IHDG: A Rising Dollar is No Problem For This Foreign ETFThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has gotten off to a rip-roaring start to 2024. Up more than 2% on the year, the greenback’s ascent comes after significant declines over the final handful of months in 2023. That is usually a headwind for equities, particularly shares of companies domiciled overseas. Not surprisingly, we’ve seen many foreign index funds suffer relative to the S&P 500 thus far in January.
To combat these currency concerns, hedging FX exposure reaps rewards in these environments. The WisdomTree International Hedged Quality Dividend Growth Fund ETF (IHDG) does just that. In addition to mitigating the risks of a rising dollar, the strategy aims to own high-quality dividend growth companies. While this ETF can be a replacement for a high-yield or large-cap position among long-term investors, technicians might look at its chart and see an intriguing development.
My featured chart is a breakout in IHDG. A rally above the key $41 level tells me there is plenty of strength away from the US mega-cap tech stocks. IHDG features a rising 200-day moving average with its price above both the 200dma and nearer-term 50dma. What’s more, following the breakout above $41, next resistance could come into play around its late 2021 highs above $46, while ample volume by price in the $36 to $41 range should offer cushion on any pullbacks.
So, don’t discount non-US equities even as the SPX and QQQ lead the global markets. If the trend of a stronger DXY continues, IHDG may keep on shining versus foreign index equity ETFs.
VXUS
Falling Dollar Creates Opportunity For Outperformance AMEX:SPY TVC:DXY AMEX:EFA
The opportunity presented by a falling dollar:
These are simple Yearly Candles. The chart depicts how the falling dollar can provide outperformance in foreign equities vs domestic equities. The top chart is simply a chart of the dollar index. The middle chart is EFA vs SPY. The bottom chart is that of the EFA. Take notice as the dollar weakens - represented in the first chart by red candles - that EFA outperforms SPY as denoted in the second chart by white candles. Since 2002 There have been 9 years in which EFA outperformed the SPY. 7 of the years have been associated with a falling dollar. One of the off years was 2005. The dollar was up, but the overall long term trend was still down. The other off year, was this past year. Even though the dollar was strong it peaked in Q4 and fell precipitately into the new year kickstarting new strength in EFA. The 9 years of outperformance generated positive returns in 7 of those years. The 2 years of negative performance were in 2002 and in 2022. Two of the worst years on record risk assets globally.
Those seven years generated returns of:
2003: 38.15%
2004: 17.16%
2005: 11.26%
2006: 23.20%
2007: 7.21%
2012: 14.80%
2017: 21.79%
Average Return: 19.08%
What is noticeable is how strong the returns can be when the dollar enters a secular decline. 2003 through 2007 was particularly outstanding. During that time the dollar fell by roughly 34%. While there hasn't been a secular decline in the dollar since then, I think it pays to keep an open mind to the possibilities.
Funds for the falling dollar: $EFA $VEU $VEA $VXUS
VXUS near levels to add to positionVXUS is an ETF issued by Vanguard that seeks to track the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index, which measures the investment return of stocks issued by companies located outside the United States. VXUS holds 7760 stocks, with net assets totaling $416.8 billion and an expense ratio of only 0.08% this ETF is extremely attractive for exposure to mostly large cap global equities. With the recent identification of a new variant of Covid the ETF's price has started to decline quite quickly. Viewing this ETF as a long term investment declines in price due to market panics are seen as excellent opportunities to purchase shares at reduced prices. As price declines I will continue to gradually increase the size of my position in this fund. Recent events have shown us that the perceived disruptions and negative effects of the Covid pandemic have not been nearly as detrimental to business as previously thought and so any undue panic simply represent an opportunity for patient, dispassionate investors to pick up bargains.
*Not a recommendation to buy or sell*