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VXZ

VIX - Settlement Range for Continuous ContractSpot Vix - 22.05 VXZ - 21.45 VXF - 23.70 _________________________________________________________________ Tomorrow the New Continuous Contact for the VIX will begin trading. To project Price we need to consider the VXZ / VXF Spread (Roll Yield) and use Draws for both months to determine the Point of Convergence for Price based upon Draws for both Contracts. The VXF Chart above provides the Price Objectives and lower Gap FIlls. The VIX has been trending down for some time now and may continue the trend into year-end. Clearly, this gives the ES YM RTY room to move higher. __________________________________________________________________ We indicated yesterday the RT Potential and Price Objectives above into the Gap Fills as the Lower POs were front-run by a significant Margin. The NQ kept the 615 pivot gyrating until it moved tp and through it during the 3 PM EST to 4 PM EST Hourly Bar. In the final Hour, the NQ would trade below the 615 Pivot for the last time. ES, exactly the same pattern. YM, a bit different, but close. ___________________________________________________________________ Into Wednesday's during Settlement, we will see the direction for the rest of the year's - Low Volume Price action in all probability. We traded the Lows of the Range and the A/D was sitting on Lows, it can stabilize or Rise. It remains a very Negative indication, as do all longer TF Charts. ____________________________________________________________________ RT Anticipated, RT in Trade - Gap Fill. VFX has some catching up to do on the downside. It will provide a Lift to the Indices. Momentum Cloud to Trending Cloud Supports is the Price Objectives & Gap FIlls remain lower.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
1
VIX - Daily: VXZ / VXF / VIX Spot-CashThe NQ will have the wider swings into Year-End as the Range has expanded from 150616 to 16302. The VIX may range into Year-End permitting the ES to build out the Symmetry. The NYSE Remains collared at the Lower end of the Range. VX has been compressing into Year-End. Wednesday will confirm as 96% of m1 is loaded on the CM-30 VXX. ____________________________________________ Implied Targets for VXX 35.16 to 45.36 on reversal. This implies a large and very extended decline. Donside Momentum is building, how long can they keep this collared... we' will see. I maintain we will test the Dialy 377 SMAs for the ES NQ YM RTY. It will be a 5/5 decline or should be... the Algos have been very good at breaking Candles, FIBs, and Symmetry - Far too many False moves. There are a very Large Number of Sellers overhead for the Equity Complex. VX should be relieved of the foot on its throat into the new year.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
VXF - 1 HourOver 23.60 and the VIX remains in a Bid and a Long. It has become far less technical than the Indexes. Roll to settle is creating an Arbitrage which is suppressing the VXZ VXF VXX. VX Complex collared by the Operators. VXF continues to struggle at Cloud Momentum. ______________________________________________ 4X Expiry and enormous Ranges on each Index. Price is moving into the Lower end of the October Range. DX Weakness may provide the sport for the Equity Complex to produce a Counter-Trend off their Lows. _________________________________________________ We closed : NQ @ 735 ES @ 635 CASH @ 100%
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
VXX - Abandoned Ship2.14 P/C at present which should peak near 2.24. Many Traders believe the FED will Punt. We do not. The VIX itself, being left for dead during a rollover. Meanwhile, CALLs are selling at 354% to 427% prem to PUTs. ____________________________________________ INdices are rallying, as they do ahead of the FED. Money Flows are positive into Equities, into Protection we are back to extremely negative. Captial continues to Slosh around while Executives at the 7 continue to Sell Shares - MSFT is a solid example where One ETM sold 50% of their shares. _____________________________________________ The Weekly Charts remain our point of reference for rejection, were it to expand the Channel, then it is an entirely different conversation. An over-throw is possible. ______________________________________________ As Divergences continue to build on the Larger TFs we will Observe the Weekly UTL. _____________________________________________ What is fragile does not prefer disorder or random. It seeks stability and predictability. The fragile is damaged by infrequent events. In particular, when they become increasingly frequent. INcreasing Amplitudes within increasing Frequency, are a warning. Events Unknown, unseen, unaccounted...
CBOE:VXX
by HK_L61
VXF - Roll M1/V1 VXZ into next WednesdayThere are complications into next week. In order to avoid the Dramas associated with these opposing forces - permit me to infer the extremes have never quite been this degree of a Cluster F_ck. Fail on Drama, apologies _____________________________________________________________________ An "offsides trade" is again forming as I see 4X Negative Divergences begin to Form once again on Larger Daily and Weekly Timeframes. Delta is being hedged - simply not in a way most are paying attention to... typical and opportunity. ______________________________________________________________________ I am seeing 2 very distinct patterns within the Delta Squaring. Both create immense Risk of what should be referred to as the Cascade Trade. The over/under will depend on how aggressive the Operators become today, should they be unable to unwilling to support Price today, it is a very large Negative Omen. There exists a Protection Trade well below and not above. ________________________________________________________________________ \We will begin to see which way this breaks shortly - Roll/Settle remains ahead. Within the Pivot, whichever way it breaks ST will reinforce the Trend.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
4
VXI - VXZAPEX Key - Protection remains Bid out to January 2022. It can Pullback today or tomorrow. It will depend on whether the Indies begin to converge on Lower POs below, by example, the NQ can drop 300+ Points today... No rush, patience wins here. Entries will be provided. _______________________________________________ Sobering up underway - Rehab T4ades are crushing the Memes. Our dear Ape friends... AMC sub 30, was early on it breaking down but not in doubt. The critical issue is when Oil slows its decline as Food Producers have already put planned prices of 20 to 22.5% in Q1 Food Prices. When this hits... they had best have Trillions to dole out... Or Political unrest is all but assured.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
1
VIX Daily - 2021 Lows to HighsWhat is encouraging after Sunday GLOBEX: The VIX exceeded the 50% of 2021 and although it did not make a new high against the Prior Spike High On a Percentage Basis it was the 4th Largest Percentage Spike The Prior Spike did NOT. _________________________________________________________ Use the VIX Pullback for RT Targets for ES YM RTY. VXN for NQ. VIX Range for Today 22.30 - 25.15 with 23.40 as the Pivot *** 22.50 is the LIS. _________________________________________________________ With Powell speaking late today the Operators will no doubt pull out the stops to make the Re-Anointed Chair appear Gilded. Long week ahead as this develops. Large Gap Below on VIX.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
4
VIX - (VXX) Settles tomorrow - VXZ @ 96% TomorrowUnfortunately, although the Spread has been cut in half, there will remain the usual Gap Fill to complete as VIX INDEX (Cash/Spot) will square Price at the end of tomorrow's Session. VXX will equal the VIX Index. _________________________________________________________ Wednesday's will show, surprise, another Gap on the Continuous Contract. The Gap will be at the 4 PM EST Closing Square Price. _________________________________________________________ UVXY Fans will not be amused once again. As the UVXY will be front-loaded in new Decay and perhaps new Lows around 13.89, should 14.46 let go. This is why the UVXY spends the majority of its time going South. Unless, of course, there is an Event, then... Katy Bar the Doors. Katy is a known Degenerate. _________________________________________________________ Time to trade the VX Complex passed last week, a Retracement did not develop, although by appearances - it did appear Probable. Wall Street taketh away. The One time a Month the Vix can go Vertical came and went. _________________________________________________________ Where does this leave us? Where else, defensive with a healthy dose of patience and Cash. _________________________________________________________ On a Positive note - An accident is very close. China's got Probs, Bigguns. Actually the "positive" would be simply a gain in Position Capital. Positive... yeah, naw. Not at all as, bad arrangements - Este es Muy Mal por Hente in Todo. _________________________________________________________ Probability favors a consolidation, but Tuesday has been ALGO Grinder day for months on end, so we shall see how Yields behave at 8 AM EST tomorrow, prior to placing any Degenerate Bets @ the Flamingo. _________________________________________________________ Today behaved as if Price is Consolidating. For What, Magic 8 Ball suggested - "Ask again later"
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
15