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VXX

IWM Rejection at the 21 day EMA?Global futures are rebounding on Monday after a bearish close on Friday, and the worst week for markets since October. The SPY is catching a strong bounce off the 50 day MA, and is working its way toward the 21 day EMA at 376.80 as we approach the open. I expect to see strong resistance here, and a continuation of the downtrend from last week, toward the 50 day MA at 370.80. The Nasdaq ( QQQ ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA , also, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell (IWM ), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar ( DXY ) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV , HQD , QID .
AMEX:IWMShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
QQQ Bounce to 21 day EMA, Rejection Next?The Nasdaq ( QQQ ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell ( IWM ), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA in pre-market, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. SPY is also seeing a bounce toward the 21 day EMA, where we expect to see a rejection. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar ( DXY ) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV , HQD , QID .
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
SPY Poised to Retest 21 Day EMA as ResistanceGlobal futures are rebounding on Monday after a bearish close on Friday, and the worst week for markets since October. The SPY is catching a strong bounce off the 50 day MA, and is working its way toward the 21 day EMA at 376.80 as we approach the open. I expect to see strong resistance here, and a continuation of the downtrend from last week, toward the 50 day MA at 370.80. The Nasdaq (QQQ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA, also, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell (IWM), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA in pre-market, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar (DXY) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
15
Face/OffGlobal futures are tanking again on Friday morning, with the US majors down around 0.8% pre-market. We're seeing a sea of red across Europe and Asia as well, with the DAX, CAC40, FTSE100, and Hang Seng all down around 1.5%. Vix is catching a strong bid this morning, and is back at a 33 handle and up around 12% pre-market. The short squeeze bonanza continues this morning, with hedge funds suffering max pain, as retail investors trample on their shorts, one by one, and in carefully coordinated fashion. As we mentioned yesterday in our analysis, "As hedge funds continue to suffer massive losses from these running short squeezes, they're forced to liquidate their long positions in the most loved companies. This could be why we're seeing broader market weakness this morning despite strong quarterly earnings reports." The dollar (DXY) is trading flat, and hovering between the descending trendline, and IHS neckline just above. A break above the neckline could put major pressure on risk assets. The 10Y yield is blowing up this morning after a strong bounce near the 50 day MA. We're now back above the 21 day EMA, and sitting around 1.09%. In Crypto, Bitcoin is soaring after Elon Musk tweeted about the asset, and changed his Twitter description to simply "#Bitcoin". At 3AM on the dot, Bitcoin went parabolic, and rose by as much as 15%, back to a $37k handle. Maybe the SEC may want to look into this? Wait, who? While crypto's are soaring, so is good ole' original money, Gold. We saw a strong bounce off the 200 day MA at $1,849/oz, and we're up 1.5% on the day, and sitting at $1,870. Needless to say, we're seeing a risk off mood across the board as we approach the cash open. Key levels to watch today on SPY are the 21 day EMA at 377.47 for strong resistance, and the 50 day MA, sitting at 370.55, for strong support. The 50 is actually overlapping the lower band of the white channel. If bears capture this level, the almighty megaphone is back play, around 361. As I write, we're getting panic bid towards the 21 day EMA. Let's see what the hedge funds have to say today in rebuttle to the WSB crowd. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. If you'd like to follow the price action all day, join us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Have a great weekend! Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Futures Mixed After Wednesday Market MassacreIt was a massacre yesterday with global markets tanking in upwards of 3.5%, as the most shorted stocks continued to skyrocket on pure stupidity. The S&P500 saw an overnight session low of 3,703.75, which is the bottom of our white channel, and where the 50 day MA is sitting on our SPY chart. We mentioned in our analysis yesterday, that if the 200MA (h) broke, which it did, that we could see a test of this level. We're seeing a notable bounce here in pre-market trade but we're a mile below the important 21 day EMA, which should now act as resistance. Vix saw a 37 handle in aftermarket trade yesterday, and ended the day up a whopping 61%. As hedge funds continue to suffer massive losses from these running short squeezes, they're forced to liquidate their long positions in the most loved companies. This could be why we're seeing broader market weakness this morning despite strong quarterly earnings reports. We saw Apple, Tesla, and Facebook post mixed earnings, however Apple saw beats across the board, and is still trading down around 1.5% pre-market. Tesla is suffering after an ugly earnings report, which also lacked forward guidance, we're down aroun 4%. Facebook is still losing members rapidly, and apparently sees difficult times ahead, also. This is putting some pressure on the stock, even though they beat on revenue. We're currently down around half a percent. European and Asian markets continued to sell off today, with the FTSE down around 0.85%, and the Hand Seng down by as much as 2.5%. Jobless claims came in better than expected because all you have to do is raise the expectations, right? 847K Americans filed for first time jobless benefits last week, with 4.77 million continuing claims. Q4 GDP came in weaker than expected at 4% vs 4.4% expected. Wholesale and Retail inventories rose modestly by 1% and 0.1% respectively. In rates, the 10Y yield is sitting around 1.02% after hitting a session low of 0.998%. We're sitting just above the 50 day MA at .963%, and I expect a potential test of this level in the interim, before we continue to trend upward. The dollar (DXY) is poised to open near the key neckline in our IHS around 90.75, which I remind traders is above the longterm descending resistance trendline, which we broke through yesterday with conviction. The Put/Call is sitting around .50 as we approach the open, and is incredibly skewed considering the day we had yesterday. Traders clearly don't think this is a real correction. For most traders sake, I hope they're right. Gold is catching a bid this morning, and we're up around half a percent. Bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend, but is catching a bid this morning, also, and is up around 4%. We're seeing strong support at the 50 day MA, so we may see further upside into the final day of trade for the week, tomorrow. We'll be watching the SPY closely for a break below the 50 day MA, which would also see the white channel break. If I dare say it, I'm going to call the top of the megaphone as the next major support, and my friends, if it breaks, the 100 day MA (354.90) comes into play, and then it's straight shot to 340, and then the 200 day MA at 333.50. Resistance overhead at the 21 day EMA. Thanks for your time today guys, I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Don't forget to join us over at the Hedge of the World website as we disseminate the day's price action in our live daily play-by-play to begin shortly. Remember, expect the unexpected. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
5
VIX held the key to the heads up for a cliff hanger...Seen here is the VIX chart, and notably, two segments are highlighted. First the Green box where VIX dropped to 21 as SPX rose higher. However, later on, in the Red box area, a siumilar rise to the same level was not concomitantly seen with VIX retracement. In fact, the VIX was resilient in holding its ground at a higher level. Subtle, but very significant. A good learning point and we should see more of such... usually the downside moves are significant under these circumstances.
CBOE:VIX
by Auguraltrader
Traders Cautious Ahead of Fed MeetingGlobal Futures are notably in the red on Wednesday ahead of the Fed's January FOMC rate decision. The US majors are trading down around 1%, with the Russell taking a beating, and down over 2%. European and Asian markets are leading the way lower, with the Dax down as much as 2.25%, and the Hang Seng down around 1.5%. Vix is being heavily bid as one might expect, we hit a high of 27.76 moments ago, and we're still looking strong at a 27 handle as we approach the open. The dollar (DXY) is breaking out again, and we're currently sitting above the descending trendline, just shy of the neckline on the IHS we've been observing lately. In rates, the 10Y yield continues to lose steam, as we approach the 50 day MA at .96%. We're currently sitting just below the 21 day EMA at 1%. The Put/Call ratio is a complete disaster with historical skewness being a concrete predictor, each trading day, of contiued complacency among investors. We're hovering around 44 in pre-market trade. Gold is down notably on the week, but holding onto recent gains - we're sitting at $1,842/oz as of 9AM. In Crypto, Bitcoin continues to take a beating, and we're back at 30K handle once again, with plenty of room to the downside. Ether is also down big on the week, and is down over 10% at $1,237. The volatility in the crypto space is very attractive, but trading with caution is the name of the game. SPY is set to open below the upper band of the white ascending channel, which should bring the 21 day EMA into play at 377.75. If this level is captured, we may see some support, just as we've seen each previous time the bears capture this key support. However, a clear break would put the bottom of the white channel back in play and the 50 day MA around 370. Thanks for your time today guys, I hope you enjoyed the analysis. It's shaping up to be an excited day of trade, so stay tuned as we disseminate the day's price action in our live daily play-by-play to begin shortly (link to the website in profile). Remember, expect the unexpected. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
32
THE NEXT WAVE OF VOLATILITYMarket volume is drying up and we're seeing historic put:call ratio's on the indices. We have the necessary ingredients in the cake for a another wave of volatility to hit the market. Please see my previous post about the VIX and the compression patterns that often occur. Volatility tends to get bottled up and then erupt. We are likely in a bottling-up zone where fear is gone, and all is calm.. I suppose this can continue but I like to think we're nearing a volatility cycle low. I am of the opinion that the VIX is in a new, giant, price wedge. If you look at this chart, I think (a) will be tagged.. but perhaps it already has? I don't know. It could be now or it could be weeks from now. I'm speculating on the pattern some, but I will be looking to hedge my portfolio with long calls in volatility over the coming weeks.. and even months if necessary. I have learned to completely ignore mainstream news and focus entirely on the data. The math doesn't lie. People do. Something to think about- Let's pretend I'm right about this being a new, giant price wedge. If this forecast turns out to hold water, then the market is likely to go significantly higher over the next couple of years.. I don't want to even mention numbers because this could be a big pattern. Regardless, I'm looking for the next wave of volatility to come rolling in. I've been around long enough to know that the market can creep & creep for weeks or months before pivots. Timing a market top is extremely difficult so one must not be too biased or emotional. Another possibility: What if the VIX is already out of the cage? What if this isn't a new compression wedge? This pattern is my "optimistic" perspective for the markets.. It's possible that the vix could take off like a rocket to new highs where markets completely unravel. In time, the fundamentals WILL take over. I have no idea how much time we have.. all I can do is analyze the data.
TVC:VIX
by gghsusa
8
Global Futures Taking a Beating on FridayHappy Friday, everyone! Global futures are taking a beating on Friday, as lockdowns in Hong Kong, Germany, UK, and across the euro area, tightened further. Traders have been on an absolutely ridiculous risk binge since November (really since March 2020), running straight towards a cliff, and are waking up today to realize they may be on the wrong side of risk. The ECB made mention in their latest statement, that the euro area could be heading for another recession this year. Imo it would be next to impossible for most G20 nations not to take a GDP hit this year, with much the world on lockdown, and the real economy of many of these nations hemorrhaging productivity. Bitcoin continues it's sharp repricing after hitting a recent high of over $40k. We're now back to a $32k handle, after falling as low as a $29k handle in the overnight session. Treasury yields are holding on to recent gains, and the 10Y yield is still hovering around 1.09%. The dollar is holding on to it's recent gains, and seems to be finding some interim support at a 90 handle. We're still watching the neckline just above, along with the descending resistance trendline for indications of a break out. Vix is catching a strong bid this morning, and hit a pre-market high of 23.73, after being hammered back to post March lows yesterday on a more orderly inauguration than expected. Gold is getting smacked again, and is down around 1.28% to $1,841 an ounce. As we mentioned yesterday, we're looking at overbought levels on almost every timeframe across the majors. The QQQ showed an RSI of over 80 yesterday, with the SPY showing an RSI of over 70. The russell is sitting about 25% above it's 200 day MA, which is presenting one of many fantastic opportunities for traders to profit off a potential imminent market-wide correction. After hitting new ATH's this week, key levels to watch on SPY today are the 50MA (h) around 380, which is converging with the upper band of the white channel, and also the 21 day EMA at 375.79. Then, the bottom of the white channel around 368.12 could be in play, where the 50 day MA is also sitting. It's been a while since we mentioned the megaphone pattern, but it's sitting around 361, and based on this morning's price action, it looks like the bulls may lose this important support very soon. As always, I appreciate your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. If you're interested in our live play-by-play, come join us over at the Hedge of the World website (link in profile). Cheers, Michael. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
S&P 500 at the top of the channel - Looks overboughtS&P made a strong rally to the top of the rally channel. Broke above practically all my resistance lines on all my charts. I am see a strong sell from my SPX indicator and a buy on my VXX. Sometimes my indicator can trigger a little early so it may not be today but sometime in the next few days we should see a pull back. The 1d time frame still has not peaked yet, so watch that but it can be a little lagging compared to 4h. Take it with a grain of salt, but tread carefully. VXX
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Dr_Roboto
2
Spy Near All-time High's, Again...It was another gap up overnight (shocking), and like most of you, I'm starting to wonder if markets will ever function normally again. Yesterday, we saw freakish price action in the afternoon session, as markets flat-lined from about 1PM onward. It's been a long time since I saw candlesticks look like a line chart in the open cash market. But, here we are again, my friends, with another gap up overnight, on zero market participation, zero price discovery, and zero logic. The reality is, Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, in her speech yesterday, mentioned the need to take advantage of low interest rates, and not focus on the national debt at this time. The example to households is clear: don't use the free money we created out of thin air to pay off debt, go spend it because interest rates are low, and you don't have to worry about the debt, or even jobs, maybe ever again. Needless to say, I disagree, and I think this is shaping up to be the biggest debt trap of all time. Bank stocks continue to rake in obscene profits as earnings roll in, while Main Street suffers from perpetual lockdowns, and an ever-evolving economic catastrophy. Governments all over the globe are looking to World Bank, IMF, and other large central banks for help, and are being handed a list of orders to abide by, if they want to be awarded the necessary relief funds. In other words, and let me form this as a question, why are banks influencing countries all over the world to enforce lockdowns? And how is it, that while we all suffer, the banks, along with a handful of "lucky" tech giants, reap all the rewards? *Bangs head on wall* SPY is back near all-time high's, and we're poised to open above the upper band of the white channel. Bears never got a chance to defend some of the key levels that were captured last week, as the never ending overnight gaps continue sneaking up to distort price discovery. The Vix contract rolled over so we'll potentially see some selling of risk protection, as investors digest the inauguration, and the most likely scenario, which is that everything goes according to plan. People don't like to think about bad things happening, so they often underestimate the likelyhood of them occuring. However, when we're all being treated like animals in a cage, there isn't much we can actually do to change the course of the future. I hope in the near future, our trust, confidence, and belief that logic will prevail in the end, will help maintain our sanity, and give us the strength to continue to fight back against the pain and suffering we're observing, each and every day. I wish Biden and his Administration luck, and I hope for all our sakes, he knows what he's doing. Key SPY levels to watch today are the all-time high, as I suspect bulls will be testing this level early on in the session in irrationally exuberant fashion, and then the upper band of the white channel (379.50), once again if we see a rejection. We're also watching the 21 day EMA at 374.65. Thanks for your time today guys, don't forget to head over to the Hedge of the World webste for our live daily play-by-play of markets. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
38
Vix Continues to Look ResilientWe're consistently making higher lows, and I suspect this time is no different. Maybe it's just me, but Vix looks incredibly cheap, considering the fact that half of America's GDP has just been replaced with a printer. We're going to run into the long-term descending (green dotted) trendline soon, and Vix will explode. The current policy path is not sustainable, and if Vix is indicating accumulation from institutional (smart) money, then that's what I'm buying. I'm currently holding UVXY, and HUV, along with a couple Nasdaq shorts. I'm paying out the ass in premiums, but I'm working my position so I don't miss the main event. This next "correction" is going to be epic. If anything changes with my positions, or outlook, I'll post an update here for you guys immediately. Cheers! Michael. PS Don't forget to check out the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play of markets.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
23
S&P 500 Channels: 1974, 1994, 2009, 2020If this is not the top, then there is no point in ever selling again as the Fed has completely destroyed the free market. QE has put the market on steroids and every correction from now on will only last as long as it take congress to pass more stimulus. Hope you enjoy the charts and maybe someday resistance lines will matter again. 1974 channel (end of oil crisis) 1994 channel (Netscape web browser) 2009 channel (Quantitative Easing - QE) 2020 channel (Covid and the end of the free market)
SP:SPX
by Dr_Roboto
16