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VXX

es (bear)this is a follow up to my last post, read that one first. ---- Considering what i mentioned in my last post, if the bounce from 3880~3860 is weak, and price begins to flag into the days ahead, this will not be good news for the bulls, but it'll be great news for whoever is ready to catch this short. ---- realistically, if this case is confirmed we can see es below 3000 before this year is over. wait for confirmation, don't jump the gun. nobody knows what comes next, we can only theorize.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
8
30 days of chop.my main target of 4300 has been hit. --- exactly 30 days from today, a majority of all of the puts in this market will expire worthless. there is tens of millions of far otm contracts across the board. majority of the stonk market is apparently short 👀. majority of the market also tends to be wrong, every single time. maybe this time is different, but something tells me it's not. --- i'm theorizing the market will chop sideways for 30 straight days, to make sure all of those contracts expire worthless. maybe it puts in another leg up after (if this turns out to be a phase of re-accumulation), maybe it completely falls off a cliff after this ugly chop (if this turns out to be a phase of distribution), but whatever happens - i think it will happen in exactly 30 days from today. if you're on the short side, ponder upon what i'm saying here. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
3
VIX - Miss Mess left for Dead / Call Prems are quite Large The VX Complex comes under duress during Wall Streets Summer Fun Run. Buying is an unprofitable game. UVXY / VXX / SVXY is an assured loss. When UVXY was trading over 11, I warned one trader off the Calls prior to the plunge, suggesting it would trade to 9.09 and likely knife right through it. Tis the season for the Crims to run the table - even collaring the Markets bleeds it out. Buying into Roll from AUG to SEP (M1 to M2) is a loser 86.3% of the time on Any and ALL Rolls, it's quite simple. Don't buy ahead of Settlement on the third Tuesday @ 4 PM EST of every Month unless the VIX is in an uptrend. Even then - it's a lower probability as IF there is Roll Yield the Continuous Contract will need to close the Gap left below... it is basic VIX 101 Trading. We can see that the Roll Yield is significant @ 240 Bips you are giving away on the VIG. Why in the f_ck would you do that? The sane thing to do is this - Look out the Curve on the Term Structure and begin buying out the Curve then moving inward as Contango begins to move into far lower PREM. In SUM you are gambling on 13.3% odds in your favor... Unimpressive at best. It gets worse, the structured POS Products - SVXY UVXY VXX - get train wrecked by the Contango as 100% of SEP is 96% of the VXX on Wednesday... and it is bled out to OCT every day at a little less than 4%... with a Gap Below.... which normally fills this time of year. Here's the exclamation point: Trust VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) - 13.44 -0.17 / Another total POS ETF where traders are subjective to Theft. It IS SOH Time. Here is VX Term Structure and Curve - you may follow it yourselves @ VixCentral.com __________________________________________________________________________ % Contango: M1 11.35% - AUG M2 7.01% - SEP M3 3.61% - OCT M4 0.92% - NOV M5 4.36% - DEC M6 0.44% - JAN M7 0.11% - FEB ___________________________________________________________________________ Wall Street and Money Center Banks know the Equity Rally SLOMO/MOMO and now FOMO off June 16th Lows is a complete fraud. We see this in the Curves Optionally for the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) @ 19.53 -0.67 (-3.32%) Now, pay close attention to what those in know... know. ___________________________________________________________________________ 12/21/2022 VIX Calls - 131 Days to expiration on 2022-12-21 20 @ 7.10 21 @ 6.40 22 @ 6.00 23 @ 5.50 24 @ 5.10 25 @ 4.70 26 @ 4.35 27 @ 4.00 28 @ 3.80 29 @ 3.50 You are buying a $20 VIX Call for $27.00... if yer dumb enough to do so. No, you are not, you buy the Micro VIX VXM out the curve spreading your Risk on TIME. No need to pay a Wall Street Goon huge cheddar for VX participation, ever. Never, ever do this... cuz UVXY SVXY VXX do. Let the ETFs bag hold toxic spreads. YOU DO NOT. This is precisely why these ETFs spend 86% of their lives in a downtrend reverse split after reverse Split. Had you bought 1 Share of UVXY Reverse Split adjusted when it began trading... you would have paid $1,000,000. It is the same with SOXS SDOW and all the rest of these underperforming and Very Toxic Inverse ETFs. The Markets can trade sideways for weeks... they will continue lower due to their Derivative components. VTS - Brent Osachoff on YouTube has a great deal of educational videos to bring you up to speed, feel free to ask questions here after you've done yourself the EDU - is vital to your success. Knowing when to strike and when to do absolutely nothing. I hate to see people robbed by the House who has it entirely rigged against you.
