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VXX

SPX Note 22/06/22The index behaves uncertainly. Tuesday's rise turned out to be a sham. Delta flows were negative or neutral all trading day. The DIX showed a decline on the upside. For a sustained rally we need to buy calls, which we are not seeing for the next few weeks. Volatility sellers are not very active either. VXX again took the lead in dark liquidity by yesterday's session. These factors cast doubt on the SPX growth, at least for now. We would like to see a retest or an update of the low of the index, if the opportunity arises. P.S. Due to the positive correlation with the cryptocurrency, we might expect the same actions from the BTC.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UnknownUnicorn32592850
es 6-17 update pt.2after todays close, it looks like es is in an ending diagonal. >each lower low will create bullish divergence. >price contracts \ enters into a squeeze. >larger time-frame oscillators get a chance to completely reset. >most people get shaken out. >this is a form of accumulation by the big boys. --- the finishing move can be a capitulation, potentially to 3500(maybe just below) - but i do wholeheartedly expect 3550 to hold at the end of the day. this is one of the most important levels in my opinion, and we will see a massive reaction from it. --- ps. be on a look out for my macro spx video, will release it one of these days when i have some extra time. have a wonderful weekend 🌴
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
1
es 6-16 update ~es ended up rejecting close to the level which i talked about in last nights post - kinda surprised it didn't make it up those last few points. you know what this means though? weakness. --- there's a notable pull wall at 3600, and a notable call wall at 4280 expiring on june 30th, which was opened by jpmorgan. these are our major support \ resistance levels going into the next two weeks. the walls can be moved up \ down accordingly to adapt to the changes which are currently taking place behind the scenes. --- our group capitalized on that fomc fake out yesterday \ moved to cash overnight. looking for a fairly larger opportunity in the weeks ahead. --- cash is still king, short term scalps are the only way to trade the current market condition. trade safe, practice proper risk management and have a blessed rest of your week 🤝
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
S&P testing last line of defence before CollapseFRED:SP500 S&P is going to test the most important level for this year. If this level gets broken we can look for another retest of previous lows which are not close. This level not holding means a significant decline for both crypto and stock markets as they are already surging downwards and there is already PANIC on the horizon. The fundamental events that will take place this week and possible increasing interest rates will be the key factor here. Check out our previous post where we made more than 200+ pips shorting the S&P and much more profits buying the VXX the week before that. Don't forget to FOLLOW so you get informed about the next big move and ways to play it out from our channel.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Elite_Forex
es 6-13 update ~good evening folks, es appears to be in what looks to me like a falling wedge. i've come up with two trajectories for it this week. 👇 1. the bull (portrayed in green). -if the low from may can succesfully hold, without being violated - there is a slim chance for us to see a bullish continuation to the upside. potentially up to 4300. -few more levels above this level, if it can successfully push through it. -this could happen if jpow says something nice on wednesday. -we have a full moon on june 15th (a historical bullish indication for the markets). -we also have a max pain on spy contracts at $422 for 6\17 opex; price could theoretically gravitate up there (but it doesn't have to). -85% of the market is currently bearish, which could result in a short squeeze if given the proper circumstances. -4h hidden bullish divergence is currently present. -little bonus, our high time-frame indicator is calling a buy down here. --- 2. the bear (portrayed in burgundy). -if the low from may is breached, a rapid mark down in price can occur. -there is two significant targets which i have had in mind for awhile. -3175 -3635 --- this week could be very eventful, as we have quite a few things on the schedule: -triple witching -vix expiration -jpows speech, -full moon -and probably so much more. --- ps. i am cautiously bull-ish. trade safe, and have a blessed week o/
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
VXX - Amazing time to load on more VXX!-VXX being limited from Barclays is already high, higher than it normally should be. -Any smart investor should take the great opportunity VXX offers. Not only its deemed to drop in the long term due to SPY's overall statistical tendency to rise, but also at some point Barclays will print them more, and then it will drop even more aggressively. -Print them puts or open some short calls Ladies and Gents! OUR EXPECTATION: We think VXX might rise a little more from this point on due to SPY dropping lower and lower, but its good to start shorting now and slowly adding on each rise in VXX.
CBOE:VXXShort
by caldooninvestment
3
SPX Note 10/06/22The index is out of its weekly range, "reacting" to the ECB monetary policy decision and the CPI. It doesn't matter though, the news doesn't tell us much. The index was looking for a driver and it found one. From yesterday's note ... "But it's worth noting that there have been purchases of VXX in the dark pools over the past few days and increased interest in 30-strike VIX calls. Traders are hedging their positions against a possible decline"... Buying in dark liquidity gave a hint of a possible decline, which is what we ended up seeing. Another thing worth noting is that traders are protected from tail risk by buying puts on the SPX and calls on the VIX. Therefore, a market collapse will not follow. But the increased volatility will persist. Influence of the negative gamma. The 4000 strike remains the most important, which will be a magnet for the price. Buying the index in the dark is still high. Gamma exposures are already in a zone where we should expect at least a small counter-move. It is worth observing the dynamics of the indicators. Index made the maximum expected weekly move. It is currently trading in the range of 3960-3970. Further declines only increase the SPX growth scenario. On hold...
