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WAR

March 24 low thru today = bullgasmIn March 2020, the stock market melted down due to a run on securities, which started in the repo markets, dollar-funding markets, and entered every market. This was a liquidity crisis that unfolded faster than the world had ever seen before. Then, governments stabilized the markets with monetary and fiscal policy. Today, liquidity looks OK. Banks look OK. The economy bounced upward in Q2 and Q3 (although I think this was more technical due to pent up demand and stimulus). With liquidity OK, some are calling the coast clear. Liquidity is OK because governments have been able to engage in QE, essentially printing money and borrowing to stimulate their economies. But bad things can still happen to undermine confidence in currency, which would likely cause another run on the markets. Here are 3 bad things to think about: Bad Thing #1. China could invade Taiwan, calling the US alliance system into question. (Bearish USD) People want USD. Why? Because it's what people use. Why? Because it's backed by the faith of the US government. Why does that matter? Because the US government maintained what Peter Zeihan calls "the global order" or the alliance system. As a result of WWII and the Cold War, the US bribed and prodded other countries to get along as best they could. The resulted in an era of continuity that allowed trade to flourish. Everyone did business with the US and bought dollars for this. When countries did business with each other, they also used dollars. SCENARIO 1. US does nothing about China invading Taiwan. Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Australia, India, and our other partners in the region would realize they're on their own. This would signal the American abandonment of the global order. That would mean less security on the seas, less international trade and less demand for dollars. With less demand for dollars, the US Treasury wouldn't be able to print as many dollars without moving the dollar down. The consequences of QE would devalue the dollar quickly. QE would have to be reduced, and then individuals and companies would be forced to bail themselves out by going through bankruptcy or modifying loans or pumping the bakes on spending. Scenario 2. US goes to war with China over invading Taiwan. In this scenario, the US government defends the alliance system. But then has to focus on fighting a war. The economy becomes a war-driven economy, with factories producing things needed for the war. Stimulus checks - bye bye. All resources go toward crushing China. Meanwhile, the economy stagnates because anything that isn't war-driven becomes non-essential. The record levels of corporate debt (yes, the same companies on SPX), would be called into question by bond investors (great job, bank passing the risk onto the bond market due to post-2009 financial rules). That would mean a run on US debts, which would of course, mean lights out for stocks – since stocks are give last priority in a bankruptcy. Bad Thing #2. US companies become insolvent What is all of this chatter on the internet that Biden's tax plan wouldn't make much of an impact on the economy overall? In aggregate, maybe not. But when it comes to the specific companies on SPX with high debt service payments and low EBITDA, higher Taxes would suffocate earnings growth to the point of insolvency and push stock prices down. Bad Thing #3. No more debt financing There's all this talk about "low interest rates are causing investors to pour into stocks because it's the only area that will get a return." If that's the case, then why would anyone want to loan companies money? Why not just buy their stock – an action that, most of the time, results in no inflows of cash to the companies? In other words, fine – no more credit. We'll just trade your stock. And then companies will be left to figure out how to service their massive amounts of debt while figuring out how to grow revenue. They'll likely make more job cuts, which will spiral into less consumer spending and we know where that leads. The same idea applies to an inflationary scenario. If there's inflation, why should I settle for today's low bond yields? Inflation ticking up would either drive up real interest rates or dry up supply of capital for bonds. For SPX companies, many of which require massive inflows of debt financing to grow, this wouldn't help them grow earnings to say the least. There are many more bad things that are likely to happen like no stimulus before the election and then political drama dragging it out until February 2021, No Deal Brexit, CLOs (oh they're doing just fine – really?), and many more wars raging across the world that could accidentally drag superpowers into them. WWI started by an accident. In 1914, British Foreign Sec., Sir. Edward Grey, said "The Scene has never looked so calm." By the summer of 1914, Chamberlain was announcing over the radio that Britain has gone to war. It took 1 month for Europe to go from peace to all-out war.
