, it re-started it’s decline.
o Why do I care about this? Because this trade has more to do with the Federal Reserve decision & while Inflation is falling, Oil is rising ( albeit should not be with the recent Inventory #’s coming in ) meaning the Fed’s Inflation concern is still worse than it’s employment one; this means, a 50 bp rise is “likely”
To summarize, this Trade has A LOT to do with the Fed meeting this Wednesday. I believe they will raise interest rates by 50 bp’s but the FedWatch tool has it at 25 bp’s.
Financial Disclaimer | To reiterate, I’m not a Financial Advisor. If you engage based on the contents herein, you will lose money. If you interpret that mean by doing the opposite you will make money, that’s incorrect; you will also lose money.
Thanks for your time; I hope you have a lovely day.