Natural Gas and the Dangers of Swing Trading Leveraged ETFsThinking that the war in Ukraine would cause the price of natural gas to surge higher over the winter, many traders got stuck on the wrong side of a trade. Natural gas futures have plunged more than 90% over the winter.
In this video, I explain that regression analysis was warning that a significant price decline was imminent in late 2022, and I explain that it is now suggesting that a bounce in natural gas prices may soon occur. This video also explains the pitfalls that many novice traders experience when trying to swing trading leveraged ETFs that employ derivatives and which undergo volatility drag over time.
Here is the link to the risk-reward / win-ratio spreadsheet that is referenced in the video.
docs.google.com
Shared with permission from @HeWhoMustNotBeNamed
Note for stats nerds: The log-linear regression channel indicator does not give negative numbers for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The indicator gives the absolute value of the Pearson correlation coefficient |r|. So if the correlation is strongly negative or strongly positive, it will appear near 1 in both cases.
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
WAR
🧯 There is WAR on Bitcoin 💣🔥I will remain Long no-matter what. That's a personal opinion that won't change.
In the video i talk news, inflation, job report today. Let me know yourthoughts.
Links:
1. Biden war on BTC miners: cointelegraph.com
2. Powell war on Bitcoin: decrypt.co
3. SEC failure to safeguard the Crypto industry which i cover earlier this week (Silvergate and FTX):
Combine the 3 and we have this: OPEN WAR! They hate it and they need the money to go elsewhere. that's their interest...not necessarily mine interest or yours.
DATA/METRICS:
NFP was positive today but unemployment rose so it evens it out. Dollar failed to rise and was a good day for Gold: www.fxstreet.com
Nobody talks about average hourly earnings report today which for me is important: 'wages inflation was lower' if I can say it in a simple way: wages cool www.ft.com
Wage price spiral avoided..Great news www.investopedia.com
As data came out, the CME revised the possibility of a 0.50% rate hike to lower: www.cmegroup.com
At the same time banks taking a beating: twitter.com
CPI next week will be HUGE! I expect lower inflation, since energy prices did not pump and wages did not rise. Hopefully next week we have good news..pray!
When Banks take a beating I like to hold Bitcoin. personal opinion and experience:
Can we revisit 18k? Yes, it's possible now
Can BTC go to zero? That also is a possibility
Will some ALTS got o zero? For sure some will!
Will some ALTS succeed? Again, for sure some will!
Do I remain Bullish on BTC? That is a personal statement and mu humble opinion.
After all i can wait.... it looks like the Feds and the US government can't.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
PS. Thank GOD i have a forex account...got saved by Gold this week. Still, very unhappy and FED up with people. Never fed up with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bear Targets in case Ukraine x Russia tensions riseUntil the rising of the tensions between Ukraine and Russia, I was bullish about Bitcoin because of the fundamentals and on chain analysis. Now that my hopes on a diplomatic solution fades as war is in fact happening, my vision tends to change to a more bearish scenario. So I made a very simple analysis based on price levels and volume and the head and shoulders figure that was upsetting me and a lot of people on the market.
My view on GBPUSD this weekHere is my tradeview on GBPUSD this week. Please apply proper risk management when taking any trade posted here. Thank you
Oil Short?! Yes thats right folks... and here's why. In this video we explain why we are now looking to take short positions in the Oil market.
TLDR:
- The fears of global supply problems from Russia/Ukraine conflict could be overplayed and that supply is able to be met by other suppliers increasing their supply within OPEC+ if Oil prices become a problem (which they already are).
- Politically high Oil prices are bad for governments so expect some action from policy makers if the price continues to rise much more (already seeing these reports now).
- Technical Analysis suggests we are entering levels of historic resistance.
- Last week (at the height of the Russia / Ukraine outbreak the Oil market sold off significantly from the current levels we are at right now.
Let me know in the comments below your own thoughts on where Oil is headed next.
Stonk-Crypto Update (#9) : The Worst May be Behind usHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Oil making it's way back to $100?oil drove to $100 due to fear of supply with Russia invading Ukraine. This is the first time oil has hit $00 since 2014, so of course it will not just bust through like we all wish it would. The market needed to correct itself first, pulling back to $90.50.on the 4hr time frame you see a fakeout of the trendline, indicating oil is going to push up some more. it is respecting the current uptrend as of right now. I see oil atleast going to $94 as of right now. I will watch the market and the news before making further decision. on smaller timeframe there is a small bullish divergence indicating a buy is coming as well.
Bitcoin is back in black. And a short word about global leaders.Bitcoin is back above our very significant black trend line. And that is bullish!
How Will the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Affect Crypto?The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused the Russian stock market to collapse (as low as 50%), taking crypto prices along for the ride in a very clear way. As the news unfolds we're likely to see more divergences in the way individual coins operate, but for now, the patterns between Russian/US stocks and crypto seem to be moving in parallel.
One thing to be wary of is that during wartime, misinformation and propaganda campaigns tend to intensify, so you need to take everything you read on the news/social media (on both sides) with a grain of salt. Some of the things to look out for to make sure you don't get misdirected during these turbulent times.
Note that while the US media has been saying how great their markets are doing right now, they're also in a precarious situation since a recession is looming just around the corner. What happens exactly, is TBD.
AND WHEN MARKETS PANIC AFTER GOING WILD!The DJI was dented significantly over night by three main events:
1. Trouble in Iran.
2. China - withdrawing some companies from the LSE
3. North Korea - powering up to cause America a headache.
There was panic selling in the middle of the night which started with the news on Iran.
Important trend lines up to 2 hourly were penetrated.
Could this be the pinprick that pops the bubble? We'll only discover - after the pop! LOL
ORBEX: US Air Strike Sends Oil and Gold UP!A US airstrike at the Bagdad airport killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani’s.
Not only this is going to increase geopolitical instability in the region but it also questions the legality of the President's decision as he acted without Congressional approval!
US-Iran relations are taking a sour turn early in the year following an “extremely dangerous” attack that could set off a war.
See how oil and gold have been affected so far and how they are likely to perform in the short-term.
Timestamps
WTI 3H 01:50
GOLD 3H 04:15
Trade safe
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
ORBEX: Syria Operations Weaken TRY, Brexit Looks Good Pre-SummitIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #USDTRY and #EURGBP #FXMinors!
Turkish Lira Under Pressure on:
- Risk of sanctions
- Launch of military operations in Syria
- Bank charges for money laundering and fraud
- Breather short-term amid US Retail Sales
Pound Higher on:
- Negotiations optimistic ahead of EU Summit
- BoJo's attempts to get deal through better than May's
- New customs border in the Irish sea; proposal
- EU likely to agree on that deal, then through parliament
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
SP500 could see 3300 by late October and here's howIn this video, I explain the basics of using Fibonacci, time application and geometry to predict the future.
TLDR: SP500 will hit 3045 and while it could reject here, it looks quite bullish and 3307 is worth betting on.
The rising wedge will break and we could see a December style dip around late April, early May 2020.
Getting to 3300 could be a slow melt up over the next few months, with a total break down in trade negotiations being a possible/likely catalyst for the break down.
BTFD will work for as long as the market believes the Fed can engineer the economy.
ARE INVESTORS PREPARING FOR WAR BREAKING OUT?What has Bitcoin and Lockheed Martin got in common? I show how both have been resistant in recent weeks to corrections in the S&P500, and one possible contributing factor. Why is any of this important? Well - war is a serious systematic risk to all traders and investors. (See disclaimer below).
Am I saying there is going to be a war? I am NOT! Am I predicting war? I am NOT !
So what I am saying is:
1. Fears of war - real war - could be one important contributing factor among several others, that drives people to put there value into a very volatile instrument such as Bitcoin. In other words investors and small people are so scared that they willing to sail very 'unpredictable seas'.
2. The gap up on Lockheed Martin at 23rd April was not closed. Price began following a parabolic curve that was resistant to the correction in the S&P500.
3. Lockheed Martin is without doubt about war. This is where the US Government will push their money when preparing for a war. Preparation for war does not mean war will happen!
4. You and I won't be told by the US Govt, ' Hey guys, we're going to war... get ready. '. These are very deep decision-making issues that happen well outside the knowledge of the public.
5. The gap up on 23rd April on LMT may be your only signal of what's possibly coming.
Previous post in April below:
FAT DISCLAIMER: This post is speculative. It is labelled 'long' only because the technical picture suggest further price advancement in the longer term based on the current 8H trend analysis. This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any other instrument. No liabilities accepted for your loss should you make decisions or feel influenced by this post. In other words, sue yourself if you lose your money.
Experience in the 'parabolic war' shared. I'll say little here. It's all in the video. Note this is a very different situation, it being parabolic.
Unconventional weapons and strategy for an unconventional war.I say this is a parabolic war!! Bitcoin taught me a lot about this. Well, I say the US30 is a parabolic situation. If they don't wanna play fair, why should I approach the market with conventional weapons?
No! This is a strange war. So - I'm not gonna play by conventional rules. I don't think that's gonna work.
Overall in trading, the issue is not winning a few battles. It is about winning the whole war. So with Wall Street (US30) I decided that they can have back what equity I've gained but they're not going to put me into a loss once I've caught the equity.
My plan is to build an equity base to fight them at their own game, if/when volatility really gets going lower down.
I'll use whatever it takes. They're not gonna categorise me as trend follower, harmonic trader, scalper etc. Why? Because I'm all of that and more. I'm like Muhammed Ali!! Amma dance around them and show them I can do this in a way they don't expect!
I'll win anyway! How? If I don't lose equity, I've won! That's it! How can I win without winning? See here .
Dow Jones Industrial Major Cycles (84 yr major, 17 yr minor)Sup all it's snoop
Today I'm talking about something I have had brewing in my mind for quite a while... Gann's cycles!
One of my heros in trading W.D. Gann was an avid tracker of natural cycles.
84 year major cycle; this is the average lifespan of a human & it is also aboutthe amount of time it takes for the planet Uranus to orbit the Sun.
17 year minor cycle; this is the age to 'maturity' from birth. A new generation of workers can enter enter the workforce full time at about this age as well.
1776+84= 1860; 1860+84=1944: 1944+84=2028
USA Founded, Civil War, WWII, ?
This idea will go on longer than I will live...
One day we will look back on this. How different the world will be then!
Remember --- 'There is no power greater than the power of love'
xoxo
sn00p
