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VXX

Nov Hedge: VXX Calls - 20 Nov expiryI've been thinking of ways to hedge my trades to mitigate risk as my trades are mainly naked sold options contracts. This CALL trade is the first live trade of a hedge theory I came up with. If everything goes well this should expire uneventfully. This Trade is paid for using 15% of the total Premium from the 2 other Nov naked option trades. I bought the strike price as the previous 2 VXX spikes was between 40-50%. Nov Trade structure Trade 1 - SLG sold PUTS is aligned to the larger market direction (Bullish) and is the trade with the largest BP usage (40%). In this case, I did not utilize the full 40% as there was no reason to with my 5% monthly target Trade 2 - JETS ETF sold CALLS is opposite the market direction with a utilisation of 25% BP Trade 3 - Is the hedge. This VXX bought CALL is opposite the larger market direction and is funded from 15% of Trade 1 & 2 premiums I have left 25% BP free in case of margin usage Scenarios If everything goes well, my Hedge should expire uneventfully and I keep the premiums from Trade 1 & 2 If things go bullish, Trade 1 will be good, Trade 2 will be at risk, Trade 3 will be uneventful and Trade 1 will lower the loss of Trade 2 If things go bearish, Trade 1 will be at risk, Trade 2 will be good, Trade 3 will be good and the returns of Trade 2 + Trade 3 will lower the loss of Trade 1 It's not full risk coverage but the aim is to mitigate risk. Let's see how this goes and I'll continue optimizing this.
CBOE:VXXLong
by Ronin_trader
Vol Looking Ripe For A BreakoutHey guys, so vol is holding the 50 day MA, we're now back above the 100 day, and about to break above the first downtrend resistance line (in white) around 28.50. We've been in an uptrend for a week or so, with bullish price action in risk assets. It's important to note that there's upward pressure building in vol, just as more and more investors turn bearish on vol. In other words, vol is not buying the dip (and neither am I). A break above the 200 day MA this week (around 30.43), could see 38 as the next major resistance. Personally, I think we'll see mid 40's (44) before vol starts to look overbought. If the SPY loses major Green line support this week, around 346, (see my most recent post on the SPY below), we could see a rapid deterioration in sentiment, and a seemingly over-night repricing of risk. At the moment, risk is being underpriced, and with markets near all-time highs, it could be a good time to position your portfolio for a large correction (Iran arms embargo ended yesterday, last presidential debate this Thursday, stimulus deadline/sell-the-news event looming Tuesday, earnings, election day 2 weeks away, etc., etc.) The next couple of weeks should be very exciting, so I hope you guys stick around for the action. I really appreciate your time today, and thanks so much for stopping by. Cheers, Michael If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
Is Vol About to Explode?With the majors at all-time high's and vol getting cheaper by the day, let's take a look at what the technicals are saying. With the exception of Monday and Tuesday's close this week, we've been trading above the 50 day MA since the end of August, and the fact that the 50 day is now rising, translates into bullish price action. Today we got a solid bounce off the 50 day MA, and kissed the 100 day MA at 27.20. If we break above the 100 day MA again, the next major resistance is at 30 (200 day MA), then the previous high around 38. In my recent posts, I've discussed the possibility of a head and shoulders pattern playing out on the SPY (S&P), with significant downside if the head is indeed at the 300 (3000) level. After breaking above all major resistances last week, though, the bullish continuation theory gained more traction. After this recent price action, we're witnessing a double top emerging on the weekly, with the all-time weekly high sitting at 350. This is a key resistance level to watch this week, and if we fail to break above, it could determine if momentum shifts to the downside as we approach the election. This could mean major upside for vol in the interim. Risk is not being priced appropriately at the moment, which presents us with an opportunity. Thanks for your time today guys, and have a great evening! Cheers, Michael. If you like our analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile so you don't miss our new analysis and updates. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
[UVXY Volatility Matrix] Rule #1 of Charting: Haters Gon' Hate!People out here actin' like predicting the future is easy! I'm just on my grind layin down some novel trading ideas. Take it or leave it. UVXY definitely caught a right hook to the chin today but as I made clear in my new RSI Model idea, this type of melt down swing dip typically precedes a spike and it could be exactly what we're seeing here given a lot of data aligning for an EOM spike. Not expecting it next week either, higher odds the week after based on how things are shaping up. It's all laid out for ya in the related ideas. The magnitude and exact timing of the next spike is always the trickiest part but odds say we hit the mid-20's at least before EOM and HHs by mid-November (likely due to election chaos of some kind). I'm trying to map the future for you guys here, don't take this sht so seriously! There's more to life than money people. Happy to bide my time and take my learnings while dialing in my Crystal Ball B). Volatility Matrix Analysis Anyway, Volatility Matrix is looking MORE Bullish. We got Entry Windows today for UVXY and and VXX and even VXN (not depicted here) and a LL for UVXY and VIX with both a Small BUY and Large BUY for VVIX. Somethin is brewing here, we'll find out soon!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
13
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Everything Still Lookin Quite Bullish!Got so caught up in SPX I neglected the Volatility Matrix! Haven't even peeked since my last post weeks ago but everything looking great still. We have Large BUYs on all 4 of these + VXN with only one of the 5 having any significant SELL signals, VIX, with a Small SELL and brief Short Entry Window (but still leaning pretty BULLISH overall). This suggests an even greater likelihood that volatility will spike soon and adds more supporting data to my generally BEARISH view of the markets right now.
CBOE:VXXLong
by ProfitHarvest
3