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VVIX

VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalAs Roll / Settle approaches for the VX M1 - M2 --- they are attempting to fend off the 50/200 cross for the VIX... good luck riggers on the trigger. M2 will appear to have a Gap as the Continuous Contract Squares. Typically we see a front run of Volatility ahead of Roll and things pickup again after settlement as Wednesday to Friday is EOW and decision time. SO much depends on Yields, it cannot be overemphasized. The slightest move there sends Equities lower rather quickly. Methodically but we see how the Equity Complex responded to the small move at a pivotal price. A print of 1.69 and then 1.571 spooked "them" Were we to throw over the 1.63 level, this can simply implode on its own, just as everyone was getting comfy with the Retracement. Tomorrow's macro Data along with next week will be all about the Taper, so the final hour will require a large effort to bring down the 10yr Yield and bring up Equities, ideally, they need to close at or near the highs again... or they are left to Globex. Asia and the EU isn't going to be too keen on bag holding while the cost of borrowing continues to rise.... they need this up, up, up. The CASH/SPOT VIX traded down to 19.07 today prior to Put buyers again bidding the lows. We saw the VIX trade 20.00 - the month's long Pivot... eek, again? It's one enormous magnet for Price time and again. 80 Ticks below is the Gap Fill... just fill it already... get it over with so Price can move on. This is not Retail, it is Hedge Funds, Insts, and Pros who are supporting and adding Protection to offset what they could not unload on the last Dump. We saw the VXN Dip in under 23 to 22.89 and reverse as the 10 Yr Yield began to test 1,57 ~ currently at 1.569. Globex will be required to gain traction again, there is another panic shaping up, one that will catch the Herd completely off guard. The VVIX is behaving as it should... providing a clear warning again of what is ahead. The next 24hours is critical, as this developed we needed to see a few things... they have appeared. There is a very large termor ahead.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
23
VXN - Open at Lower Trendline SupportThe VXN has been extremely reliable. The range has expanded with NQ VX. The same cannot be said for the VX Curve and VIX as it correlates to the ES, the compression and clear attempts to collar it are evident. We should anticipate lower Prices for both Today. Tuesday's NQ/QQQ Put buyers were used and abused once again, buying lows and having no chance to exit prior to RTH's NYSE open and vertical move off the pre-market lows from Globex. We doubt the same Buyers will attempt this again any time soon as they were simply crushed, abused - their pockets picked, becoming immense fuel after having gone all-in on the Crash for NQ. Impatient, and now wrecked on this trade, the DESKs see the entire order book and use it to their advantage every time, they never miss a beat in collecting bad retail bets. And make no mistake that bet was way offside near the Weekly Lower Support and Trend Line. It was a blind bet with no real awareness as to where Price was, simply a dart toss on who knows what. Keeping a close eye on the VIX and VXN as we come into trade today will be extreme in its importance as the next 24 hours are going to provide a great deal of information as to whether this can continue or simply roll back over and head to the 200s. Should Friday provide cover to run higher, things begin to change short term. Unfortunately, we will not know until the Close of Trading Friday... SOH here... Patience.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
3
ES - August 4347 - 4542 DrawConsecutive Weekly Bars were 4 Ticks apart, the 2nd being the lower of the two for September... a Higher High for the ES, by a 7.5 handles. Tomorrow is "triple witching" and we should anticipate volatility resulting from the expiration dates of the three financing instruments - stock options, stock index futures and stock index options all expire simultaneously. In addition, Derivatives Sqare twice a year @ the BIS - March / September. The effects are usally quite dramtic and "Max Pain" is unreliable as there are far larger Pools of Capital squaring. We are four trading days from the next Federal Reserve pronouncements. Typically we see the TREND exert itself ahead of the FED. If the do nothing... or pander the same - then it will be October, that won't work for most... not at all as Q3 Earnings are going to be - horrific - and everyone within the Complex knows this. We are yet to hear actual warnings, instead we see teh Media edge off "issues" and "severe Issues" with Semiconductors.... Not Black GOLD, but Arrangement GOLD. It won't pass, buggy whips included. Sellers remain and loom quite large, Retail was squeezed once again today as Futures, Put options and Shares were sold into during the prior several lows below 4441. Friday's are always a low liquidity session - with one expcetion, 3x ad 4x expirations. Usually the expanding range counter-trends last from 3 to 7 trading days. Gap Fills are axiomatic as we move from Monday to Friday as the probability increases as we move throught the week. More than a few traders are wondering if we off to far higher levels. We had solid strucutre counts on the YM RTY ES and even the NQ although it was the laggard. These counts respectively 8/9 - 8/9 - 6/9 and 4/9 have reversed. We now see the range expand as indicated by the VIX / VVIX / VXN - as vol of vol began to fall shaprly we has our signals the trade would reverse, this was yesterday. It will be difficult for Price to move to close over last months high indicated in the chart above. It may get close, but it will take a monumental effort as Institutions are in a very clear pattern of SELLS, they abated as there were no buyers, even the Retail Dip buyer tossed in the towel. The same Dip Buyer is now looking for 16, 17 , 18K for NQ - 5000 for the ES and 2400 for RTY as well as 37K for the Dow after this reversal - and to be fair, for well over a year they have been 100% correct. It was not until last September 3rd we had a sharp correction unimpeded. It has well beyond one year Price has tested it's 200SMA. We can how the defense came in looking at the 1 Hour Chart - the Death Cross was not to be permitted. Quite often, reactions from the 100SMA 1Hr are violent as it is THE LIS for Professional Managers. No one wants this game to end when the Taxpayer is funding enormous Profits, No One. The issue is it cannot contniue given the Global Backdrop and the longer it does, the more severe the Drop. We do not believe it will fall more than 10 -15% - perhpas dipping in to 400SMA Dailies, but not exceeding 3588 as the 1/5 conclusion, this would imply a larger, perhpas 30 - 50 % correction, one that is not recoverable for a long time. There is price where it squares, we are approaching it. Sellers moved Price out of their own balance as they have more to distribute. The only real hedge they have left is Volatilty Instruments, these are worthy of following very closely to determine when and where they have comfort in beyond Delta Nuetral for downside Profits, they continue to build these positions as VX declines and Protection decreases in Price along with Vol of Vol or the VVIX Instrument. Know what to look for as we move through this period. It can and wil change very quickly, we firmly believe 200SMAs will be tested into October/November and would suggest the 400SMAs stand a higher probability of being an Objective. We believe 4509 - yeah, that's going to be a very tough Close EOD. It should be SOLD wholesale.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
13
VVIX - 30 Day Forward Volatility - Vol of VolToday presents an opportunity for Volatility to expand or contract significantly at approximately 12:30 PM EST. VVIX is calculated using the implied volatility of out-of-the-money (OTM) put options in the VIX itself. The VVIX is defending the Counter-Trend Long. It presents downside risk for the Equity Complex is approaching. @ 8:30 AM EST Average Hourly Earnings Non-Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate 9:45 AM EST Final Services PMI 10:100 AM EST Final Services PMI The Federal Reserve Coupon Purchases $0 __________________________________________________________________ It is important to note the Data will beat. Unemployment benefit Drop-Offs will assure it. In addition, people returning to work will assist the numbers. This will create an interesting and potentially dangerous reaction. The Fed's 1/2 Mandates is Full-Employment. It implies one of their goals are being met. In addition, it implies increased probability of them carrying forward with their indicated "Taper" of MBS/Bond Purchases. It is not "Bullish", quite the opposite. Expect the "Delta Variant" to be front and center today as the parallel excuse to be bantered about for continued support of the Equity Complex. The Spin will be full tilt. ___________________________________________________________________ We have 3 Gaps below on the Indices. Each Instrument treaded Resistance during Globex and although we have been making higher highs and higher lows... It appears things are about to change given the VVIX's Bid for protection on the 30 Day Curve for Puts, the VXX supports this as well. The highs remain unbroken, they can be as it's Friday, a low participation Day, as well it is the last day of Summer Trading. The FED is steeping aside today, with No Bond Coupon Purchases. Volumes continue to dry up. It will be up to BR/VG to hold this hot mess togher. Wish them Luck in this effort.
V
by HK_L61
6
VIX - Price Objective Traded for Micros / LONG ApproachingPrice remains in a well controlled descent, although Price has completed a Target for retracement. Retracements have been minor measure moves, 6 failures at each RT. CASH / SPOT VIX has a Daily GAP at 14.80, lower Range is 14.20. The parabolic move off the lows could see 150-200% gains in very short order. We patiently wait for fills at targets with No Positions. A reversal is setting up for an extreme move on the Daily/Weekly TF.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
1
VIX - VIX.Explosion Setting up perfectlyAs the usual suspects attempt Gamma Squeeze after Gamm Squeeze. Bubbles the Chimp decides to take some off. Participants are backing away, $4 Trillion Jimmy Carnie touted on the "Sidelines" isn't coming into the Equity CONplex. It prefers CASH. TLT needs to close those over head Gaps prior to reversing... or does it. VIX coiling in a falling wedge where Wall Street wants those $0.25 Calls out the curve - simple crush VOL and they are doing so with relative ease.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
VIX - Vol Crush Ratios nearing extremesThe sudden sharp drop in implied volatility has triggered a tightly correlated decline in the Options Complex Values. Friday's Gap Up on the Job Report let a large amount of air out. Volumes on the ES, SPY, SPX were abysmal once again. We suggested that TECH was due for a pullback based upon the TLT, 10Yr Yields and a number of additional causations stated. The ROC for 10Yr yields caught many offsides, as they were NET Long TLT and ZB/ZN. We are seeing signs of a repeat of the February 10th ROC breakaway from 1.13 to 1.71. A "Rampage of Rates" on the long end of the Curve demonstrated it wasn't messing around as profligate Fiscal Policies were met with Revolt. Yields began the highest ROCs in their history - A clear warning sign of issues to come. The Federal Reserve crossed the Rubicon with "Tools" - Yield Curve Control (YCC) to force Yields lower beginning in April to test the arrangements. The FED then doubled down in May and June to assure calm. Since January there has been a large accumulation of Bonds across the Curve - a clear warning sign. One which implies the return of Capital at an assured loss as Inflation is running well above 17%. "Panic" set in then and fear has only continued to compound. We remain aggressive buyers of Volatility at levels. Recall the $0.25 Volatility Options bought to open immediately before the February 2020 collapse. Wall street ALWAYS gets it fill, we are waiting for this repeat on scale for a large correction. Not a collapse, but a correction, Currencies Wars are well under way. The DX remains well collared for now: 92/93. Summer trading is most often "Dodgy" as participation remains Low and the AIQC can move Price just about anywhere it chooses - wanting the high fill. We are closely watching implied volatility for new fills. We closed our range trades from 20 to 21.40 with solid gains and are now waiting to see if the CASH or SPOT VIX will trade to 15.00 to 15.50, it is there we will pick the pieces back up into Roll/Settlement.
TVC:VIX
by HK_L61
7
VIX V1/M1 @ 22.50 + 1 Tick 22.55 Confirms Index SELLThere is a large accumulation of VX Complex Instruments. A warning sign of higher VX to follow. And with the 10/20/50 in Positive Divergence, all signs point to an initial 10% Correction followed by an additional 9% correction. We anticipate the ES can trade below 3910 and overshoot to the downside 3600-3800 range can trade on overshoot. The Bigger Lick approaches, the Velocity will catch many by surprise. Participation requires strength.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
VIX - Delta "Change" - 22.50 Level with Negative Roll YieldVIX will move higher as Indices will front run their .382s Negative Roll Yields are always a warning, we alerted traders to this Important Condition on Settlement as V2/M2 exceeded V1/M1 by 8%. 22.50 is the level to watch for a breakout higher. August is a Negative time for the Indices. We maintain large Sell to Opens in AMZN, TSLA, TQQQ, NQ, ES, RTY, MNQ, MES, M2K We Bought to Open SQQQ & VVX. We sold 11 SPDR ETFS with the larges Bias to Consumer Discretionary as we indicated Demand has peaked. The A50 is a clear warning sign as we indicated last week.
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
ridethepig | VIX Exploding 📌 ridethepig | VIX Exploding Morning all... a short post, but one that is full of dramatic events. The 'discovered naked short' from wsb is a wildfire burning...the cleanest place to see the damage is in vol. This discovered vector in GME clarified the damaged relationship between central banks and market pricing while QE infinity provides a cover a 'risk free' environment. It's very similar to the round trip explosion we traded last year from 12 to 85 and back again. When you pin shorts (the root of all evil), whether its GME, BB or VIX... it has enormous mobility. The magic of reddit has exposed Melvin Capital, Blackrock (own +/- 10% of GME) et al, while Citadel cheerlead in the background and will of course be fine and make money either way. Let us take a closer look at the possible moves with the VIX; I find that the 44 pivot which is in the crosshairs can do one of two things; a) The offer can evaporate rather quickly, even if it was previously nailed by barrier, which will trigger a momentum gambit towards 85. b) We can attack and our opponent (sellers) without any anxiety step back in to occupy the control since it is their jurisdiction, i.e. one ladder that is controlled by your opponent. Now consider the latest chart update: Here a) was very much dependent on the October 2020 highs. Bear in mind how unafraid the buyers which are moving with force are. The wildfires are capable of satisfying a healthy appetite from retailers. with that in mind we are going to see capitulation across some more names. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
8