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VXX

nasdaq to 20k?!good evening, --- consider this post somewhat fictional for now, created more for entertainment purposes, but i want you to know that there are some serious data points which i'm going to bring up to build the case that the stock market has found a long term bottom. --- ~our monthly indicator is finally oversold for the first time since 2009 market low and is on the verge of crossing bullish. ~nasdaq is backtesting the monthly ichimoku cloud. ~0.382 cycle wave 4 target hit through a very complex correction . ~the monthly rsi has confirmed a hidden bear. ~the us dollar found a top and is headed down to about 80 bucks over this next year. ~us10y, topped out. ~fed might run out of money if they continue to press the markets. ~fear is at all time high. ~retail short positions are at all time high. ~and i'm buying everything. --- the cycle w5 target on nasdaq sits at $20,000 and we could be in the early stages of beginning that ascension. --- ps. take my words with a total grain of salt, as i could be very much dreaming here. ps2. in my last big nasdaq post, i called the top, but was early by a few months. it also went a bit higher, so if i adjust the target with the current data, we have reached the 4th wave target successfully. ✌
TVC:NDQLong
by notoriousbids
6
fakeout into a shakeoutgood eve' over the last 4 weeks the es1! has seen a bit of a shakeout which has scared a lot of people out of the market. whenever these things happen, i always wonder what it is that they're afraid of? --- the es1! completed 5 waves up on a weekly timeframe from the 2023 low which we predicted, to the 2024 top which we did not pinpoint this time around. i'm predicting we sweep the high 1-2 more times into the fed pivot, before dropping very aggressively into the presidential election. --- if all goes well, the timeline will look like this: > we pop to sweep the high into the "fed pivot" > we drop -20% into the presidential election. > the presidential election turns out to be favorable for the market: > next bull run begins. --- i'm not your financial advisor, in fact - i'm not telling you to be a buyer nor a seller. just sharing my interpretation of the chart in front of me. do with this information what you will. 🌙
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
Long $UVXY 6x- 20x gains ahead?Finally got the reversal I've been looking for in $UVXY. My entry was at $23 and I think we have a large move ahead of us. If we look at the chart, we have our first green flat bottomed Heikin Ashi candle. Normally with a move like today's people are exiting puts and shorting UVXY, but I think this move is just starting and vol is about to become unpinned. Over the coming 1-2 months, I think we can see 6x-20x gains through UVXY. I'm looking for price to test at a minimum the $168 level and reach a potential high of $457. I'll start taking profits in the $168-242 range and see if we can get all the way up to the top of the range. Playing this both through a large spot position and through options. Let's see what happens in the coming months.
CBOE:UVXY
by benjihyam
81
Large correction coming soon? $VXX is the play.If you've been following me for a while, you know that I've been warning of a crash for some period of time, and now I think we're within weeks of that playing out. I've largely been bullish for the past year, with periods where I thought things might fall, but now all of my upside targets for BTC have been hit (minus GETTEX:54K which is still possible) and stocks are looking like they're on their last leg higher. While I'm very bullish over the long-term (into 2027), I think that the rest 2024 will be bearish (which would catch a majority of the market off guard as everyone is expecting a top to be put in by the end of this year). They're not really expecting for the rest of the year to be bearish and for 2025-2027 to be the real bull run. This is my base case. I've been watching VXX for sometime, and I think we're very close to the levels where we'll see a reaction higher. I think over the next couple of weeks, some data will come out that sends VXX into a capitulation move lower, down to the $12-13 supports that are on the chart. Those levels will be great levels to buy some calls. I'll be buying June $20 + $25C as I think those will provide the best risk/reward for this move, if it is to play out. Let's see if it plays out.
CBOE:VXXLong
by benjihyam
1
Volatility Heads Up with a First Break OutOver the last couple of days, the previous posts have been showing a number of indications from various perspectives about a financial market breakdown, and here we have an essential heads up... VOLATILTIY. I use the VXX ETN for the metrics it provides, albeit its idiosyncrasies. August into September, a breakdown into a lower range indicated that a RISK-ON situation was in the equity markets. Since September, this started reversing, rather strongly, and consolidated at the earlier range. In the past week, Thursday, it gave an real indication of what is forming... a significant Volatility breakout. This first stage break out is seen with the breaking out of a trend line, formed by the 4/1 line of the Gann Fan. This movement is a rather solid candlestick with momentum to boot, and both MACD and VolDiv are crossing up bullishly and breaking into the next upper range. So, expect a break out of the upper range (orange rectangle), as well as the 8/1 line of the Gann Fan forming the next trend line resistance. When this happens, VXX may be spring boarding to 35, from 26-27 area. That is like a 50% increase in VXX. Keep a close eye on this... the more the signs point, the more real it becomes.
CBOE:VXXLong
by Auguraltrader
Volatility heads up given - watch this one!This is the VXX (VIX ETN) and can be used as an indicative heads up to the equity market volatility. We are now at a rather unique point where the rubber band has been stretched so far, and at a point where you can just feel the tremor of it about to snap… The daily chart of the VXX has been falling over the months, and in recent weeks, there is a long term MACD divergence that has not been sorted. This happened as the equity markets pushed much further up. This week saw a quick retracement and the VXX acted accordingly. The thing here is that this time, the VolDiv indicator got aligned. With these two aligned and about to break up into bullish territory (above zero), it give good heads up that a volatility spike is about to happen. Concomitant to the equity indexes falling off the cliff. It does not look like it will happen in the immediate term, but within weeks to come IMHO.
CBOE:VXXLong
by Auguraltrader
Is it finally time for a vol event?I know everyone thinks volatility is dead because it largely hasn't moved for the past year, however, I think that could be changing in the near future. The market has largely felt similar to how it did before the covid drop. People ignoring the risks right in front of them and blindly thinking the market will continue up. The chart is telling me it might be time for volatility to pick up. Maybe Thursday or Friday this week? If we do get a vol event, I think it'll be a sharp one, with ~100% rise likely up into the $40 resistances. Let's see if it plays out. I bought a lot of calls just incase it happens.
CBOE:VXXLong
by benjihyam
Significant Divergence in equity markets and leading indicatorsObservable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced. What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines. The combined US equity markets and particularly the NASDAQ itself is very bullish, spiking up and hard in the last two weeks, extending further from mean. So, going forward the next couple of weeks, either one of two needs to happen. EITHER, the equity indexes continue the upward surge and the leading indicators reverse course to align and exceed (and return to be leading indicators); OR the equity indexes breakdown really hard to converge with the leading indicators. Watch for the latter, as the leading indicators break down of the trend line and show commitment. Then the equity markets may give a swift reversion into convergence and confluence. There are many ways to look at this and many more parameters to add in, but keeping it as simple as I would, perhaps waiting and watching for the next couple of weeks might be better than taking a committed position. Stay safe, keep a watchful look, be ready...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
VXX points to volatility returning quick and fastWatching the VXX, the VIX ETN, can be quite interesting. It has its own idiosyncrasies, but over the VIX index, this ETN has volume data and charts better than the index on patterns, break outs and break downs. It appears that there has been a bullish divergence of the technical indicators particularly the VolDiv, and less so on the MACD. Nonetheless, it is clearly observed. Recently, a breakdown out of a range support appeared to fake out the market, particularly when yesterday's candle is rather full, bullish an broke back into the range. Furthermore, the TD Buy Setup ended and overextended... just waiting for that TD Flip. Taken together, the short of this (pun not intended) is that volatility is due to return with a vengeance at least to the upper end of the range for a start. Heads up!
CBOE:VXXLong
by Auguraltrader
1