TVC:VIX
by HK_L61
15
es 8-10 update ~good morning, i'd like to be bearish, but it's not advised to go against the flows of nature. here's three scenarios i currently see at play in this general area~ --- 1. the green (the bull) - this case will confirm that a bottom was created and we successfully were able to put 5 waves up to create wave (1) of a higher degree, wave 2 would pull back 50~60% of this entire move up, then we'll see a rally to $6000 after. (this would truly be the least expected scenario, as the world enters into a recession, quantitative easing begins, and the markets roar to all time highs on pure euphoric madness, just because they can). --- 2. the red (the easy bear) - this case implies that the market fails to create 5 waves up, and is terminated after the initial 3 wave move next move out of this is to 3500. (most probable). --- 3. the blue, 5 waves up is created, but the market is unable to maintain structure and breaks the lows. the 5 waves up is counted as an expanded flat, and a target between 3300~3500 becomes a magnet. (least probable). --- which ever case plays out, there will be a trade on the opposing end. for now, i think it's best to wait for confirmation unless you're already in, and don't forget to take profit o/ let the market show you where it wants to go, and simply go with the flows of nature 🌊
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
VXX Looks like we located a potential market anomaly on the daily timeframe. As we approach a potential end to the A/C wave, there looks to have been a sign of weakness as we have a few candles during the most recent a/c wave that are giving us some information (Bullish candle/bearish volume). Since then we have seen price start a small bullish move. Looks like an expanded flat where are at now. The MacD is starting to shift momentum towards the upside and would love to see a crossover while price attempts to reach up to 50%-70% of the previous wave (wave B) high. An impulsive wave would be an early Christmas. Happy trading!
CBOE:VXXLong
by Redimere_91
es 8-3 update ~good morning, by the looks of it, the bulls are in complete control. while the media feeds the masses fear, doom + gloom, the big boys are buying up everything. bears keep shorting, market maker keeps squeezing. until the last put expires worthless, this thing is going to continue pushing up in my honest opinion. ---- i've two paths on my chart, red path is the simple path 4360ish before pivoting down for the next big leg (less probable) green path seems most probable, b wave takes the shape of a larger 3 wave move goes on for a few more months --- which ever path plays out, just remember - we came down in 5 waves, and what starts in 5, ends in 5. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
1
When is VIX a buy? Is this a good time to buy?The truth is that it is a buy whenever the VIX gets close to 20. Since November, and especially since the war in Ukraine broke out, I've said that the VIX below 20 is a steal. The VIX has just had a mini jump because of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, but if nothing happens between the US and China, it could fall lower. Personally believe that stocks have another 7% higher to go, which could crush VIX below 20 for a while. However, I think this would be a bear trap and a great opportunity for bulls to go through long volatility. In the short term, stocks could correct a bit more before going higher, which could cause the index to go up a bit, though I don't think a big breakout or anything like it is coming. My long-term goal (6-12 months) remains 45-50 on the index, but it needs some time to get there, and it must inflict even more pain on all those who have been holding puts over the last year.
TVC:VIX
by BitcoinMacro
VXX (VIX ETN) hints yet again of increasing volatilityRushing this out before market opens... The VIX index is rather special (to me) and it is not feasible to use usual technical analysis on that chart IMHO. So, I use the VXX (VIX ETN) for a better idea when volatility spikes might occur. Am observing one just now with an apparent alignment of weekly adn daily factors in the charts. On the weekly chart, noted that there was previously a bullish divergence where the VXX kept going lower whilst the MACD (left lowest bottom panel) crept up. Noted that when we had the MACD crossover, the following week(s) come with volatility spikes. There is an early indication that we might see a MACD crossover this or next week, suggesting that August would be volatile. The candlestick formed last week gapped up, attempted to close the gap, but closed at the high. This is a rather bullish candlestick, and an identified wedge breakout just might happen this week. The daily chart uncannily bears (pun not intended) a similar pattern, but with more details, as the last day of last week closed in a similar looking candlestick, along with a gap up (that attempted to close and reopened), as well as a MACD crossover. These MACD crossovers in 2022 have been marked, last posted about this on 12 Feb 2022, which saw a period of higher volatility. Then formed the identified wedge, and bouncing off the wdge support twice, this time, it suggests that volatility is about to spike, and would probably breakout of the wedge. Taken together, this uncanny alignment forewarns of clear and present volatility for the weeks to follow... Having said that, I suspect that this is might be a short and sharp spike that could end the bearish status for a couple of months until we get into 2023. That's another discussion altogether. Meanwhile, hold on to your pants, be ready for the volatility storms!