SP:SPXShort
by Cowston
3
So when is the movie starting?According to history now is both the time for the us dollar to get dropped as world reserve currency (it has been slowly declining for a while so I would say we are right on track, but I expect it to end up accelerating and the final phase will happen). It would also seem it is soon time for a major war. And looking at the angry youth which democrats have totally lost control of (and Bernie is not trying to stop them), an angry youth that while they don't really know or understand what they are angry at sure are very angry and outraged and want a revolution. I crack up when people make Soros conspiracies. Ye he paid for some very "liberal" (liberal is really not the right word) attorneys and gave money to BLM but they're acting like he is the secret mastermind behind everything hey chill out. Big tech CEOS and executives don't have a hand in all of this maybe? And little do they know George Soros warned years ago that this big tech was a threat to democracy. Youth that were born at the wrong time and saw bailouts, super high student costs, that never read a book in their life and think George Washington is an NBA player, have basically been brainwashed (not much to brainwash, I really can't believe my eyes when I see how ignorant they are) and want socialism. Just like the youth in Venezuela a while ago and so on. The difference is our fertility rates are low, so there aren't that many impressionable young people with no experience no knowledge and an atrophied pre-frontal cortex to dictate the way the union go. The USA obviously has a problem with national security: 75% of sillicon valley employees that have a major say on the country socio-politics are foreign born! And yes, they are not patriot who would have thought? Not sure what they expected when they opened the borders very wide because "we are a country of migrants". They're going down anyway and we are reviving the silk road so that will be fun. The world domination by the USA is not going to continue. Investors are going to continue to baghold the USA, luckilly I am not a big believer of long term investing. Currencies will change but I do not think Forex will change much, I would be surprised if they went for fixed rates and floors etc, they should know better ("they" = european asian middle east central bankers). Currency pairs will trend the same way, most FX trading will continue to take place in London, with 2 other session windows in east asia (no reason for it not to be Tokyo) and an "american" session in the afternoon between L & T, if New York is run down it can be somewhere else it's irrelevant all is OTC and OT-internet. The other major group (than marxists) in the USA are "blacks". I do not think blacks that have a problem are Somalian (well except you know who), Kenyan (Obama just another manipulative politician pretending to be "one of them" and have the same issues to get votes), Nigerians etc. The blacks are the south west and west-west africans that were sold as slaves and live in ghettos and have a separate culture. West Africans travelled long distances to the savage lands in the far far east and far far west to go get slaves. The Malians and the Akkan tribes in particular have a history of trading gold slaves and kola nuts with north africans via the sahara that was a secondary trade route that led back to the arabs & the silk road because all trade roads lead to Baghdad. You have to imagine slave wholesalers back in the day sending camel caravans very far away or better ships (pretty sure they mostly used ships with slaves from the south west african coast), those were trips to far far away lands via routes that west africans knew well that took weeks. And they knew where to look to find their "merchandise". 2/3 of slaves come from this area. The rest I guess are going to be criminals (why put someone in jail when the punishment can be to be sold for a profit some of which will repay your victim some of which will go to the king), or soldiers captured in war (very small percentage), maybe sometimes minorities... Not just "muh blacks are all the same europeans came with advanced technology speedboats helicopters and nets to capture them in 1685". But well I'm not going to go in too much detail here. Here is a map of the US by myself: Maybe the USA just splits soon. I hope we get a nice bonus out of this where they ban Bitcoin to reduce competion to the usd. It always ends in massive wars. Rome, Babylon, Europe, and idk and so on. Glad that one is far from me. Permabulls crack me up "always recovers" ye cool if it takes 300 years to recover you're going to wait? Ah you are in for the really long term then cringe! The Silk Road is back! State capitalists in the far east, fascists in the middle east, and cucks in the west. Not sure how this will develop but whatever. I'll be the first to adapt and to catch price fluctuations. And short sell west NA. 🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
7
Collapse of civilization news N°18> Argentina: We WILL win the race to zero. Price goes from a straight line to zero to a sharper straight line to zero 🖨️ *********************** Argentina, that basically has been in a depression for 20 years with governments trying their hardest to help, has now a government that figured "hey what we are doing is not working, let's do more of it". Hi I'm Jarvan I'm helping. 20 years. Government intervention at its finest. Austrian economics. Closing the country to imports, trying to avoid foreign currencies, stealing the public purchasing power this magic wand is sure to... fail as usual. As long as plebes are mathematically and economically illiterate, shoot themselves in the leg while voting, this will never end. Let's go once again see that failed nation beg the IMF for money. "We are once again asking for your financial support". Kind loving Cristina Kirchner really did a great job finishing that country off. Those social programs really paid off. Ironically all of the progress made towards helping illegals is useless: They ain't coming anymore, not to that sh thole 😆. Haha and anyway each time any government tries to fix the country labor unions put their foot down because they enjoy too much living in poverty. The only thing that can fix the country now is a brutal black death that would cleanse the country from the bottom feeders. Worked for Europe, ended 1000 years of middle ages and right after it took a hit Europe became the most advanced civilization in earth history, conquered the entire world, and went to space. Heard Argentina was a great destination for sexual tourism, meet some poverty-stricken labor union worker's daughter (18) that would do anything for 5$ hahaha. Lazy & dumb people can never win. A way or another people at the top always end up winning. A comedian said "It took real talent and perseverance to bring down such a wealthy country.". Well done indeed. > The guardian: "Region belongs to Azerbaijan" - By: Azerbaijan ambassador. Washingtonpost: But Trump thought 🤡 *********************** A testament to the efficacy of the communist