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Brent - Oil waiting for a new war?!Brent oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions. In case of a valid failure of the downward trend line, we can witness the continuation of this upward trend. Senior Russian lawmakers have warned that Washington’s decision to allow Kyiv to launch deep strikes into Russia using American long-range missiles will escalate the conflict in Ukraine and could lead to World War III. Vladimir Dzhabarov, the first deputy chairman of the Russian upper house’s foreign affairs committee, stated that Moscow’s response would be immediate. Speaking to the state-run TASS news agency, he remarked, “This is a significant step toward the start of World War III.” Russia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that its missile defense systems had intercepted five out of six missiles fired. According to the RIA news agency, debris from one of the missiles, part of the U.S. Army’s ATACMS tactical missile system, landed near a military facility in the Bryansk region. Interfax news agency also reported that the attack on Bryansk was confirmed and attributed to Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s border regions using ATACMS missiles as a clear message of escalating tensions. He also noted that President Vladimir Putin had previously issued warnings about such actions. Mike Waltz, a congressman from Florida, stated on November 18 that the Biden administration’s decision represents another step up the escalation ladder, with no clear end goal in sight. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. warned on X that this move risks sparking “World War III,” echoing Kremlin warnings. Former President Trump has yet to outline a specific plan for ending the war, raising concerns that he might pressure Ukraine into accepting an unfavorable agreement with Russia. In other developments, Francisco Blanch, a commodities strategist at Bank of America, noted that Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs to boost U.S. manufacturing and create jobs could lower commodity prices. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he remarked, “Trump’s priority is the U.S. economy.” Trump has proposed a 20% tariff on all foreign goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Experts warn that such a strategy could lead to inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has halted issuing LNG export licenses to countries without free trade agreements with the U.S., citing the need to study the environmental, economic, and national security impacts of such exports. Additionally, a report reveals that BP’s ambitious efforts five years ago to transform from an oil company to a low-carbon energy business have been reversed. BP is now focusing on reclaiming its position as an oil and gas giant, addressing investor concerns over future profitability. Competitors like Shell and Equinor have similarly scaled back their green energy plans due to the energy shock from the Ukraine war and the declining profitability of renewable projects. BP CEO Murray Auchincloss plans to invest billions in new oil and gas projects in the Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East while slowing down its low-carbon operations. The company has halted 18 initial hydrogen projects and announced plans to sell off wind and solar operations. Both BP and its competitors continue to invest in low-carbon energy but are focusing more on quickly profitable sectors like biofuels. Offshore wind and hydrogen projects that have already commenced will proceed, with additional investments considered only if competitive returns are assured.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
German 10 year bund (yield chart) giant HS patternGerman 10 year bund keeps scaling. Price action is reflected on the charts. On the long term, seems like the german 10 year bund is building a huge Head and Shoulders pattern. That would be consistent with rates going down in the eurozone. But… if the German bund should spike over 2.50%, that would probably mean that euro rate cuts will be on hold for longer than expected. IMO, it’s all about geopolitics, as it’s also related to oil/natural gas supply from the east, commercial war with the USA, China and India, etc. all of them are inflationary and would also be pushing government spending to the upside on military and defense systems, detracting investment capacity from the private sectors… All to be seen in coming weeks… any insights you would like to share about the topic, please let me know!
TVC:EU10Y
by j_arrieta
Gold Approaches Key Resistance at 2,731: Bullish or Pullback?GOLD The price is approaching a key resistance area at 2,731. If the price breaks and closes above this resistance, the next target is 2,753, indicating a bullish continuation. However, failure to break through may lead to a pullback towards the support correction zone around 2,710–2,697. Further decline could extend to the support zone near 2,685. The current trend is bullish, but a rejection at the 2,731 level could trigger a correction before any further upward movement. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2731 Resistance Levels: 2753, 2765, 2775 Support Levels: 2720, 2710, 2697 Trend Outlook: Bearish: By stability Below 2731 Bullish: Above 2732 Previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
safe-haven play :USD vs. NZDIn several of my previous analyses, I mentioned the state of the Forex market due to geopolitical tensions . As a result, we are witnessing an increase in safe-haven currencies like USD compared to riskier currencies such as AUD and NZD. Therefore, by following proper risk management principles, you can open short positions on this currency pair. Additionally, from a technical perspective, after breaking down the ascending channel, the price has formed the first wave of Elliott and, after its correction, has completed the second wave. In the most recent candle, it has entered the third impulsive wave. Target 1: 0.59750 Target 2: 0.58626 Stop Loss: 0.61010
Short
by habib75rajabi
BTCUSD Shortas Israel and Iran War is on heads so due to undone Retaliatory decision of I-S-R-A-E-L BTC is stuck in a range but technically i am seeing a drop in the price of BTCUSD as BTC can fall to its daily Support level On Weekly to Daily its in Bullish but in H4 to H1 it seems to be Bearish so i am bearish on current moment if Geopolitical tension overcomes to increases we can any unexpected move on the pair but still we are Bearish over the pair to its Daily support level
Short
by Wakeel_Saab
Crude Oil Technical Analysis - October OutlookCrude oil is showing a notable recovery from its recent lows, currently trading around the $72 mark. A few key observations based on the price action and indicators: Price Pattern and Trend: The chart shows a classic descending wedge pattern, which signals a potential bullish reversal. The breakout from the wedge is accompanied by a price surge above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a short-term trend change. Key Support Levels: Immediate Support : Around $70.64, marked by the breakout level. Strong Support : At $68.23, where significant buying interest has been observed in the past, reinforced by a bullish consolidation zone. Resistance Levels: First Resistance: $72.11, which has been tested, with potential room for the price to move higher if momentum sustains. Critical Resistance : $77.23, which coincides with a strong historical supply zone. A close above this level would signal further bullish momentum . Volume Profile Insight: A noticeable shift in the volume profile near the $70 mark suggests accumulation by institutional investors, hinting that buyers are stepping in to defend this level. RSI Indicator : The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back from oversold levels and is now showing early signs of positive divergence, supporting the case for an upward move. Geopolitical Factors: With rising tensions in the Middle East, as highlighted in the annotation, traders and investors are pricing in potential supply disruptions, contributing to the recent spike in oil prices. Conclusion: Oil prices may continue to rise in the short term, with $72.11 being a key level to watch. If sustained above this, the next target would be $77.23. However, if prices fall back below $70, we could see a retest of support at $68.23. Given the geopolitical uncertainty, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility.
TVC:USOILLong
by AngshumanSaikia
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices? Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply. Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport. At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets. USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel. If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel. On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DCFX-TA
BITCOIN ONCE MORE ON THE RISE!!Hello and welcome back friends i have some exciting cooks for the next crypto PUSH of 2025. Bitcoin is looking great despite the world events which is nothing more than a reason to set up bitcoin for its spring to the upside. After a war there's always profits once it resolves. Indicator (1). Donald T. Speculation if he wins it will push crypto, he is pushing a crypto narrative and wants to make the USA a BTC/Crypto Hub. Indicator (2). Banks are having innovation coming in 1-2 years through company SWIFT for adaptation of Digital Currency. Indicator (3). XRP just received greenlight for adaptation as one of DUBAI's currencies. Check your own facts so that you can correlate to this post as ive done my research to. Its just funny, as well as interesting to notice how the chart TELLS US where the market will go, and then the world events make it happen. Absolutely amazing to have conviction through these markets at these very moments we are in a bearish dip for BETTER BUYS. This baby will continue to pump thorugh 2025. Now..... For the Analaysis haha. As we can see from the chart BTC seems to have a strong floor here at the 60,000 Price range. i have it marked up by a green textile box that price has a great level of support and resistance if you notice to the left. Currently sitting on the 0.236 of our Fibbs from a swing low to swing high out look, and as the jingle goes from low to high we're looking for buys at key levels of the fibb. If she decides to dump a little further for reasons of war & fear, but as stated earlier thats actually a good thing for a higher push in economies. Black swan events despite being unfortunate bring prosperity in goods overtime. This level would be the 0.382 or price at 51,500 of BTC. this will be another VERY strong floor for BTC to quickly recover from notice the wick Monday 5 Aug. We're in for some Bullish runs team Lots of love keep yourselves well and DCA through this crypto market build your portfolios and HODL for 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IJackPips
CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar. The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now. Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel. Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan. Line graph for visualization.
Long
by SpartaBTC
2
XAUUSD | Trade idea- **Gold Price:** Gold is holding above $2,500 ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll data, having reached a high of $2,523 yesterday and currently trading around $2,517. - **US Economy Expectations:** - August Non-Farm Payroll is expected to increase by 164,000, up from 114,000 in the previous month. - Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5%, from 6.4%. - **Rate Cut Probability:** The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has decreased to 57% from 70% a week ago (CME Fed Watch Tool). - **US Dollar Index:** - Bullish outlook with minor support around 101.20/100.50. - Near-term resistance at 102/102.80. - **Gold Price Drivers:** - **Global Stock Market:** Bearish, which is positive for gold. - **US Dollar Index:** Bullish, which is negative for gold. - **US 10-Year Bond Yield:** Bearish, positive for gold. - **Technical Analysis:** - **Support:** Near-term support at $2,470; a break below targets $2,449/$2,430. - **Resistance:** Minor resistance at $2,520; a break above could lead to $2,525/$2,530.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by DCFX-TA
You Are a Puppet - How The Elite is Manipulating the MarketsWelcome back Future Demons Let me make it very clear. I’m here to help you become a better trader, and make money. I’m not a fan of Wall Street, the Elite, the big asset management companies like BlackRock, Vanguard who own most of the biggest companies in the world. They are known for manipulating the markets, to bait you in, and take advantage of you. They are ruthless. They have secret collabs with journalists around the world from big mainstream media, who will trick you with clickbait articles. But there is way more.. Also there is a big misconception, that the big American asset management companies only hold Western stocks. No, my friend. They hold Russian and Chinese stocks as well. They try to disguise it of course via shadow companies and banks. The Elite in USA, Europe, Russia and China are all "working together", and all have part in the world’s biggest companies and share the same goal. More money and more power. This is NOT a war between sides - East vs West - as they will portrait it in the mainstream media. They have and will continue to brainwash you to believe in this narrative, while they are making money, and the people are dying in war. This is in reality a war between up and down. The elite vs the people. Historically it has always been like that. The church vs the illiterate people. The Kingdom vs the peasents. And there is no difference this time. —— Why am I telling you this? We haven’t seen a bear market in 15 years, which is unheard of. We have been very close many times, but suddenly came COVID, which made the markets blossom again. The small businesses went bankrupt, while the giants made money again. After some time we saw a decline again. Russia invaded Ukraine, and USA (NATO), didn’t try to stop the war. They rejected any kind of diplomatic negotiations. Why? Obviously because they knew, that especially a proxy-war is good for the markets. All the weapons US has sold to Ukraine, made the markets recover. Then again very conveniently Israel had an excuse to use their power against Palestine, which meant more war-money, and again the market managed to recover. The recent little trick is now the 600,000 polio-vaccines UN will give to the Palestinian kids, who are suffering in Gaza. There is catch though, that many is not aware of. The polio vaccine is made by a French company Sanofi. It only takes a Google search or 2 to find out, who the biggest investor is: Dodge Cox, owned by Johnson, Wells Fargo, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and more. Last but not least, let me also state, that the AI hype lately has been the main reason the markets has increased. But with this post I just want to make it clear, that the Elite, the Deep State, whatever you want to call them, will do whatever it takes to make money. And they are ruthless. What to do now? If you are out of the markets, stay out! If you are in the markets secure profit. We have no idea how high we will go, but there is no doubt imo, that this is a huge bubble, and we will most likely soon go into a Depression like we did 100 years ago in the 1930s. War has historically always been the last instrument before a crash. Kind Regards LaPlaces Demon PS. I know that some people might disagree with my analysis, which is totally ok. What I have learnt the last 10 years trading is to follow the money. And market psychology is my biggest strength.
SP:SPXShort
by Lapl4cesDem0n
10
XAUUSD | Trade ideaDuring morning trading, the XAU/USD pair is holding around 2500.00. At the end of last week, gold demonstrated a confident upward trend. It was partly supported by expectations of the US Fed’s imminent transition to a “dovish” monetary policy cycle. Analysts have revised their estimates of a possible interest rate cut of 50 basis points, and now, its probability is no more than 28.0%. At the same time, the American regulator may adjust the value by –25 basis points at each of the three meetings scheduled this year, leading to a sharp reduction in the borrowing cost from the current 5.50%. Traders will discuss the possible steps of the financial authorities all week since the annual symposium in Jackson Hole will be held on Thursday, August 22. The representatives of the world’s central banks will speak, giving assessments of the current economic situation, as well as the timing of changes in monetary parameters. A day earlier, the US Fed will publish the minutes of the July meeting, which ended with the interest rate maintained at the current level. In addition, investors will pay attention to business activity data. The service PMI may fall from 55.0 points to 54.2 points, and the manufacturing PMI from 49.6 points to 49.4 points. Another factor supporting gold prices is the continuing risks of military conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Despite conflicting reports in the media about the Iranian authorities’ imminent response to the death of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, no active measures have been taken against official Israel so far, which, on the one hand, only increases uncertainty, preventing market participants from counting on the parties concluding a peace agreement.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DCFX-TA
1
TA35 / ISRAEL / TEL AVIV INDEXTA-35 (Tel Aviv 35 Index) Analysis: Key Dates and Potential Market Movements: 1. September 2, 2024 - Potential Trigger for Conflict: • Scenario: As we approach early September, particularly the 2nd of September, the chart suggests the potential for a significant market event. Given the current geopolitical climate in Israel, this date could coincide with an escalation in military conflict or a critical political decision. • Impact on Price: A surge in tension could lead to increased market volatility, causing the TA-35 to experience a sharp downturn as investors react to the heightened risks. • Reflection: In times of uncertainty and conflict, it is vital to seek peace and guidance from a higher power. As Psalm 46:1 reminds us, “God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble.” 2. September 5, 2024 - Continued Market Volatility: • Scenario: Just a few days later, on September 5, 2024, the market may continue to react to ongoing developments. If the conflict escalates, we could see a prolonged period of instability, impacting both the local and global markets. • Impact on Price: The TA-35 could face additional downward pressure, potentially testing support levels, as investors weigh the long-term implications of the conflict. • Reflection: As the world watches the unfolding events, let us remember to pray for peace and for the safety of all those affected by the conflict. Matthew 5:9 says, “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God.” 3. September 25, 2024 - Potential Resolution or Further Escalation: • Scenario: By late September, specifically around the 25th, there may be signs of either a de-escalation or further intensification of the conflict. This period could see significant diplomatic efforts or, conversely, an escalation that could extend the market volatility. • Impact on Price: Depending on the situation, the TA-35 might either stabilize or continue its downward trend. A resolution could lead to a recovery in the market, while further conflict could prolong the downturn. • Reflection: In the midst of turmoil, it is essential to keep faith and hope alive. As Isaiah 40:31 encourages us, “But those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint.” 4. December 10, 2024 - Market Recovery Phase: • Scenario: Looking ahead to December, the chart suggests a potential recovery phase. This could be driven by a resolution of the conflict, a stabilization of the political situation, or an easing of global tensions. • Impact on Price: If the situation improves, the TA-35 could experience a rebound, with investors regaining confidence and pushing the index higher. • Reflection: As the market begins to recover, let this serve as a reminder that even in the darkest times, there is always hope for renewal. Psalm 30:5 says, “Weeping may stay for the night, but rejoicing comes in the morning.” 5. April 6, 2025 - Long-Term Outlook: • Scenario: By April 2025, the chart indicates a potential for long-term stability and growth. This could be the result of sustained peace and economic recovery in Israel and the broader region. • Impact on Price: If the positive momentum continues, the TA-35 might reach new highs, reflecting the resilience of the market and the nation. • Reflection: As we look forward to the future, let us remain steadfast in our faith, trusting that God has a plan for peace and prosperity. Jeremiah 29:11 reminds us, “For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future.” Considerations for Investors: • Geopolitical Risks: The ongoing conflict in Israel is a significant factor that could impact market stability. Investors should stay informed and be prepared for increased volatility. • Economic and Diplomatic Developments: Any progress towards a peaceful resolution or significant diplomatic initiatives could positively influence the market. • Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, Israel’s strong economic fundamentals and innovation-driven industries could drive long-term growth. As we navigate these challenging times, how are you preparing your investment strategy? Are you considering both the risks and the opportunities that may arise in the coming months? And most importantly, how does your faith guide you in times of uncertainty?
