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VXX

EMA Crossover (Not happened since March 2020)Bullish Volatility! 55 EMA has now crossed above the 120. Looking back, this has not occurred since March 4, 2020. The time before that was October 15, 2018!! This is a historically valid pattern. I've been watching this thing for years and now is the time to stack volatility. The Russians are disconnecting from the internet, inflation is only going to get far worse with grain, wheat, and oil prices skyrocketing and the war only increasing. Don't overthink it. Are we entering volatile times? Yes. Is the money printer getting turned off? Yes. Is inflation keeping the Fed from saving things this time?... I can't say they won't try, but I can tell you that they have no control over consumer price inflation like food and gas. Their policies only affect asset prices like houses, stocks, and bonds. They have been able to print money however for the last 13 years because they convinced everyone that they were controlling inflation. No they weren't. The global supply chain and ability to get cheap products in days was what was controlling inflation for the last 20-30 years! WHEN they raise interest rates, it will not lower food inflation because they have nothing to do with each other. The only thing that will help food inflation is a de-escalation in Ukraine. Interest rates effect one's ability to access capital and credit. This ample credit access is not used for food. It's used to buy overpriced real estate and stocks. SO making that access to credit more difficult won't effect food sales, but far moreso house sales.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by MonetaryRebel
1
VXX Strangle Spread ManagementStarted with monthly VXX Strangle 2 strikes wide. As volatility kicked in, sold off the profitable trade (a put) and then used the rest of the time to allow the bearish sentiment to kick in. the problem was a lot of times the option would be reach ITM (In-The-Money), but I would hedge by tightening up the strangle by adding another put once the direction changed. Recently volatility has slightly tamed compared to when Russia initially attacked Ukraine. Using support and resistance levels including price-action to confirm entry and exit points. Using MACD, Stochastics and RSI to guage the sentiment whether it's bearish or bullish. Tightening the Strangle Once the trend reverses, I purchase the other side of the Strangle once the Put-Call ratio is favorable and there are discounts in the options prices (Black-Scholes Model). In February there was very high volatility which led to better chances for profitability. Technical Analysis Always wait for engulfing candles with a confirmation candle or two to spot a trend reversal. Verify this reversal with resistance levels and breakouts in the RSI. Stochastics can be used to view the short-term sentiment. Update - 03-03-2022 Volatility has slowed down so much more patience is needed for the options to go in-the-money. Due to this uncertain investment and political climate, there could be chances for volatility to spike again. Either way, using a Strangle, we just want a strong move either to the upside or downside. General trend for the past 3 days is a bearish trend with no breakouts yet. Tighten the Strangle once direction changes and options prices get cheap. Lessons Learned Sometimes you have to wait for the trade to move in your favor. It's always better to purchase discounted options. Tighten the strangle when it is cheaper to do so and the trend is moving in its favor. Delta and Gamma combined help shape the rewards better than the Put-Call ratio only. Wait for the technicals in the chart to trigger entry points. Always get options with more time than you think you need. Sometimes it takes more time than predicted to minimize losses and be profitable in the long-run.
CBOE:VXXEducation
by ashpat86
Increase in VOLATILITY on the horizon? It's 1120am MST on 2/28, and I am expecting a further market decline. I already have a VXX call option in play right now and am expecting this position will end up in the money. It seems Russia/Ukraine war is starting to heat up despite the meeting between the two countries today. From a technical analysis perspective, there is another inverse head and shoulders forming and the 50 SMA is crossing over both the 100MA and 200MA, which seems to be a bullish indicator for VXX and a bearish indicator for the stock market as a whole. I hope I am wrong on this one...because that would indicate a de-escalation of the war...which we're all praying for.
CBOE:VXXLong
by WealthHunters
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 11 Feb Expiry (Feb Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought Market seems to be ranging with deeper drops. This VXX trade is positioned as a hedge as it takes a bullish market stance. I like this structure of having a broad market hedge and especially a position that expires early in the month. As I would still have a solid feel of the previous month’s sentiment. VXX seems like a good trade for early month as the BP drops drastically as it gets closer to expiry. If price goes against you, the expiring previous month’s trade will release BP to support it. VXX contracts sometimes also have good premium as it spikes more during volatility events For Feb’s VXX entry I will wait until 12 Jan after Jerome Powell’s speech. As that could spike the premiums and provide more visibility on the market direction. I Feel I feel confident on the trade and especially how it fits into the entire trade structure. Taking advantage of the entry and exit timings and the nature of VXX and it’s BP behaviour (It reduces drastically in size, closer to expiry). Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side VXX is also good as it is a market wide counter. Only worry is that it is exposed to the volatility of tech The Omicron news on the 26 Nov drove the price up by 47% to $30, while it did fall after 6 days. The recency and the potential for VXX to increase in a Black Swan event is also a potential and the BP requirements to maintain would be extremely large Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer I don’t expect another super volatile Black Swan event happening in the next month. Especially since knowledge on Omicron and the Fed’s inflation mitigation actions are clearer. But the market movements from Omicron in Dec really scared me and I need to see how I can better shield myself Price is steady downtrending Look For New Information While Omicron has mild symptoms, the high infection rates are hitting businesses even harder because there is a direct impact on labour which are the legs for most businesses. I wondering how this will impact Q1 earnings How Do I Feel Now I feel confident and worry free Trade Specs Sold 123 Calls @ 0.63 - Strike 29 % to Strike 62% ATR % is 67% BP used is 89k Max Gain: 7749
CBOE:VXX
by Ronin_trader
es 2-27 update ~good evening, i initially expected es to go slightly deeper than it had originally did, and did not expect this random move up last week. was quite the short covering that probably caught a ton of people off-guard. --- after a 3 wave move up these last few days, we saw a sharp move down for todays futures opening session. this tells me one thing, es will likely see lower prices, but not before a slightly higher bounce to retrace the entire drop from january. this week might be filled with chop, before seeing follow through to the upside. a move up to about 4530 is expected, before seeing lower prices in the month(s) ahead.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
es 2-23 update ~morning i'll be totally honest, es does not look healthy. it's dangling off the 55 weekly ema, nasdaq is below the 55 weekly ema no real reaction, no absorption, nothing really. ---- here's the thing though, from the second of february es put in 5 waves down so by the textbook, it is required to correct this 5 wave move but since the market is lacking bullish momo, it might take the shape of a flat. a wxy, wxyxz, or an abcde triangle. i think that flat will be a wave B, and we see the final flush into wave C to complete the larger WXY corrective phase which had begun in january. downside target for the completion of the larger corrective phase is a backtest of a 12 year algo target which sits at 3970, estimated time to hit this level = 1 month.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
HEDGE your BTC and ETH positions... VXX is about to MOON?!!!In my opinion, buying a VXX weekly call option is an amazing way to hedge your crypto portfolio against the market volatility resulting from geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns. Unless you live under a rock, you've reeceived incessant push notifications regarding the Russia/Ukraine geopolitical conflict and the inflation-driven macroeconomic concerns. Smart money has already reallocated a sizable percentage of portfolio into stablecoins or cash... But why not CAPTURE ALPHA available from the current market volatility? Inverse head-and-shoulders patterns are used by some traders to call a downtrend reversal. It's not always a reliable indicator. However, it's my belief this indicator is MORE reliable on the with VXX chart- which is perpetually in a long-term downtrend. Look closely at the VXX chart, and you'll see TWO inverse head and shoulders patterns: 1. One forming locally over the past couple weeks 2. One that started forming at the end of January I bought a weekly call option expiring on 2/25 with a strike price of 24. With a target of around 26.50, I'd be shocked if I didn't close this position, or have it expire, IN THE MONEY. Do YOU AGREE or DISAGREE? Let me know in the comments!
CBOE:VXXLong
by WealthHunters
1
Long UVXY and VXX Trading Strategy IdeaThis is for going long UVXY or VXX. I am fine-tuning on systematic approach to trading long volatility. I have back tested the rules below with great results! Please comment and share your thoughts. I traded this several times recently and have done well with it. It is fade-it or half-life approach; decaying position or reverse pyramid, since the underlying is decaying. Take a look at the chart; arrows indicate recent entries AMEX:UVXY . CHART SETUP 195 minute bar chart (split the day into two bars) RSI set to 2 periods MACD - set to 2, 6, 1. (essentially a Moving average cross over) Stochastics Full. 13,3,3 EMA 5 and 8 day EMA. Bollinger bands -standard settings. TTM Squeeze BUY RULES Buy Full position when: - MACD crosses from red to green - above zero line AND - bar close is higher than previous bar AND - Stochastics are trending higher AND - RSI(2) has crossed or is greater than 70 AND - VXX/UVXY price is below the upper bollinger band AND - VXX/UVXY is above the 5 period EMA SELL RULES - 4.1% stop upon entry - sell entire position of MACD 2,6,1 closes red on the day. - sell 50% position on first bar/price trading above the upper bollinger bands - sell 25% of position on second bar/price trading above the upper bollinger bands - sell remaining 25% position upon hard MACD sell signal or discretionary. REPEAT: - repeat and refill full position. For example, if you are down to final 25% position and VXX/UVXY crosses from below to above 5 EMA AND MACD is still green AND price is below upper bollinger band, AND bar close is higher than previous bar close, buy back to full position. Repeat sell rules. Notes: - if you miss a sell signal, sell the bar. for example, VXX traded above the upper BB briefly then below, sell the respective portion of the position. - you may see several trades back to back in high market volatility - I use the TTM Squeeze indicator for direction; histogram trending up? is it green? - This system entry matches up with Heiken Ashi charts buy signals if these are your thing. - the compounding of this strategy works well with 100% re-investment on each trade. - long volatility trades are quick and fade fast. occasionally you will see an extended high volatility; this is the reason the for the 25% last part of the position. (I owned TVIX in Feb 2020 and sold it all once it hit +100%, it went up 11x) - I back tested this to 2016; the results were amazing. in 2021 you had 30 trades, 23 winners, a trade expectancy of 9%, and with 100% re-investment upon every trade, a 783% return if I am doing the math correctly. (rough results below) - other years had better results (2018) but still validating. (2018 returns look ridiculous) - I set buy stops above trading prices at where my signals would be met to automate the entry. - you need some real fortitude as you may take several losses in a row. -4.1, -4.1, -4.1 Again, share your thoughts and comments 2021 UVXY Trades. (Rough backtesting results) starting with 100k hypothetical) Trade Returns trade profit/loss running percentage Running total of capital 6.52% 6,520.00 6.52% $106,520.00 15.56% 16,574.51 23.09% $123,094.51 16.06% 19,768.98 42.86% $142,863.49 -4.10% -5,857.40 37.01% $137,006.09 12.82% 17,564.18 54.57% $154,570.27 14.33% 22,149.92 76.72% $176,720.19 4.00% 7,068.81 83.79% $183,788.99 -2.88% -5,293.12 78.50% $178,495.87 3.66% 6,532.95 85.03% $185,028.82 2.80% 5,180.81 90.21% $190,209.63 -4.10% -7,798.59 82.41% $182,411.03 16.76% 30,572.09 112.98% $212,983.12 -4.10% -8,732.31 104.25% $204,250.81 3.66% 7,475.58 111.73% $211,726.39 12.02% 25,449.51 137.18% $237,175.91 10.66% 25,282.95 162.46% $262,458.86 22.19% 58,239.62 220.70% $320,698.48 17.91% 57,437.10 278.14% $378,135.58 -1.05% -3,970.42 274.17% $374,165.15 6.14% 22,973.74 297.14% $397,138.89 -4.10% -16,282.69 280.86% $380,856.20 22.23% 84,664.33 365.52% $465,520.53 6.22% 28,955.38 394.48% $494,475.91 6.73% 33,278.23 427.75% $527,754.14 8.80% 46,442.36 465.40% $574,196.50 11.67% 67,008.73 519.71% $641,205.23 11.23% 72,007.35 578.07% $713,212.58 10.69% 76,242.42 639.87% $789,455.00 -4.10% -32,367.66 613.63% $757,087.35 16.14% 122,193.90 712.67% $879,281.25
CBOE:VXXLong
by UnderwearMillionaire
VXX - into a trendline resistanceNotice how technical setup precedes any news? VXX pulled back into the trendline resistance yesterday with negative divergence on the 30Min TF. Next couple of days will be important to decide if we go way down or way up. Either is fine by me, but patience is needed to see the picture clearly before going too deep. Plan today: reduce size of the shorts or cut losses. Watch hourly price action around 23...if it pushes lower, start small on the longer dates SPY, QQQ calls. Risk: Daily charts for many charts are still showing bearflag signs...if there is no follow through, this would just be another dead cat bounce. need ES! to consolidate above 4450 for the chance at 4500, 4580.
CBOE:VXX
by CheelooTrader
VXX (VIX ETF) hints of increasing volatilityThe VXX is the VIX ETF and tracking it gives an idea of the VIX from a unique perspective. In the weekly chart, for most of 2021, there was a building MACD bullish divergence. Given the higher low and the rather full bullish candle on Friday, any continuation of this rally aligns price to the indicator. Inadvertently, the would be downside volatility in the equity markets to follow... The VIX, via the VXX ETF, is suggesting a plausible spike in volatility in the coming weeks.
CBOE:VXX
by Auguraltrader
1
Bounce on .5 Fibonacci ExtensionThe SPX & VXX both bounced from the .5 Fibonacci extension and retractement on daily time frames. Monday will be interesting with the Ukraine situations + Emergency FED Meeting results. I can see it going both ways unfortunately but the trend says we find a lower low. My gut tells me a no deal no info meeting through the weekend on Ukraine, and more accommodations from the fed because of Ukraine. These conditions could send the vix higher in the short term, we could finally see the sell off breadth we’ve been waiting for to call the bottom. Engulfments everywhere on the weekly’s charts look terrible. And the setup looks bullish to me on the VXX.
CBOE:VXX
by backupthetruck9000
Volatility Trading With The Composite Leading IndicatorThe composite leading indicator is produced by the OECD. It is an index of components that pertain to each country and is considered a leading indicator of near-future economic performance. The components for the CLI are: Component Series (Unit) Source Work started for dwellings sa (number) Net new orders - durable goods sa (USD) Share prices: NYSE composite (2015=100) Consumer - Confidence indicator sa (normal = 100) Weekly hours worked: manufacturing sa (hours) Manufacturing - Industrial confidence indicator (% balance) Spread of interest rates (% p.a.) In this piece, we will look specifically at the CLI for the USA. However, I think it will work for most countries ultimately. I consider you can use the CLI to accurately forecast slowdowns and volatility in US markets and sometimes outright recessions and crashes. I have overlaid the CLI (the blue waves) with US recessions (red blocks) and added a 20 month SMA to it. I have also added in dotted orange bands points where CLI takes out its own MA and moves below it which I consider being a "buy vol" signal. To be clear, these dotted bands are not necessarily recessions , just slowdowns denoted by the composite leading indicator/MA tool. This does not mean however that they are not potentially good volatility trades (as we shall see). We can see that out of 14 slowdowns and economic recessions. The CLI/MA has a very good success rate if we view it as a "buy" indicator for the VIX . The buy points denoted by the orange dotted bands are: 1st May 1993 Was followed by a small VIX spike in 1994. A small win could have been achieved by buying vix at $12 and selling for $19 one month later returning over 50%. 21st December 1994 A longer-term hold. Buy signal triggered at around $12.50 and a hold would have been necessary. The positions started generating serious returns in 1996 and maxed out at around $32 in 1997 returning over 150% over 2 years. 1st May 1998 Buy signal was generated at around the $20 mark. This would have returned 100% gains just 3 months later during the VIX spike to over $43. 1st June 2000 Buy signal generated at the $21 mark. This was shortly before the dotcom bubble burst and this would have been a 1.5 year hold generating around 50% return when closed at the onset of the dotcom crisis or could have been held for a return above 90% in 2001 or well over 100% in 2002. 1st March 2002 An interesting dip on the VIX was called by the indicator here. Not sure if just a coincidence or not but it does look suspiciously neat-and-tidy. This triggered at $17.97 and then returned over 100% just a few months later in September of the same year equating to a 5-month hodl. - 1st Feb 2005 Peak of the post-2000 credit cycle. This trade was a hold. Indicator triggered at 12.01 and the best selling position was 2 years later in July 2007. Returning just under 100% or could have been held to generate bigger returns when the credit crunch kicked in during 2007 and the primary crash occurred during 2008. 