Leading US Stocks outperform IndicesThe stock market wavered on Tuesday as the post-Fed rally ran out of steam, although small caps and leading stocks performed better than most major indices.
A mix of consumer, energy and health care leaders helped the index rise more than 1%, driven by a handful of outsize gains. Pockets of strength in software, chip, biotech, solar and internet stocks helped the Nasdaq limit its loss to 0.2%. The S&P technology sector was down 0.7% overall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a 1.2% drop.
Earnings and Fed News Influence Stock Market
Tuesday's stock market wrestled with earnings reports, economic data, remarks from Fed officials and political strife. The stock market also dealt with geopolitical risk, this time in the Far East. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's diplomatic visit to Taiwan angered Chinese leaders. Beijing, which had warned of consequences if Pelosi went ahead with her trip, sent warplanes over the Taiwan Strait and launched live-fire naval exercises.
WHAT NOW?
The overall market environment for breakout traders remains bullish, although we are not yet out of the woods. Bottoming after a bear market is a process which can take significant time.
Breakout / swing-traders should be invested by ca. 50% by now but continue to remain highly cautious. Only increase your exposure on the back of gains in your own portfolio and always stick to your stop losses.
Here is the link to our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
Wallstreet
BITCOIN OUTLOOK, 2022-2023 - Rain, before the rainbowGreetings community
As the crypto giant sets the tone and leads the pack, it is evident to see examples of 'impulse-correction-impulse', or 'drop-rally-drop'. Whilst down significantly, it is still up significantly to early adopters. It is sometimes good to remember that even with this plummet, BTC still is, and will always have the highest growth factor and ROI across any asset. This correction was inevitable and should bring smiles to faces of all - as this is not a tragedy, but rather an opportunity of a lifetime, to what is, and will continue to expand as one of, if not, THE primary currency of the world.
It is a digital world, and as consumers we need to understand Bitcoin will be to us, what Gold and Silver were to our forefathers. It is actually the primary digital commodity of the 21st century, that every being will require, to 'barter' across platforms and exchanges for other necessary tokens, in order to transact daily, as with every tomorrow, fiat currencies all over the world, evidently loses more trust, and more value due to being unable to keep up with inflation.
I have illustrated my outlook on Bitcoin for the next few months. We are clearly in corrective state despite mandatory manipulation here and there. There is no two ways about it.
Avoid FOMO, perhaps, rather watch the BTC chart as you'd binge watch a Netflix series, every night. Well, at least until Q4 2022, leading into Q1 2023.
Anticipate long positions between 10-13k.
Notes:
-Inflation & Interest
-Recession rumors
-Bear market continuation
-US/Global economy
-Safe haven of the future
-Crypto in the Metaverse
Ever heard the saying, "Fall down seven, stand up eight." That sums it up pretty well.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For July 29, 2022 Technical Analysis and Outlook
After retesting our completed Inner Index Rally 4010 and completing Inner Index Rally 4120 (As specified on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For July 1), the index is steady to going higher - Inner Index Rally 4157 and Key Res 4177. All things considered, the market will very likely retreat and retest to Mean Sup 4028.
NASDAQ OUTLOOK 2022-2023, possible reset to Wall St?Greetings community
Nasdaq, like with any asset, has two potential scenarios: long or short, however, it is crucial to identify the vast price movement, rather than to bicker about insignificant price jumps.
I have illustrated my view, clearly indicating what matters, well to me.
Below is text of the two scenarios that have most relative:
1) The price point of 12900-12950, which is a key level, a prior support and current resistance level, is either going to hold and allow for price to decline within its confined channel yielding more favorable long positions from the downside. In addition, Apple earnings are at low's matching 2015, Microsoft nears bottom, Google share split as well as formation of a potential double top should price close beneath above stated resistance 12950-12900.
2) The price pierces through and closes above the 12900-12950 level, defying equal high's or lower high's, thus yielding invalidation to set up - hence bringing a long opportunity, turning a resistance, back into support.