regime that did a great job 98 years ago. The guardian had a letter from the Azerbaijan ambassador featured. Have not seen the other side speak. The Washington Post had an article about the war "Yeye the conflict could draw Turkey and Russia in but more importantly orange man dumb" and then they link to 150 articles about Trump. They also have articles worrying about the fair place of women in the region, the issue at hand and the violent exchanges are secondary, the big question is "are the men making sure they are putting feminism first as they kill each other". Their words: "Gender action plans must be implemented in crisis zones to alleviate the suffering of women and girls". Yes perhaps while fighters fire their gun while holding their pinky up they can - in the middle of firefights - throw an eye around to make sure the women are comfortable. Make sure this war does not lead to anyone getting a bad bruise. The media has become so bad. I wonder if they are not trying to accelerate their end, get on their path to learn to code faster. Westerners don't seem to give a rats ass about the conflict. They'll care when it reaches them and interferes with their useless mundane daily cattle routines. Contrast this to the enormous importance they gave to the virus and the fear (some young people I heard showered with a mask on 😂). > France randomly just decided to fight islamic separatism. In particular no child shall avoid school brainwashing 🧟 *********************** France's president is coming with a plan to fight muslims that are not getting indoctrinated by the post-liberal global world order. Cattle! Get back in the livestock truck! The pro diversity governement has not mentionned terrorism afaik, nah what worries them is that muslims are not progressive enough. The president of the surrender country also said that there were too many muslim hoods and this was not diverse enough, the consumers shall not have their own culture and ethnicity, the consumers must be mixed with other consumers, preferably black, and turn into a homogenous group of individuals identified by numbers, then we will have reached real diversity, when every one is the same. This will age well. > Healthy opposition & criticism: president Trump has coronavirus, the opposition celebrating and wishing he dies 😷 *********************** I think establishment burgerlanders do not like Trump very much. They celebrated Trump getting rona and wished him death, on their beloved brain emptying social networks that have policies against wishing harm to others (these policies do not apply to Trump). They all loved Trump from the bottom of their hearts a few years ago lmao. "But we're on your side". Ye no one is on their side. The president that is 74 years old and obese is already out of the hospital to which he only went to to be overly cautious, after 2 days, making the empties that are terrified of the common cold look stupid once again. > France: hard prison for man that name called jews, creep that raped a girl for 10 years gets a slap on the wrist 🏳️ *********************** I think I am going to leave this sh t hole. Making a bit of money then buying a house somewhere else in Europe or North Africa. It's dangerous to live here, you could end up in jail for a little joky joke. Surrenders (the population of surrender) are messed up in the head. Wishing death on Trump gets you a medal, openly calling for the genocide of whites gets you smile, name calling jews gets you years in jail. Raping a little girl for 10 years straight gets you a 1 year suspended sentence, watching it happen 4 months suspended sentence. Stupid global world, there is nowhere to go everywhere is a mess. Maybe a small island in the pacific relax while everyone kills each other 🍹😎⛱️. I have some time to learn arab but it's such a pain I hate learning. There are .2 guns per person in France, most are old ones or shotguns. Another estimate says 32% of french own a firearm which is high it would be as much as americans (except americans own m16 and rocket launchers) Funny how everything the national socialists did here was bad but the government OF COURSE THEY DID kept around their anti gun rules. What? The french administration supports national-socialism? > 2020: Kyrgyzstan population storm presidential & parliamentary swamp building and free the ex-president 🔥 *********************** I predicted this lockdown to justify mail in votes would lead to a lot of unrest and conflict and bingo! Here is one more: the population of Kyrgyzstan peacefully protested and peacefully stormed the castle, then they peacefully liberated the ex-president. The electoral commission has cancelled the contested election result. They are draining the swamp lol. Maybe WW3 soon. Turkey has rightly pointed out that the international community 🎪 has achieved nothing in 30 years of whining and participation trophies and being nice (regarding the armenian ethnic region located inside another country thx Stalin). Stunning and diverse Los Angeles is populated by some Armenians - they are way more of them outside their country than inside - and they have taken to the street to protest the unfair media coverage. Maybe Kyrgygz are next? Wonderful brave and stunning multi cultural extremely rich in diversity West Europe, Canada, and USA are going to have a great time when the 1000 tribes they welcomed on their soil start fighting each other HAHAHA this sh t fest is going to be AMAZING ! I recommend changing your desktop wallpaper if you have not already. Look for "Burning City Backgrounds". Remember 1945 when the USA & European powers grouped and went for globalism liberalism and diversity "to make sure the dramatic events of the 20th century (caused by nationalism) never happen again". Maybe after the world recovers from a global civil war mess the governments will agree that "never again" and all become ultra nationalists and make sure all of their borders are closed "to make sure the dramatic events of the 21st century never happen again" HAHAHAHA IDIOTS!!! And then we'll make sure the "dramatic events of the 22nd century never happen again" and then we'll make sure the "dramatic events of the 23rd century never happen again" what a circus 😂♟️ 🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿
Education
by MrRenev
3
Gold Price Analysis after Trump contracts coronavirus The world is in shock after President Donald Trump tweeted that he tested positive for coronavirus. Stocks markets fell, and gold finally broke free of the correlation with equities and advanced above $1,900. The bombshell development continues grabbing the headlines and casts questions about fiscal stimulus, the elections, and other topics. As investors continue watching the latest developments, how is the precious metal positioned? Looking up, gold faces its first noteworthy cluster of resistance at $1,910, which is the meeting point of the Bollinger Band 4h-Upper, the previous daily high, the BB 15min-Upper, and other lines. The upside target is $1,928, which is the confluence of the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 2 and the PP one-week R1.