1st November 2007 This is obviously the peak of the market for the housing bubble bull-run. The indicator triggered at $20.15 and the ensuing VIX spike maxed out at around $58 returning nearly 300% if the trade was closed one year later. 1st June 2011 A very close to the edge trade which triggered during the double-dip recession in the Eurozone. This is one of the less-good entries with a price of around $25. However, it is very very short term with VIX peaking at $42 over just a few months returning over 75%. 1st March 2015 The indicator triggers on around 1st of March of this year at around the $14 mark and is another medium-term trade with vix peaking at 28 just a matter of months later returning just under 100% as the onset of the Brexit/US Trade War grips market. 1st August 2018 Jitters are evident in CLI as far back as 2018 when the indicator fired and returned a buy price of £13.04. This could have been held for a short-term trade turning over 70% within a matter of months or held longer until the COVID pandemic in 2020 which I consider to have been one of the root causes for the VIX becoming elevated during this time. The longer-term hold would have returned over 400%. As such, you can see that the crossovers between the CLI signal and the MA on a monthly chart usually preceded volatility bull markets, very serious short-term vix spikes and sometimes even outright recessions. There are a couple of points to bear in mind here. Signals sometimes appear up to a year before the "event". That's the whole purpose of this indicator. So in other words, you may have to be prepared to hold. As such, ETF decay which is inherent to instruments like UVXY must be factored in. This strategy is therefore more suited to de facto VIX rather than any of it's leveraged ETF variants. There are a couple of so-called "false positives" with respect to this indicator calling an "event" very far ahead. For instance, in 2005 it gave a "buy signal" for volatility. This isn't necessarily "wrong" per se, because face it, you'd have been dumping your equities and taking on vol nearly at the very top of the market here. As such there is SOMETIMES ample opportunity to "buy n hold n accumulate". That's another reason why leveraged volatility may not always be suitable per se due to the fact of leveraged ETF decay. On the other hand, there are some short-term opportunities here which are denominated in terms of only months . Leveraged products may be more suited to these. I believe that we must exercise judgement if we are to implement this strategy and to judge the relative position of our entries relative to the market when choosing what instruments to employ to benefit from volatility spikes. I believe this does demonstrate the validity of using CLI and other macroeconomic indicators for volatility investing.
FRED:USALOLITONOSTSAM
by RogueEconomics
3
VIX - Daily Range for Continuous ContractGiven the VX Complex has asserted a Positive Weekly Trend for the First time since the Roswell Crash (4/5 LT Structure) - the ST Structure indicates more to come for IT 4/5. ________________________________________________________________ % Contango M1 @ 3.66% M2 @ 1.74% M3 @ 0.78% M4 @ 0.12% M5 @ 1.51% M6 @ -0.38% M7 @ 0.57% _________________________________________________________________ As long as the 50 SMA is holding on both the Daily, but far more importantly on the Hourly - the VXG has game into ROll/Settle. New highs should remain the Trade into March. __________________________________________________________________ VVIX has performed extremely well for VX Leading Indications.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
VIX - VXG Daily 2021 Weekly Trend extends to 2022That TRend is Higher into March. How it unfolds, is a matter of interest to everyone with Skin in the Game at the Flamingo. Given VX Crush Friday is here, we see how the day unfolds. ______________________________________________________ It is usually after the EU Session closes the VX COmplex assault begins and accelerates into the Close. Yields will wreck the MArkets again as ZN appears to be heading to new lows. It will be extremely VOLATILE into March with wild swings in both directions. ______________________________________________________ VVIX has been a great leading Indicator.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61