Are Foreign Stocks Forging a Relative Comeback? Perhaps the most important macro driver for stock prices in the last year and a half has been the US Dollar Index. The DXY has ranged between the upper 90s and about 107 since the third quarter of 2022. When the greenback has been on the rise, equities have generally been weak. A softer dollar has led to a period of stock market strength. Of course, ebbs in the forex market are always crucial for foreign stocks. That brings me to today's idea.
The Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) has sharply underperformed the Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) since 2007. In that time, the dollar has moved from the low 70s to well above 100. I like to compare the relative price chart of VTI to VEU for a gauge of relative strength between the US and non-US markets. Right now, it might appear that discarding VEU in favor of an all-US portfolio would make the most sense. But I am monitoring a potential false breakout on the chart of VTI/VEU. If we see a continued drop off in relative US strength, then a move toward support, illustrated on the chart could be in play over the coming months.
So, don’t forget about the 37% chunk of the investable equity universe that is foreign stocks. Fundamentally, VEU trades about 13 times forward earnings estimates compared with about 19 times on the US cap-weighted index. The ex-US market also features more sector diversification and a higher dividend yield. Of course, this key technical move right now bears close watch for macro investors as 2024 gets underway.
VTI
MARKETS: DebtCeiling 2013& What FollowsHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
I am passionate about economics and history. Together, these two can tell a compelling story of ow interlinked everything is, and give a glimpse into the future should certain events repeat itself.
That is the core of my argument today as we look at the previous time he US Government hit a debt ceiling, and what happened after.
It would be great if you could watch the video , but if you can't spare 10min here's the summary:
📈 VTI : Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
I love using the VTI as a general overview of the trend on stocks. You could also use the S&P, it's just a personal preference considering they have interest and hold 50% plus shares of nearly EVERYTHING.
The VTI mostly consolidates and sees some downward price action for three years after USA announces debt crisis. VTI recovers in Jan 2016, three years later.
In other words, in the stock market you may see some down, some up. A near equal amount of buyers and sellers to balance out the total environment. China50 seems to be a precursor of what is about to happen on VTI.
📉 Look for buy opportunities during this time, prepare to hold long term.
📈 GOLD
Gold starts declining before the debt crisis is officially announced. A multiyear bear market follows, one of the worst. Continues up until 2016.
📉 Seems like a good idea to take note of the above and get out of gold, enter again during new lows
📈 BTCUSD / Crypto
We didn't have an overwhelming amount of alts during that time, so only the Bitcoin USD chart can give an idea of what may happen to crypto after a debt ceiling is announced. Interesting to note that BTC rallies almost parabolically and reaches it's first ATH. Then, at the same time the debt crisis is announced. Bitcoin continues into a multi year bear market, only to recover in Jan 2016.
📉 Do I really need to share my unpopular opinion here ... It all depends on how much you believe in history repeating itself.
📈 USOIL / OIL Industry
The oil industry sees the second worst bear market yet, only recovers in Jan 2016 but does not make a higher high until 2020.
📉 Oil saw a sharp v Shape recovery after the announcement of Covid. Oil is still in higher demand than usual considering scarcities so I believe there is another push upwards towards the 3.618 Fibonacci Extension, also the next immediate resistance zone around 200.
📈 EURUSD / strength of the Euro
The announcement of the 2013 debt ceiling sends the Euro into a bear trend against the dollar, bottoming out at 0.76 three years later, again only in 2016.
📉 Euro recently saw a strong V Shaped recovery, but considering the next point you may want to rethink holding Euros:
📈 DXY / Dollar Strength Index
In comparison by percentage, the DXY surpasses every other market. The DXY increases nearly parabolically over this period of time all the way until November 2016. Which naturally ames sense because when there is talks of an economic crises, people tend to sell their assets for CASH which would explain why markets dropped but DXY increases due to higher demand.
📉 Dollars gain against all in Forex markets.
Here's more info on the debt ceiling and what happens if a country defaults:
What are your thoughts on this?
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VTI massive monthly Head and Shoulders VTI has a monthly bearish divergence in RSI. There is massive head and shoulders forming. Headlines coming about how money is flowing in. I believe they just want money to flow in so they can have liquidity to dump into. The market has had the most orderly decline this year that I know of. I still believe massive downside is in store for ETF's, blue chips that haven't fallen yet (AHEM $AAPL) and oil as well after the fantastic year it just had. We have been goin straight up since GFC and now it's time to give some back. Hopefully not too much. First price target is green ray.
VTI (Total Stock Market)On an analysis earlier that I published, the DXY may be ready for a retracement to the previous wave low. Now reeling back in on the VTI Looks like we may be close to being done with the C phase on this timeframe. Wave C has so far retraced Wave B up to 161%. I don't want to get too greedy until we see economic indicators start to peak out. However, I would like to see if we could reach the 38% retracement of Wave C in the near future. We still ended the week with large sell volume. However, on the 12 hour time frame, some of that sell volume has started to weaken down a bit. We may be early on this assumption. The K and D of the RSI has reached an oversold point. They haven't crossed up past the 20 level just yet. The MacD has crossed the zero line but hasn't shown any indication of momentum shift just yet. I want to be careful with price targets here so I will only keep it at the 38% level for responsible trading. Let's see what happens!
What do you think?
Bitcoin crypto pathHello to all
This is bitcoin and do not despair while marching in the path planned according to the algorithm
And the other news is that if the vti index stabilizes here at the two-year price, the bitcoin price floor is now
Always note that news reacts to bitcoin, not bitcoin to news
ALL IN @ 100!Im not sure where exactly people are seeing this stock go below $99. people are seeing $70 and i just dont see that. but the support is very strong on the weekly and monthly chart @ 99! Regardless this is a great company i recommend adding to your long term, as i am not much of an options trader. this will fly back to new highs before you know it! The only thing that would invalidate and break this strong trend is a break under $95. i am long 100 shares @ 109. Good luck happy trading! hope to look back at this post in a few months with pure joy! would like to hear your opinions!
$AAPL BULLISHi try not to make my charts too difficult. take what the market gives me. until AAPL's daily trend breaks it's still bullish imo. everytime the market drops there's fear. Buy the fear. i am a swing trader mostly btw as i have found it to be my most profitable style of trading and easiest to make decisions of. GL!
Ocugen ocgn Strong candles Big target 10.28hi all bro... OCUGEN
firts target. 5.05 second 5.87 . and 6.10 big target:10.28
*****important- *****
thin line above price is the first target. thin line below price is support.. stop point. Fibonacci correction between the highest price and lowest fiat in the chart area are thick lines.. thick lines are hard support and hard resistances.. main target in fallen assets is the green line . decline in peak assets main target green line **********
thnks goodluck.. always stoploss ..
VTI - LONG - Entry points analysisVTI becoming increasingly overpriced after the pandemic recovery and the massive amounts of money printing began. Look at 3-5 year picture to get the idea.
Of course, the Fed's printing has increased the momentum for all equities. But how much longer can this steep increase - detached from all fundamental and prior performance - be sustained?
Those with a 10+ year hold objective may want to hold out with purchasing VTI until we see what the summer brings. Yellow triangle marks short term entry points. Large purple trapezoid marks potential entry points in the long term for those starting to feel bearish about these valuations.
$VTI.ASX looks like the downtrend is ending $VTI #ASX$VTI.ASX looks like the downtrend is trying to reverse $VTI #ASX
Visioneering Technologies Inc (VTI) is a medical device company. Its head office is based in the US state of Georgia. The Company has a portfolio of technologies to address eye care issues such as presbyopia, myopia and astigmatism, the company uses creative and differentiated design approaches to develop products that will ultimately enhance practitioner and patient experiences. The company has grown operations across the United States, Australia and Europe and is expanding into Asia with a focus on markets with high rates of myopia
Total Market Index Significantly Outpaced the Money SupplyIt seems like good deals are to be had when the total stock market increase is below the increase in the overall money supply.
The green is the M2 money supply and the yellow line is the VTI total stock market index.
You can see you got a good deal in March when stock prices fell below the increase in the money supply. The same for 2019 and 2016.
There might be something of a bubble as current prices significantly outpaced the growth in the money supply.
$VTI.ASX its ready to push higher from here #VTI$VTI.ASX its ready to push higher from here
Visioneering Technologies Inc (VTI) is a medical device company. Its head office is based in the US state of Georgia. The Company has a portfolio of technologies to address eye care issues such as presbyopia, myopia and astigmatism, the company uses creative and differentiated design approaches to develop products that will ultimately enhance practitioner and patient experiences. The company has grown operations across the United States, Australia and Europe and is expanding into Asia with a focus on markets with high rates of myopia.
First target 5c
xlf in a popular retreat zone. may be good hedge, or shortHeres some interesting spots on chart. xlf been lagging. similar to iwm.. which looked to be backing out of similar resistance zones.
May pickup some puts to add to my rally for nothing hedge.. Keep waiting to hear why we're back up here. fed rate that never changed? trump deals that never get made? earnings revisions everywhere.. so much debt.. etc
Seems this or iwm reacts stronger to downside, vs spy or vti.. Some may consider this a warning that there is downside risk mounting.. others on the trump train just see more money to harvest. Not sure where i stand. I guess id say im not convinced. But eager to see what happens.
The tail of two indexes_S&P 500_Nasdaq_Can we get long yet?Traders.
Side by side you'll see the daily chart of the two most liquid markets in the world. The S&P500 and the Nasdaq.
With these charts I'd like to say Thank You for those of you who helped me realize my true trading edge is with these indexes. My win/loss ratio has improved greatly and I'm able to handle my trading plan with discipline.
Its safe to say market conditions are pretty lackluster in both Indexes and USD, but nonetheless, the S&P 500 is what I've spent a majority of my life studying. S&P holds my best trading edge. So forgive me followers for giving up on forex markets but I think the trade qualities validate my decision.
SPX500
Is below its major level 2708 marked by two very solid levels of Fibonacci confluence. The thicker EMA's show need for caution as the market is still in a state of indecision attempting to find the path of least resistance. RSI is struggling around the 50 level.
NAS100
is above its major level of 6560. Whats interesting is how this index has found a major level of confluence at a different Fibonacci sequence than the S&P. In fact the whole bottoming process has been much stronger for the Nasdaq. The thicker EMA are strongly pushing toward the bullish path being the path of least resistance. RSI gives no hints either, struggling around the 50 level.
Here's what we're gonna do.
By the end of this week it will be obvious if this bottom is here to stay or if we are due to test the lows again. Any positions should be carefully considered as a direction has NOT been defined. Trades will be considered on a day to day basis and should be smaller position size given the market uncertainty. Longs preferred depending on S&P's reaction to its major level.
If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!