TVC:GOLD
by Ridethemacro
2
A big hungry BEAR is coming for long time - BTCUSD - all marketThinking about future, it looks not good. National debt is growing to unthinkable values. People are loosing jobs. Most markets are in a bubble and are growing faster than ever before. Oil market falls to zero. And especially, all bigger investors are selling their stocks, their realty, their companies. Why? They know, what is coming? A war? A pandemic? A real pandemic? Who knows. But, it looks not good. All market, worldwide. Include Gold and Bitcoin.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by mamiricz
Economic & Monetary news N° 14> Powell set to deliver 'profoundly consequential' historical speech in a few hours, want to avoid becoming jp 🚀 *********************** Not in any FX right now, but using my sucker broker guaranteed stop or kickout options maybe it is possible to play this on both sides? You know I think the USD will make 1 big candle then go the other direction, I have some pairs I am watching been waiting for a while. Better be ready tomorrow. "Profoundly consequential and risk-friendly move to soft inflation averaging at the Fed’s upcoming September meeting" So... alot of consequences but no move? XD Well we will see. Interested in USD reversal and/or a new trend. Also have to remember to go to forums see how many gamblers are doing "daytrading TA" with no clue what is going on, there are probably also a bunch of ideas from "experts" on tradingview ^^ ECB must be very worried they might start losing the race to 0 :) > STUDY: Signaling virtuous victimhood as Indicators of dark triad personality. We are back in the dark ages 🤦‍♂️ *********************** Who would have thought? Dark triad personalities are narcissism, machiavellianism, and psychopathy. All the finest stuff. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.gwern.net By the way if you did not know research papers are free, if there is a paywall by a site you can access the article elsewhere and as a last resort you can ask the author for it by e-mail. We wouldn't want to overwhelm them with requests, but my little finger tells me there are 3 to 4 people on the whole planet that do this. The rest of humanity is too busy believing in hoaxes, watching CNN, and so on smh. Welp, America is falling into an absolute cesspool. The middle ages are back. Let's see how fast they go from an image of advanced rich liberal country to a supersticious group of villagers straight out of the simpsons. Witch-Hunters are getting more and more mad, oh they amusingly tried to harass bikers. Did not end up well. Haha! There have been clashes between suburban population and witch hunters. Witch Hunters are acting less and less "science friendly", funny coming from people that were mocking people skeptic of climate doomsday calls and comparing them to flat-earthers and "science-deniers". Reminds me of the church. Over 1000 years ago "These pathetic pagans are supersticious idiots, come to us rather. Witches do not exist. Their culture is primitive they think garlic scares spirits away". A few centuries later "YOU ARE GUILTY OF WITCHCRAFT. BURN THE HERETIC WITCH". Mainly ugly girls struggling to get a man accusing them. All supply & demand, the male gender contains a vast amount of complete idiots, 50/50 if they'll live to 25, only recently governments prevent natural selection, that plus the millions of male illegal immigrants coming in, but for all of history until recently sucks to be a woman. #BLM. Blackmetal Lives Matter. At least with actual witch hunts there was a logical supply-demand reason... What is the reason now? Soros mad he got liquidated after Trump election? > Torn by ethnic cleansing, South Sudan ran out of FX reserves and cannot stop their currency going to zero 🐻 *********************** Their troll currency went to zero in 2016 then flatlined. Looks like another jump to zero is coming soon. The chart is not on tradingview but you can find it elsewhere easilly. I have an idea about race wars but idk it is pretty taboo so I'm in no hurry. But the race wars are starting even outside of Africa, which is by very far the most genetically diverse place on earth. Africa is going to go boom. No one will be able to deal with the refugees. Different people never manage to live together. It is how it is. They can still have good relations, each in their country or state. Dum dums can go with their heart and believe in miracles, I will go with the 100% hitrate proven and tested reality. Europe is full of muslims, but they quickly stop caring about their previous country culture, and the genetic distance between ethnic christians & muslim is non-existant, they're so close you'd think they are inbred. Should not be a huge deal. Blacks thought... It is how it is. > Greece Turkey angry at each other, world war might come soon, EU still baghodling Greece "more stimulus" 🐻 *********************** Erdogan: No compromise no concession we will never step back. NATO has ships all over the place, defending their bags in GREECEQ. Maybe we should "lend" them more money. USDTRY looks like it is ready to soon go vertical. Erdogan gave a speech at the occasion of the Turk victory over Byzantine like 1000 years ago. I piss myself when I see those, because it reminds me the "turks" are just so delusional and actually think they really are turks. What happened to the previous population? Vanished into space? Why do turks look caucasian not mongol? Why do dna tests say 45% European 40% middle eastern 15% Turk 100% delusional? 😂 People are having absolute existential crisis as cold hard evidence is adding up and going in the opposite direction of their absurd obviously false dogmas. > So one of my broker is allowing up to 1000 leverage to retail in France (AMF max is 30), via a weird option 🤔 *********************** I read the ESMA pdf a while ago and they allow this, not sure if the AMF does too, they are pretty incompetent they might have forgot, or whatever they said they just continue the ESMA rule after all. This broker has been making it hard for me to place regular trades, they force guaranteed stops and now those (not all the time but often) are 50 ATR wide something completely ridiculous. Big min orders and all too, and none on their casino options, like they really want people to go there. Those are not very transparent, I can't see what the fees really are simply, and the listing changes all the time and I have to manually calculate the underlying price and re-calculate every time they change which is all the time. They sent me a mail presenting their new "calculator" that does this, I have no seen it on the site yet maybe not live maybe hidden somewhere did not really insist. 900+ leverage... So that's a stop of 0.10%? And how much of this are spreads? I like liberty but this is just dumb. They'll always find ways to go around the system. The casino is open for business. Thank you for playing. > Airbnb struggling, launches an IPO, W Buffet adviced Brian Chesky To ‘Get Rich Slow’ (and legally I believe) 👜 *********************** Airbnb trying to take advantage of the bubble top fomo, with an IPO clearly targetted towards uneducated retail investors. Years ago Buffet adviced the CEO to go more slowly, and he slowed down operations a bit. Now that the company had the worse period ever it is time for the CEO to scam gullible investors to keep fuelling his lifestyle - er I mean it is the perfect time to launch an IPO and take his company to the next step. CNBC Jim Cramer is calling it a steal and basically saying noobs should buy. Well at least it does not sound like a complete scam as a business, they're just going to take some sucker money off their hands at the peak of the bubble.
by MrRenev
9
USOIL and the War effects.Hello, traders. In this analysis can see a big downtrend on USOIL, in this moment, the value is not having the best days, the Coronavirus effect and the comercial war between Russia and Arabia will give to us a new LL, as you can see, the structure is very bearish, so we will wait before the fall a confirmation to the entry in the value, this confirmation could be the retest in the last broken Double Bottom, so put an alarm there to get the best entry! Good luck with your operations this week, have a good risk managament and be careful with the volatility.
FX:USOILShort
by BlazeGP
OIL PRICE WAR..Saudi Arabia/U.S/russiaThis weekend Saudi Arabia dropped the oil bomb. It not only cut its forward crude price to Chinese customers by as much as $6 or $7 per barrel but is also reportedly looking to raise its daily crude output by as many as 2 million barrels per day into an already oversupplied global market. Look out below. The move by the Saudis is both a market share grab and a loud signal to Moscow that it’s done playing games. The dramatic action is in response to a contentious and ultimately failed, OPEC meeting in Austria on Friday. OPEC members laid out a proposal to further cut oil output quotas by as much as 1.5 million barrels per day. OPEC itself was aligned on the deal, but non-OPEC member Russia said “nyet,” effectively killing it. A source inside the negotiations tells me that as the two sides worked out production cut plans, in the end, the “red lines weren’t even close.” The source added that the Russians “definitely don’t want to continue to support shale” at least in part because the Rosneft sanctions were still “too raw.”
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by CeoCodes