Live time price action and fundamentals will confirm either scenario, both, with minimal drawdown at given prices and high R:R.
Notes:
-High potential of bear market continuation through October.
-Correlation to BTC
-Inflation & Interest
-Recession rumors
If you've benefitted, enjoyed or would like more of this content, advise by liking and commenting below. Be it smaller timeframes, long or short calls. I see that analysis posted on this asset as of current is an absolute joke. Sorry, not sorry.
The FED rising rates, why DXY falling?Market participants are currently starting to get priced in with the potential for a 75 bps hike in the Fed's interest rate. This can be seen from the yield on 10-year government bonds which fell to 7.35% yesterday. Previously, the yield had perched above 7.4%. The 10-year US Treasury yield also fell to 2.76%. The yield of US debt securities has fallen quite a lot from last week's position, which had touched 3%.
At the FOMC last night, the fed said that a rate hike was a move to fight inflation. Higher interest rates work to slow down inflation by cooling off demand.
Another discussion is about "recession fears" are an exaggeration. The Fed reassures investors that don't worry about media coverage of a recession, they are really working to avoid a recession in America.
Instantly investors holding confidently put their money into US assets. Circulation of money is slightly reduced, but the value of the currency tends to strengthen. We can see investors' confidence as seen in the wall street chart recorded a significant bullish in 2 hours, while the USD tends to weaken in the short-term.
But this optimism will definitely strengthening of the USD in the long-term.
We can monitor the strengthening of the USD in early August from the labor data through the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Change, and Non Farm Employment Change/NFP.
Further upside expected on US Wall St 30 US30USD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 31620 (stop at 31219)
Our outlook is bullish. Previous resistance at 31600 now becomes support. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 31600 level.
Our profit targets will be 32781 and 33000
Resistance: 32800 / 34400 / 35600
Support: 31600 / 30400 / 29000
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US30 l DAILY l OUTLOOKMy perspective we are still in a bear market and have yet to form a bottom. On average bear market last up to a year with different levels of pullbacks.
What I see from the 4 hourly chart:
1. "MULTIPLE BOS POSITION" @ 31530 In between major S&D zone 31275 - 31735
- Touch / Breakthrough 1 - May 24, 2022 (downtrend channel broken into a retest of BOS into uptrend)
- Touch / Breakthrough 2 - June 10, 2022 ( BOS broken back into downtrend)
- Touch / RETEST 3 - June 27, 2022 ( BOS was retest and rejected to the downside)
- Touch / Retest 4 - July 8, 2022 (BOS was retest and rejected to the downside)
- Touch / Breakthrough 5 - July 19, 2022 ( BOS was broken to the upside and retested on July 2022)
2. Testing key major zone of 32100 - 32480 which has played as support and resistance in the past
3. Next major BOS area is at 32650
Don't get played by the pullback...
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For July 22, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook
After partially (July 18) fulfilling our down move, the index completed Inner Index Rally 4010. Currently, we have Mean Res 4000 in the making (Not confirmed by Trade Selecter System). However, all things considered, the market is very likely to retest Mean Sup 3829. before confirming and retesting the 4000 mark.
GOODBYE MR.SPYFrom the 10th of June to July 21 we have been trading inside an ascending channel. On the hourly chart we can see price action inside of the channel and what we see here is an ascending wedge formation which will push the price action back into a downwards spiral. MACD is crossing the signal line on the hourly to the downside along with a heavy three day streak of a green market proving a slowdown is necessary. 390 zone minimum
NYSE - SwingTrading: updated WatchlistBear market surrenders ground; Is this just another bear market rally or is something really bullish going on here?
There's really only one way to answer it earnestly. Let the market and the stocks in your own portfolio decide .
