VIX compressionThe vix has a history of forming explosive price wedges. It wouldn't be a stretch of the imagination to say we're forming a new wedge here. Also, I suspect that we're on the verge of a new upward wave in volatility from here- it might just be a lower high in a new wedge. The market has gotten way ahead of itself and there are just too many new traders piling into popular stocks. They are fish in a barrel and the cork is about to get pulled. The sentiment is absurd and we now have some of the lowest put:call ratio's I've seen in my years of trading (shorts squeezed out). I'm hoping for the market to retrace 50% of the last fed rally but I would be thrilled to see lower lows by Nov-Dec. Take a look at the other chart below on VIX weekly timeframe and notice the very clear cycle lows/highs with the sine wave on stoch/rsi indicator.. We're very close!
VXX
VXX/VIX - Looking for move above resistance today?To early to have the latest VX data for the day. However, looking at S&P and NASDAQ outlook for today I am going to say we get a good move to the upside today above the resistance line. If so, then this could setup a new support line and may indicate that VIX is looking for a larger break out later in the week.
VIX/VXX managed to stay above major resistance all dayThe VIX managed to stay above its major resistance level for the entire day to day. That is a very bearish signal that it is ready to make a move. I would assume it may be a large move to the upside given the major trend line, wedge pattern, and major resistance line from February. Too many things in one spot.
VXX/VIXX looking for a breakout tomorrow?Update on my last two VXX ideas. So far everything is going to plan. As I thought, VXX is showing a "double bottom" in correlation to the double top formations showing in the S&P and NASDAQ. Looks like a wedge pattern and consolidating for a breakout. Should be one more small correction overnight or tomorrow morning before it breaks out. Using yesterday as wave 1, then a wave 3 could see a nice 15% upside. No clue what happens after that.
FYI, this market likes to through a curve ball every time I think I have it figured out. I am feeling pretty confident right now after 1.5 months of predicting a down turn and looking a fool. So, time for the market to make me look foolish again ;)
Hope this helps.
VXX/VIX made a move to the upside as predicted BUT will it stickThe VXX made a nice move to the upside today as the wave analysis predicted. It is nice to be right once and a while. It has been quite a while since I made an accurate forecast for VIX.
Now the question is will it keep moving up or will things calm back down again? I personally think the S&P and Nasdaq are headed for a moderate correction over the next few days and that should drive the VXX up more. However, I would not be surprised if we see some form of "double bottom" in the VXX before a more serious move higher. The RSI is showing a bull flag, so that is promising. However, I have been fooled by that before.
Hope this helps and good luck
VXX/VIX Waves - Looking to make a move upNote that I did the waves in reverse for the Vxx since it has an inverse relationship (3 waves up, 5 waves down). If that is true, then looks like VXX/VIX is looking to make a move in the upward direction. Could be a trash idea as I never saw someone use wave analysis like this for VXX.
VXX - Back in Falling Wedge Failed Breakout? Building momentum to eventually break out? Not sure but back in the wedge, combined with the resistance the S&P500 just broke (island reversal from recent times negated), it’s looking like some gaps will be filled downwards. Still looking for 23-25 for a bounce.