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn32592850
SPX Note 9/06/22The index continues to trade in a narrow range. From a previous review ... "Options traders do not look for high index prices and sell calls and buy puts when the price approaches 4,200."... ... "The 4,100 level is a trigger for rising volatility, and in Friday's session, volatility sellers successfully defended this level...". Nothing has changed since then. We have big gamma strikes of 4200 and 4000. A likely scenario would be a price approach to one of the strings before expiration. The VIX, meanwhile, has declined with the SPX sideways movement. ... "Options traders have large put positions below current values, so I do not expect the VIX to rise."... But it's worth noting that there have been purchases of VXX in the dark pools over the past few days and increased interest in 30-strike VIX calls. Traders are hedging their positions against a possible decline. The index may start to move out of the range in the coming days, and the driver could well be the CPI.
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn32592850
es 6-6 update ~good afternoon, after further observing price action today, i feel fairly confident that we will see one more leg up to around $4300. this leg will put in a 5th wave in the local impulse. (which for now will be labeled as wave A) --- price action is currently contracting within a triangle \ bull flag up here. sentiment is mixed, but the whole structure fits the narrative of one more rip up. it may cut short at 4250ish, but ideally a push to 4300 would seal the deal. --- based on how we pull back after, will determine where price shall go next. --- ps. if the local low from friday is breached, a door can open for a push down to 4070ish, before we go for the final push up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
1
Spx500Refer to my Nasdaq post for a comprehensive deep dive into what this structure is, and how you can decipher it using the simple guidelines (if that's something that interests you). --- to keep things simple; i'm expecting some kind of B wave to play out in the days ahead. it can take the shape of quite a few different patterns. could be a triangle: a flat: or a simple zig-zag: let the market show you what it wants, then simply adapt to the changes. 👇 >after this local b-wave is completed, a move up to $4300 is anticipated. >there is a significant call wall up there, so it likely won't go much higher than that zone (+\-5) 👇 >Once the local move up is completed >a decline to $3500ish is expected >leading into september (where i think this correction will be completed).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
What can I expect from SPX before it is exp?Greetings All! On the eve of the VIX and SPX futures expiration we can expect a rather calm market. The main open interest and the maximum negative gamma is located at strike 4000, which acts as support for the market. The maximum positive gamma is located at the 4200 strike, which is the main resistance. Options traders do not look for high index prices and sell calls and buy puts when the price approaches 4200. The 4,100 level is a trigger for rising volatility, and in Friday's session, volatility sellers successfully defended this level. Options traders have large put positions below current values, so I do not expect the VIX to rise. Sentiment in the dark liquidity market is more than optimistic. The DIX index hit an all-time high on the SPX decline and has generally been in the buying zone for a long time. Looking forward, this is a positive signal for the stock market, and we can see how institutional investors are set up and where to expect the index going forward. There are two trading weeks left before the SPX expires, and the market probably won't show us anything interesting during that time. In the meantime, I interpret traders' behavior as "pressure on the index with the potential for further growth in the medium term."
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn32592850
Volatility is contained, but for how long?Despite the Russia-Ukraine war, despite inflation being at record highs, the DXY making a new high since 2015-2016, the bond market being in its largest bear market and with equities down 20-30%, the VIX hasn't really spiked yet. So far volatility has been contained and every time the VIX would get overbought at 35 or above, it would slowly get back down. However I don't believe that it can get much lower without spiking first. In the short term it could get down to 20, but given the current circumstances, it is very hard for me to imagine that the top for the VIX won't come at around 48 or above. It is also very hard for me to imagine that it would get significantly below 20, therefore going long the VIX at 20 or below is a great strategy until the Fed pivots. However once it gets to 48 or higher it is time to start going long everything as the Fed is probably going to step in and try to save markets.
TVC:VIXLong
by BitcoinMacro
1
es 5-26 update part #2here is another idea, which would imply another move to the downside. may 30th, is the day a new moon appears in the sky - new moons are historically very bearish for the markets. there is a great possibility that spy goes lower using the current bounce as a wave 4. could look for a rejection from either the 0.382,0.50,0.618,0.65 (when pulling a fib from the low, to the top of wave (2). if this was to play out, wave 5 target would sit between 3672~3644.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
es 5-26 update part #1spy, breaking through some key levels this morning. flow looks decent, most peoples are short. a squeeze was bound to happen. --- the question is, will it continue, or is this yet again another dead cat bounce? --- taking a look at how the es1! came down, it was in a perfect 3 wave move 5-3-5, labeled as an a-b-c (potentially the first of three). a closer look at the daily structure, and a clear sign of demand down here through these elongated wick; --- i feel this situation should be approached with total caution, considering we're in a fairly large downtrend, but there is a pretty nice potential for follow-through in the weeks ahead. my target for this move would be roughly at 4278.75~ 4431.25, which will likely be reached through another simple zig-zag (5-3-5) \ (a-b-c). If, big if - the target is reached through a 5 wave move instead, then we can safely assume that a significant bottom has been put in, and a new high could potentially be created in the many months to come. 💰 I do have one more idea as to what could potentially be going on, and i'll share it in my next post.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
spx $5000my buddy @bowtrix got me thinking; -inside buys are are the highest levels they've ever been at since the covid lows. -our proprietary indicator is calling out a weekly buy on the spx for the first time in history. -we haven't been this oversold since 2011. -everyone is bearish, every single person. --- i think the bottom is very close to being in, if it hasn't been put in yet. we could get as low as 3700 theoretically, which is the midline of this 12 year bull channel. targeting 5700~6000 for the next bull run, and i have begun positioning myself for it. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by notoriousbids
2