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Vxcurve

VXF - Daily into 2022Volatility remains compressed with a slow and steady move lower on declining volumes. Protection is being bid at levels out the VX Curve at levels for February and March Expiries. It appears the Operators are beginning to Position ahead of the FOMC Meeting - January 25-26 (Tuesday-Wednesday). _________________________________________________________ Price Objectives for JAN VX (VXF) - 19.85 / 19.30 and the largest 2021 Daily extensions @ 15.20 & 12.30 for a Full extension. In the Chart above observe the prior two Highs with successive lower lows as VX Expanded into the end of 2021. Clear A / B / C patterns with the current move lower building "C". TIme indicates this move lower in VX Complex may continue into the first week in January. __________________________________________________________ The VX Curve remains in Contango (M1 - M4) Term Structure JAN - 20.80 @ 9.86% FEB - 22.85 @ 5.78% MAR - 24.17 @ 4.14% APR - 25.17 @ 1.71% ___________________________________________________________ October / November / December Roll to Settle arrived with Lows. The break of the 2021 50% implies there are Higher Highs ahead, from where is Time-Dependent - we can see the 3 Drives to a Low present prior to large reversals. By TIME - the same pattern suggests a Low for VX in early January. For Price - a Higher low by approximately 100 BPS. Unfortunately - there is a Large Daily Gap @ 17.35 for VFX for the Continuous Contract to Fill. __________________________________________________________ We remain patient for the Lower FIll and will wait for entry.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
1
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalAs Roll / Settle approaches for the VX M1 - M2 --- they are attempting to fend off the 50/200 cross for the VIX... good luck riggers on the trigger. M2 will appear to have a Gap as the Continuous Contract Squares. Typically we see a front run of Volatility ahead of Roll and things pickup again after settlement as Wednesday to Friday is EOW and decision time. SO much depends on Yields, it cannot be overemphasized. The slightest move there sends Equities lower rather quickly. Methodically but we see how the Equity Complex responded to the small move at a pivotal price. A print of 1.69 and then 1.571 spooked "them" Were we to throw over the 1.63 level, this can simply implode on its own, just as everyone was getting comfy with the Retracement. Tomorrow's macro Data along with next week will be all about the Taper, so the final hour will require a large effort to bring down the 10yr Yield and bring up Equities, ideally, they need to close at or near the highs again... or they are left to Globex. Asia and the EU isn't going to be too keen on bag holding while the cost of borrowing continues to rise.... they need this up, up, up. The CASH/SPOT VIX traded down to 19.07 today prior to Put buyers again bidding the lows. We saw the VIX trade 20.00 - the month's long Pivot... eek, again? It's one enormous magnet for Price time and again. 80 Ticks below is the Gap Fill... just fill it already... get it over with so Price can move on. This is not Retail, it is Hedge Funds, Insts, and Pros who are supporting and adding Protection to offset what they could not unload on the last Dump. We saw the VXN Dip in under 23 to 22.89 and reverse as the 10 Yr Yield began to test 1,57 ~ currently at 1.569. Globex will be required to gain traction again, there is another panic shaping up, one that will catch the Herd completely off guard. The VVIX is behaving as it should... providing a clear warning again of what is ahead. The next 24hours is critical, as this developed we needed to see a few things... they have appeared. There is a very large termor ahead.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
23
VXMT - Mid Term VX - M3/M5/M7, Backwardation Prior @ 22.40The pattern, which for going on 7 Months has been the same. We see Price Action in the VIX Complex within a tight timeframe surround ST Constant 30 Day Maturities (M1/M2) - during Roll Week (prior 2nd Wednesday of Front Month M1) into Settlement, the 3rd week. Every Month this skews the VXX on the ST Curve as it front Loads 100% of exposure to Roll Yield. 77% of the time during this transition to Balance, the VX Curve is in Contango. We witnessed the Prior settlement trade in Backwardation by the largest spread we have seen during the Fed Induced Rally. M2 was Price @ 22.40 during this settlement. The FED's minions quickly squared this to avoid a mini-panic for protection which had built up during the prior 7 trading days. Immense effort was applied to calm the VX Curves M1-M3 CTs. Roll Yield skewed to a level unseen since FEB of 2020, the MId Term Vol sold along with the balance of the short dated CTs - M1 & M2. The VX Curves suppression is coming to an end. This was the first sign in 17 months - uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve was gaining traction. It continues to become a far larger issue at present, as by the FED's admission they have overcooked things... the nagging Inflation rate remains well above their target of 2%. CPI & PPI as well as exogenous "Things We need" are in an obvious Price Uptrend - Gas, Food, Energy... etal. Consumers are conserving, seeing higher prices while hearing they will be heading lower... has created a retrenchment in both spending and trust in both Government's Fiscal as well as the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy. Confidence in both is quietly deteriorating while Wall Street exclaims the Echo works. It does not. Kicking the Can down the road a few months, is not widely held as a solution by the Public, they are well aware there is a storm dead ahead. They "sense" the stimulus support of wages, rents and many other benefits are coming to a decided end. Housing will be in crisis while the Supreme Court vacations... Debt has ballooned to absurd levels since March of 2020 while the First Abusers benefitted enormously, the American Citizenry wants more of the same. It isn't coming any time soon. The dismay and unrest this has begun is appearing across our Nation. .... best to prepare for some rough times ahead. - HK
CBOE:VIX6MLong
by HK_L61
1
VXX - ES Weakening with even greater Technical DivergencesVXX coming back to lower end of Range. We are preparing for a large Selloff in the next 48 hours. VXX Entries are Laddered down to 24.50 from 27.05. M1/M2/M3 VX Curve as well M3-M4 provide pressure for now... Only for Low Participation - We anticipate a High Tomorrow at the latest for ES. It can hold off as late as Globex... we'll be 40% into our SELL with the follow on SELLs into September TF 8th - 21st. December will be our Futures SELL, SEP the Hedge.
CBOE:VXXLong
by HK_L61
4