HTF Analysis of the Bitcoin TopHTF Analysis of the Bitcoin Top
We are currently experiencing a widening cylinder due to the capitulation of today (26/11/2021).
-The current bottom would be 48-53K.
-A third top would be put in the 87-89K zone.
-Next correction is marked to bottom around 69K.
-This bottom would signal the start of the blow-off top that reaches it high around 200K.
-A failed retest of this top is expected around 175K.
-Finally the bottom of the massive correction is 89K.
In summary from the July bottom:
29K -> 53K -> 39K -> 69K -> 49K -> 89K -> 69K -> 200K -> 175K -> 89K
W-TOP
SNAP Broadening Formation BreakoutHere we see a right angle broadening formation, with the accumulation line on the bottom.
What appears to be an island reversal pattern appeared in the daily chart, marked by the yellow rectangle, which is typical of congestion patterns like this.
Broadening formations are typical of late stage bull markets and are accompanied by irregular volume throughout.
A majority of broadening formations carry bearish implications, and a breakout occured today in SNAP, although not by the generally "safe" 3% margin.
I would expect a throwback, but the pattern implies a -65% move to the downside to 17.5, although not necessarily soon.
Broadening TopWhat Is a Broadening Formation?
A broadening formation is a price chart pattern identified by technical analysts. It is characterized by increasing price volatility and diagrammed as two diverging trend lines, one rising and one falling. It usually occurs after a significant rise, or fall, in the action of security prices. It is identified on a chart by a series of higher pivot highs and lower pivot lows.
Understanding Broadening Formations
Broadening formations occur when a market is experiencing heightened disagreement among investors over the appropriate price of a security over a short period of time. Buyers become increasingly willing to buy at higher prices, while sellers find ever more motivation to take profits. This creates a series of higher interim peaks in price and lower interim lows. When connecting these highs and lows, the trend lines form a widening pattern that looks like a megaphone or reverse symmetrical triangle.
The price may reflect the random disagreement between investors, or it may reflect a more fundamental factor. For example, many countries experience broadening formations due to heightened political risk ahead of an upcoming election. Different polling results or candidate policies may cause a market to become very bullish at some points and very bearish at other points.
Broadening Tops: Important Bull Market Results
Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 22 out of 39/28 out of 36
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 18%/27%
Average rise/decline for up/down breakouts: 42%/13%
Throwback/pullback rate: 67%/67%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 66%/42%
The above numbers are based on 1,215 samples for upward breakouts and 804 for downward breakouts.
Blow off top 4th - 14th December Takeaways:
234 days from first high to last high in 2013, will put us at 4th of December.
147 days from mid-summer dip reversal would but us at 14th of December.
Another interesting fact is that the average of both previous cycle hit of 2.272 (close to ATH) is 4th of December (2013 28 Nov/2017 12 Dec)
Also, new moons are a very reliant top indicator (often 2-3 days within tops)
ALL of the three cycles had new moons at or days within the blow-off tops.
A clear path for Bitcoin - Extending Cycles.Bitcoin is programmed math - therefore i believe trends are easier to recognize and distinguish (especially when cross referencing on-chain analytics).
Here's the LONG story short:
I measured the amount of days from the halving to the cycle top, which gave me an ~33% increase.
I then added the 33% to the 2017 cycle which equals ~707 days.
This puts Bitcoin's market cycle top for 2022 around April 18th.
The Red Box indicates the general area in which I believe Bitcoin can top out in (Jan 22 - July 22).
$250k is possible but to early to tell - on-chain gives more accurate top indications as the time nears.
As for the 350k and 500k are the price predictions from other analysis of those who I will not name.
That being said, $100k-$150k are also possible tops. How quick price accelerates nearing the end of the cycle will indicate just where we may top out in the cycle.
Currently, we're experienced a mid-cycle top at $64K - this is where i believe the floor will be during the bear market that supersedes the Blow Off Top this cycle.
The end!
let me know what you think
x
Bitcoin to Retest Support Before Topping Around 76K This CycleBitcoin to Retest Support Between 66,000-65,800 Before it’s last 5 impulse waves upwards. Topping around 72,000-78,000 This Cycle, with 74,500-76,500 being the most likely top target. This will usher in an altseason into at least a 0.702 retrace, leading into another bear market for crypto. Bitcoin will then confirm prior support at liquid zones including 10,000, 3500, & 1200. 10,000 retest for support confirmation extremely likely. 1200 hard to believe but very possible. Analysis and Prediction based on multiple fibs, Elliot wave counts, harmonic patterns etc.
100k incoming! 155 day moving average bottom and top cap modelUsing Logarithmic Regressions and the 155 day moving average as a floor... and top cap model for a max, we can see the range that BTC is bounded by. As a supply shock is hitting Bitcoin, I am expecting a break through the $100k mark by year end.
#BTC #Bitcoin #100k #LogarithmicRegression
I am NOW 95 % NET SHORT ACROSS THE INDEXES 1998 TO 2000 FRACTAL IS NEAR ENDED 18.8 to 19.7 months low to peak . I feel that the markets move also match a close 1978 to 1980 structure . . Wave 1 3 and 5 lasted 468 489 and we are now at 442 I maintain this is the ending of the bull phase from the 2192 projection . I have stated a top should be seen 4460 to 4617 focus 4607 . I have had alt targets on my data . and will be posting this sunday . after 2 pm . bull
S&P 500--Early Warning--The Top Is InEARLY WARNING. The S&P 500 hasn't closed under the daily 500 HULL for longer than one day in a row since the covid crash rebounded over the 500 HULL back in June 2020. Today marks the first two day close under the 500 HULL in over a year. This is an early call and might change if we rebound and close the week above the 500 HULL.... but right now I'm gonna say odds are good the equity market top is in. You heard it here first.
ATH in December followed by market crash.Hello everyone!
I am back with my new analysis on BTC and the market. My analysis is pointing me towards a new ATH for crypto in December or early Q1 of 2022. The price range to look out for is 120k-180k-220k. Dates & patterns will help determine the exact top. Specifically, I am looking to short and sell all my crypto around Dec 14th-Jan 14th where BTC will have reached its peak price. Markets are always changing and if anything new comes up I will update my analysis. Once BTC has reached its top it will be the beginning of a global market crash. We are already seeing massive inflation world wide with no correction in sight. Banks are hoarding cash as of now because they perceive costs to be to high to invest. Stay tuned...
LONG TERM TARGET HIT TODAY 4460 TO 4617 FOCUS 4607 I HAVE NOW MOVED TO A 100 % CASH .I am now moving to puts across the board we should now see ifthe rally was wave B UP or wave 1 of 5 within the blowoff. .I also took profits in my calls in FACEBOOK and warning all traders to take profits. BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER