Wallstreet
USD/JPY: Looks like it wants to break out! - Long with 11.4R/RDear Traders all around the world!
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USD/JPY is looking bullish here as LTF is getting above OB and we got a nice set of Higher-Lows.
Therefore I'm anticipating a Long position with 11.4R/R.
WKHS Continues Higher But Can It Keep Going?With such a big run this year, can WKHS continue higher after those earnings results?
"Little known electric delivery vehicle maker Workhorse Group Inc (WKHS Stock Report) had found itself in the limelight earlier this year. We reported on this case after it became the leading contender to take over General Motors’ production facility at Lordstown. After the news came to light, thanks to United States President Donald Trump, WKHS stock soared for months as investors believed that the company could be on to something big."
Quote Source PennyStocks.com
USDJPY Ascending Trend Line BreakoutIn the hourly time frame we see price pushed up to an important level of resistance and then reject below breaking out of its respected uptrend. The Market is showing us that price can begin consolidating at the key swap level price is at right now and this breakout could be an exhaustion for the bulls before they come back in with another impulsive push up breaking our resistance or this can be a breakout, pull back and price pushes down to our key support level.
USDCAD SHORT OPPORTUNITYIn Higher Time Frames (Monthly/Weekly) this pair broke out of an ascending trend then experienced big pushes down from sellers because our Daily Resistance is at a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of that breakout impulse. My bias on the US Dollar/Canadian is to continue shorting this position if price action presents itself accordingly, my interest in this pair is the short opportunity if price breaks below our next structure level then we can find reason to enter the market with Reversal confirmation at the pull back to structure.
Bitcoin vs US Dollar, via 4-HourThis pair has broken July 28th's ascending trend line after being rejected by an area of supply. Price then bounced off the 11405 psychological level before continuing lower to the 9663 support. There has been a rejection of that support level and price is heading towards an area of supply. Right now, we see a potential bear flag. Let's see if it can reach that .50 Fib level and form a reversal candlestick pattern.
Are We Nearing The End of An Era? (Amazon & Netflix)In the last year or so, any time I've said to certain people that I thought Amazon, Apple, and other tech giants were in a bubble, they thought I was crazy. But now...I've noticed people are starting to worry. The chart looks scary. If the double-top is confirmed, and these guys break down below their December 2018 lows, we could easily see our first widespread stock market panic since 2008. Growth has stagnated, yet the job market is flourishing. Friends of mine are making six-figures right off the bat at tech companies I've never heard of, acting as glorified secretaries. Things don't add up. Where does this money come from?
Back in December, I wrote a few pieces on why I thought big tech was going to slow down. My primary feeling is that things have changed too rapidly in our every day lives for us to both biologically and psychologically cope with all this innovation. I think people are pretty satisfied with the current level of technological innovation, but they're dissatisfied in other areas (income, family, relationships, etc.). Opioid abuse is on the rise. Why do you think that is? People are lost. When everyone starts to give up and look for other routes for fulfillment, there is a point at which people will refuse to pay higher prices for things that give minimal reward. That's not to say that I don't think there will be more innovation. I just don't really see us adapting quickly to this growth. I believe things really need to slow down. When people stop desiring the newest and best thing enough to pay for it, these companies stop making money. Guess what? The growth has been so unsustainable that they cannot afford to stop making money, even for a little while. It's totally ridiculous. The proof of this is the panicky response of the FED to any sort of potential stock market worry. They're like my 11-month old kitten.
Articles keep popping up about how it's not time to panic "yet." The problem with these soothsaying excuses for journalism is that it will be too late. Even the media can't afford to lose money. No one wants a crash, because it would be devastating. But that's life! You can deny the hardships of existence all you want, but eventually things will turn bad. But hopefully, if things turn bad, they won't stay that way. Another pet peeve of mine is seeing two articles from Barron's within the SAME day: "Stocks Surge Because The Trade War May Not Be That Bad" and "Stocks Plunge Because The Trade War Is Far Worse Than We Imagined." Get it together! The trade war is not the primary cause of economic uncertainty. It's our own greed and our pathetic debt-fueled economy.
People are already starting to heavily weigh the risk/reward of staying in certain equities. People are even getting out of more speculative markets like marijuana and smaller crypto projects because they're reducing risk exposure. Yeah, maybe stocks have a liiiiitle bit of upside. But the downside? Anyone with a brain can look at the two above charts and see that there is a lot of room to fall. These are shown in linear scale to emphasize the parabolic nature of the growth we've experienced in the last decade. I picked Amazon and Netflix, because I see their business models as particularly fragile. Too big to fall? Just look at these charts. There is hardly technical support after the December lows are breached until roughly 50% down from that point. What does that tell you about the nature of the growth?
