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VXX

VXX short using weekly put optionFundamental Analysis Taking advantage of the recent volatility tracked by the VIX, and using VXX ETF for exposure to the VIX Future. Recently the market is poised to move into bearish territory with rampant inflation and the Feds hands tied in making monetary changes swiftly. Technical Analysis Chart is forming a double-top pattern in the making. MACD cross of May 10th approaching zero level. Stochastics approaching 20 level. Chart forming a wedge pattern hovering around 38% retracement. RSI hovering around 50 level and below 14-day SMA. Awaiting further confirmation Looks like a 40% chance at the moment of this publish for the short to succeed. Using stop-loss to manage risk.
AMEX:VXXShort
by ashpat86
VXX moving sidewaysDespite the recent volatility in the tech sector, the S&P 500 VXX is still operating as if in a low volatility environment. VXX is a good hedge for a portfolio but technical analysis is showing sideways momentum, with key resistance levels at 30.18 still not broken. This low volatility in general can help in getting in at a cheaper price for when volatility does kick into full gear, or to purchase a longer-dated call option for when volatility does kick into high gear.
AMEX:VXX
by ashpat86
VXX - The only safe haven we have!-Lads and gents, don't even bother yourself with pointless technicals and fundamentals, right now the market has nothing to offer you all except uncertainty. -While VXX on the other hand has the amazing opportunity as it is no more supplied, so limited supply + rising volatility due to the market condition, create this one-time opportunity to load on them vertical/naked shorted calls! Sell as many as you can for 40-50 day period. -Once they will start printing vxx again and spy will slowly find a support, vxx will drop like a rock
AMEX:VXXShort
by caldooninvestment
es 4-17 update~good evening, the market conditions have been quite rough recently, but i have a good feeling about what is to come. i'm going to make a little video most likely talking about a very bullish scenario after this little correction here is completed. --- locally though, i'm eyeing 4326 as a local bottom before we see a three wave push to around 4520. from there i think es falls one last time to 4200. if that zone could hold, my bullish theory will be supported, and we'll see some pretty big things going into the second portion of this year. have a great week, and trade safe 💰
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Eloquent
2
new high 💣?good evening peoples, been taking a peak at several of these charts, and things are looking absolutely primed for a massive move up despite the things going on in the world right now. i get that there's a war, rate hikes, inflation, etc; but hear me out. --- everyone and their uncle is trying to short the market right now- there's like 85% puts vs 15% calls. --- >if i was market maker, >i'd run this thing all the way up to make a new high just to make the headlines. >shake out all the bears 😈 >when they sell their puts for a loss, i buy them for a 90% discount. >then i dump the market into the abyss 🔻. --- Expanded flat (Wave B) target = 4858.75 Wave C target = 3950. just a theory, not financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Eloquent
11
VIX - q1 2022 ReviewLevels I am Observing: Green horizontal = weekly lvl Pink = yr open Light Blue = last month open Blue = Range lvl high/low Black = local swing high/low Red = daily / 4 hr SR flip Flow I am observing (via unusual whales) VIX & VXX = most active chains & highest OI - some 4.20.22 otm $30c-$40 & 5.18.22 $75c high OI, recent activity on 4.20.22 $50c & 60c (BULLISH for VIX), highest OI chains 7/10 are BEARISH biggest option trades = some $1m+ Bullish prints on 4.1.22 but pretty mixed VXX (Currently @$25) most active chains & highest OI - 4.8.22 $60c & $83c (Bullish for VIX) ; highest OI chains 9/10 are BEARISH Biggest options trades 4.1 = some mixed flow but skewed bullish with some significant floor prints $1m+ Dark Pool Prints - there was a lot of volume 3.8 and 3.9 in the $27-$28 range... fishy what happened then on 3.15... but as of late there has not been significant dark pool volume Price action So far we have seen significant movement and violent trend changes... Jan finished the month up 40% and had a $22.60 range Feb finished the month up over 29% and had a $17.79 range March finished the month down almost 30% and had a $17.84 range Jan bounced off yearly open, range high set at $38.94 Feb higher low put in at $20 area, lower high put in at $32.50, mid march trend change End of March, broke Feb lower high, currently down trending / consolidating below 13ema on daily ... Potential bear flag or h break down forming We are in a downtrend, yet there is some interesting flow here bullish short term with some very OTM risk on April dated exp. Historically, April is good for equities... I am anticipating more downside = Look for entries to short, short weakness or breakdown on price break down, target 1 yr open $17, target 2 Jan range low $16.34 ; if consolidation, there is good R/R to upside if we reclaim $21.30 (or find support QUICKLY off $17.60 or $16.34) I may look to get long to the local swing high at $23.04 and $24.57 Invalidation levels on VIX, last range low was around $29 and swing high at $33, BULLISH PA at $25.50 would worry me depending on how $23.04 (2021 open) and $24.57 (Feb open) react if tested soon.
TVC:VIX
by TheZooKeeper
Is the cash VIX giving us a reversal sign?The cash VIX at the end of June 2021 found very strong support at 15 and could not close below. Since that timeframe we've seen higher highs. Since Nov 4, 2021 the cash VIX has made higher highs and lower highs and is therefore in an uptrend until we make a lower low. The VIX uptrend can also be seen when zooming out on the weekly and monthly chart. Yesterday, the cash VIX had an "inside" day. I thought it would be interesting to study what happens to the VIX after an inside day. The orange circle's on this daily chart are "inside" days. As you can see they give an indication that a reversal is coming...sometimes the reversal happens immediately and other times it takes a couple days but in general, based upon my analysis, it's been a fairly reliable signal in the last 9 months. If you follow the VIX then you also know that VIX gaps generally get filled fairly quickly...most of the time very quickly but some can take a couple of weeks to months. Very, very few take years. I'm showing the following gaps have not been filled: Upside Gaps: 45.40 (April 20, 2020) 35.01 (March 8, 2022) 33.39 (March 15, 2022) Downside Gaps: 19.98 (Feb 9, 2022)
TVC:VIX
by Vixtine
7
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 1 Apr Expiry (Apr Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I purposely ended my March trades last week because I felt this week would be super volatile given the Fed announcements on interest rates. This play turned out well as I got to write VXX calls that end 1 Apr at an amazing price On the 15 March, I noticed that the VXX had stopped correlating with the market and I believe this had to do Barclay suspending new share creations of their VIX Short Term futures ETN (VXX). In a statement, the bank said it ran out of issuance capacity for the two products and would halt new creations indefinitely. It claimed the halts were not a result of the war in Ukraine This divergence, allowed me to quickly write VXX Call options that expires 1 April at $3 a contract. I decided to use a smaller Margin (50k) because it is still a VUCA global situation and I wanted to have room to maneuver. I have also never seen the VXX diverge so drastically before. I also believed that the Fed’s announcement would already be factored in to the past weeks and current volatility I Feel Pretty damn good, the VXX as aligned back to the market and right now the market is pretty bullish. Lengthen my distance to strike. Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side This trade is very opportunistic in timing and volatility. There is no way I would take the other side given the price movement. Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer The risk of this was the unknown of why the VXX was diverging from it’s original intention and what the implications where. Look For New Information I did a search to understand what was going on with the VXX, but I decided that it was better to look and based my decision on the current sentiment of the market. How Do I Feel Now I am very very happy with this play as it mitigated risk by having a shorter time frame, high contract price and also leveraged my understanding and tracking of the market’s key events. Trade Specs Sold 60 Calls @ 3.00 - Strike 58 % to Strike 41% ATR 98% BP used 51k Max Gain: 18k
AMEX:VXXShort
by Ronin_trader
Most Overlooked Opportunity of 2022 - VXXHi Everyone, Excited to share some good news for our fellow options traders! -One of the market's most popular instruments, $VXX, recently underwent an anomaly of an event that hasn't occurred in over 10 years in the volatility-trading space. On March 14, 2022, Barclays announced a suspension of share sales and issuances on the iPath® Series B S&P 500® VIX Short-Term FuturesTM ETNs (BATS: $VXX). -Generally speaking, the $VXX is built to track the first- and second-month VX futures on a rolling basis. Barclays, the issuer of $VXX, doesn't actually hold underlying futures contracts to maintain the ETN, rather, it tracks the performance of the underlying futures contracts on a rolling basis. The product that the ETN tracks is known as the net asset value (NAV) or "indicative value" of the underlying ETN. Issuers use NAVs as a metric to match their ETN prices to their NAV. Essentially, in order for Barclays to maintain the publicly traded product, they match long and short order flow on their ETNs. For example, if a trader wanted to buy 1,000,000 VXX ETNs in one transaction block, Barclays will usually issue 1,000,000 shares of VXX to keep the price of the ETNs the same. On traditional shares of stock, however, 1,000,000 shares of stock in one transaction block could change the stock price due to an increase in demand and a shortage of supply. Equities, unlike ETNs, do not issue shares of stock for order flow to keep the price of the security at its NAV. Whereas, ETNs generally issue notes to keep the ETN price at its NAV. -Considering that Barclays is no longer issuing shares for their $VXX ETNs, long order flows will not result in the issuance of new shares. So, what does this mean? Let's say you purchase 1,000,000 shares of stock, similar to the equity example made in the last paragraph. The purchased shares are no longer issued by Barclays to keep the price of the ETNs at their NAV. Rather, the existing market participants must sell their 1,000,000 shares of stock to you. Due to the increase in demand, the price of the ETNs will increase past their NAV.
AMEX:VXXLong
by caldooninvestment
7
NASDAQ 100: Read the descriptionNasdaq 100 bounced back from the lows of 12950 and had trouble with staying under the 13000 level. Put call ratio for the market (PCC) have been falling, which indicates more calls are bought than puts. Looking at the past levels of the ratio it seems likely that the ratio is ready for mean reverting at this point. However put/call for equities (PCPS) are high, and could also be ready for a move lower while the general market put/call moves higher. Notice that the last weeks increase have not caused the put/call for equities to rise as much as previous when prices of nasdaq increased. this could again indicate that investors are less desire loading calls. Inflation expectations are still high (RINF), and FED indicated 6 more rate hikes to an expected federal funds rate of 1.9% end of year. VXX have been falling as a result of the increased price in stocks. But we could still see higher levels of VXX on the basis of increasing interest rates, high inflation and lower P/E ratios. High inflation (USIRYY) results in lower levels of consumer and business spending which lead to declining sales higher costs and therefore lower earnings. And a combination of high interest rates and high inflation leads to lower P/E ratio US03MY is also on the rise, and beta values for the 10 largest components of Nasdaq is over 1, which means in bear market, those stocks tend to fall more than the market. High risk free rate (US03MY) and high beta values will increase the CAPM cost of equity which again supports a price reduction in equities. The strategy is the same as before. Short every move higher (when in bear markets, the sudden and unexplainable and dramatic increase in stocks are brutal -this will shake retail out of their positions shorts and longs before moving lower. I still anticipate a move lower for 12000 level as the first low level. (I could be wrong for the move lower, but managing the right leverage will keep one from blowing up account or generating too much drawdown.) Everyone have FOMO right now of missing the bottom. Which is what the big guys want retail to have. Again i dont say that there are no bottom, we could have bottomed out, but when looking at all the indications I am convinced that we still can see lower price levels this year.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
3
Why VXX exploded and what it means for volatility (VIX)One of the big market events today is the explosion in price of AMEX:VXX which according to the issuer Barclays has nothing to do with Ukraine or market events. I think it is tangentially related in some way to the market conditions but what does this actually mean for the near future of volatility? I look at TVC:VIX as a measure of the "fear index" of the S&P500. The VIX can be very useful in timing market tops and bottoms as it represents maximums of emotion. The VIX is telling us something about the current lows of the market and how the recent correction might soon be over.
Editors' picks
AMEX:VXXShort
by norok
28
CAUTION: VXX Is Broken!The pricing of the VIX futures tracking ETN VXX no longer reflects reality. Barclays has halted new issuance of both the VXX and OIL ETNs. Existing shares of VXX are being bid up far beyond the movement in the underlying futures market. As I mentioned in a previous post, (linked below), I believe the VIX is setting up for a breakout to the upside. I strongly caution against trying to trade VXX right now. For one, trading has been halted repeatedly, which may happen again, and you NEVER want to get stuck in a position that you can't trade out of. For another, VXX pricing is no longer tracking the VIX futures, so it's impossible to predict how VXX will respond to a significant move in the VIX futures. When the price action in a market is irrational, technical levels become irrelevant, fundamentals become irrelevant, and you can't expect logical price movements from the market. For example: See the recent price action in crude oil futures (CL1!). One of the most valuable skills in trading is recognizing when not to trade. VXX right now is like a crate of 100 year old dynamite sweating nitroglycerine in the desert heat. DON'T TOUCH IT! Stay safe out there traders!
AMEX:VXX
by iamroot
1
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 11 Mar Expiry (Mar Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I entered this position as I believe that we are currently in a sideways bearish situation. The markets took huge dips since late Nov to Jan and while it has recovered some of that loss. The S&P and especially the NASDAQ show that at least for now, the constant bold bullish days are narrowing Even though I am taking a sideways bearish stance. I still sold calls as we have just gotten out from a terrible 3 months of nose bleed drops and I think there will be some respite where market participants will try to determine what is the next direction Writing calls also allow me to develop a hedge on the other trades which will be bearish I Feel I entered this trade on Monday and it feels almost clinical as it was already part of my plan and the indexes were aligned I would have liked to get a better price to weather some potential volatility but it is a decent price at 0.71 I would have also preferred to have this trade expire on the 4th March way before the mid March inflation implementations Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side I would be slightly worried as the market in the past 2 days have been bullish. Also I did try to initially take a sold PUT trade, but the prices for them and the % from strike were not optimal. I guess the market expects more bullishness? Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer VXX eats alot of margin fast as it is also a reflection of the tech stocks. And that could limit the fund’s movements. Regardless of direction I think with a good 63% of space between the entry and strike is prudent Look For New Information I am accepting that if the market does furiously dip too fast and too hard. I might be in a difficult position. The good news is that the major Tech earnings are over. How Do I Feel Now I neither feel happy or worried. Just somewhat clear but edgy given what we have just gone through in Nov - Jan Trade Specs Sold 125 Calls @ 0.71 - Strike 33 % to Strike 63% ATR 64% BP used is 91k Max Gain: 8875
AMEX:VXX
by Ronin_trader
4