Since the latest follow-through day took hold with a Day 5 rally in higher turnover on June 24, the major averages enjoyed one of their best rallies yesterday. The Nasdaq composite rolled 3.1% higher and lifted above its fast-declining 50-day moving average for the first time in roughly four months. Small caps performed even better with the Russell 2000 (IWM) ETF rising 3.5% on Tuesday in slightly higher volume vs. Monday. IWM also retook its 50-day line in a bullish style not seen since perhaps the middle of March.
All great sign that we either have a big bear market rally or even the start of a new bull market.
Swing-Traders should have started to test the market with pilot buys a few days ago and by now be invested by 30-50%. Let the stocks in your own portfolio tell you what to do next. Apply progressive exposure - increase your expoure only on the back of gains in your own portfolio.
Here is the link to our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
All stocks on our watchlist fulfill Minervini's Trend-Template criteria and are selected using IBD's CAN SLIM criteria. Also, they all have low risk entry points. Only the best stocks make it onto our watchlists.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For July 15, 2022 Technical Analysis and Outlook
The S&P 500 market played out our down move to Mean Sup 3787 (See: S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For July 8). Currently, we have an upside momentum, and a retest of Mean Res 3912 is imminent, with a possible extended target to Mean Res 3940. Nonetheless, after that, the market will take us back to the Mean Sup 3787, completed Outer Index Dip 3728, Key Sup 3666, and very Next Outer Index Dup 3530 - this is a forward-looking mark.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For July 8, 2022 Technical Analysis and Outlook
The S&P 500 market played out our down move from Mean Res 3912 (See: S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For July 1). Currently, we have a down move target specified at Mean Sup 3787, with a possible extended target to Key Sup 3665. However, if all fails, the market will take up the Inner Index Rally 4120 - Major Key Res 4177 is also a forward-looking mark.
WOW RIGHT ONCE AGAINWe have been seeing crazy trading success lately!
SPY and the general etf and index market alone have been showing some struggle all day long. Today just market a huge double top on every time frame under the daily. This is crazy! This is confirmed by an ascending wedge pattern that looks beautiful on the hourly and 30-minute chart. If this isn't a double top, then this is a cup and handle. Half the base to the handle is 8.25 up from the peak putting our estimates at 381.87 a previous support.
GOOD LUCK BYE BYE MARKET>
WallStreet Trading: Watchlist UpdateStock Market Bounces Sharply As Oil Falls Below $100 - This is a bullish signal!
The Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 opened with losses of roughly 2% but battled back to erase most of the damage or even finish higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and closed at session highs. Energy stocks and some cyclicals suffered severe losses.
Overall, Tuesday's session was a good step in the right direction for the bulls. This is nuanced but action under the hood was constructive and the Nasdaq looks to have had an accumulation day albeit on below avg volume.
Watch out for valid Follow-Through-Days (according to IBD's definition) which would be a further bullish indication.
Here is the link to our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
Keep an eye on the sectors health technology and retailers. Many stocks in these sectors are setting up low risk entry points, or even have broken out already. These sectors might be leading the next bull market cycle.
Risk remains high in the current stock market environment so take one step after the other before you significantly increase exposure. Apply the concept of progrssive exposure and only step up if the first pilot buys are working.
WallStreet-Trading: Buysignal AJG
The stock AJG on our US watchlist just broke out of a sound base and triggered a buy signal. We are adding a 1/4 position of AJG to our US model portfolio.
All stocks on our watchlist meet the criteria according to Mark Minervini's trend template and have sound fundamental data.
US Equity Indices Decline With Treasury Yields in Midday TradingThe Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5% to 30,623.2, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% to 3,766.4 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.6% lower at 10,961.6. The energy, technology, and communication services sectors were among the worst performers, while real estate and utilities led the gainers.
US 30: Intraday Technical Analysis
The downtrend is still strong in the DOW industrial index. My idea is that the price action will take a strong dive if the inflation data is not good which is due today. My goal for today is short with short term and long term . My target is entry at 31000 and 30900 with a small layer at 30700 to avoid fomo. My target for intraday is 30500 and 30300. While in long term intraweek I am targeting 29600.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics