The Best Odds within a Consolidated MarketEvery pattern of the market has precise areas where the probabilities can play in the most favorable way for you, if you trust the pattern (until it expires). Of course, we trust patterns... that's what we do: we drink and trust patterns .
This example on the XRPUSDT pair is a good example of this. As a day trader (or a FTT trader), your hope here would be to catch a meaningful impulse, a long movement of the price that could give you profits. If you want that, where would you place your entry?
The basic knowledge tells about "zones", but all zones are not equally safe and important in every pattern.
For example, we know that the average zone in a consolidated market (the midrange between its resistance and support) is important... but is it safe? Let's think about it:
By definition, an established market that goes sideways is bouncing between its resistance and support zones. It also tends to bounce against the midrange, of course (or, at least, it tends to struggle in that place); but normally you would expect the price to break the middle of the channel in order to reach its margins. Why? Because that's the very nature of the pattern! Duh!
If the price surpass the midrange, the pattern stays vigorous, healthy and reliable. But what happens if the price exceeds markedly the channel's resistance or support? That would be an apparent or definitive breakout of such pattern... its closure: There's no trustable pattern anymore and you must be careful because your previous analysis now belongs to the past.
This reflection is meant to warn you about one of the common mistakes we commit –perhaps because of the nature (a fault?) of our system or because of our unwise decisions–: Not waiting for the price to come up to the best spot for our entry. Not being selective enough when deciding the best settings of the market.
In my series about trading psychology I expect to delve more into this attitude of not caring too much about our best chances, which is a way of not protecting our capital –although there is also a problem in caring too much , to the point of inertia–. But, for now, let's just reflect about the significant disadvantage of placing our bets into forecasts that objectively lack the best odds within a known pattern! Surely those are not the most educated bets we are capable of... and a profitable trader is person who makes educated bets.
Waitinggame
AUDUSD..waiting zone???AUDUSD is playing in a waiting zone(loading zone)..so there is no clear scenario for that pair at that level but i have bias for short trade after confirmation after dealing with the printed critical triangle...short playing will be clear after breaking the minor 1H uptrend...be safe...
ETH USDT : Pullback to 2480 2460 levelsWelcome to a potential trade setup as a part of the "Aglogains - Daily Trade series".
We entered a scalping trade in the morning looking to scalp a few points from the market but the bears had a different idea. Unfortunately, our trade got stopped out, but booking losses are an unavoidable part of your trading system.
That is why it is so important to manage your position sizes and risk . As a general rule, I recommend not risking more than 2% of your entire portfolio on any single trade.
We are waiting for the market to take a breather after this rally and see some profit-taking and sell-off, looking for a pullback to 2480-2460 levels. This previous resistance should act as support for another upward movement.
My trade setup is possibly going to look for trading opportunities at this resistance turned support level
Will keep you posted on the progress.
Thought on Theta.. When am I bullish again?Theta once it gets rolling is incredible. We all love those 100 - 200% runs..
Wew haven't seen it come back to the 20 day EMA yet though so I would say we'll sit where we are now for at keast a week, if not break lower towards the short term trend a about 5.60
Let us test the 60K point for starters During the weekend, BTC has continously oscillated between 56-57K, with very few differences. It tested a bit the 54K value, but went quickly straight up. My hunch is that the next psychological important point is the 60K . For now, any transaction made is definitely FOMO, therefore waiting is still strongly advised. Upping the SL is a good choice, unless you've got a hefty account and capable to sustain the loss in case it changes the trend, which is currently bullish.
Waiting game on SPX.looking to see how we react to these two zones.
SPX has the tendency to go on a steady bull run and collapse.
To determine if this is the beginning of a bearish trend or just an aggressive pullback we have to see how price reacts to these zones.
Structure becomes that much more important in these situations.
ETHUSD WaitWaiting for the price to either drop to 415 major support level and see if it drops further the way it goes in metals (if that happens, I'll cry lol), or if it breaks out at 500 resistance level (point where I'll buy more ETH again).
cryptovest.com
mashable.com
Weekly:
Confidence: C (because let's wait and see)