VXX
VIX Reaching Full Fib Retrace With today's falling wedge breakout, VIX has moved up to the full 1.0 Fib Retrace level on the downwards channel from March...
Contextually this makes sense, as the fears of a second wave and overbought indices mimic or "retrace" the fears from the first COVID outbreak, albeit muted due to the downward channel nature ...
$VXX fear idea on second wave fearstwitter.com
AMEX:VXX VXX breakout idea based on the second wave fears. If confirms like this over $32
ROLLING: VXX JUNE 16TH 12/17 SCV TO 29/45 SCV... for a .01/contract credit.
Notes: Rolling my deep in-the-money spread (See Post Below) to a setup with a break even around where the underlying is currently trading. Naturally, this dramatically increases buying power effect, as well as risk, since I'm widening from a five wide to a sixteen wide. Will look to narrow the spread via roll out or via roll-down of the long on approaching worthless.
Bulls have been eating fat while we starved on the streetsNext week should give us a weekly TD 9. Equities are in the process of finding a mid term top. I expect Vol to spike in the next few weeks to come.
Cursed images: Bitcoin and S&P 500 Volatility ETF ComparisonAs you can see the two have a clear connection and contribute to each other.
VXX - Supporting SPY Current LongsDescending triangle on the VXX with potential gap to fill below. Levels are marked.
Hedging my bearish stance with the VXXI decided to do a small hedge to mitigate my bearish stance specifically on my 15 May expiring TIF options.
- Sold Calls at a 40 Strike for 2.5 (6 Contracts)
- Covered my short by buying a call at 54 Strike for 0.62 (6 Contracts)
This gives me max earnings of around $1128.
- If the Market Crashes and TIF still doesn't move. My Visa and Expedia Shorts will come in to lock around +1.7K
- If Market stay or continues to range. I will lose a max of $9358. With my hedge saving me abit more than 10%
Best scenario for me is for the market to become bearish with TIFF following it below 15 May haha... sweat...
Selling VXX call - Expiring 27 Jun 2020 Decided to sell covered VXX Calls as i'm pretty unsure about making Industry specific trades as it's very detached from the economy. But what I've learnt so far is that it is not a fact that the market needs to correlate with the economy.
Trading volatility seems like a good idea, as an exercise I have tried to justify two market scenarios.
Market Rises/Range Scenario
- Cities start slowly reopen
- Earnings has companies forecasting the worst of 2020. However investors seem optimistic/lukewarm
- CN could report positive economic news that will encourage positive vibes
- Europe could show positive recovery
- US weekly unemployment numbers are slowing down
- US second stimulus package (May)
- Positive vaccination news
- Lower income consumers are the most impacted. However, that won’t dent investors that deem key stocks as “cheap”
Market Crash
- Europe sinks into a clear recession
- Breakdown of second stimulus package
- CN hits a repeat lockdown or resurgence in virus
- FED keeps pushes dire warnings of economy and this becomes an early warning
- Credit card and mortgage defaults spiral (After Aug)
Trade Risk: $4710
Trade Reward: $1290 (27%)
Win Probability: 73.78%
Two Updates, Downside is Coming (2 of 2): VIXI don't have much to report on this, except to demonstrate that:
1) We may have a small bull flag forming on the daily.
2) A big tell that the last few days "rallies" are fake is that, while the S&P moved to higher highs, the VIX did not move to lower lows. If this were a rally with genuine conviction and confidence behind it, the VIX would fall to lower lows. When the markets do fall, I expect this to rise substantially.
TVIX/VXX signaling a looming spike comingAMEX:VXX
NASDAQ:TVIX
I'll be buying the VXX for cost basis but both are signaling that markets are possibly going to tumble big in the very near future.
target for VXX is $42 and TVIX is 230
VXX gonna test new high next weak
We have noticed that the volatility started has skyrocketed and we expect that it will exceed the previous peak in the next week. I see vxx going to 70 in next weak.
Buy zone : This weak
Sell zone : 21- 22 May
SPY, etc. ~vs~ TVIX / VXX / VIX Must Watch these closely!! Friendly Reminder to All!!
...Well, if you were lucky enough to buy the TVIX before the historic March Market Plunge, and sold it near those highs it produced while most stock markets made their lows, you nailed 1900% gains!!! Also on the 'bargain' priced VXX & VIX = 450% gains!!
Enough said. Watch these Volatility Indexes closely, maybe start accumulating now and hold, -as we see more stock market drops, these can repeatedly 'Moon' again!! (& an added bonus, they can be easily shorted on the way back down!)
$VXX Oversold at Support$VXX Oversold at Support
Good spot for a possible bounce here near term
Educational not investment advice
VIX is Looking RipeFor the bears, the VIX is cramming itself into the bottom of a bullish falling wedge which is part of a larger bear flag pattern. Strictly-speaking it has only been backtesting the perimeter of that flag, testing it for support, so it could pop at any moment.
If anyone asks you, why, dare say, are you not bullish given the enthusiasm the markets are demonstrating, your answer should be: "I am bullish. Bullish on the VIX."
Have a great weekend.
VIX- The best play!Hi
I believe the vix is the best play. Last night we had bad earnings by Amazon which made up the bulk of the sp500. It fell more than 6%. This triggered a cascade of fear in the market. I believe the worst is behind us for the immediate future and the Vix which is based on fear and volatility is like to come down. I have shorted this index before market close. My short term target is at the bottom of the channel and long term target of 15.
Alex
VXX Volatility BreakoutProjected move based on a combination of chart patterns, EW hacks, and implied volatility.
This would obviously imply a move lower Sunday/Monday on ES and SPX.
VIX - Where from hereLast month, I was wondering if it would make it to its all time high at 96. Now, will it just revert to the average in the 20's ? Find a new home in the 30's ? Or get back to the 50's + ? If I had to guess, I would say down some from here, with a chance of popping up at any time. Maybe short with a micro stop loss. But then you got those fees ...
VIX; Bearish on the VIX?HEADLINE: Looking for short confirmation on the VIX
TICKER: VIX
SUMMARY: Waiting to see if the current support level for the VIX will fail and our strategy will confirm a short on the 4 hour.
STRATEGY USED: Momentum Mover
Trend Confirmation = Fractal Trend
Entry Signal = Breakaway Scalper
Exit Signal = Breakaway Scalper OR Orderblock Mapping
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DESCRIPTION:
1. The current trend on the VIX is still bullish according to Fractal Trend (background color Green).
2. Our Scalper went natural (no bar color) March 20th (White line) ending a long signal being given since Feb 21st.
3. The Breakaway Scalper then began having a short bias (red bar color), although this was clearly a good short, our strategy requires Fractal Trend and Breakaway Scalper to agree and thus we have not yet had a confirmed short signal on the 4 hour.
4. Currently we are finding support at the bullish order block at S1.
5. We are looking for S1 support to fail and for Fractal trend to confirm a short trend alongside Breakaway Scalper.
6. If S1 holds we will be looking for a confirmed long bias from Scalper instead and will be looking for a reaction at the bearish orderblock at R1.
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Volatility BreakoutI am bearish equities because I believe this rally has topped, and this VIX chart offers great confirmation to the thesis.
Vix: Get ready for the boomWyckoff, Elliott Wave, and chart trends/patterns. Because you can't Long Vix directly, Long something like VXX or TVIX.
VXXThis would be the possibility if SPY follows the projected model. Comments and criticism are welcomed.
