VVX
VIX - DailyLosing the 55ED_EMA was not a good look for Vol.OnlyFabs.
The downtrend we indicted remains in Trade for now.
Vol of Vol collapsed well below the 103 Pivot... primarily due to
a solid lack of participation.
With $x Expiry ahead on the Day of the FOMC Rate Decision, it's
going to be a highly volatile day.
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VIX - Roll Yield ImportanceImportant Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX.
I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss
the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam...
Nothing is further from the Truth.
That statement demonstrates how there are far too many
"Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself.
The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling Maturity
outline in the prior 2 Posts.
We simply laid the groundwork for how this all comes together
to show how "balance" is achieved for the VXX Instrument....
it is constantly moving from M1 to M2 the Day it Settles.
Hopefully, this was clear enough for those unfamiliar with how
Volatility works in the Futures Markets and how it impacts
ALL Markets.
The Methodology is known, it is based upon VIX Futures in relation
to the Spot VIX >>> SPOT VIX & M1 @ Settle "Converge" then to become
equal in Price @ PAR.
Roll Yield is how the VXX Derives its Price.
VXX is not a STOCK, it is an Index based upon M1/M2.
It simply is a Wash Rinse Repeat cycle Index for M1 / M2 in Constant Maturity.
I received a message asking me to explain this, Hopefully, it is clear now.
NQ - Building December SELLs NQ ES RTY YM - First EntriesMNQ STO - 10 x 15365
MNQ STO - 5 x 15360
MNQ STO - 5 x 15355
MNQ STO - 5 x 15350
EQ - 2.5 NQ Sells
After Kaplans later Friday reversal, the die was cast for the cartoonish over throw.
Our Initial Target from 3 weeks ago was 15363, this target was met and exceeded
in the NQ SEP CT @ 15384.
We will continue to use SEP as the BTO Hedge, we closed 2 NQ from 170 break
at 322. We hold Zero SEP Hedge for NQ currently.
We remain in a large Bid for SOXS, with 28K @ 6.91~
ES -STO 6.5K CTs
RTY - 0 Positions
YM - 0 Positions
CL - STO 7K 65.87
VXX - BTO 6 CTs 2644
VX - M1/M2/M3 BTO 8 CTs on Curve
VXM - M1 40MCTs
SOXS - 28K ~ 6.912
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The VIX Curve implies an 86% chance of increased Volatility for the Indices today.
Extremes in many metrics and indicators, keep us in a Line Feed Out strategy for a violent
reversal.
The Monthly patterns, imho - are completing off two historic conditions:
1. A break away monthly Gap - never occurred in History, never.
2. 7 Monthly Bull Bars probability is 12:1 against. An 8th has never occurred in the past 25 Years.
Market breadth is extreme in its weakness.
Gamma was once again the driver, with vastly reduced Call Volumes.
AAPL TSLA GOOG NVDA - another attempt at GS will fail imho
AMC Apes bought the 39s... we are seller of AMC from 37.50 to 41.00
TSLA - Sellers at 720 - 750
ARKK - Sellers 120.11 to 125
WE Anticipate a violent reversal very soon. Ideally, today should close Negative no later than Globex.
Prosperity to those positioned for the reversal.
- HK
ES - 9-10% downside continues to build as VX completesChopping along on low Volume while the likes of Fanboi
carnage is readily apparent... not a confidence builder.
Tick Tock into Wednesday... chip chop the top.
Even the Apes bought it, trendy.
A throw-over would be the absolute perfect setup for
this impending, incipient, unimaginable - decline.
This week will be one for the books.
VIX - waiting for the 2nd TapA vix.plosion remains in trade, patience will reward holders
to the 30s and then 40s as the coiled spring breaks and gives
way to a large run to the upside.
Cash/Spot VIX coming back into lower range with a 160 tick
differentail.
We need to see SPOT VIX trade into the 15s for our upside
targets to begin their assault on BULLs.
Blind sided by a bunch.