TASE:TA35
by trushkovskiy
Rheinmetall opportunity of 25% upsideRheinmetall dipped today due to concerns of the European "far-right" (half of them centrists lmao) wanting peace with Russia in the future. This doesn't change anything for Rheinmetall though. Key facts: - Earnings grew by 21.8% over the 2023. - Earnings are forecast to grow 26.06% per year. - Revenue expected to grow 40% this year. - New deal with Continental Ag. to hire new employees to fulfill the demand. - Fair value estimated at 1100-1200 EUR per share. War scenarios: - A new conflict means growth of 5% + for each arms dealer as seen many times. - If the war in Ukraine continues, Rheinmetall gets more deals. - If the war ends, European countries will need to replenish ammunition storages, which is expected to take up to 10-15 years. Additionaly: - Both Trump and Kennedy Jr. expressed how European NATO members should start to fulfill their obligations of 2% GDP budget for army if they want the US to protect them. - Around 17-18 countries do not meet this obligation yet, most of them being customers of Rheinmetall already. - The total combined deficit of these countries sits around 44 billion USD as of 2024. Sources: www.reuters.com www.reuters.com www.ft.com simplywall.st
GETTEX:RHMLong
by rtlustymen
8
Bitcoin Could Drop to $51,000! Maybe 43,000! After a recent 20% decline to $49,000, Bitcoin is currently trading above $57,000, but it might decrease to $51,000. The key support level is $53,500. Bitcoin is again caught in a bearish technical pattern; a closing bullish channel! There are also rumors of a potential attack by Iran on Israel either tonight or tomorrow, which could drive Bitcoin down to $43,000 and cause another market downturn. However, this might potentially result in a positive divergence in the RSI. Although there is still optimism about the CME gap in the market, the risks outweigh the optimism significantly. In the current situation, if you don’t have a high risk tolerance, you might consider reducing some of your investment at this level. If you still have liquidity, you can dollar-cost average (DCA) into altcoins during potential dips.
Short
by Cryptowormshot
Look Out Below Market Trends Up This WeekWorking on very preliminary theories of where we could be based on the movement so far. Check out my last analysis from a month ago to see why I thought we were due a major market correction. Theory has us in: Supercycle 2, Cycle wave 1, Primary wave 1, Intermediate wave 2. Assuming we are in the very early stages of a large macro level wave 1 down (Cycle 1), we are likely inside the first wave (Primary 1) of that movement. We may have just completed Intermediate wave 1 down, however, the pace was so fast it may still be early in Intermediate wave 1. The wave 3 reversal indicators signaled much more than normal which means they all called the end of the impulse waves correctly, or the first group in the currently marked Minor wave 1 was inaccurate. As it is laid out now, Minor wave 2 retraced around 50% of wave 1's drop. Wave 3 extended nearly 161% of wave 1's movement. Wave 4 retraced nearly all of wave 2's movement and wave 5 extended nearly 261% of wave 3's movement. These are all close to Fibonacci movements commonly used for identifying reversals. Although Minor wave 3 as marked is short at just 12 bars long, wave 5 was 11 bars long (as marked) maintaining a wave principle on 3's length. There is enough here to consider Intermediate wave 1's movement complete. Confirmation of this theory should occur if Intermediate wave 2 sees general upward movement over the next week. Intermediate wave 1 currently measures 82 bars. 38.2% of this length is 31.324 bars, so I have rounded up to 32 bars for a premature potential length of Intermediate wave 2. As far as real world catalysts, the primary earth mover is likely in the Middle East. The world is bracing for a coordinated Iranian strike against Israel. A few articles today mentioned the Tisha B'Av which takes place on August 12-13 as a potential retaliation date. This would begin around bar 33 for Intermediate wave 2. IF we truly are in the early stages of a wave 2, a third wave with a simple common wave extension of 161.8% would place a low at 4731.93. The next normal wave 3 retracement at 261.8% would put a low at 4150. IF we are truly in a longer term major bearish cycle, 4150-4731 is a normal move here. A catalyst to get the market there could be significant unrest in the Middle East capable of not only disrupting energy supply, but shipping, manufacturing, and elevated geopolitical tensions.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
Yield CurveThe 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions have been favorable to a disaster by many measurements for some time now. Again, there are many unknown cross-currents beginning to work their way into the global economy. On top of that, the FED is raising interest rates in less than two weeks.
TVC:US10Y
by The_Arena_Trader
11