CBOE:VXX
by Auguraltrader
1
es 7-29 update ~good afternoon, as of today, my bear idea has lost most of the probability which it had. it's still possible, just less likely. --- looking at the move down from ath as a completed 3 wave move. weather it's wave (w) or a completed correction is not yet known, but we will know in the month ahead. --- looking for a pullback which starts next week, and goes on into the middle of august, after which another upward move going into september. how high that move goes is unknown for now, but things will become crystal clear very soon as more data presents itself.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
es 7-25 update ~good evening, --- been thinking about this count today, and i think this correction is going to get larger before seeing new lows. theorizing that the recent three wave move we saw was wave (w) of a higher degree, the pull-back which is to come between july 28th ~ august 12th will be wave (x) and the move up will be wave (y) which takes us up into the 4200 area. --- i do think we will make a new low after wards in a very aggressive manner, but it's going to take time.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
VIX - CASH Index during Summer Doldrum PivotThere is a substantial opportunity setting up for the Cash VIX, Calls are obviously higher into Friday's RT, but should be followed out to and through Feb 2023 at the 25 and 35 Levels. The Arbs are beginning to stretch the Bands to extremes, this almost always provides an outsized opportunity at Levels. 24.30 Was the July Futures Contract Support which traded 3 times within the 24-hour period prior to settlement. The August Blended Continous Contract failed its Support within the 25.80 to 29.30 implied range on the M1/M2 Settle. Protection is absent on longer-term Timeframes for Retail. VIX trading has been limited to Intra-Day scalping for the majority of Volumes. Support for Cash extends off the 4th pivot @ 21.25 and then to 20.425 where Entry should be targeted. Operators can bleed out VX this time of year and quietly accumulate out months, which is what they will do when it is time. ______________________________________________________________________ When the Levy Breaks the VX Complex will run back to All-Time Highs. Our next Crash to lower lows is setting up nicely. 44.44 is the implied Daily extension overhead, it remains valid as the Summer clubbing begins to unravel. Mean Reverting Indices is a relative comparison... VVIX is closing in on 83,58 pivot. Where do you get the best move based on VX... VIX CASH layup trade - IMHO. _______________________________________________________________________ Good Luck with entries ~!
CBOE:VIX
by HK_L61
2
es 7-21 update (bullish projection)in my previous post, i shared my primary bearish projection; in this one, i'll talk about my primary bullish projection. --- i have shared this idea recently via: --- my only problem is our indicator, and a few other factors. i've lowered the probability for this mid-term bull case to about 10%. raising the probability for my mid-term bear case to about 90%. --- if this was to play out though, i'd be looking for a downward pivot around the same zone: between 4040~4120 >followed by a dip to that 3800ish range, >before seeing an expansion to anywhere between 4200~4300 --- ps. i forecast the long term bottom to be in near the middle\end of 2023 ps2. it will be a historical buying opportunity once this correction is completed. ps3. i'm not necessarily attached to either of these ideas, will play whatever the market gives; i just like to be ready for either outcome, just in case. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
es 7-21 update (bearish projection)good evening my peoples, --- it was just last week when i called out this trade, didn't expect us to get up here so quickly. 👇 --- in the post above, i was targetting 4000~4040, but i'm moving my target up a tad. w4 target = $4105.25 --- ps. it's possible the top was in today - so if price starts moving sideways, it could become a phase of distribution before they dump it. ps2. i think the downward pivot will come on 7\28. ps3. this bearish projection is my primary.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids