[UVXY] Wedging Hard!The leveraged nature makes the wedge particularly thin... just a matter of time!
VVIX
VXX holding steady on support levelVXX hang in there and staying right on the support level. MACD starting to move from green to red, which means a drop may be coming. I am still have this gut feeling that it wants to drop to the bottom of the trading channel before we see it make a big rally.
Just in case you care where my trend lines originate from. Not a good view for seeing details.
Getting pretty oversold on the 1D time frame and the MACD is getting close to switch form red to green.
Hope this helps and good luck.
VXX trend line updateUpdate after Tuesday's trading. It may have found a bottom. Be interesting to see if it is ready to break out.
Close up
[UVXY Volatility Matrix] Rule #1 of Charting: Haters Gon' Hate!People out here actin' like predicting the future is easy!
I'm just on my grind layin down some novel trading ideas. Take it or leave it.
UVXY definitely caught a right hook to the chin today but as I made clear in my new RSI Model idea, this type of melt down swing dip typically precedes a spike and it could be exactly what we're seeing here given a lot of data aligning for an EOM spike.
Not expecting it next week either, higher odds the week after based on how things are shaping up. It's all laid out for ya in the related ideas.
The magnitude and exact timing of the next spike is always the trickiest part but odds say we hit the mid-20's at least before EOM and HHs by mid-November (likely due to election chaos of some kind).
I'm trying to map the future for you guys here, don't take this sht so seriously! There's more to life than money people.
Happy to bide my time and take my learnings while dialing in my Crystal Ball B).
Volatility Matrix Analysis
Anyway, Volatility Matrix is looking MORE Bullish.
We got Entry Windows today for UVXY and and VXX and even VXN (not depicted here) and a LL for UVXY and VIX with both a Small BUY and Large BUY for VVIX.
Somethin is brewing here, we'll find out soon!
VXX trading channelA look at the current VXX trading channels. Currently riding a long the support of the major channel. There looks to be a small down channel where it may do a deeper test of support. If this pattern holds, then VXX is making higher lows. Does that mean we will see a new set of higher highs?
[VVIX/SPX] Sitting Exactly On Dec & Jan Peak DT S/R!And also the Feb gapup downtrend S/R (magenta). The horizontal S/R below it (green).
Another reason VVIX has limited downside but massive upside, also coming up on March peak downtrend S/R (purple) for what should be a pretty powerful wedge as Ratio squeezes down against the converging horizontal and uptrend S/R (white).
OG idea Aug 29th:
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Everything Still Lookin Quite Bullish!Got so caught up in SPX I neglected the Volatility Matrix! Haven't even peeked since my last post weeks ago but everything looking great still.
We have Large BUYs on all 4 of these + VXN with only one of the 5 having any significant SELL signals, VIX, with a Small SELL and brief Short Entry Window (but still leaning pretty BULLISH overall).
This suggests an even greater likelihood that volatility will spike soon and adds more supporting data to my generally BEARISH view of the markets right now.
[VVIX] Holding Back UVXY Like it Bout to Brawl... WATCHOUT!VVIX is the reason UVXY is staying low, this 6M downtrend channel is very comfortable for Price Action but it is gradually grinding away into the long term horizontal supports as well as the 1.5Y upchannel which has the most Price Action by far of all the up and downchannels.
VVIX can only go so low so the horizontal and uptrends have much more power in this dynamic meaning it's always the downtrend S/R that loses the battle.
Right now the most powerful upchannel is merging into the most powerful downchannel and Price should spike upon breaking above these major S/R market wedges in addition to the falling wedge here, which is likely the catalyst leading into HH peaks after breaking above each ensuing market wedge after that.
To add fuel to the fire, light blue is the strongest downtrend Core S/R and in this case acting as a powerful support to launch from as VVIX transitions from the downchannel to the upchannel.
Inspired by Aug 16th OG idea:
VXX trend linesVXX not ready yet. Looks to me that it is consolidating. True breakout still to come.
[VVIX] No One is Prepared for the VVIX Spike.. Will Launch UVXY!VVIX got caught on 6M downtrend S/R and has gone subterranean below Rock Bottom haha.
VVIX down, SPX up and UVXY holding steady is terrifying for markets and fckin gold for volatility traders.
The volatility markets are supposed to work roughly in tandem and when VVIX increases so will UVXY.
Given historical Price Action a move to 120 would be a piece of cake here (let alone the potential upside beyond that) and launch volatility markets like crazy.
As I've said repeatedly VVIX can not hold this low, it's VERY uncomfortable being below the falling wedge in these uncertain times and aching to snap back into a more comfortable range.
VVIX spike will likely coincide with SPX getting rejected by Downtrend Peak Channel...
Markets simply can't go much higher with VVIX this low already.
[VVIX] At Rock Bottom Wedging Against Core 6M Downtrend S/R!With VVIX hitting rock bottom on Friday and VIX/UVXY remaining elevated 20%, there is tons of juicy upside potential. I made slight adjustment to the falling wedge here based on Friday's price action.
Today Price gravitated right back to the very strong white horizontal S/R and it's wedging more and more under the core 6M downtrend S/R (light blue).
This wedge gonna pop by mid-oct, it simply has no place left to go!
[VVIX] I'm Not Just Pullin This Out My @$$ People!It's resting exactly on the bottom of that very powerful long term S/R trend channel and wedging up right against the 6M downtrend S/R.
It almost exactly cleared the entire downtrend channel (it got a little stopped up by the white horizontal S/R) before coming to rest right atop the yellow line.
This has got to bounce up people, it just can't stay this low much longer. It's itchin' to get out of this channel and under is just a bit uncomfortable for it in this economic and political climate.
[UVXY] Shoot for Stars and You Just May Land on the MOON!I'm a junkie for those green circles at the bottom of a large upswing B).
My final loadups will be around the nearby purple lines, should be no stoppin it by then.
First TP is top purple line ~30.
I made these lines at the 2H so you're just gonna have to deal.
[VVIX] Bouncing Off Bottom of 2Y Uptrend ChannelThis channel has the most Price action by far and Price is stuck right at 2Y uptrend channel bottom and 6M downtrend channel with the 2nd most Price action after the one right below.
Price likely to continue climbing yellow uptrend channel, white is max low here for the near term. Upside potential is 4 white horizontal trend channels.
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Looks Like We May Have Hit Bottom!Today may have been just the turning point we were lookin for to precede a volatilty spike taking off later this week.
Right now the model is only marginally more bullish than Neutral but is the last place we were looking for near term confirms as the bigger picture is still quite bullish for volatility.
At the 2H this turn has only just begun so it is only weak signals right now but if this does turn into a spike then we may have found quite the little formula for getting in early.
Signals from Weakest to Strongest:
LL: 1 x UVXY, 2 x VXN, 2 x VIX
BUY Window: 5 x UVXY, 1 x VVIX
SB: 1 x UVXY
Still looking for more SB's and especially LB's to really confirm another up breakout but everything is leanin in the right direction now after today.
UVXY chart is all fcked looking at this view haha, I'll break out the new structural S/R channels there separately (also more bullish after today!).