I could make an attempt to go into the real economic factors that would drive a 60-95% decline for many tech companies, but there are much more seasoned economists/analysis out there. I'm simply a guy who likes reading charts, sentiment, and particularly the psychology behind denial and delusion. Everyone's guilty of these things, including myself. That's the only way to understand it.
In my opinion:
Likelihood of sustained upside from here is less than 20%
Likelihood of extended bear market (negative 60-90 percent returns) from here is around 60% . This could even extend into the latter half of the 2020's, marking the next decade with poverty and upheaval, but hopefully resulting in some positive change.
Likelihood of a medium sized drop and then long consolidation I think is around 20%. That's only if regulatory and financial authorities figure out a solution.
If we really start to see breakdowns, I'll probably post some more short setups for some stocks, just for fun.
Netflix Bearish Targets:
230-245
130
82
46 (roughly 90% down from peak)
Amazon Bearish Targets:
1320
693
288-300 (possible bear market bottom) - Roughly 85% decline from peak.
As you can see, the potential deepest retraces for these equities are perfectly in line with previous bubble pops. We may not ever get down there, but there is substantial risk for it to happen. As for where all that money will go? Already some of it is fleeing towards precious metals and a little bit of Bitcoin. Buying property with cash is probably something people are doing as well. It'll be really interesting to see what happens.
It would be silly of me not to mention potential upside, by the way. I said I thought it was unlikely at this point (particularly due to the inability of the Dow Jones to sustain a new high above 27000), but it's perfectly possible if a magical stimulus is introduced that pumps the market with more fake money. Based on the potential double-top in the Amazon and Netflix charts above , it seems that people are no longer falling for these shenanigans, but you never know. Microsoft, for example, has blown past the potential double-top target from earlier this year (chart linked at bottom). MSFT is an outlier though. I posted a fractal analysis on the DJI a while ago. The in-depth analysis below shows that there could be more upside before the fractal potential completes, sending us into a downward spiral of uncertain depths. In this chart, you can see that the "mania" phase might have been short-lived compared with 1929. At least that would mean downside may not be as severe as the Great Depression.
This is basically me ranting my opinion. No one should take this as financial advice. These are purely my thoughts on the current situation. Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
BRACE! Wall street (DJI) in trouble. I review some of the potential moves on DJI and probabilities (not predictions) ahead. Importantly price has violently punched down through a daily investor zone. The weekly and daily time frames create probabilities for the south on lower time frames. This is both an opportunity and risk. Have a look and get ready.
Disclaimer : As usual if you lose your own money, kindly sue yourself.
BTC/USD: 161% ROI potential - astronomical 35 R/R LongDear Trading friends!
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Aiming for 28-35R. Leg-up EQ + 12H OB. Filled at 10772 and got one more limit-order set at 10725 while using a tight Stop-Loss at 10565-10570.
A break of SL would likely lead to a $10020 - $10175 12H bullish OB retest where I would be interested in filling longs again.
4H currently forming a rejection candle.
Again, this is a low-risk/high-reward setup with a super tight Stop-Loss and I like to challenge myself trying to catch the ultimate bottom.
EURUSD HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN!!!Price Action (Technical Analysis): After a successful breakout of the head and shoulder pattern we find ourselves in a very volatile area with
#1 Price retesting Daily Head and Shoulder Neckline
#2 Price Retracing to Neckline Structure is also the Downtrend 61.*% Fibonacci Retracement
#3 Downtrend Confluence
#4 Long wicks in the Daily time frame and closes below retracement level
waiting for candlestick confirmation....
Fundamental Analysis: None.
US30 SHORT OPPORTUNITY!!Price Action (Technical Analysis): Dropping into Hourly Time-frames, we do have Bearish Confluence in the Dirty30. My interest is speculating price action leading towards a potential breakout of the ascending channel. Market pushed up to our Key Fibonacci Level giving us a hint to look for Structure or Trend Breakouts to then short price. All eyes on the Dow!
Fundamental Analysis: None.
XRP vs. USD counter trend trade, via 1-hour chartPrice broke through previous demand, pushing it down towards the 0.30580 support line, retested and broke lower towards a key level of support of 0.29030. Price rejected that support level, pushed up and bounced off previous resistance of 0.30580. Price rejected support for the second time creating a double bottom and looks like it wants to break above previous structure resistance. Let's see if it can go back into that area of supply.